哪个国家能引领亚洲的未来，中国还是印度

Which country will lead Asia’s future, China or India?

哪个国家能引领亚洲的未来，中国还是印度？  

QUORA网站读者评论：

Vikas R, Knowledge Seeker

As of this moment, China is better equipped and advantageous position from where China can start building and influence asia’s future.

Unlike other continents, Asia could not have been more different.

One part - china, korean peninsula, japan, taiwan, mangolia - in this part China cannot influence strong players like SK-japan-taiwan due historical conflicts and lack of trust-commitment for each other.

Second part- SG,PH, malaysia, Indonasia,thailand, combodia, myanmar, laos etc. China has strong economic-cultural and political ties with most of them. Historically Chinese spread their culture in these countries and left long lasting impact. China does not have to make efforts to maintain stronger ties in this part.

就目前来看，中国具备了更好的条件和优势，可以开始塑造和影响亚洲的未来。

与其他大陆不同的是，亚洲是非常不同的。

第一，中国大陆、朝鲜半岛、日本、台湾、蒙古，由于历史上的冲突和相互信任的缺失，中国无法影响像韩国、日本这样的实力强大的国家。

第二——新加坡、菲律宾、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、泰国、刚果、缅甸、老挝等国。历史上，中国人在这些国家传播了他们的文化，并留下了深远的影响。中国无需在这方面努力保持更牢固的关系。

Third part - west asia. India has historically better relationship with these countries. India had an interest and dependency ot cheaper oil from some of the major oil producers. In return india has provided cheap agriculture and technology-man power. Building of Gwadar economic coridore via pakistan , will provide faster and cheaper route for chinese goods to reach this part of world, and i think that china has plans to fill the market with its goods. India has already built gas pipeline from Iran via Pak, for the cheapest crude in the market being exported. This is going to be crucial battle ground for these two asian powers.

Forth - Central asia - this area being a part of old time Silk Route from China to Europe, China have been deeply connected to local economy of these countries. CHINESE companies have several large medium size deals and investments in these countries to exploit natural and human resources. India has been trying at political level to be close to these countries but it will take considerably more than that to be influencing policies and daily life in this part of world.

第三——西亚。历史上，印度与这些国家的关系更好。印度对一些主要产油国出产的廉价石油既感兴趣又有依赖性。作为回报，印度提供了廉价的农业和技术人力。通过巴基斯坦建设瓜达尔经济科瑞多，将为中国商品运抵该地区提供更快、更便宜的通路，中国计划用自己的商品填满这个市场。印度已经修建了从伊朗经由巴基斯坦的天然气管道，用于出口市场上最便宜的原油。这将是这两个亚洲大国的关键战场。

第四，中亚地区是古代中国到欧洲的丝绸之路的一部分，中国与这些国家的地方经济有着密切的联系。为了开发自然和人力资源，中国企业在这些国家进行了几笔大中型交易和投资。印度一直试图在政治层面接近这些国家，但要影响这一地区的政策和日常生活，还需付出更多的努力。

I didnt count Russia above but Russia has had closeness to both China and India. Russia had been one of the largest defense and technology provider/partner to India since pre-cold war era. But Russia never confronted China when it comes to bi-lateral conflict being happening india-china.

Summarizing, with the current status, China will continue dominating and influencing Asian Economies in coming 10–15 years. India has just started getting a push to increase its industrial output and exports with Narendra Modi govt being at helm. India has started selling defense equipements to Vietnam, infrastructure building projects in Afganistan, and various trade and technology deals with Japan and other neighbouring countries. If India continue growing with its current frowth rate of 7+% year to year, it may dominate in 10 years of time.

我上面没有提到俄罗斯，但俄罗斯与中国和印度都很亲密。自冷战爆发前至今，俄罗斯一直是印度最大的国防和技术供应商/合作伙伴之一。但当印度和中国发生双边冲突时，俄罗斯从来不会对付中国。

综上所述，以目前的形势，中国将在未来10-15年继续主导和影响亚洲经济。随着纳伦德拉•莫迪政府上台，印度开始推动提高工业产出和出口。印度已经开始向越南出售国防设备，在阿富汗的基础设施建设项目，与日本和其他邻国开展各种贸易和技术协议。如果印度继续保持每年7+%的增长率，它可能会在10年后占据主导地位。

 

Jacques Văn Khải, Fond of Foreign Affairs, relations buff

Both.

China and India are two perspective giants in Asia. Their roles here can’t be ignored and will never be ignored.

China and India take over many GDP economic developments of Asia as the international market is shifting from Europe to Asia sooner or later. As for this, they shall compete in the battle of influence between India and China.

China has big industry, India has technology - China has science, India has brilliant. Each needs perspective water and fire. China is fire, India is water.

The dragon and the Sikh are ready to take part on the clash now.

So let’s wait for it, Asia!

两者都会。

中国和印度是亚洲未来的两大巨人。他们在这里的作用不能被忽视，也永远不会被忽视。

国际市场迟早会从欧洲转移到亚洲，中国和印度带动亚洲许多国内生产总值的经济发展。因此，他们将在中印之间的影响力之战中展开竞争。

中国有大工业，印度有技术——中国有科学，印度有辉煌。彼此都需要水火。中国是火，印度是水。

龙和锡克教徒已经准备好参加冲突了。

所以，让我们拭目以待吧，亚洲!

 

Ramji Vinodh

It depends on many factors; both are large economies and will show great significance in global stage. One has to understand how tough it is develop infrastructure in a democratic economy and hence the reason why it’s taking such a long time to develop infrastructure in India.

My opinion as an Indian is to develop rural growth in India, education standards to everyone and of course access to natural resources.

In the past both has very strong civilisations and it’s very difficult to measure what the GDP was for these two countries.

In India, people say we had ancient ways of material science (Kuthubinar) and there is ancient medicine like Ayurveda. Both the question now is where the research for these areas is and is it happening in India?

In the past both these economies had lots of natural resources, as an example Diamond mines were plethora in India and that now everything is consumed or being looted by the British.

这取决于许多因素;两国都是大型经济体，都将在全球舞台上发挥重要作用。人们必须理解在敏煮经济中发展基础设施有多么困难，这也是为什么印度要花这么长时间来发展基础设施。

作为一名印度人，我的观点是大力发展印度农村，提高每个人的教育水平，当然还有获得自然资源的机会。

历史上这两个国家都有非常强大的文明，很难衡量这两个国家的GDP各是多少。

在印度，我们有古老的材料科学方法(库图比纳)，还有像阿育吠陀这样的古老医学。现在的问题是这些领域的研究在哪里，现在还存在于印度么?

历史上这两个经济体都拥有大量的自然资源，例如，印度的钻石矿数量过多，而现在，所有东西都被英国人消费或掠夺了。

Another main issue is that most of the Indians engage in R&D for foreign companies and the patent as such goes to the foreign companies. This shows high level of brain drain. As an Indian, I am able to see the growth that my country is undergoing and will eventually in the future. We are free now and people was crossed seven seas and people carry skills from India to other countries and vice versa. It definitely takes time for India because it’s democratic and bureaucratic. I used to wonder how that China Media says about grand infrastructure project more frequently in the news, that they are so fast in completing infrastructure projects. Though it’s good from a project management perspective but over capacity is something not good. My conclusion is that China and India would be like US and UK.  China doesn’t realise that economic growth should be sustainable, because sustainability is word for many corporates today.

另一个主要问题是，大多数印度人从事外国公司的研发工作，而专利就属于外国公司。这说明了人才流失的严重性。作为一名印度人，我能够看到我的国家正在经历的以及未来将最终实现的增长。我们现在很自由，人们跨越了七大洋，把技能从印度带到其他国家，反之亦然。印度肯定需要时间，因为它既敏煮又官僚。我曾好奇，中国媒体为何常地新闻中谈论大型基础设施项目，他们是如何如此迅速地完成基础设施。虽然从项目管理的角度来看这是好的，但是能力过剩是不好的。我的结论是，中国和印度将像美国和英国一样。中国没有意识到经济增长应该是可持续的，因为可持续性是当今许多企业的口号。

 

Thomas Musselman

It is like asking if Sweden or the US would do better in the 1900s. Correct answer: both.

Any given 10 year period can vary since economic policies take a while to work, and the effect of demographics can be hard to project. China’s one child policy may come back to bite it when it needs a young labor force to pay old age pensions (its labor costs are already going up and business is fleeing to cheaper countries).

India may continue to suffer from the rot of corruption, religious violence, over bureaucratization.

Or not.

Neither is likely to “lead” the world. Both may have improved living conditions and growth rates in excess of 3%, which is quite enough to be happy about.

这就像是在问瑞典或美国在20世纪会不会做得更好。正确答案:两国都会。

由于经济政策需要一段时间才能奏效，任何给定的10年周期都可能有所不同，而且人口统计的影响可能难以预测。中国的独生子女政策可能会在需要年轻劳动力支付老年养老金的时候起反作用(中国的劳动力成本已经在上升，企业正在逃往成本更低的国家)。

印度可能会继续遭受腐败、宗教暴力和官僚主义的侵蚀。

也可能不会。

两国都不太可能“引领”世界。两国都可能改善了生活条件，增长率高于3%，这都已经足够让人高兴了。

 

Haiyan Chen, Native Chinese have the most real experience of China

In fact, the future of Asia is really the United States, although it is not in asia. No Asian country should ignore the great influence of the United States in asia. I am not talking nonsense, but from a series of recent events in Asia can be seen, the United States has influence on the Asian that no countries can match.

Taiwan, the South China Sea issue, the North Korean nuclear crisis, the Middle East, behind these issues, in fact, the United States is a key role.

I think the United States will continue to lead Asia if there is no big geopolitical change in Asia.China may change some of Asia at the economic level, but still can not compete with the United states.

事实上，亚洲的未来在美国，虽然美国并不在亚洲。任何亚洲国家都不应忽视美国在亚洲的巨大影响。我不是在胡说，但是从最近发生在亚洲的一系列事件可以看出，美国对亚洲的影响是任何国家都无法比拟的。

南海问题、朝鲜核危机、中东问题，这些问题的背后，其实都是美国在发挥关键作用。

我认为，如果亚洲没有发生重大的地缘政治变化，美国将继续领导亚洲。中国可能在经济层面改变一些亚洲国家，但仍然无法与美国竞争。

 

Samved Iyer

India.

I'm not kidding.

India's growth booms at the fastest rate in the world. And foreign direct investment continues to increase in India as we grow.

India already leads South Asia. All small countries look up to us for taking a hard stand against the bully called China.

China is not a leader, please. Foreign countries must have respect for your country if you are a leader. People may be importing goods worth billions from China, but does that make China a leader?

PM Narendra Modi is among the top 5 most-followed or most-respected leaders in the world.

It is said that Asia will lead the world, and India will lead Asia. The world’s largest continent has a large burst of GDP growth and although China has a higher GDP than India, it is India which grows more due to more investment and efforts of our own.

印度。

我不是在开玩笑。

印度的经济增长速度是世界上最快的。随着我们的发展，外国直接投资在印度继续增加。

印度已经领先南亚。所有小国都尊敬我们，因为我们对“中国”这个恃强凌弱的国家采取了强硬的立场。

中国不是领导者，拜托。如果你是领导者，外国会尊重你的国家。人们可能正在从中国进口价值数十亿美元的商品，但这是否意味着中国成了领导者?

印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪跻身全球最受关注及尊敬的5位领导人之列。

据说亚洲将领导世界，印度将领导亚洲。世界上最大的大陆有着巨大的GDP增长，虽然中国的GDP比印度高，但印度的增长更多的是靠我们自己的投资和努力。

China is already losing money in Pakistan.  And this means Pakistan will become more dependent on China for development, in turn meaning that China needs to plant more money. And China will keep doing so, as it is too stupid to believe it can use Pakistan to cripple India. China is plainly jealous of India’s growth and fears that India will overtake it. China's apprehensions are crystal-clear.

More countries are interested in maintaining healthy trade relations with India. You never know how we may shock the world. India has a large population and a lot of talent. When it is brought to the helm, it does wonders and it is already happening.

India will lead because India is good. Because India has allies. Because India is respected. India manages both the US and Russia together; which other country can do this?

中国在巴基斯坦已经赔钱了。这意味着巴基斯坦的发展将更加依赖中国，反过来也意味着中国需要投入更多的钱。中国会继续这样做的，因为它太愚蠢了，不相信它可以利用巴基斯坦来削弱印度。中国显然嫉妒印度的增长，担心印度会超越它。中国的担忧非常清楚。

对和印度保持健康的贸易关系感兴趣的国家更多。你永远不知道我们会如何让世界惊艳。印度人口众多，人才济济。当印度掌舵时会创造奇迹，现在就已经开始创造奇迹了。

印度将会引领世界，因为印度是善意的。因为印度有盟友。因为印度受到尊重。印度同时跟美国和俄罗斯和谐相处；哪个国家能做到这一点?

China? If it becomes a world leader, it will cause big problems. It is already greedy for land, bullying smaller countries. There are going to be big rebellions and quite possibly, conflicts and wars.

China's economy is facing problems, presently. They may recover, but for now, they cannot. Probably they want to assert that they are powerful and they lead, so out of desperation they bully their neighbours.

India plays smart. It is taking responsibility for itself and also helping South Asia to grow, steadily stepping up its dominance.

As the time progresses, you will see yet more countries attracted to India. This would automatically make us a leader, because our word would have weight.

I would say we still lead Asia, not maybe economically but by making our country a more attractive place for other countries. And we'll soon be leading economically.

By 2050, India's economy is speculated to be around $90 trillion, number one, even larger than China’s. By then, India will truly be a global superpower and a global leader.

中国吗?如果它成为世界的领导者，将会引发大问题。中国本就对土地贪婪，欺凌弱小国家。绝对会出现大的叛乱，很有可能会导致冲突和战争。

中国经济目前正面临问题。他们可能会恢复，但目前还不能。也许他们想要宣称他们是强大的，他们在领导，所以他们在绝望中欺负他们的邻居。

印度则行事聪明。它为自己负责，也在帮助南亚发展，稳步加强其主导地位。

随着时间的推移，你会看到更多的国家被到印度吸引。这自然会使我们成为领导者，因为我们的话很有分量。

我想说，我们仍然领导着亚洲，也许不是在经济上，而是通过把我们的国家变成对其他国家更具吸引力的地方。我们很快就会在经济上领先。

据估计，到2050年，印度经济规模将达到90万亿美元左右，居世界首位，甚至超过中国。到那时，印度将真正成为一个全球超级大国和全球领袖。

 

Yamahonda

Both these two countries have great cultural background, however India is the one that’s over confident. Both of them are progressing in techonology and living conditions however China is way better than India. The comparable nations in Asia should be Japan and China. Japanese are intellegent and humble while Indias are featured with their ignorance and savagery.

这两个国家都有伟大的文化背景，但是印度是一个过度自信的国家。这两个国家在科技和生活条件上都在不断进步，但是中国的情况要比印度好得多。亚洲诸国中可相提并论的国家应该是日本和中国。日本人聪明而谦虚，而印度人则愚昧而野蛮。

 

Zhang Mengxing, Psychology Teacher at Henan Vocational College of Water Conservancy and Environment (2018-present)

If China doesn’t change, it’s development may slow down, more trouble will arise, but nothing so serious to trigger some crisis. So China probably will keep leading.

If India is able to tackle it’s own problems, it can also gain a significant increase on its development speed. But if the situation remains the same, India will have a hard time surpass China.

Anyway, no reason we can’t have more than one country to lead the economic development of a region.

如果中国不改变，它的发展进程可能会放缓，出现更多的麻烦，但尚不会严重到引发危机。因此，中国可能会继续领先。

如果印度能够解决自己的问题，它的发展速度也会显著提高。但如果情况保持不变，印度将很难超越中国。

无论如何，我们没有理由不允许一个以上的国家来领导一个地区的经济发展。

 

Pankaj Negi, Blogger (2016-present)

China will remain world biggest economy (Nominal) in 21 century follow by India, USA.

到21世纪，中国仍将是世界第一大经济体(名义上的)，其次是印度和美国。

 

Quora User

One thing is for sure, India.

India has been leading the world in poverty, slum, illiteracy and Caste system for the past thousands of years.

Surely, India will lead not just Asia, but also the world in poverty, slum, illiteracy and Caste system for another thousands of years

有一件事是肯定的，那就是印度。

在过去的几千年里，印度在贫困、贫民窟、文盲和种姓制度方面一直处于世界领先地位。

可以肯定的是，在未来的几千年里，印度不单会引领亚洲，而且会引领全球的贫困、贫民窟、文盲和种姓制度。

 

Kevin Sun, Get a bachelor degree of economics in China, and lived there for 20 years.

It depends on your standard.

In your opinion, which country is leading Asia presently?

And which country has leaded Asia in the history?

这取决于你用什么标准。

你认为哪个国家目前正领导亚洲?

历史上哪个国家曾领导了亚洲?

 

William Tang, Author; CEO at Tang Long Enterprise (2010-present)

Probably China in cooperation with the US and Russia.

可能会是中国与美国、俄罗斯联手合作。

 外文链接：https://www.quora.com/Which-country-will-lead-Asia%E2%80%99s-future-China-or-India