印媒: 中产阶级确保印度成为全球市场动荡中投资者的避风港

Middle class ensuring India a haven for investors amid global market turmoil

中产阶级确保印度成为全球市场动荡中投资者的避风港

NEW DELHI: As the threat of a trade war grows and emerging market central banks sacrifice growth to protect their currencies, equity investors have their backs to the wall. But in their search for a haven, one name keeps cropping up: India.

新德里：随着贸易战的威胁增加，新兴市场央行为保护本国货币而牺牲增长，股票投资者纷纷退出。在寻找避难所时，一个名字不断涌现：印度。

The fastest-growing major economy in the world, enjoys relative insulation from external shocks as a booming middle class delivers enough domestic demand to counter the fallout from protectionism, according to money managers including Franklin Templeton and Newton Asset Management.

据富兰克林邓普顿和牛顿资产管理公司的基金经理称，世界上增长最快的主要经济体与外部冲击相对隔绝，因为蓬勃发展的中产阶级提供足够的国内需求来应对保护主义的后果。

Exchange-traded fund house WisdomTree Investments Inc. goes a step further, recommending investors allocate as much as 20 per cent of their portfolios to Indian equities.

交易所交易基金公司WisdomTree Investments公司更进一步，建议投资者将其投资组合中的多达20％分配给印度股票。

India is “one of those places that provides better risk-reward compared with emerging markets at large, especially China or more globally-linked countries,”

“与新兴市场相比，尤其是中国或与全球更多联系的国家，印度是提供更好风险回报的地方之一”。

Gaurav Sinha, an asset-allocation strategist at WisdomTree, said in an interview in London. “If I am investing in India, I am investing for the local consumption.”

WisdomTree的资产配置策略师Gaurav Sinha在伦敦接受采访时表示，“如果我在印度投资，我正在投资当地消费。”

That might sound brave to anyone who’s been watching India’s performance this year. While stocks are up 4.1 per cent in local-currency terms, the rupee’s weakness has left investors with losses in dollar terms. Since a global selloff began in January, equities have erased $274 billion, equivalent in value to the entire market of Finland. Increased volatility and passive-fund outflows suggest India is no less vulnerable to the jitters than its peers.

对于今年看印度表演的人来说，这听起来可能会很勇敢。尽管以当地货币计算，股票上涨4.1％，但卢比的疲软使得投资者在以美元计算时亏损。自1月份全球抛售开始以来，股市已经刷新了2740亿美元，相当于芬兰整个市场的价值。波动性增加和被动型资金外流增加表明印度与其它国家相比较不敏感。

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised key interest rates for the first time in four years last week, and governor Urjit Patel has even gone as far as pleading with the Federal Reserve System, the central banking system of the US, to go slow with its interest rate increases. With general elections less than a year away and Prime Minister Narendra Modi facing a united opposition, political uncertainty looms large too.

印度储备银行（RBI）上周四年来首次提高了主要利率，而且州长Urjit Patel甚至恳求联邦储备系统（美国中央银行体系）加息慢一些。由于距大选不到一年，总理纳伦德拉莫迪面临着一个团结的反对派，政治不确定性也很大。

来源：http://www.santaihu.com/45288.html

But that’s doing little to deter the bulls. When the dust settles, they say, the country will start to outperform again. And they have history on their side: India was quicker to rebound from the 2008 crisis, handing investors 70 percent greater returns than the rest of the developing world since then.

但是这对阻止多头并没有多大作用。他们表示，当尘埃落定时，该国将再次开始跑赢大盘。而且他们曾经有这样的历史：印度从2008年的危机中反弹得更快，从而使投资者的回报率比其他发展中国家高出70％。

“I don’t think our positive stance on India has changed,” said Vikas Chiranewal, a Mumbai-based senior executive director for Franklin Templeton Investments’ emerging-markets group. “The broader market was becoming a bit pricey and some amount of price decline is healthy.”

富兰克林邓普顿投资公司新兴市场集团驻孟买的高级执行董事Vikas Chiranewal说：“我认为我们对印度的积极态度已经改变。 “大盘目前有些高，一定程度的价格下跌是健康的。”

GROWING CONSUMERISM

增加的消费主义

Propelled by economic reforms that started in 1991 and have been deepened by Modi’s government, India’s middle class has ballooned past 60 crore, according to a study by Mumbai University. The nation will become the third-largest consumer economy, with household spending tripling to $4 trillion by 2025, according to a report by Boston Consulting Group last year. That’s made Indian markets a magnet for foreign investors, spurring flows of $335 billion in the past 10 years.

根据孟买大学的一项研究，在1991年开始的经济改革的推动下，消费主义已经被莫迪政服进一步推进，印度的中产阶级资产已经超过60亿卢比。根据波士顿咨询公司去年的报告，这个国家将成为第三大消费经济体，到2025年，家庭支出将增长两倍，达到4万亿美元。这使得印度市场吸引了外国投资者的注意力，在过去的10年中刺激了335亿美元的流入。

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts India’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow an average of more than 8 per cent annually in the next five years.

国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测，未来五年，印度的国内生产总值（GDP）平均每年平均增长8％以上。

“India is the only, large accessible country which has the potential to grow at substantial rates,” Sinha said.

辛哈说：“印度是唯一一个有潜力大幅增长的可以进入的大型国家。”

Yet India is less reliant on exports than most other emerging markets. With almost two-thirds of GDP accounted for by consumption, companies have their hands full serving local demand. As a result, exports account for just 11 per cent of the GDP, compared with China’s 19 per cent and Russia’s 23 per cent.

然而，印度对大多数其他新兴市场的依赖性较低。由于近三分之二的国内生产总值占消费量，公司已经能充分满足当地需求。因此，出口仅占GDP的11％，而中国是19％，俄罗斯23％。

Mumbai’s $2.2 trillion stock market is primarily driven by investors at home. Foreign-investment flows have accounted for a fraction of the trading even during this year’s declines.

孟买的2.2万亿美元股票市场主要由投资者在国内推动。即使在今年的下降中，外国投资流量仅占贸易的一小部分。

Still, signs abound that India’s stock market is overcrowded. Investors have to pay more than $18 for every dollar of projected profit, one of the world’s highest valuations. The country’s sensitivity to oil prices and the approach of the 2019 general elections increase the risk that the market may be volatile for the next 12 months.

不过，迹象显示印度股市过度拥挤。投资者必须为每美元预计利润支付超过18美元，这是全球最高估值之一。该国对油价的敏感度以及2019年大选的临近增加了未来12个月市场可能波动的风险。

“Valuations have become more stretched for the Indian equity market as a whole, but provided the oil price does not continue to rise, we think India does offer relative insulation against protectionist trade policy,” said Douglas Reed, a London-based strategist at Newton Investment Management.

“对于整个印度股票市场来说，估值变得更加紧张，但假如石油价格不会继续上涨，我们认为印度确实提供了相对保护主义贸易政策的绝对保护，”伦敦的牛顿投资管理策略师道格拉斯里德说道。

印度时报读者的评论：

Neeraj Chandan

The biggest eisk to Indian economy & share market returns will be Rahul Gandhi & a coallation government, we should vote for stability i.e. Modi!!!

印度经济和股市回报最大的危险是拉胡尔甘地和待调整的政服，我们应该为稳定投票，也就是莫迪！

 

Ajay

Where are the world class economists Pappu and his bootlickers. mute parrot MMS and Chindu chor why are they not commenting against this news and declaring it to be false

世界级经济学家帕普和他的启蒙者在哪里？辛迪的沉默鹦鹉和Chindu chor为什么不评论这个消息并宣称它是错误的。

 

Kulkarni Pralhad

If at all Indian economy fares badly it will be mainly due to hostile political parties which have only personal ambitions

如果印度所有的经济都不好，那主要是因为敌对政党只有个人野心。

 

Balachandramenon Vengasserry

Team Pappu wont comment on such statements from International Finance Bodies praising India, especially

尤其是帕普团队不会评论印度的国际金融机构。

 

Kjo Mi

It''s only middle class who always suffers...still they are backbone of the nation..

中产阶级是唯一受难的……他们仍然是国家的中坚力量。

 

Sureshgouda Sh

There are lot of fools who still support Congress even after 60 years rule, poor didn''t get basic fecilities. They kept poor as poor as every time election comes, they can offer freebies and come to power. They created Muslim vote bank. Divided society.All this happened when people were not much educated and media was not so spread as it is today. Irony is, even after so much info available now on how the Congress ruled, how many scams they did, how they are joining hands with corrupt, some people are so dumb, still support Congress. I don''t know when people of my country learn and think about betterment of nation rather than supporting Congress for their selfish motives.

即使经过60年的统治，仍然有很多傻瓜仍然支持国会，穷人没有获得基本生活保障。他们每次参加选举时都依旧贫穷和穷困。他们可以提供免费膳食并执政。他们创造了穆斯林投票银行。分离社会。所有这些发生在人们受教育程度不高并且媒体不像今天这样发达时。讽刺的是，即使有大量的信息有关国会如何统治，有多少诈骗，如何腐败的信息披露，仍有些人非常愚蠢，仍然支持国会。我不知道我国人民何时会学习和思考改善国家，而不是因个人的动机而支持国会。

 

Arvind

This article is a slap on the face of Chiddambram who was talking yesterday that Indian economy has been derailed by Modi Govt.

这篇文章给Chiddambram一记耳光，昨天他说印度经济已被莫迪政服拖垮。

 

Ankit

The biggest risk to our country and economy is God forbid pappu Idiot and his thugbandhan coming to power.....We should all ensure that Pappu is kicked out

Ankit

我们国家和经济面临的最大风险是上帝禁止白痴帕普和他的暴徒上台。我们都应该确保帕普被踢出去。

 

Neeraj

BJP: We dont take Rahul Gandhi seriously.

Rahul Gandhi visits ailing Vajpayee at AIIMS.

The entre BJP, including the PM, make a beeline for AIIMS to mark their attendance.

印度人民党：我们没有严肃对待拉胡尔甘地。

拉胡尔甘地在印度医疗科学机构拜访生病的Vajpayee

所有的印度人民党，包括首相，正在为印度医疗科学机构做出自己的努力。

 

Neeraj Chandan

I am happy with Modi because:-

- Affordable housing policy

-GST implementation

- The way foreign policy has been managed by the current govt

The markets like that & hence people invest!!

Continuing the good work is important, this fractured mandate is the biggest economic risk!!

Neeraj Chandan

我对莫迪感到满意，因为： -

- 经济适用房政策

-GST的实施

-当前政服的外交政策

因为市场如此，人们才投资！

继续做好工作很重要，这种分裂的授权才是最大的经济风险！

 

Proud Indian

the only risk to India is Modi losing, if Modi loses, iNDIA IS DOOMED, upa WILL MAKE IT INTO ANOTHER PAKISTAN

Proud Indian

印度唯一的风险是莫迪输了，如果莫迪输了，印度就完蛋了，将成为另一个巴基斯坦。

 

N Renganathan

song of democracy is the most plausible reason.

more investor friendly atmosphere must be created and sustained too

敏煮之歌是最合理的理由。。

必须创造并保持更多投资者的友好气氛。

 

Sanjay Sawant

Now Congi slaves will say that, this is bcoz of 100 years of congress existence in INDIA.

现在，国会奴隶们会说，这是因为印度100年国会的存在。

 

Lokendra Chauhan

Economic news is good and getting better. However, political instability in 2019 can be a dampner.

经济新闻很好，情况有好转。然而，2019年的政治不稳定可能是一个好事。

 

Sriram Acharya

The Kichidi Mahagathbandhan parties are still in search of Ache Din for India. India is being insulated by NaMo from external economic shocks. NaMo Namaste

政党还在研究乙酰胆碱酯酶。NaMo Namaste正在将印度从外部经济冲击中隔离开来。

 

Santosh

Middle class ensuring India''s growth and Govt ensuring screwing Middleclass with no relief in taxes

中产阶级确保印度的增长，而政服压迫中产阶级在税收方面并没有减免。

 

Neeraj Chandan

Lol, its amazing how loud these paid congress bots are!!!

Apart from the -ve issue of cow vigilante there is no -ve against Modi, this -ve propagande can be turned around very easily!!!

Look at what i get out of the changes done by Modi:-

- Affordale housing

- Banks are able tonrecover loans

- Health care for poor

- GST

- Massive investment in rural, credit insurance for farmers

For all the above benifits to middle class economy needs to perform, which it is under Modi

哈哈哈，这些拿工资的国会议员的声音简直太大了！

除了躲在护牛者面具后面的因素之外，没有对莫迪的反对，这个丑闻可以很容易反转！

看看我从莫迪所做的改变中得到了什么： -

-买得起住房

- 银行能够偿还贷款

- 为穷人提供医疗保健

- 消费税

- 大量投资农村信用保险

在莫迪领导下，所有对中产阶级经济有好处的举措都要实施。

 

Ramendra

Largest Democracy Of The World With About 130 Crores People, A Great Market Of The World Too

世界上最大的敏煮国家约130百万人民，也是世界的一个巨大市场。

 

RCH Ram

The full world against Hindus but Hindus will always rise. That is what they have always done since times ancient and will continue to do so.

全面世界对抗印度教徒，但印度教徒总会崛起。这是自古以来他们的做法，并将继续这样做。

 

Sanjay Kothekar

This is the real Moddle class...with knowledge & Merit w/O Reservation...The real backbone of India....Maily Liberal Hindus.

这是真正的中产阶级...保有知识和价值， 没有保留......印度的真正支柱......主要是自由派印度教徒。

 

Ramakrihna Sidhantham

Rich have stored all 2K notes in their iron safes

富人已经将2千纸币放在保险箱里。

 

TSR The Urbanist

India definitely has it''s own immense captive demand and hence has been insulated due to the Global economic turn-arounds. We need a stable and clear consistent growth pattern and not spurtive growth and this can be achieved by Visionaries and not jokers who fool around with the Public, for their election talks and work on divisive policies

印度肯定有它自己巨大的需求，所以因全球经济转折的影响而被隔离。我们需要一个稳定清晰，较一致的增长模式，而不是刺激性的增长。 这可以通过有远见者来实现，而不是通过拿公众开玩笑的人， 因为他们的选举谈判致力于政党分裂。

 

Rakesh Takru

Our economy is suffering due to the ego problems of the political parties ..............the leaders of the opposition in league with the ruling need to put constructive and positive ideology to work instead of their narrow ends being highlighted in the national interest .................the percentage of the middle class is hardly 20% of the total population of the country ........

由于政党的自我问题，我们的经济正在遭受痛苦......反对派的领导人与执政联盟一道，需要让建设性积极的意识形态产生作用，而不是在国家利益中强调狭隘的结果.................中产阶级的比例几乎为该国总人口的20％........

 

Deepak B Mhalas

Actual role of middle class is to repay loans of super class and pay for needs of lower class.

中产阶级的实际作用是偿还巨额贷款和支付下层阶级的需要。

 

venka thhfh

Yet the middle class still doesn''t think about themselves. They keep paying more taxes, don''t get any educational or medical or pensionary facilities.. Questioning this government doesn''t mean you have to become a supporter of congis. Questioning means forcing the people in power to do the right thing. Showing them that if u do the wrong thing we will bring you down.

然而，中产阶级仍然没有想到自己。他们继续支付更多的税款，没有获得任何教育或医疗或养老设施..质疑这个政服并不意味着你必须成为国会的支持者。质疑意味着迫使当权者做正确的事情。告诉他们，如果你做错了，我们会让你失望。