“帝国如何兴起。”中国已经开始了全球行动，而这是澳大利亚的回应。 [澳大利亚媒体]

China's rise in the Pacific threatens to erode Australian influence. But it also offers us a chance to be part of the biggest infrastructure project in the world.

中国在太平洋的崛起，存在对澳大利亚的势力范围造成侵蚀的威胁。但它也给我们提供了一个加入全世界最大的基础设施计划的机会。



In the Solomon Islands, a billion-dollar deal of major geopolitical importance may be about to be signed – without the relevant government minister being in the loop.

一项具有重大地缘政治重要性的交易即将在所罗门群岛签署——政府的相关部长却没有参与其中。

A proposal to build an airport and wharf complex for tourism in the Pacific Island nation currently has the tentative backing of a Chinese state-owned construction firm. But Solomons aviation minister Peter Agovaka – who should be most directly responsible for the project – knows next to nothing about it.

在这个太平洋岛国建造机场和码头的提议，目前得到了一家中国国有建筑公司的初步支持。但是所罗门群岛的航空部长Peter Agovaka却对此几乎一无所知，他应该是这个项目的直接负责人。

Instead, the proposal is being handled by the country’s minister of mines, Bradley Tovosia – his electorate, on the island of Guadalcanal, hosts the proposed site – and by the island's premier, Anthony Veke. Their talks have included meetings in China and Fiji.

这项提议反而是由该国矿业部长Bradley Tovosia——他在瓜达尔卡纳尔岛的选民建立了这项提议的网站——以及该岛总理Anthony Veke负责处理的。他们将在中国和斐济举行会议进行讨论。

Agovaka was philosophical when he was contacted by The Age and SMH, saying his cabinet colleague was dealing with the proposal “on a personal level”. He expected to be involved soon.

在收到时代杂志和SMH杂志的联系时，Agovaka表现得十分冷静，称他的内阁同事正在“私人层面”处理这个提议。他有望很快参与进来。

The intermediary in the discussions, meanwhile, is a 42-year-old Australian businessman, Victor Tang, who has a background working in casinos and hospitality. Tang said his agents were already negotiating with local landowners but the Chinese company - a large state-owned firm that has projects around the world, including in Australia - was “about 80 per cent” confident the deal would come to fruition.

与此同时，谈判的中间人是42岁的澳大利亚商人Victor Tang，他有在赌场和酒店工作的背景。Tang表示，他的代理人已经在与当地土地所有者进行谈判，但这家中国大型国有企业有“八成”的信心达成这笔交易——这家国有企业在世界各地都有项目，包括澳大利亚。

The project, which could be worth up to $1 billion, is being taken seriously in the Solomons. Tang said some design work had been done and there would be a meeting of potential investors in the “next few weeks”.

该项目价值可能高达10亿美元，所罗门群岛正在认真考虑。Tang表示，一些设计工作已经完成，潜在投资者将在未来几周举行一场会议。

It’s an ample demonstration of why the Turnbull government is so concerned about the murkiness of some Chinese investment and aid projects in the region.

为什么特恩布尔政府对中国在当地的一些投资和援建项目的阴暗之处如此关心？此事是一个足以说明问题的范例。

As Beijing lays down the fibres and sinews that are setting Chinese standards on infrastructure from the south Pacific to eastern Europe, Australia is grappling with two huge questions: How does it buy into this global construction boom itself in a way that doesn’t play into China’s clear strategic ambitions?

随着中国在从南太平洋到东欧的基础设施建设中设定中国标准，并铺下纤维和肌肉，澳大利亚也在努力解决两个重大问题：第一，它应该如何以不涉足中国明确的战略雄心的方式，投身这一全球建设热潮？

And how does it respond to China’s massive ramping-up of infrastructure building in Australia’s neighbourhood and the threat that Canberra’s traditional influence will be eroded?

第二，面对中国在澳大利亚的邻国加大基础设施的建设力度，以及堪培拉的传统势力范围遭到侵蚀的威胁，它将如何做出回应？



Like the Romans
At the big-picture level, there is no doubt in the Australian foreign policy establishment that the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has a significant strategic objective.

像罗马一样
在宏观层面，在澳大利亚外交政策的制定中，一带一路计划毫无疑问有着重大的战略目标。

“What BRI does is place China at the centre of economic activity and strengthen its resource supply lines. China is not a classic imperial power but, like the Romans, it understands that a road system can underpin an empire’s economic and strategic power,” said former Department of Foreign Affairs head Peter Varghese, now chancellor of the University of Queensland.

“一带一路所做的是把中国放在经济活动的中心，并加强其资源供应路线。中国不是典型的皇权国家，像罗马一样，它明白道路系统可以巩固一个帝国的经济和战略力量，”前外交事务部部长、昆士兰大学现任校长Peter Varghese说。

Department officials were blunt this month in a Senate hearing about China’s ambitions. It wants to dominate the region, stretching from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific. Australia’s interests, by contrast, lie in a “multipolar” region where Chinese power is balanced by a continued US presence and the rise or maintenance of other powers – India, Indonesia, Japan.

国务院官员本月在参议院听证会上直言不讳地谈到了中国的雄心，称它想控制从印度洋延伸到太平洋的地区。相比之下，澳大利亚的利益则在于一个实现地区的“多极化”，其中美国的力量继续存在，印度、印尼、日本等其它大国的崛起或维持，以平衡中国的力量。

Narrowing the lens on strategic concerns, Australia is also worried that small countries such as Pacific island nations will be vulnerable to coercion by being saddled with unsustainable debt.

出于战略关切的角度，澳大利亚还担心，像太平洋岛国这样的小国，由于背负着不可持续的债务，很容易受到胁迫。

Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, in some of the frankest remarks by an Australian politician on the matter, said such countries must not see their sovereignty endangered.

澳大利亚外交部长毕晓普就此事发表了一些澳大利亚政治家最直率的言论，她说，这些国家决不能坐视自己的主权受到威胁。

Ultimately, a concern is that some of these projects might have future dual uses and could serve military purposes. This is the obvious fear with the proposed Solomon Islands facility. Fears have also been raised by Australian defence experts about Vanuatu’s Chinese-built Luganville wharf.
But even if infrastructure development does not have a military purpose at first, the mere presence of Chinese projects and people might prompt the need for People’s Liberation Army forces.

最后，还有人担忧其中一些项目在未来可能具有双重用途，并可能用于军事目的。这显然是对提议中的所罗门群岛设施的担忧。澳大利亚国防专家也对中国在瓦努阿图建造的卢甘维尔码头提出担心。

As one government insider put it, it is wholly plausible that growing Chinese commercial activity in a Pacific nation might provoke a backlash among locals, even leading to political instability. Suddenly, there would be a need for Chinese military personnel.

但是，即使这些基础设施建设一开始没有军事目的，仅仅是中国项目和人员的存在就可能激发对PLA的需要。

Rory Medcalf, a former intelligence analyst who heads the Australian National University’s National Security College, refers to a kind of “mission creep”.

澳大利亚国立大学国家安全学院院长、前情报分析师Rory Medcalf提到了一种“使命的蜕变”。

“This is how empires begin,” Medcalf notes. “And how they overstretch.”

“帝国就是这样兴起的，”Medcalf解释说。“也是这样扩张开来的。”

Highways to nowhere
As for how Australia itself engages with BRI, the weight of opinion among foreign policy hardheads is that we should be cautious and highly selective. If Australia has a chance to partner on a Chinese infrastructure project that serves our economic interests, doesn’t pose an intolerable strategic risk and meets our governance principles, we should consider it.

通往偏僻之地的高速公路
至于澳大利亚本身如何与一带一路打交道，外交政策强硬派的重量级观点是：我们应该谨慎，并具有高度的选择性。如果澳大利亚有机会与中国合作建设一个符合我们经济利益、不会带来不可容忍的战略风险、符合我们的治理原则的基础设施项目，我们应该予以考虑。

It can’t involve bribing local officials, it can’t unnecessarily damage the environment, and it can’t leave the host nation heavily indebted and therefore vulnerable to future Chinese coercion.

它不能涉及到贿赂地方官员，也不能对环境造成不必要的破坏，更不能让东道国债台高筑，从而在未来容易受到中国的胁迫。

Fundamentally, it must contribute to the healthy development of a country that is a friend to Australia.

从根本上说，它必须对作为澳大利亚朋友的国家的健康发展做出贡献。

Bishop said a hypothetical highway in Papua New Guinea built as an Australia-China partnership must not be “a highway to nowhere but a highway to somewhere useful”.

毕晓普表示，考虑到澳中伙伴关系，假想中的在巴布亚新几内亚修建的高速公路，绝不能是“通往偏僻之地的公路，而只能通向有用的地方”。

“Where BRI projects are in our sphere of influence, we want to ensure they meet appropriate standards. We’re particularly concerned about the viability of economies in the region. We don’t want unsustainable debt burdens imposed upon the economies in the region,” Bishop said.

“当一带一路项目位于我们的影响范围之内，我们希望确保它们符合适当的标准。我们尤其关注该地区的经济活力。我们不希望不可持续的债务负担被强加给该地区的经济体。”毕晓普说。

Australia must remain “very clear-eyed about our strategic interests” given this is China’s vehicle “for greater political and strategic influence in the region”.

澳大利亚必须“对我们的战略利益保持非常清醒的认识”，因为这是中国在该地区“扩大政治和战略影响力”的工具。

“As long as we meet those requirements, the BRI can be something that we can partner with China on. But the realities are at present the funding mechanisms remain unclear. There’s a lot still to know about BRI. A lot.”

“只要我们符合这些要求，我们与中国就可以在一带一路项目中结成伙伴。但目前的现实是，融资机制仍不明朗。关于一带一路还有很多需要了解的地方，很多。”

There is no sign the government is keen to back any BRI projects in Australia itself.
Trade Minister Steven Ciobo signed a memorandum of understanding last September covering Australian infrastructure co-operation with China in third countries, including BRI projects, although the government has refused to release the document.Ciobo said the government was “working to identify and facilitate access to commercial opportunities resulting from BRI”.

Ciobo表示，政府正在“努力发现并促进一带一路带来的商业机会”。
在Ciobo的谅解备忘录中，“第三国”条款很重要：没有迹象表明（中国）政府渴望支持任何位于澳大利亚本国境内的一带一路项目。

The “third countries” stipulation in Ciobo’s MOU was important: there is no sign the government is keen to back any BRI projects in Australia itself.
The best-known Chinese investment in Australia of late is the sale of Darwin Port to the Chinese-owned firm Landbridge, which employs former trade minister Andrew Robb as a senior consultant.

中国最近在澳大利亚进行的最着名的投资是将达尔文港出售给中国所有的陆桥公司，该公司聘请了澳大利亚前贸易部长Andrew Robb担任高级顾问。

Defence maintained that the sale – which is not itself a BRI project – posed no national security risk, and Landbridge Australia chief, Mike Hughes, said it was simply commercially attractive because the port ships a wide range of commodities “all of which Landbridge is bullish about”.

支持者称这项出售活动——它本身不是一带一路项目——不存在国家安全风险，澳大利亚陆桥公司的首脑Mike Hughes表示，它只是在商业上很有吸引力，因为该港口运输了大量的大宗商品，“所有这些都是陆桥公司所看好的”。

Still, the episode triggered a hard look at how such sales are scrutinised and led to changes that make sure national security is more deeply woven into future decisions.

但这一事件依然引发了人们对应如何审查此类交易的认真审视，并带来了一些变化，以确保国家安全更深入地融入未来的决策之中。

The opposition’s policy is much the same as the government’s, with foreign affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong saying a Labor government would judge each project on national interest grounds. She expressed confidence there would be opportunities for collaborations with China and said these would be needed to help the region reach its economic potential.

反对派的政策与政府大同小异。外交事务女发言人Penny Wong说，工党政府将根据国家利益来评判每一个项目。她对与中国的合作机会表示有信心，并表示需要这些机会来帮助该地区实现经济潜力。



‘We should be more embracing’
Of course, any Australian company can work on a BRI project if they are contracted by a Chinese firm. But a more national approach would mean the government facilitating the involvement of Australian firms.

“我们应该更多的拥抱”
当然，任何澳大利亚公司如果与中国公司签订合同，都可以从事一带一路计划。但更全国性的做法将意味着政府在促进澳大利亚公司的参与。

Some in the business community argue that Australia as a nation should do more to get on board. Elizabeth Gaines, head of Fortescue – which has closer ties to China than most companies – said the mining firm believes “Australia should be more embracing of the BRI”.

一些商界人士认为，澳大利亚作为一个国家，应该采取更多行动参与进来。Fortescue（这家公司与中国的关系比大多数公司更加密切）的负责人Elizabeth Gaines表示，这家矿业公司认为“澳大利亚应该更多地拥抱一带一路计划”。

John Brumby, the former Victorian premier who is president of the Australia China Business Council (ACBC), paints BRI as virtually an unalloyed good that will boost growth, create opportunities for Australian businesses and also benefit the nation through increased trade in Asia.

前维多利亚州州长、澳大利亚中国商业委员会主席John Brumby将一带一路描述为一种纯粹的商品，它将促进经济增长，为澳大利亚企业创造机会，并通过增加在亚洲的贸易使国家受益。

Brumby, who is also an Australian director of the Chinese telco giant Huawei, said if Australia were “a fully fledged, signed-on member” of BRI, the opportunities for local firms would increase and there might be a project or two in Australia, notably in the north.

Brumby也是中国电信巨头华为在澳大利亚的董事，他说如果澳大利亚是一带一路的“成熟的签约成员”，那么当地公司的机会就会增加，澳大利亚可能出现一两个项目，尤其是北部。

A lot of the caution is based around … an inability to grasp the reality that the world order is changing.
Chinese President Xi Jinping at one point flagged linking the BRI to the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility, but the Turnbull government eventually declined.

很多谨慎都是基于……无法理解世界秩序正在改变的现实。中国主席曾一度将一带一路与澳大利亚北部的基础设施联系起来，但特恩布尔政府最终还是拒绝了。

As for strategic and security concerns, Brumby said: “I do think that a lot of the caution that we see in relation to China – not all of it but much of it – is not based around legitimate security concerns. It’s based around protectionism by the United States and an inability to grasp the reality that the world order is changing.”

至于战略和安全问题，Brumby说:“我确实认为，我们在与中国的关系中看到的许多谨慎——不是全部，而是大部分——不是基于合理的安全担忧，而是基于美国的保护主义以及对世界秩序正在改变的现实的不理解。”

Finally, he argued, signing on to BRI would help mend our relations with China.

最后，他认为签下一带一路协议将有助于改善我们与中国的关系。

“To state the obvious, they’re in a difficult place ... We’re getting increasing reports at ACBC of difficulties for our exporters getting products into China ... Many goods that used to take a day to get through customs now taking a week, and so on.

“显而易见，他们处境艰难……我们澳中商会正在收到越来越多的关于我国出口商向中国出口产品遇到困难的报告。许多货物曾经花一天时间就能通过海关，现在则要花一个星期，以及诸如此类。”

“Our relationship needs rescuing ... and a warmer embrace of BRI might be one way to do that.”

“我们需要修复关系……更加热情的拥抱一带一路也许是一个解决之道。”

He said Australia could learn from New Zealand, which was the first Western country to sign up in the form of a Memorandum of Arrangement with China.

他说，澳大利亚可以向新西兰学习。新西兰是第一个以与中国签署协议备忘录的西方国家。



Following New Zealand’s lead
But it’s not clear what New Zealand has gained. More than a year on from the signing of the rather vague document, a spokesman for Trade Minister David Parker, when asked what it had delivered New Zealand, said it was “still early days and we are still working through this process for engagement”.

跟随新西兰的带领
但目前还不清楚新西兰取得了什么成果。在这份相当模糊的文件签署一年多后，当被问及新西兰的情况时，新西兰贸易部长David Parker的发言人表示，“目前仍处于初期阶段，我们仍在努力推进这一进程，争取参与”。

In March, New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters openly questioned whether the previous government should even have signed the MOA.

今年3月，新西兰外交部长Winston Peters对上届政府是否应该签署《行动纲领》提出公开质疑。

My assumption is NZ saw it as a low-cost way of building political capital with China.

“我推测新西兰认为这是与中国建立政治资本的一种低成本的方式。”

Medcalf said New Zealand had in fact signed “a blank cheque” that allowed Xi to tell his own people that Western countries were lining up to sign on, while internationally reinforcing the narrative “of China as an unstoppable geoeconomic and strategic force”.

梅德卡夫表示，新西兰实际上签署了一份“空白支票”，让中国可以告诉自己的人民，西方国家正在排队等待签署，同时在国际上强化“中国是不可阻挡的地缘经济和战略力量”的说法。

“My assumption is NZ saw it as a low-cost way of building political capital with China,” Medcalf said.

“我推测新西兰认为这是一种低成本的与中国建立政治资本的方式。”梅德卡夫表示。

If the Australia-China relationship needs repair, some ask who is actually to blame for the current state of it. One seasoned figure in Canberra makes this point: Malcolm Turnbull quoted Mao Zedong in a way that upset Beijing, the government used some moderately overblown rhetoric on a few occasions, and the next minute China was punishing Australian beef and wine producers.

如果澳中关系需要修复，一些人会问，究竟是谁应该对目前的状况负责。堪培拉一位资深人士提出这个观点：马尔科姆特恩布尔引用毛泽东的话激怒了北京，（堪培拉）政府在一些场合使用了一些适度夸大的言辞，而下一分钟，中国就在惩罚澳大利亚的牛肉和葡萄酒生产商。

“Is that a country on whom you want to become more economically dependent?” the figure said.

“那是一个你希望在经济上更加依赖的国家吗？”该人士说。

Do we have a choice?
But Warwick Smith, the former Howard government minister who heads the government-funded Australia-China Council and serves as an ANZ China director, argues “there is a reality to this which is inescapable”.

我们有选择吗？
但是，曾在霍华德政府担任部长，政府资助的澳大利亚-中国理事会现任主席，并担任澳新银行中国区董事的Warwick Smith表示:“对此，存在不可避免的现实。”

China’s annual growth in recent years has been about the size of Australia’s entire economy.

近年来，中国每年的经济增量相当于澳大利亚整个经济体的规模。

“Reality will prevail. The wheel of commerce keeps turning. Money will follow trade and trade will follow money,” Smith said.

“现实会获胜。商业车轮不断转动。金钱会跟着交易而来，而贸易也会跟着金钱而来，”Smith说。

However, as important as China is, the Turnbull government’s foreign policy white paper made it clear Australia will be looking to diversify its relationships in all senses.

然而，与中国同样重要的是，特恩布尔政府的外交政策白皮书明确表示，澳大利亚将在各方面寻求关系多样化。

Is Australia going to be able to stick a spanner in its works? The Americans haven’t.

“澳大利亚能够在它的运行中起到决定作用吗？美国人都没有做到。”

China is emerging into a very different world to that which the US grew into as an unrivalled economic superpower in the 1800s. The US will remain strong, other countries such as India and Indonesia are rising - though more slowly than China - and Europe remains relevant. This is a common view in the government.

中国正在逐渐进入一个新的世界，与19世纪美国成长为无可匹敌的经济超级大国的那个世界截然不同。美国依然强大，其他国家如印度和印尼正在崛起——虽然比中国缓慢，欧洲依然不可或缺。这是政府中存在的共识。

Yet the BRI is going ahead whether Australia plays a part or not. Most observers agree there’s little we can do to shape the initiative on a large scale.

然而无论澳大利亚是否参与，一带一路都将继续前进。大多数观察人士都认为，我们基本没有办法在更大的层面影响这一计划的形态。

As one senior official put it: “Is Australia going to be able to stick a spanner in its works? The Americans haven’t.”

就像一位高官所说：“澳大利亚能够在它的运行中起到决定作用吗？美国人都没有做到。”

Unlike the China-led Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank, which Australia signed up to after a lengthy period of playing hard to get - arguably helping drive some governance improvements in the process - the BRI does not have set rules and standards.

与中国主导的亚洲基础设施和投资银行——经过长期努力后，澳大利亚签了名，可以认为，这有助于推动过程中的一些治理改进——不同，一带一路没有制定规则和标准。

Australia can put demands on projects it gets involved in, but not on the initiative as a whole - at least not alone.

澳大利亚可以对它参与的项目提出要求，但不能对计划整体提出要求——至少不能单独提出。



Don’t trap the neighbours
But there are things Australia can do with like-minded countries. Japan, for instance, is a huge infrastructure funder across Asia. Bishop also names the US, Britain, France, New Zealand, and even Germany as countries that could help provide “alternatives” in the Pacific to the BRI.

不要陷害邻国
但澳大利亚可以与志同道合的国家做一些事情。例如，在亚洲日本是一个庞大的基础设施投资国。毕肖普还将美国、英国、法国、新西兰，甚至德国指为能在太平洋地区提供“替代方案”的国家。

“What we don’t want is for countries to have no other options,” Bishop said. “We think there has to be a suite of options available to them. And Australia should take a very proactive part in that.”

“我们不希望各国没有其他选择，”毕晓普说。“我们认为必须给他们一套可供选择的方案。澳大利亚应该积极参与进来。”

In blunter terms than Australia has used before, Bishop lays out the government’s concerns that BRI, unless it is pressured through competition to lift its standards, could threaten the sovereignty of small Pacific nations.

相对于澳大利亚之前提出的条件，毕晓普更加坦率的提出了政府对一带一路的担忧：“除非通过竞争迫使其提高标准，否则它可能威胁到太平洋小国的主权。”

“We want to ensure … that they are not trapped into unsustainable debt outcomes. The trap can then be a debt-for-equity swap and they have lost their sovereignty,” she said.

“我们希望确保……他们不会陷入不可持续的债务后果。这个陷阱可能是债权交换股权，这样他们就失去了主权，”她说。

“We’re concerned that the consequences of entering into some of these financing arrangements will be detrimental to their long-term sovereignty.”

“我们担心，参与这些融资安排的后果会损害它们的长期主权。”

After Bishop's remarks were reported this week, Chinese Ambassador Cheng Jingye told reporters in Canberra it was "ridiculous" to suggest Beijing was threatening the sovereignty of small island nations by saddling them with unsustainable debt.

毕晓普的言论本周被报道后，中国驻澳大利亚大使程景业在堪培拉告诉记者，关于北京方面用不可持续的债务威胁小岛国主权的暗示是“荒谬的”。

Medcalf said any competition would be “asymmetric”. No leader, he said, is seriously proposing going head-to-head with China on steel and concrete.

梅德卡夫表示，任何竞争都是“不对称的”。他说，没有哪位领导人会认真提议在钢铁和混凝土领域与中国正面交锋。

Australia has cut its overall aid budget repeatedly, though it has directed what’s left more heavily towards the Pacific, so that it is actually spending more there now than ever.

澳大利亚已经多次削减了总体援助预算，但它已经将剩下的大部分资金投向了太平洋，因此它现在在太平洋的支出实际上比以往任何时候都要多。

But we can pick our battles to maximise our influence, Medcalf said, for instance by concentrating on telecommunications development, rivalling Xi’s “digital Silk Road”, as Australia is doing by laying an undersea internet cable to PNG and the Solomons.

梅德卡夫说，但我们可以选择我们的战斗，来扩大我们的影响力，比如专注于电信发展，与中国的“数字丝绸之路”一争高下，就像澳大利亚向巴布亚新几内亚和所罗门铺设海底互联网电缆一样。

Australia’s development assistance can help educate officials in small countries to better judge whether infrastructure offers from countries such as China are constructive, or white elephants that will leave them indebted.

澳大利亚的发展援助，有助于教育小国家的官员，更好地判断中国等国家提供的基础设施建设是否具有建设性，或者是否会让他们负债累累。

Bishop revealed she had already discussed this with British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson.

毕晓普透露她已经和英国外交大臣鲍里斯约翰逊讨论过这个问题。

“Can Australia and Britain assist them in advice on what would be an appropriate sustainable investment for them?” she said.

“澳大利亚和英国能帮助他们就什么才是合适的可持续投资提供建议吗?”她说。

Xi bearing gifts
Varghese agrees there’s a case for putting up competitive alternatives, although he points out “you do not want infrastructure to become the new battleground in the way aid was during the Cold War”.

中国带来礼物
Varghese认为提出竞争性的替代方案存在先例，尽管他指出“你不会希望基础设施成为冷战期间那种援助的新战场”。

Australia will have to hold its nerve as the Chinese steel is forged and the concrete flows. PNG Prime Minister Peter O'Neill was poised this week to sign up formally to the BRI following a meeting with Xi in China.

随着中国钢铁的锻造和混凝土的流动，澳大利亚将不得不保持冷静。在与中国举行会晤后，巴布亚新几内亚总理Peter O'Neill本周准备正式签署加入一带一路。

Xi, in turn, will likely turn up to APEC in PNG in November bearing gifts in the form of new BRI projects, says Medcalf.

梅德卡夫说，作为回报，中国主席很有可能带着新的一带一路项目作为礼物，在十一月出席巴布亚新几内亚举办的APEC会议。

“That will be a pretty bracing moment for Australia because from that point on, we’ll be competing much more directly with China in PNG,” he said.

“对澳大利亚来说，这将是一个十分让人后背发凉的时刻，因为从那时起，我们将在巴布亚新几内亚与中国进行更直接的竞争，”他表示。

Bracing doesn’t mean panicking, he stresses. This is the sort of thing rising powers do. It’s just that China’s rise has been particularly swift, and the visual, visceral demonstrations of its growing power - the roads, highways, ports, and military facilities on artificial islands - are spreading with unprecedented speed.

他强调，发凉并不意味着恐慌。这就是崛起中的大国必然会做的事情。只是中国的崛起速度特别快，而且中国力量日益增长的外在和内的表现，即公路、公路、港口和人工岛屿上的军事设施，正在以前所未有的速度铺开。

The trick, says one former national security insider, is to deal with BRI on our terms, not China’s.

一位前国家安全内部人士表示，关键在于要按照我们的方式，而不是按照中国的方式，来应对一带一路。

Mirroring a strong strain of thought in Canberra, the insider said Australia should be a “fussy customer and one that is not too desperate”.

知情人士表示，澳大利亚应该是一个“挑剔而不过于绝望的客户”，这反映了堪培拉方面强烈的想法。

“Where we have genuine national interest concerns,” he concludes, “we should push back robustly, use all the instruments of our national power, like any grown-up country.”

“我们有真正的国家利益关切，”他总结道，“我们应该像任何一个成熟的国家一样，使用我们的国家权力的所有工具，做出有力的回应。”

edwin kwan
World politics are power politic, whether by military or by money. Australia is part of this power play all along and take whatever we can in whatever way we can. The problem is not the power play but the hypocrisy that we display when our political elites suddenly seem to be so concern with the wellbeing of our neighbours. Resist by all means if one does not wish to join in anything China initiates. However, think carefully and quietly what we can do to in front of such massive financial onslaught, so that we have time and space to dig the trenches. The defeat, even if it is certain, at least look honourable rather than the the disgraceful double standard that we display so far.

世界政治都是强权政治，无论是通过军事还是通过金钱。澳大利亚一直是这种权力游戏的一部分，我们尽其所能的从中获取利益。问题不在于权力，而在于我们所表现出的虚伪，我们的政治精英似乎突然对我们邻国的福祉产生了巨大的关切。如果你不希望参与中国发起的任何活动，请尽一切办法去抵制。然而，面对如此巨大的金融冲击，请仔细、安静地思考，我们能做些什么，以便我们有时间和空间去挖掘战壕。即使我们已经注定失败，但至少那样看起来会体面一点，而不是我们迄今为止所表现出的可耻的双重标准。

Andy McClure
I have no doubt the Chinese are attempting successfully to reestablish their Empire, bigger and better than ever. Xi Jinping has already declared himself president for life. We need to be very very careful. In particular we should be looking at forming strategic partnerships with S-E Asian nations, as well as the US,India and Japan, to counter, and push back against, Chinese influence

我毫不怀疑中国人正在试图成功的重建他们的帝国，比过去都更大更好。中国已经宣布永久任期。我们需要非常非常小心。我们尤其应该考虑与东南亚国家以及美国、印度和日本结成战略伙伴关系，以抗衡和反制中国的影响力。

Kingfarra
I suspect the belt and road initiative will have a premature death if the US trade sanctions escalate, along with anti-globalisation, security needs for countries to have their own local industry and citizens with better paying jobs will push this trend along rather than become further dependant on Chinese imports.
Also if China is considered a military threat the quickest way to stop their expansion is to cut their economic growth by not buying goods from them and trade sanctions. In fact it may be cheaper option for those countries that side with the US to support such a move as being the cheapest option short of going to war in the future.
China needs the world more than the world needs China, its a country that is not a democracy with huge potential for civil unrest and a harsh government response like Tiananmen square on a much larger scale if the economy crashes as a result of the loss of trade. It may even trigger a stronger democratic movement in the country, there is a growing educated middle class who have traveled and seen what the real world has to offer!
Economically Australia and others will suffer for a few years, but I can see our exports going to new growth areas in India and Africa where labour is cheaper in the longer term. In the interim we will need to buy our TV and other electronic goods from Korea, Japan and Taiwan. You could even argue that we could redirect our $50B submarine defence spending on propping up our economy and developing our own industrial capacity if we think China will be too busy trying to keep its economy afloat to continue its aggressive expansion into the rest of the world.

我怀疑，如果美国贸易制裁升级，加上反全球化，各国由于安全需求而拥有他们自己本国的产业，以及拥有高薪工作的公民，都将推动这一趋势，而不是进一步依赖中国的进口，那么“一带一路”倡议将会过早夭折。

此外，如果中国被视为军事威胁，那么阻止其扩张的最快途径就是不从中国购买商品并实施贸易制裁，从而降低中国的经济增长。事实上，对那些与美国站在一边的国家来说，支持这一举措可能是更便宜的选择，因为这是未来除了开战之外成本最低的选择。

中国对世界的需要，超过世界对中国的需要，它是一个非民主国家，存在巨大的内部动乱的可能性，而且失去贸易会导致经济崩溃，这个严厉的政府会做出更大规模的八平方那样的反应。甚至可能在这个国家引发更强烈的民主运动，那里有日益庞大的受过教育的中产阶级，他们去过国外，看到过真正的国家需要提供的东西！

经济上，澳大利亚和其他国家会遭受几年的困境，但我认为我们的出口会转向印度和非洲这样的新兴地区，长期而言那里的劳动力更加廉价。在这个过渡时期，我们将需要从韩国、日本和台湾购买我们的电视和其他电子产品。甚至可以这么说，如果我们认为中国过度的试图保持其经济运转，以继续它在全世界其他国家的侵略扩张，我们就可以把我们500亿美元的用于潜艇的国防开支转而用于振兴我们的经济，并发展我们自己的工业能力。

stevemid
When elephants like the US and China dance, the best policy response for mice like Australia is not to get stepped on.

当美国和中国这样的大象跳舞的时候，对于澳大利亚这样的小老鼠，最好的回应策略莫过于避免被踩到。

Terryroger
Australia should just ignore China and it will go away!

澳大利亚应该无视中国就好，它会自己消失的！

Sailor2018
I lived in China in 2004 to 2007 and the Belt Road project was being published far and wide then.
It really puzzles me as to why it takes 14 years for this project to surface as news in Australia.
It puzzles me even more for Australia's media to make the very strange comments about how China's investments in the region may cut across Australia's ever diminishing minuscule Foreign Aid program.
Australia wants to spend nothing on foreign governments in the South Pacific, because it lacks vision of what the IPA wants Australia to become, other than a source of enormous wealth for the IPA members. In this scenario, there is no need to throw money at other players in the regional area.
The tragedy is that Australia has become very isolationist and this is really dangerous, after all Australia's whole population is significantly less than many Asian cities populations.
The ANZUS treaty can no longer be relied upon to shore up Australia's miserable military forces and if Australia were ever invaded, the citizens would have to use knives and forks to defend their homes, because Australians are not to be trusted with firearms. (by the way, I don't want firearms in the arms of maniacs).
Sadly, Australia has a huge target painted over the country, with the words posted above the target to other countries "Who Dares Wins" because the Australian government has abandoned all responsibility and accountability to prepare meaningful defenses against aggressive acts by hostile powers in the region and beyond.
Instead the media in Australia sprouts on about Australia being a player that boxes above its weight, that is all fine and dandy until the real shooting begins and a large force of tourists turns out to be soldiers from a hostile country that takes over the country by stealth between a Christmas day and New Years day holiday, while the military and government and civilians are all partying.

2004年到2007年我在中国生活，当时一带一路计划就获得了广泛宣传。
我真搞不懂为什么这个项目要花14年才能在澳大利亚成为新闻。

更让我更困惑的是，澳大利亚媒体居然会发表这种非常奇怪的评论，说中国在该地区的投资可能会影响到澳大利亚不断减少的微不足道的对外援助项目。

澳大利亚不愿在南太平洋的外国政府身上花一分钱，因为它自认为除了作为IPA成员的巨额财富的来源之外，对于IPA想要澳大利亚变成什么样子缺乏远景。在这种情况下，它没必要在区域内的其他国家身上浪费钱。

悲剧的是，澳大利亚已经变得非常孤立主义，这是非常危险的，毕竟澳大利亚的全部人口明显比许多亚洲城市还要少。

太平洋共同防卫组织条约不能再作为澳大利亚悲惨的军事力量的依靠，如果澳大利亚遭到入侵，公民们将不得不拿着刀叉来保护他们的家园，因为澳大利亚人不能获得信任来拥有枪支。（顺便说，我不希望枪支出现在疯子的手里。）

令人遗憾的是，澳大利亚这个国家都变成了一个巨大的靶子，在其他国家的众目睽睽之下，靶子上写着“勇者必胜”，因为澳大利亚政府已经放弃了在准备有意义的防御方面所有的责任和义务，难以阻止敌对势力在该地区及其他地区的侵略行为。

相反，澳大利亚的媒体却在煽动澳大利亚成为拳手，去打一场超过其重量级的拳击赛。这都没什么，也很热闹。然而等到枪声真正响起，我们会发现大群游客会变成来自敌对国家的士兵，他们将在圣诞节和新年假期之间秘密行动，接管这个国家。而澳大利亚的军队、政府和老百姓都在开趴体。

Thucydides
I'm afraid that "large force of tourists" would have to be very large indeed. Do you have any idea of the size of force required to launch a land invasion? In recent memory, take a look at the Gulf War. Further back, take a look at the Normandy landings. Are we to assume that the "tourists" managed to smuggle their 105mm cannons through customs? I think that might have alerted even the Border Force donkeys.

我恐怕你说的“大群游客”必须非常非常大才行。对于发动一场陆地侵略所需要的军队规模，你到底有没有一点X数？看看最近的记忆里的海湾战争。看看诺曼底登陆。你是不是以为那些“游客”能够把他们的105毫米大炮带过海关？我觉得即使边境部队都是驴子，也会警觉的。

Kingfarra
Australia cannot compete with China when it comes to financial aid and nor should we even try, it would only turn into a grubby and undignified fight to the bottom for both countries.
We should offer opportunities for closer ties with a neighbours by offering education scholarships, allow secondments in both directions between government staff from their country and our country, particularly specialist areas in food production, biosecurity and medical.
All we need to demonstrate to our neighbours is that Australia is democracy and an open society unrestrained by censorship as a constrast to what China is offering.

在经济援助方面，澳大利亚难以与中国竞争，我们甚至不应该尝试，对两国来说，到最后它只会变成一场肮脏的、有失尊严的战斗。
我们应该提供教育奖学金，允许两国政府工作人员之间双向的人员借调，尤其在食品生产、生物安全和医药等专业领域，通过这样的方式来增加与邻国实现更亲密关系的机会。
我们所需要做的只是向我们的邻国证明，澳大利亚是民主国家，也是一个不受审查的无限制的开放社会，作为与中国能提供东西的对比。

payback
Maybe we will change China when they see how progressive ideology has unified and saved Australia from the worlds problems. I always thought that China will take what they want from Australia; Not all at once, just once extra handful each time. I hope we take this advice as a gift to Earth and Human kind showing that this reasoning is a dead end for our species.

也许当中国人看到进步的理念是如何从全球问题中统一并拯救澳大利亚，我们就能改变中国。我一直认为中国会从澳大利亚拿走他们想要的东西；不是一次拿走全部，而是每次拿走一点。我希望我们能把这个建议作为礼物，献给世界和人类，以表明这种推理对我们人类来说是一个死胡同。

Adamm Ferrier
So when Australia offers $ it's called "foreign aid", but when the Chinese offer RMB it's called "imperialism"?

那么当澳大利亚提供澳元，你们称之为“外国援助”。但是当中国人提供人民币，却被你们称作“帝国主义”？

Jack
Guess what, there's nothing anyone can do about it.

你知道吗？任何人都对此无能为力。

Glenn
Only if we want to be another minnow swallowed by China's global ambitions.

除非我们想要成为中国的全球野心吞下的另一条小鱼。

ryokai
China hasn't been forthright about its intentions in the SCS. It promised 'no militarization of the artificial islands' and then it announces 'militarization of the islands for defence purposes'. Any country that constantly changes face and resorts to Cold War-style propaganda tricks is not to be trusted.

中国并未直言不讳的表达对南海的意图。它曾承诺不对人工岛屿实施军事化，然后它宣布那些岛屿的军事化是为了自卫的目的。任何一个不断改变面貌、诉诸冷战式宣传伎俩的国家都不值得信任。

Terryroger
So your solution is?

那么你的解决方法是？

SUDRAGOR7
They only said that to shut America up as they are not ready to battle them. Ironically it's likely America that they are needing those bases for as us bases virtually encircle china's coastline and us warships with missiles within minutes' reach of chinese ports and cities, sail along China s coastline daily from one US proxy to another.

他们那么说，只是为了在他们没有准备好跟美国打仗的时候，让美国闭嘴。讽刺的是，美国很有可能需要那些基地，美国的基地实际上包围了中国的海岸线，美国军舰的导弹几分钟内就可以抵达中国的港口和城市，它们每天沿着中国的海岸线，从一个代理国航行到另一个。

Jezz
Well I have already said it before. This is China's century. We are either be there or be square.

好吧，我以前就说过。这个世纪属于中国。我们要么站在他们一边，要么被摆平。

Martin
So that 1980s song "Turning Japanese" was close, but not quite right.

所以80年代那首“倒向日本人”即将响起，但不太准确。

ryokai
Good comment. At the end of the 1980s we were concerned that Japan was 'plundering out natural resources'. Look at lines from the movie 'Rising Sun' for example. Then Japan folded in the early 1990s and went into recession. Could be that China folds in the early 2020s and goes into recession.

好评论。80年代末，我们都在担心日本“掠夺自然资源”。电影《旭日追凶》里的台词就是一个例子。然而日本在90年代早期失败了，并陷入衰退。
中国会不会在2020年代失败并陷入衰退呢？

SUDRAGOR7
But Japan is a small island country smaller than california and virtually dependant on its tech sector. It lacks natural resources and for a small country with dwindling population, it does alright but was never destined to match a superpower let alone become one.

但日本是一个小岛国，比加利福尼亚还小，它实际上依赖科技产业。它缺乏自然资源，而且由于国家太小，人口减少，虽然它做的很好，但命中注定不能与一个超级大国匹敌，更何况成为一个超级大国。

John
Yep, we're stuffed. Well, at least our grandkids will be.

耶，我们吃饱了。好吧，至少我们的孙辈能吃饱。

streetsandlanes
Very very scary. I'd move to the Antarctic, but China has plans there too.

真的真的好可怕。我已经搬到了南极洲，但是中国对那里也虎视眈眈。

ralph.stone
Do the Chinese do NBN's?

中国搞国家宽带网络吗？

ryokai
Good one. Only if you're willing to accept Huawei.

说的好。除非你愿意接受华为。