印网友讨论：莫迪能把印度建设成为超级大国吗

Can Narendra Modi make India a superpower?

莫迪能让印度成为超级大国吗?

 Quora读者的评论：

Vinodh Gopal, Trying to be just a Piece of Life

You remember those times when whole India worshiped Sachin Tendulkar and he was absolutely the best, an incredible sportsman, highly skilled, passionate about India and put India on the map....

Now rewind and think about those times, whether India was on the top of ODI rankings, Test rankings, did we win the World Cup, hell did we at least get into Top three performing teams in the world... None of it happened...

It took many different players slowly forming part of the team, handling different aspects of the game, development of true & genuine international performers to change our cricketing history.

In fact, it took so many years for even the Indian fans to stop worshiping Tendulkar and start worshiping brand "INDIA" (How many people turned their TV off once Sachin got out, when did it change?)

Only after there were handful of performers we managed to get to the finals once and eventually a decade later won the World Cup, not with a single star performer but a whole team of fairly good performers.

你还记得整个印度都崇拜萨钦·坦杜尔卡的时候吧，他绝对是最棒的，他是一个不可思议的运动员，技术高超，对印度充满激情，让印度名扬天下……

现在回过头来想想那段时间，印度有没有排名领先、有没有赢得世界杯、有没有进入世界前三支球队……什么都没发生……

许多不同的球员慢慢地组成了一支球队，应付不同的比赛，培养出真正的国际球员，改变了我们的板球历史。

事实上，即使是印度球迷也花了很多年才不再崇拜坦杜尔卡，开始崇拜“印度”这个概念。

在拥有少数几位出色的球员之后，我们才有机会进入决赛，并最终在10年后赢得了世界杯冠军。

The same is true for the country as well. Narendra Modi's job will be to inspire people to start participating in the country's development, that's all he can do. Unless or otherwise, many other people with same level of integrity & passion crop up in the ministry, in the states, in the local municipality, we will just be a country who made too much noise with no real substance.

We tend to forget that we are in a Democracy, we still think like a Feudalistic society hoping that there will be some Hero who will magically appear and make miracles happen (Too much of movies!!!).

when we do and when we start seeing questions on quora such as 'What I need to do to make India progress?' will be the day India will truly start it's journey.

Short answer: No... Narendra Modi cannot take India to the top but he can inspire us to get off our asses and do something.

印度这个国家也是如此。纳伦德拉·莫迪的工作是鼓励人们开始参与国家的发展，这是他所能做的。除非许多同样正直和热情的人突然出现在政府部门，在各邦，在地方自治市，否则我们就只是一个聒噪不实干的国家。

我们总是忘记我们是一个国家，我们仍然像封建社会一样思考，期盼一些英雄奇迹般地出现，让奇迹发生(电影看多了!!)

等到我们开始在QUORA上看到诸如“我需要做什么才能让印度进步?”的问题时，就是印度真正开始崛起的那一天。

我的回答很简短：不…纳伦德拉•莫迪无法带领印度登上顶峰，但他可以激励我们振作起来，做点什么。

 

Pundrik Shah, lives in India

Originally Answered: Would India become a superpower, if Modi were to rule for the next 20 years?

NO.

India cannot become a superpower even if Mr. Modi were to be PM for the next 40 years until we - the people of India - do not understand and accept that he alone can not change India.

He (being the PM of our nation) can pick up a broom and show us that there is nothing shameful in taking a broom in our hand to keep our motherland clean.

Shouldn't we help him at least by NOT littering around?

He can show his dedication towards the development of India by working for 18 hours in a day!

Can we not dedicate a small amount of time in helping the underprivileged?

He can show us that he's trying to bring back black money by bringing back Rs. 3770 crore.

Shouldn't we stop stashing away black money (income not declared for tax purposes)

His cabinet ministers (Sushma Swaraj & Suresh Prabhu - helping people using twitter) can show us the power of digital India.

Shouldn't we try to utilize this power like Mr. Imran Khan did?

Mr. Imran Khan has created 42 apps on various education subjects, these are being used by 2.5 million people, he could have easily generated money from it, but he chose to donate it to the Ministry of HRD. Saying he wants the student of India to profit.

Not NaMo, no leader can change India if we - Indians - don't accept our roles in the development.

最初的问题是：如果莫迪执政20年，印度会成为超级大国吗?

不。

印度不可能成为超级大国，即使莫迪在未来40年里一直担任印度总理，除非我们—印度人民—理解并接受，莫迪一个人无法改变印度。

他(作为我们国家的总理)可以拿起一把扫帚，告诉我们：拿起扫帚保持祖国的整洁，并没有什么可耻。

那么我们至少可以不乱丢垃圾，来帮帮他吧！

他可以每天工作18个小时，这就是他对印度发展的奉献精神!

那么我们难道就不能花一点时间来帮帮那些贫困的人吗?

他可以向我们表示他追回海外37亿7千万卢比黑钱的决心。

那么难道我们不应该停止藏匿黑钱吗?

他的内阁部长们(Sushma Swaraj & Suresh Prabhu——通过推特帮助人民)，向我们展示数字印度的力量。

那么我们不应该像伊姆兰·汗先生那样好好利用这种能力吗?

伊姆兰·汗先生创建了42个不同教育主题的应用程序，多达250万人使用这些应用程序，他本可以轻轻松松低发大财，但他选择将其捐给人力资源部。他说他希望印度学生能从中受益。

如果我们—印度人—没有扮演好我们在发展中的角色，任何领导人能无法改变印度。

 

Prasanth Valsan K, Not a Bhakt, not a Congress supporter

The Chinese started their reform in 1976. They have been the fastest growing major economy for decades. Even now, they are not a superpower. It is going to take India a very long time to become an economic power.

If by superpower, if you mean like an unchallenged military power like the US, then no. Neither China nor India is going to replace the US as the pre-eminent global military power. The reasons like in geography:

1 The US has geography in its favor. It has access to the Pacific and the Atlantic and through them, access to the biggest economies of Asia (China, Japan, South Korea etc), access to Australia, economies of Western Europe and resource rich Africa.

中国于1976年开始改革。几十年来，中国一直是增长最快的主要经济体。即使是现在，他们也还算不上超级大国。印度要成为经济强国还需要很长时间。

如果你说的超级大国是指像美国这样无可匹敌的军事力量，那我的回答是不能。中国和印度都不会取代美国成为全球军事强国。原因有地理方面的：

1.美国拥有有利的地理位置。它依临太平洋和大西洋，通过这两个大洋能连接亚洲最大的经济体(中国、日本、韩国等)，也能通往澳大利亚、西欧经济体和资源丰富的非洲。

 

2 The US has weak peripheral neighbors. The US is the only nuclear weapon state in the North and South American continents. None of its neighbours have territorial disputes with the US. Contrast this with India and China. India has to deal with Pakistan and China, two nuclear armed hostile nations. China has to deal with India, Japan, unstable nuclear armed North Korea, and Russia.The US can easily exploit these rivalries, sell arms to those countries and even establish bases in those countries. No country in the Western hemisphere is going to have a Chinese military base. The Soviets tried to put missiles in Cuba in the 60s, it almost led to WW3.

3 The home front of the US is secure, both internally and externally.... India has to deal with Kashmir, Punjab, NE movements and the Maoist insurgency. The more you are bogged down with internal problems, the less time and resources you have for external power projection.

So, unless the US does something incredibly stupid or unless an asteroid from outer space destroys the US, no country is going to replace it as the preeminent military power in the foreseeable future. India and China can become economic powers and prosperous nations, provided we do not kill each other first.

2.美国周边有弱小的邻国。美国是北美和南美大陆上唯一拥有核武器的国家。邻国与美国都不存在领土争端。与此形成对比的是印度和中国。印度必须与巴基斯坦和中国这两个拥有核武器的敌对国家打交道。中国必须与印度、日本、拥有核武器的不稳定的朝鲜和俄罗斯打交道。中国再西半球不可能拥有军事基地。苏联在60年代试图在古巴部署导弹，这几乎导致了第三次世界大战。

3.美国的国内和国外都是安全的。印度必须对付克什米尔、旁遮普邦、东北邦运动和毛派叛乱。你越是被内部问题困住，你在国际上展现实力的时间和资源就越少。

所以，除非美国做一些极其愚蠢的事情，或者来自外太空的小行星摧毁美国，否则在可预见的未来，没有一个国家能取代美国成为军事强国。只要我们不先互相残杀，印度和中国就能成为经济强国和繁荣国家。

 

Rajagopalan K Suryanarayan, Political analyst

Originally Answered: Is Narendra Modi transforming India into a superpower nation?

最初的问题是：纳伦德拉莫迪正在把印度变成一个超级大国吗?

1.Indian Military has undergone a major transformation under Modi. Within a short period of three years he has equipped our defence with equipment of latest equipment. He has also given a go ahead to manufacture equipments of cutting edge technology by foreign corporate bigwigs. He has given freehand for the army to deal with the enemies in LOC. He also has given them access to talk to him at any time regarding matters concerning the defence of the nation. He has raised the morale of our services. His singular act of conducting Surgical Strike which can be rated as par excellence has made the army and the nation proud. The recent stand offs with China on Doklam, and his firm stand has infused a sense of admiration for Modi’s leadership. Even China is afraid of proceeding further against India. If he is elected again in 2019, he will make India self sufficient in defence production and make our forces the best in the world.

2.Foreign Policies of Modi government is one of the best. His neighbors first policy by developing cordial relations with our neighborhood has resulted in good to cordial relations with Burma, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka. Though the relationship with Pakistan and China is not so cordial. Modi has established very good friendly relationships with all major and minor powers both economically and militarily. The diplomacy of India is at its peak now.

1.在莫迪的领导下，印度军队经历了重大变革。在短短的三年时间里，他为我们的国防装备了最新的武器。他还批准了外国企业巨头生产尖端技术设备的计划。他放手让军队对付实际控制线上的敌人。他还允许他们在任何时候同他讨论有关保卫国家的问题。他提高了我们军队的士气。他进行外科手术式打击的行动非常优秀，这使军队和国家感到自豪。最近与中国在洞朗问题上的对峙，以及他坚定的立场，都让人民对莫迪领导能力产生了钦佩之情。甚至中国也怕对印度采取进一步行动。如果他在2019年能再次当选，他将使印度国防自力更生，并使我们的军队成为世界上最优秀的军队。

2.莫迪政府的外交政策是最好的政策之一。他的邻国优先政策能发展同我们邻国的友好关系，我们跟缅甸、孟加拉国、阿富汗、不丹、尼泊尔、斯里兰卡等国建立了友好关系。莫迪在经济和军事上与所有大国和小国建立了非常好的友好关系。印度的外交现在正处于鼎盛时期。

3.Economically India is in a sweet spot. Over the last three by ears of his vtenure, Modi has given a GDP growth which of 7.3% in 2015, 7.6% in 2016 and 7.4% in 2017 which is highest for any major economy. The stock exchange is showing growth with sensex and nifty registering a new peak. The inflation is lowest hovering around 4.5%. Export is showing positive growth in the last quarter of last year. Indian currency is hardening against US dollar. India recieved Foreign Direct Investments of $63 billion in 2015-16, and $60.01 billion in 2016-17 which Nissan highest for any country including China and US. All economic indicators are showing positive results which clearly elicits that India is on a right track. Also to be noted is his inclusive economy by bringing 28 crore poor by opening bank accounts for them.

4.Infrastructure development has attained greater speed under Modi government. Road construction which was six Kms per day has picked up speed to 23 Kms., per day. The Railways has undergone a sea change in its working, increased speed of the trains, it's infrastructure with great modification in the style of the coaches, the bio toilets, solar powered trains, cleanliness of the stations, trains etc. The smart city concept which is picking speed and acceptance among the public are some of the infrastructural programs not Modi.

5.Narendra Modi is definitely transforming the nation for the better. All the activities are going on a fast b feverish pitch. Once these are realized India is sure to become a power b to recon with.

3.经济上，印度正处于一个最佳状态。在莫迪任期的最后三年里，GDP增长速度分别是2015年的7.3%、2016年的7.6%和2017年的7.4%，是所有主要经济体中增长率最高的。随着sensex指数和nifty指数再创新高，证券交易所正在显示增长势头。通货膨胀率最低，在4.5%左右徘徊。去年最后一个季度出口呈现出正增长。印度货币对美元正在走强。2015年至2016年，印度获得了630亿美元的外国直接投资，2016年至2017年获得了601亿美元的外国直接投资，这是日产汽车在包括中国和美国在内的所有国家的最高投资。所有经济指标都显示出积极的结果，这显然表明印度正走在正确的道路上。同样值得注意的是，他的包容性经济还为2.8亿贫困人口开设了银行账户。

4.莫迪政府领导下，基础设施建设加快发展。道路建设速度已从每天6公里增加到23公里。铁路的运行方式、速度、基础设施等方面都发生了翻天覆地的变化，客车、生物厕所、太阳能火车、车站清洁度、火车等方面都有了很大的改进。

5.纳伦德拉莫迪无疑正在让印度变得更好。所有的经济活动都在快速地进行着。只要这些都实现了，印度一定会成为经济强国。

 

Kaushal Piruka, Independent Writer at Self-Employment (2013-present)

Yes, he definitely can.

I can support my answer by telling how his team has already started.

Piyush Goyal, Minister of State with Independent Charge for Power, Coal, New, and Renewable Energy

He recently launched the Grameen Vidyutikaran Android app, which lets anyone track the progress in the field of rural electrification in India through a real-time dashboard.

The dashboard presents the total number of un-electrified villages, and details the status of the un-electrified villages and the work in progress – whether they’ve been surveyed, or if work has yet to start.

Can you imagine a minister saying hold us accountable?

Smriti Irani, Human Resource Development minister

In line with the Modi government’s Digital India initiative, the HRD minister has launched a number of mobile apps and web-based platforms allowing students to access study material online, and parents to keep a track of the performance and attendance of their children. She has also launched initiatives like website ‘E-pathshala’ and Saransh.

是的，他肯定能。

负责电力、煤炭、新能源和可再生能源的国务部长皮尤什·戈亚尔最近推出了Grameen Vidyutikaran Android应用程序，任何人都可以通过实时仪表盘跟踪印度农村电气化领域的进展。

仪表板显示了未通电村庄的总数，并详细显示了未通电村庄的状况和正在进行的工作。

人力资源开发部长Smriti Irani

根据莫迪政府的“数字印度”计划，人力资源和社会发展部部长发布了一系列移动应用程序和基于网络的平台，让学生在线学习，让家长跟进孩子的表现和出勤率。她还推出了“E-pathshala”和“Saransh”等网站。

 

General (Retd) V K Singh, Minister of State for External Affairs

Like a true soldier, the minister successfully led a rescue operation for the evacuation of stranded Indians in Yemen.

"I salute General V.K. Singh. Can you imagine? Bombardment is going on in Yemen 24-hours; everybody is out to kill each other and we, after talking to so many countries, manage to stop this mayhem for two hours to evacuate as many Indians as possible. It is not a small task,” PM Modi had said.

India’s successful evacuation of its citizens from war-torn Yemen also received global accolades.

Following it, around 26 countries including the US, France, Germany, Egypt, Singapore, Iraq and Lebanon, sought the Indian government’s assistance in the rescue efforts.

There were also reports that suggest Mr Singh was in Indonesia right before the arrest of Chhota Rajan. If reports are to be believed, he has played a role in the arrest.

印度外交国务部长辛格将军

像一个真正的士兵一样，这位部长成功地领导了一场撤离困在也门的印度人的救援行动。

莫迪总理称：“我向辛格将军致敬。你能想象吗？也门正在经历24小时的轰炸；每个人都在互相残杀，在与这么多国家交谈之后，我们设法让这场骚乱暂停2个小时，尽可能多地撤离印度人。这可不是一项小任务。”

印度成功地将其公民从饱受战争蹂躏的也门撤离，受到了全球的赞扬。

随后，包括美国、法国、德国、埃及、新加坡、伊拉克和黎巴嫩在内的26个国家向印度政府寻求援助。

还有报道称，恰塔•拉詹被捕之前，辛格就在印尼。如果报道属实，他在这次逮捕中也发挥了作用。

 

Sushma Swaraj, Minister of External Affairs

She played a key role in bringing back Geeta, the deaf-mute Indian woman living in Pakistan after accidentally crossing the border over a decade ago, to India.

外交部长斯瓦拉杰

她在将住在巴基斯坦的聋哑印度妇女吉塔带回印度的过程中发挥了关键作用。

 

ndtvOn August 22, a 33-year-old Indian aspiring air hostess, who travelled to the UAE to fulfill her dream but was allegedly held captive by traffickers, was rescued after Sushma Swaraj intervened following her brother’s desperate tweet to the External Affairs Minister. Swaraj tweeted back promising to intervene. “I have asked our ambassador in the UAE to help. He will speak to you and do the needful,” she said in her tweet.

8月22日，33岁的印度空姐恩特冯为了实现自己的梦想前往阿联酋，但据称被毒贩劫持。斯瓦拉杰在推特上回复称，她承诺将进行干预：“我已经请求印度驻阿联酋大使提供协助。他会联系你，提供一切必要的帮助。”她在推特上说。

 

Likewise, Agratha Dinakaran, who was in Berlin, Germany, tweeted that she had lost her passport and money, and the Indian embassy was closed. Within a few hours, Dinakaran received a direct tweet from Sushma Swaraj’s official twitter handle asking her for her phone number and assured her that the Indian embassy in Berlin will be contacting her.

还有类似的事，当时在德国柏林的阿格拉塔迪纳卡兰在推特上说，她的护照和钱丢了，印度大使馆也关闭了。几小时后，迪娜卡兰收到了来自苏希玛·斯瓦拉杰官方推特账号的一条直接推文，询问她的电话号码，并向她保证，印度驻柏林大使馆将与她联系。

 

A similar incident happened, when a woman in Yemen tweeted out a picture of her baby, asking for evacuation. Sushma Swaraj replied to her personally, ensuring evacuation. Sabah Shawesh safely made home and thanked Swaraj on Twitter.

类似的事件也发生过，也门一名妇女在推特上发布了一张她孩子的照片，要求安全撤离。苏希玛·斯瓦拉杰亲自回复她，确保会完成撤离。沙巴·沙伊什安全到家，并在推特上感谢了斯瓦拉杰。

 

Modi has also lauded Sushma Swaraj saying that the Ministry of External Affairs had never before worked like it was doing under her leadership.

“If somebody (in distress) tweets to her at 1am., she replies by 1.10am. The embassy concerned is alerted within no time. Has anybody ever seen India’s External Affairs Ministry work like this?” he asked.

Manohar Parrikar, Defence Minister

During his tenure, the government on paper has cleared around 40 new defence acquisition proposals, worth over Rs 1 lakh crore. This much-needed accelerated decision making process will ensure that the modernisation drive of armed forces remain on the track.

As a defence minister, he has also revived several long-pending mega projects, which were virtually stuck in files during A K Antony’s eight years at the helm in the defence ministry.

The government is also expected to come out soon with a “simplified and time-bound” defence procurement procedure (DPP). The DPP is the master manual of capital defence procurements in India. The latest version, the 351-page DPP 2013, has for the first time listed buying from within the country as priority.

莫迪还赞扬了苏希玛·斯瓦拉杰，称外交部从未像在她的领导下那样工作过。

“如果有人(在困境中)在凌晨1点发推文给她。她会在凌晨1点10分之前回复。有关大使馆立即得到通知。有人见过印度外交部这样做吗?”他问道。

印度国防部长马诺哈尔•帕里卡尔

在他的任期内，政府已经以书面形式批准了大约40项新的国防收购提议，价值超过1万亿卢比。这一迫切需要的加速决策过程将确保军队现代化进程继续沿着正确的轨道前进。

作为一名国防部长，他还重启了几个长期悬而未决的大型项目，这些项目在安东尼执掌国防部的8年期间，几乎都被封存在了文件中。

预计政府将很快推出一个“简化、有时限的”国防采购程序。国防采购是印度资本防御采购的指南。最新版本是351页的《2013年国防采购程序》，首次将从国内购买列为优先事项。

 

Parrikar has said that ‘Make in India’ “is a very important aspect of the current government’s policy, and the one department where it can be a success is the defence industry.”

The defence minister has also assured the country that India will take “pro-active” steps to prevent a 26/11 type attack hatched from foreign soil.

Suresh Prabhu, Railway Minister

The minister has promised to bring all contracts on e-tendering platform by the end of this year, or earliest, in the early part of next year.

“Since I took over as Railway Minister, we have upgraded the website of IRCTC, launched paperless ticketing, allowed hygienic and cheaper water at stations, allowed private caterers in running trains, (undertaken) cleaning of toilets and railway premises, mechanised washing of linen, (initiated) changing the internal design of coaches, expanded the railway network, etc,” the minister had said.

He has also said that all budgetary announcements made in the Railway Budget fulfilled.

So a great start. Let's just hope the Modi government stays on track!

帕里卡尔曾表示，“印度制造”“是当前政府政策的一个非常重要的方面，国防工业是印度制造能够取得成功的一个部门。”

印度国防部长还向该国保证，印度将采取“积极”措施，防止外国策划的26/11那样的袭击。

印度铁道部长苏雷什•普拉布

部长承诺在今年年底前，或最早在明年年初，将所有合同纳入电子招标平台。

“自从我接任铁道部长，我们升级了电子招标平台网站，推出了无纸化票务，为站台带来了卫生和便宜的水，允许私人在火车上承保餐饮服务，(进行)厕所和铁路经营场址的清洁，纺织品布草的清洁，改变车厢的内部设计，扩展铁路网络等等”部长说。

他还表示，铁路预算中所有的预算公告都已完成。

这是一个很好的开始。我们希望莫迪政府保持正轨就行！

 

Nilesh Kamath, Film Producer at Los Angeles (1993-present)

Can Narendra Modi make India a superpower?

First let us understand the definition of Super-Power before we go any further on this question.

What is a Super Power?

Superpower is a word used to describe a state with a dominant position in international relations and which is characterised by its unparalleled ability to exert influence or project power on a global scale. This is done through the combined-means of technological, cultural, military and economic strength, as well as diplomatic and soft power influence. Traditionally, superpowers are preeminent among the great powers (e.g., as the United States is today).- Sourced from Wikipedia

Now that we have the literal definition of Super Power in from of us, let us go ahead and explore where India stands on one or more of these parameters:

莫迪能让印度成为超级大国吗?

在我们进一步讨论这个问题之前，首先让我们了解一下超级大国的定义。

什么是超级大国?

超级大国是指在国际关系中处于主导地位的国家，其特点是其在全球范围内施加影响或展示实力的能力无与伦比。这是通过技术、文化、军事和经济实力以及外交和软实力影响力的综合手段实现的。从传统上讲，超级大国是大国中最突出的(如今天的美国)。-源自维基百科

既然我们对超级大国有了字面定义的了解，我们就继续看看印度在这些方面的表现情况吧：

ECONOMICS

Off-Late I have been hearing a lot about how India is the only glimmer of hope, and China is the thing of the past. All these exaggerated claims can be expected given that Modi is past-master at hyperbole. The theory that 'China's loss is our gain' could not be farther from the truth. China is a $10 trillion economy growing at 6.7%, and India is a $2.1 trillion economy growing at 7.5%, now do the math. Even if India maintains this growth-rate over the next 20 years, and even if China's growth rate dips to 4% YoY for the same period, India will still be nowhere close to China in the terms of absolute GDP.

Eg: 2015 Indian GDP =$2.1 Trillion, cumulative growth rate 7.5%, period 20 yrs.

     2035 Indian GDP = $ 8.94 Trillion

     2015 China's GDP = $11.385 Trillion growing at 4% YoY for 20 yrs.

     2035 China's GDP = $25.19 Trillion

So even after these extreme assumptions China's GDP will still be 3X that of India's.

GDP per capita is altogether a different story.

经济

最近我听到很多说法，都称印度是唯一的希望之光，而中国已经是过去式了。考虑到莫迪是夸张大师，所有这些夸张的说法都在意料之中。“中国的损失就是我们的收获”的理论大错特错。中国是一个10万亿美元的经济体，增长速度6.7%，印度是一个2.1万亿美元的经济体，增长7.5%，现在我们来算算看。即使印度在未来20年保持这样的增长速度，而中国的经济增长率下降到4%，印度的绝对GDP仍然远远赶不上中国。

2015年印度GDP = 2.1万亿美元，累计增长率7.5%，历时20年。

2035年印度GDP = 8.94万亿美元

2015年中国GDP = 11.385万亿美元，未来20年增长率4%。

2035年中国GDP为25.19万亿美元

因此，即使在这些极端假设之后，中国的GDP仍将是印度的3倍。

人均GDP则完全是另一回事。