军演将适得其反：与中国发生冲突，英国卫报读者评

-------------译者：五味子.-

We are now in the second week of Exercise Talisman Sabre 2017. This year is the largest ever of the biennial training and interoperability exercise hosted by Australia with more than 30000 troops including personnel from the United States Australia Japan New Zealand and Canada participating.

"护身军刀2017"军事演习已经进行到了第二周.护身军刀演习是每两年进行一次的联合军演由澳大利亚做东道主.有美国澳大利亚日本新西兰和加拿大参加今年的规模是最大的一次，总兵力超过3万。

The massive set of month-long war games demonstrates Australia’s firm place within the system of US regional military dominance and alliances that has underpinned regional stability since the Vietnam war.

这场军演会持续一个月之久.军演表明了澳洲在美国为主导的地区军事主宰和联盟中的地位，该联盟为越战以来的地区稳定起到了巩固作用。

However as China continues to grow and the United States continues to pursue total military supremacy the system now threatens to inflame the very thing it was designed to prevent large-scale conflict between the region’s most powerful states. The very scenario simulated in Talisman Sabre.

然而，中国在继续强大，而美国在继续追求完全的军事霸权，所以美国领导的地区联盟现在起到了适得其反的作用，本来是为了避免地区强国之间的大规模冲突的。“护身军刀演习”模拟了这样的大规模冲突局面。

With conflict of this scale considered likely enough to necessitate such enormous preparations Australian politicians policymakers and media outlets should be deeply engaged in a public dialogue centred around defining national interests defence priorities and how our relationships with other states reflect these. Instead Australia sleepwalks along the path of military expansion and confrontation incapable and unwilling to diverge from American security priorities where they do not reflect our own.

虽然大规模冲突的可能让这样的演习准备看起来很合理，但是澳洲政策制定者和媒体应该就如何定义国家利益，国防重点以及与他国的关系如何反映这些问题进行公开对话。然而澳洲依然梦游在军事扩张和对抗的道路上，不愿意脱离美国的安全政策，而美国的安全政策根本无法代表我们。

英国卫报网贴翻译

-------------译者：依旧挚爱-

Bejolly881
Most shite.

通篇废话。

mattb1
China has no need to go to war against the West.
They are justing investing in and buying out Western businesses (countries) instead.

中国不需要和西方打仗。
他们正在大举投资，将西方的企业（甚至国家）都买了下来。

HeftyNoggins
Yes. Basically I agree. But. You never once mentioned Chinese democracy. Except the (Corbyn) radical left every sane person would prefer the hegemony of a freedom-seeking democracy like the (horrid horrid) United States of America to the party dictatorship of China.

是的，我基本同意。但是，你从来没有提过中国的民主，相比与中国的一党专政，有脑子的人（极左派比如科尔宾除外）都会更喜欢一个美国这样一个追求自由民主的全球霸权国家。

-------------译者：加勒比海神-

orangefox
There's no doubt that China would like to lead the world in technology and would also like to be the father to SE Asia.
To do that they need to make SE Asia dependent on them. Just like the West led the world since the industrial revolution by staying technically a step ahead of the competition and manipulating markets to keep other competitor countries down the Chinese are attempting to do the same.
The problem for China is getting the other SE Asian countries to be willing to be their underdogs. The Chinese will offer money and trade but they will not offer prestige. That they want to keep for themselves.
The Chinese were willing to make sacrifices now in the form of offering cheap labour for the Western world in exchange to lead the world in the future.
I have long maintained that the Chinese plan was to undermine Western manufacturing with their cheap wages so once those industries close the countries become dependent on China. And of course it needed the cooperation of the Western businesses to sell out their own local workers. Greed was the inducement.
The Chinese are not stupid. They are willing to play the long game but eventually the game comes to an end.
China is not really ready to take over SE Asia yet hence why the West is wise to think hard now and act to convince China to abandon it's expansion plans.

毫无疑问，中国将引领世界科技，而且中国将会成为东南亚的爸爸。
为了实现这个目标，中国需要东南亚依赖它。就像西方领导世界一样，自工业革命以来，西方在技术上领先竞争者一步，并且操纵市场以打压其他竞争者，中国正在尝试做同样的事。
中国面临的问题是要让其他东南亚国家愿意成为中国的狗。中国人将会给他们钱并和他们进行贸易往来，但是中国不会提供威望，他们想把威望留给自己。
中国现在愿意做出牺牲为西方提供廉价劳动力以换取在未来领导世界。我一直认为中国人的计划是通过他们较低的薪水来破坏西方制造业，所以一旦这些国家的工业被关闭，他们将会变得依赖中国。当然中国需要与西方公司合作来出售他们的工人。贪婪是诱因。中国人不傻，他们愿意玩一局很长的游戏，但最终游戏会结束。
中国还没有真正准备好接管东南亚，因此这就是为什么西方现在是明智的去思考并行动去说服中国放弃他们的扩张计划。

-------------译者：加勒比海神-

HeftyNoggins
The UK Guardian always gives 'sensible advice'.

英国卫报总是会提出'明智的建议'

HeftyNoggins
Yes. Jeremy Corbyn 'thinks' just like you do.

是的，杰里米 科尔宾（英国工党党首）和你想的一样

Numero Tester
Very well written response. This article makes zero sense. Even in a very hypothetical scenario of having to choose a 'hegemon' I would choose America over China anyday! Thats because despite of the annoyances the Americans are a vibrant democracy and will NEVER allow colonization of the world. China on the other hand is an opaque institution that is ruthless and self serving. Even when they are not the only power look at how they are 'raping' Africa to get resources for their industries. They take their own workers into third world countries after striking deals with corrupt strongmen. They have zero conscience. There is no country in their neighbourhood that has not seen their insatiable greed for land power and resources. Half of the world belongs to China according to some God damned Ming dynasty scroll. And they dream of destroying the 'western culture' even as we speak--bit by bit industry by industry university by university and hacking by hacking! Make no mistake--if they usurp the US the world will undergo a brutal suppression and colonization--just the kind you see in Tibet ( and soon in Hong Kong). So dear Mr Rollo wake up from you freaking dream and face the reality...unless its the Chinese money making your fingers write utter rubbish!

很好的书面回应，本文说的都是废话。假设要选择一个霸权，我也会选择美国而不是中国。因为除去一些不好的因素，美国是一个充满活力的皿煮国家，而且美国决不允许殖民全世界。另一方面，中国却是个不透明的国家，又无情又自私。看看中国是如何强奸非洲并把非洲的资源用于本国工业的。他们在与腐败的强人达成交易后把自己的工人带到第三世界国家。他们没有一点良心。所有中国的邻居国家都能看到中国对土地和资源贪得无厌的欲望。根据一些哔了狗的明代卷轴，半个世界都属于中国。他们梦想摧毁西方文明，甚至就在我们说话的此时此刻，他们正在一点一点的通过工业、大学、黑客实现着这个梦想。绝对没错的，如果他们篡夺了美国的地位，那么世界将会经历残酷的镇压和殖民，就像你在西藏看到的（不久也将在香港看到）。所以亲爱的Rollo先生赶紧从你的怪梦中醒来并面对现实吧，除非你是收到了中国人给你的钱才写下这些垃圾的。

-------------译者：加勒比海神-

HeftyNoggins
LOL. My mother always used to say that you don't need enemies if you have France for a friend. And I can just see Merkel dispatching the German navy to assist Australia protecting its nation (sea) borders against .... Well. Against who? Argentina??? Or Rwanda perhaps? Never never China.

呵呵。我妈妈过去经常说如果法国是你的朋友，那么你不需要任何敌人。我看到默大婶派遣德国海军去帮助澳大利亚保护其领海边界是为了抵抗谁？或许是卢旺达？绝对绝对不是中国。

R_Ambrose_Raven
A general high-intensity war in Northern Asia would be disastrous for all involved whatever the outcome. China in fact has nothing practical to gain because in addition to a manufacturing sector that is ruining the rest of the world it already has freedom of navigation and trade in its region. Likewise for Japan. Likewise for us. Indeed for the U.S. a war for domination of the region is a truly bad choice because as with the criminal invasion of Iraq in 2003 it would suffer the enormous costs of conflict for a victory that would give it less than it already has. Regional war would also destroy the cooperation in geostrategic environmental and social matters that is desperately needed. Damaging Climate Change plus Limits to Growth requires international cooperation to drastically reduce the use ? and waste ? of resources when nothing is more demanding and wasteful than war.

一个在亚洲北部的普通高强度战争不论是何种结果对各参与方来说都是灾难性的。中国事实上得不到实际的好处，因为除了一个已经毁了世界上其他国家的制造业之外，中国已经在此地区自由航行并进行贸易活动。对日本来说是一样的，对美国来说也是一样的。事实上对美国来说，一个为了争夺地区领导权的战争是糟糕的选择，因为正如2003年非法入侵伊拉克，美国为了取得战争胜利花费了巨额成本，战争带给美国的好处比其已有的少多了。地区战争也将会摧毁地缘政治、环境和社会问题方面的合作，而这种合作是我们现在急需的。灾难性的气候变化加上增长的限制会要求国际合作减少对资源的使用和浪费，但是没有什么比战争更浪费资源了。

-------------译者：加勒比海神-

PublicAccess
France and Germany - economically successful non-English speaking countries - are working with China (another economically successful non-English speaking country).

法国和德国-经济成功的非英语国家-都与中国（另一个经济成功的非英语国家）进行合作

Australia is sticking with Donald Trump's Anglosphere but trusting French designed submarines to provide us the expertise necessary to impress our colonial leaders in the USA and the UK and provide a long term work for the dole scheme to assist the Liberal party in holding on to Federal seats in South Australia.

澳大利亚紧跟着特朗普的英语文化圈，但却相信法国设计的潜艇为我们提供技术来打动我们在美国和英国的殖民地领导，而且为救济金计划提供长期工作，以协助自由党保持在南澳大利亚的联邦席位。

hardman888
An uncanny resemblance to the yellow peril perhaps? History do have a habit of repeating itself in a bad way. But as the old saying goes those who do not know history's mistakes are doomed to repeat them. www.theguardian.com/books/2014/oct/20/yellow-peril-fu-manchu-rise-chinaphobia-review-factors-fear-china

或许与黄祸惊人的相似？历史有以一个坏的方式不断重演的习惯。但是就像老话说的，不了解历史错误的人是注定要重演历史的。

-------------译者：威尔大旺-

R_Ambrose_Raven
Well no we make the issue rather simpler through our own extreme vulnerability. Due not least to ruling clique arrogance complacency and indifference we are so vulnerable to any serious Chinese pressure that they might be able to force Australia to sue for peace on China's terms without any serious effort. We are that vulnerable. We have no ships no planes no fuel reserves military uniforms and of course “Australian” flags made in China (in the last year politicians bought $ 1/4 m worth) and no conception of any need to plan to replace any loss of supply of Chinese manufactures (not that we currently have any capacity to do so). Just-in-time supply chains by definition have minimal surplus capacity. When a single batch of diesel fuel at the Kwinana refinery was found to be substandard we were immediately reassured that a replacement batch could be produced before shortages would appear. Fuel reserve margins are that small. What is striking is our universal non-mention and indifference to that fact.

我们的极度脆弱会使这个问题变得十分简单，尤其是因为统治者的骄傲自大和漠不关心。我们如此弱小以至于无法承受来自中国的严重压力。他们（中国）可能会强迫澳大利亚满足中国的条件来求和。我们是那么脆弱。我们没有船没有没有飞机没有燃料储备也没有军服，还有中国制造的“澳大利亚”旗帜（去年政客买它花了250000美元），澳大利亚也没有任何取代中国制造商所造成的供应损失的概念（不是我们目前有能力这样做）。根据定义，即时供应链具有最小的剩余容量。当Kwinana炼油厂的一批柴油被发现不合标准时，我们立即保证在出现短缺之前可以生产更换批次。燃料储备利润很小。令人震惊的是我们普遍不提和漠视这个事实。

-------------译者：布拉格鸽子蛋-

ranger12310
We had NO right to be in Vietnam In saying that I am not degrading our troops as they were just doing their duty. but It was just another American invasion to try and tie up oil supplies from the south China Seas. We weren't invited we invited ourselves to go there.

我们没有权利参加越战。我没有贬低我们军队的意思，因为他们只是在履行职责。但这只是另一起美国入侵行动，目的是为了占用南中国海的石油供给。没人邀请我们，是我们自己厚着脸皮去那儿的。

JavaZee
Yes we are both agreed on that - but Commissioned and declared operational in late 2012 conducting amphibious exercises in the Bohai Gulf over Christimas/New Year 2012/13 and then deploying to the South China Sea.

没错，这一点我们都同意。但2012年底（我们）在渤海湾进行了两栖军事演习，并在那儿度过了2012年的圣诞节和2013年的新年，随后又部署到了南中国海。

AustraliaDreaming
Australian Federation 1901.

澳大利亚联邦1901.

-------------译者：cyber power-

Bolowski
Australia is a grovelling gutless sycophant with its nose firmly buried in Uncle Sam's arse. As the sun sets on US hegemony it will pay a price for its unquestioning obsequiousness.

澳大利亚是一个卑鄙无耻又胆小怕事的马屁精，它把自己的鼻子牢牢地埋进山姆大叔的屁股中。随着美国霸权的日落西山，澳大利亚将为其盲目跟随付出代价。

ranger12310
Funny how Australian consumers were playing second fiddle to the japanese 50 odd years ago with inferior products at the time.
Australia has cow-tailed to the poms the americans japanese and it is about time we stood on our own two feet.

有趣的是，50年前澳大利亚的消费者充当了日本人的配角当时靠的是劣质产品。
澳大利亚吃英国人、美国人、日本人的牛尾巴，时间差不多了，我们该双脚站立了。

AustraliaDreaming
Combat ready. November 16

战斗准备。11月16

orangefox
Interesting speech. Could be quite a few hidden thoughts in it.

有趣的演讲。其中可能会有很多隐藏的想法。

I do agree that Australia needs to legitimatize itself by a treaty with the original inhabitants.

我同意澳大利亚需要通过一条与原居民的条约让自己合法化。

If only we had some politicians with balls. Rudd should of done this while he was popular.

要是我们的政治家有点胆量那该多好。陆克文应该在受欢迎的时候把这个事情办了。

（来源：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com/wtfy/22457.html）