中国行使贸易的力量【澳大利亚媒体】 [澳大利亚媒体]

The story of South Korea’s travails with China is a salutary one, with key ramifications for Australia.

韩国面对中国所经历的阵痛是一个有教益的故事，对澳大利亚有着重要的衍生影响。

It is about the capacity of the North Korean crisis, the joker in every pack of cards in play in our region, to cause ever-deepening problems for even the largest of companies, even though they conduct no business with Pyongyang.

这是关于朝鲜危机这张王牌让问题不断加剧的能力，在我们这个地区玩的每副牌里都有的这张王牌，甚至影响到了最大规模的公司，尽管它们跟平壤没有生意往来。

It is about Beijing’s capacity and preparedness to co-ordinate efforts to send a message — if deemed important enough strategically — even to those who seem among its closer friends, and even though it appears itself to be an economic loser as a result.

这是关于北京为了发出一个信号努力协调的能力和准备——如果在战略上被认为很重要的话——甚至是发给那些看起来跟中国更亲密的朋友，即使结果会让它看起来像一个经济上的失败者。

It is about the risks run by companies that depend especially heavily on business with a country with such a capacity to tone down or cease corporate activities through political direction — where crucial decisions may be made that are way beyond any firm’s ability to control or even significantly influence.

这是关于企业承担的风险，这些企业严重依赖与这样一个国家做生意，这个国家有能力通过政治渠道减少或终止公司活动——国家可能做出的重大决策是远远超出任何公司控制的，公司甚至无法明显地影响到国家决策。

It is about, ultimately, how a society determines its priorities when there is no easy solution, no how-to guide, no win-win path.

这最终是关于一个社会在没有简单的解决方案、没有指引说明、没有双赢的办法时，如何确定它的优先权。

Just a year ago, everything seemed set up for continuing success between South Korea and China.

就在1年前，一切看起来都是为韩国和中国之间持续的成功而建立的。

South Korea’s exports to its neighbourreached $166 billion, almost exactly twice those of Australia.It had cemented its position as China’s fourth-biggest trading partner.

韩国出口到它的邻居出口额达到了1660亿美元，几乎正好是澳大利亚的2倍。它巩固了自己作为中国第四大贸易伙伴的地位。

Its president at the time, Park Geun-hye, had gone out on a limb in September 2015 to attend the grand military parade in Beijing to mark the 70th anniversary of victory over Japan — the only leader of a US ally to do so.

它当时的总统朴谨慧在2015年9月冒着风险去北京参加纪念抗日战争胜利70周年大阅兵——是美国盟国中唯一一位去参加的领导。

This year was being set up for extended celebrations for the 25th anniversary of diplomatic ties between South Korea and China.

今年是韩中建交25周年，本来计划要进行扩展庆祝活动。

But all this has been shredded thanks to the ever-baleful influence of the Kim regime in North Korea.

但是由于受朝鲜金氏政权日益恶化的影响，计划已经破碎了。

For South Korea has, in an on-again, off-again, jerky pattern, invited the American military to install a Terminal High Altitude Area Defence system that claims to be able to spot missiles heading its way and to eliminate them while still at their peak height.

韩国方面犹豫不绝、摇摆不定、步履蹒跚地邀请了美国军方安装了一套萨德反导系统，该系统声称能够识别飞来的导弹，并能推毁还在最高段飞行的导弹。

It is the spotting that’s the problem, not the eliminating.

问题在于识别，而不是推毁。

For China — and Russia, which has similar issue with THAAD deployments in Europe — is convinced that in order to detect a missile firing early enough, this new system deploys such immensely powerful radar that it can scan not only North Korea’s potential launch sites but also those countries’ own military, including nuclear, capacities.

中国方面——还有俄罗斯对欧洲布署萨德也有同样的问题——相信为了尽早检测到一枚发射的导弹，这种新的系统所采用的强大的雷达不仅可以扫描朝鲜潜在的发射点，而且还会扫描这两个国家的军事能力，包括核能力。

Clearly, a big issue.

显然，这是个大问题。

Constant, repeated warnings about repercussions were made by Beijing, which gave Seoul much pause for thought. But eventually, as the threats of “Supreme Leader” Kim Jong-un kept ratcheting up and attempts by Seoul to kickstart negotiations were spurned, the system has been deployed — on a temporary basis — in a site in South Korea.

关于所带来的影响，北京发出了频繁且重复的警告，这给了首尔很多停下来考虑的机会。但是最终，随着“最高领袖”金正恩的威胁不断加剧，首尔想开启谈判的意图被冷落，于是就在韩国某站点——暂时——安装了这套萨德系统

Immense collateral damage is being caused to South Korean corporations, and even to a degree to South Korea’s previous massive “soft power” in China — arguably stronger than that of any other single country — in the process.

这使韩国公司遭受了巨大附带伤害，在这个过程中甚至伤害到了韩国之前在中国巨大的“软实力”——可能比任何一个国家的软实力对中国的影响都强。

The huge Lotte family-based conglomerate (or chaebol) ran 99 hypermarkets throughout China before this year’s politically-driven crunch. It was targeted especially heavily because it happened to own the golf course that Seoul decided to use to install the THAAD system.

在今年的政治摩擦之前，庞大的韩国家族式大企业乐天在全中国经营着99个大型超市。它之所以成为格外显眼的目标是因为首尔决定用来部署萨德系统的高尔夫球场正好是它所拥有的。

It has had to close 87 of those hypermarkets in the past six months — not primarily because of Chinese consumer-led boycotts, which have been encouraged by Beijing, but because Chinese officials have suspended their operations claiming violations of by-laws and have halted renovations or new projects.

它不得不在过去6个月关闭了那些大型超市中的87家——北京所鼓励的中国消费者抵制不是主要原因，而是因为中国官方暂停了他们的运营，称他们违返了规章制度，并停止了他们的革新或新项目。

The company recently injected $380 million to try to keep the show on the road, with losses this year expected to top $1bn. But Goldman Sachs is also being hired to hawk around much or maybe all of this huge China business — bigger than any owned by any Australian company in the country — for sale.

这个公司最近注资了3800万澳元，试图露一露脸，估计今年损失了超过10亿澳元。但是高盛也被雇来帮乐天叫卖，也许是要完全卖掉它在中国的庞大业务——比任何澳大利亚公司在中国拥有的业务都大。

As for most South Korean conglomerates, China is Lotte’s biggest overseas market.

对于大部分韩国大企业，中国是乐天最大的海外市场。

Emart, a Korean discount chain, announced its withdrawal this month from China after reaching 30 stores, developed patiently over 20 years.

Emart是一个韩国折扣连锁，它在中国有30个店且耐心发展了超过20年，本月宣布退出中国。

Another chaebol, Hyundai, saw its sales of cars — its core business in China, where it is the third-biggest foreign carmaker — crash 55 per cent from March to July against the previous year, at a time when competitors’ sales edged up.

另一个韩国大企业现代——它的核心业务在中国，是第三大外资汽车制造商——眼看着它的汽车销量从3月到7月相比去年萎缩了55%，同时竞争对手们的销量在慢慢上升。

Hyundai was forced to suspend its production for the last week of August because its Chinese joint venture was temporarily unable to pay a key supplier.
8月的最后一周，现代被迫暂停生产，因为它的中国合资企业暂时无法支付货款给一个关键供应商。

Its Kia subsidiary, also hit, cut production at its three Chinese factories, which employ about 30,000 people.

它的启亚子公司也受到了打击，它在中国雇佣了3万人的3个工厂降低了产量。

The THAAD fallout has also hit South Korea’s immense “soft power” with China. Tourist numbers to South Korea — Chinese accounted for almost half the total of foreign visitors last year — have fallen 40 per cent this year. K-pop performers have had concerts cancelled, cosmetic promotions have suddenly had to be rescheduled, TV soaps are no longer ubiquitous.

萨德的附带结果也打击到了韩国对中国巨大的“软实力”。去韩国的游客数量今年减少了40%——去年中国人占外国游客总数的几乎一半。韩国艺人原定的音乐会被取消，美容促销突然不得不重新安排，电视剧不再无处不在。

Beijing officially denies there is an official campaign, saying this is all a manifestation of individuals demonstrating through their changed preferences, their personal disgust with the deployment of THAAD.

北京官方否认存在官方行为，说这都是个人根据自已喜好的改变、对部署萨德的反感而表现的示威行动。

China is certainly also implementing tough sanctions against North Korea, but that trade and mutual investment, given its comparative size, was never anywhere near the importance of that with South Korea.

当然，中国也对朝鲜实施了严厉的制裁，但是考虑到它具有相当的规模，被制裁的贸易和相互投资绝对远远不会对朝鲜有那么重要。

Officially, China is making much of its championing “economic globalisation” in distinction to Donald Trump’s apparent protectionism. These “sanctions with Chinese characteristics” against South Korea tell a different story.

中国官方大力支持它的“经济全球化”，让它与特朗普明显的保护主义不同。这些对朝鲜的“中国特色的制裁”却讲述了一个不同的故事。

A similar recent campaign worked swiftly to bring Mongolia to heel, causing it to vow never to host another visit by the Dalai Lama. In South Korea’s case, THAAD’s “temporary” deployment is unlikely to be terminated soon, but Seoul may find other ways to mollify Beijing. If so, past evidence — as in anti-Japan measures — shows that normal relations can be restored surprisingly swiftly.

最近一次类似的行动迅速让蒙古国变乖，导致它发誓再也没有下一次了。在韩国这件事情上，萨德“暂时”的部署不太可能很快结束，但是首尔可能会找到其他办法缓和与北京的关系。如果那样的话，过去的证据显示两国能够以惊人的速度恢复正常关系——如反日对策。

Australia is unlikely ever to find itself so severely targeted, but these examples do raise keen questions about eggs and baskets, and about companies’ capacity to persuade Canberra to tailor policies and even rhetoric to avoid such risks.

澳大利亚不太可能会这么猛烈地被当作目标，但是这些例子提出了一些敏锐的关于鸡蛋和篮子的问题，以及关于企业说服堪培拉的能力，说服他们制定合适的政策甚至是设计一套说辞以避免这样的风险。


Malcolm2 DAYS AGO
Just had a couple of weeks in China, and communicated very successfully, as everywhere else around the world, using "WhatsApp" - suddenly, in the most cosmopolitan of Chinese cities Shanghai, BANG! - NO 'WhatsApp' availability.
I called down to the front desk of my very up-market hotel only to be told by the Front Desk, very nervously and apologetically, that "Yes, that is no longer available - the Government has disallowed it effective today!".
So much for the sweet talk and hyperbole!

刚刚在中国呆了几个星期，沟通非常顺畅，就像世界其他地方一样，使用“WhatsApp”——突然，在中国最世界性的城市上海，砰！——‘whatsapp’不能用了。
我呼叫了我住的非常高档的酒店前台，他们只是非常紧张并充满歉意地告诉我，“是的，没法再用了——政府今天不允许用了！”
有关甜言密语和夸张就讲这么多！

Thomas3 DAYS AGO
There is no such thing as North Korea. North Korea is China. It has been that way since hundreds of thousands of Chines troops swarmed across the border in the Korean War which resulted in the second withdrawal of allied forces and ending with the current armistice. China gorges itself on dirt cheap NK resources whilst using NK as a regional play toy to test its neighbours and the US. NK is used as a buffer and a bargaining chip on issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea.  In the past, a war with NK has meant a war with the USSR and since 1991, a war with China.  There is a new POTUS now and the Chinese are testing his resolve to gauge what they can get away with in the next decade.  After all, the last POTUS and current Canadian PM were/are extremely weak (from a Eastern culture perspective) and able to be manipulated and distracted easily.  The current POTUS, even with all his enemies at home, is viewed as a strong man in countries like China. The Dragon is now less bold and more cautious. The Dragon is very patient though. 

没有朝鲜这回事。朝鲜就是中国。自从成百上千的中国部队在朝鲜战争中拥入朝鲜境内时就是如此了，这导致了联军第二次撤退，以当前的停战状态结束。中国自己猛吞朝鲜肮脏又便宜的资源，同时把朝鲜当作地区玩具来测试它的邻居和美国。朝鲜被当作台湾和南中国海问题的缓冲和筹码。在过去，一场跟朝鲜的战争意味着跟苏联的战争，1991年后，意味着跟中国的战争。美国现在有个新总统了，中国人正在测试他的决心，从而判断在接下来的10年他们能逃避什么样的惩罚。毕竟，上一任美国总统和当前的加拿大总理是极其软弱的（从东方的文化观点来看），可以被人轻易地操纵和分心。当前的美国总统在一些像中国这样的国家被认为是一个强人，即使在美国国内他有很多敌人。这条龙现在没那么胆大了，更谨慎了。但是这条龙很有耐心。

john3 DAYS AGO
China doesn't have to apply sanctions to Australia. All they have to do is mobilise their internal supporters. Remember the human right demonstrations in Canberra when the Olympic torch went through. They had 50000 in the streets within 36 hours.

中国不必对澳大利亚制裁。他们只需要动员他们在我们的内部支持者。记得奥运火炬到这里时，堪培拉的人权游行。街上有50000人进行了36个小时。

Peter3 DAYS AGO
The answer is don't do business with Communist regimes.

回答是，不要跟中国做生意。

Thomas3 DAYS AGO
@peter Exactly. Surely India can be built up to replace China.

正是，印度可以发展起来取代中国。

George3 DAYS AGO
The sooner countries around the world wake up, and start supporting their manufacturing and businesses instead of buying everything from China, cheap and without import duty, the less the pain will be when the crunch comes. I see it coming very clearly. Will take a while yet.....

全世界的国家越早醒来开始支持他们自己的制造业和商业而不是买中国的一切便宜又没有进口税的东西，当崩溃来临时，痛苦就越少。我非常清楚地看到崩溃正在来临。还要花点时间。

Geoff3 DAYS AGO
"Chinese officials have suspended their operations claiming violations of by-laws and have halted renovations or new projects." 
And they'll do this to you too, whoever you are, if the mood takes them. 

“因为中国官方暂停了他们的运营，称他们违返了规章制度，并停止了他们的革新或新项目。”
如果他们不高兴了，他们也会对你这么干的，不管你是谁。

Jim3 DAYS AGO
Call China for what it is; a communist dictatorship! They are not our friend and business is the only connection because they need our stuff. The minute they don`t we are off the menu. Play the game for sure, but do not forget who and what runs China.

中国就是中国！他们不是我们的朋友，生意关系是我们唯一的关系，因为他们需要我们的东西。一旦他们不需要了，我们就会被除名。游戏当然要玩，但是别忘了中国是什么国家。

Messiah3 DAYS AGO
And the US, Europe and other western countries are completely innocent. No these nations never use sanctions and market access to punish those peoples with a different view to themselves except of course when it serves their national interests, like buying oil from Saudi Arabia.

而美国，欧洲和其他西方国家是完全无辜的。这些国家没有一个从来没有使用过制裁，通过市场手段惩罚那些跟他们有不同观点的人，当然，除非能符合他们的国家利益，比如跟沙特买石油。