冷战大三角，美国、俄罗斯和中国，巴基斯坦黎明报读者评

Triangular cold war

冷战大三角

Ashraf Jehangir QaziUpdated April 07, 2018

A TRIANGULAR cold war is developing which could be much more dangerous than the 20th-century Cold War. This new cold war ranges the US against Russia and China.

一场冷战大三角一触即发，它可能比20世纪的冷战更加危险。这场新冷战主角包括美国、俄罗斯、中国。

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The US remains the world’s number one military, S&T, economic and financial power. However, despite its global full-spectrum dominance, it is challenged in Europe and the Middle East by Russia, in East Asia by China, and in Central and South Asia by both.

美国仍然是世界头号军事、科技、经济和金融强国。然而，尽管它在全球范围内占据主导地位，但它在欧洲和中东受到俄罗斯的挑战，在东亚受到中国的挑战，在中亚和南亚受到中俄双方的挑战。

The Pentagon officially says the “long war” against international terrorism is drawing to a close. It argues “the US must bolster its competitive military advantage relative to the threats posed by China and Russia” because “inter-state strategic competition, not terrorism, is now the primary concern in US national security”. It concludes “the US-dominated global order today is challenged not by Al Qaeda and ISIS but by the aggressive behaviour of China and Russia”.

五角大楼表示，针对国际恐怖主义的“长期战争”即将结束。它辩称，“美国必须增强其相对于中国和俄罗斯构成的威胁的竞争军事优势”，因为“现在美国国家安全的首要关切的是国家间的战略竞争，并非恐怖主义。”报告指出:“如今由美国主导的全球秩序，受到中国和俄罗斯咄咄逼人的挑战。而不是由基地组织(Al Qaeda)和ISIS发起的挑战。”

According to Prof Michael Clare “a permanent campaign to contain Russia and China in Eurasia has begun. The US military has committed itself and the nation to a three-front geopolitical struggle to resist Chinese and Russian advances in Asia, Europe and the Middle East”. Centcom commander, Gen Votel, told the Senate “the containment of China and Russia has become an integral part of Centcom’s future strategic mission”. Of particular concern is “the Chinese-managed port at Gwadar in Pakistan” which could contribute to “China’s military posture and force projection”.

据迈克尔•克莱尔教授称，“遏制俄罗斯和中国在欧亚大陆的长期行动已经开始。美国军方已承诺进行三面地缘政治斗争，以抵制中国和俄罗斯在亚洲、欧洲和中东地区的进入。”中央司令部司令官Gen Votel告诉参议院，“对中国和俄罗斯的遏制已成为中央司令部未来战略任务的一个组成部分”。特别值得关注的是“中国管理的巴基斯坦瓜达尔港”，这可能有助于“中国的军事姿态和武力投射”。

What are the implications of a new cold war for Pakistan?

新冷战对巴基斯坦意味着什么?

This answers questions why the US plans a long-term presence in Afghanistan and why it is concerned with Gwadar, CPEC and the Belt and Road Initiative. This is also the context within which it pressures Pakistan on Afghanistan, terrorism and its nuclear arsenal, and in which it has recruited India to its strategic camp.

这就回答了为什么美国计划长期在阿富汗驻军，以及美国为什么关心瓜达尔、中巴经济走廊和“一带一路”倡议。这也是为什么美国在阿富汗、恐怖主义和核武库方面对巴基斯坦施加压力，并将印度纳入其战略阵营。

The current spate of US and Western accusations against Russia and diplomatic expulsions increasingly seems an orchestrated prelude to a new cold war.

目前美国和西方对俄罗斯的指责和外交驱逐，似乎越来越像是拉开了一场新冷战的序幕。

The US aims to sanction and isolate Russia into withdrawing from Ukraine and Syria, disengaging from its strategic embrace of China, abandoning its developing understanding with Iran and Turkey, and refraining from building a significant political presence in Afghanistan.

美国的目标是制裁并孤立俄罗斯，使其退出乌克兰和叙利亚，分离其对中国的战略支持，放弃其与伊朗和土耳其的发展谅解，并避免其在阿富汗建立重要的政治势力。

Russia may be economically vulnerable but militarily and politically it is strong. Moreover, Russians admire Putin because even if he has not delivered democracy and prosperity he embodies Russian defiance and resilience.

俄罗斯可能经济上很脆弱，但在军事和政治上都很强大。此外，俄罗斯人崇拜普京，即使他没有实现敏煮和繁荣，他也展现了俄罗斯的反抗和坚韧。

Russia has developed Sarmat 2 missiles which it claims the US cannot intercept. If true, it would have a nuclear first-strike capability. The US claims a similar capability. A US-Russian mutual first-strike capability is extremely destabilising.

俄罗斯已经开发了Sarmat 2导弹，并声称美国无法拦截。如果属实，它将拥有第一核打击能力。美国也声称拥有类似的能力。美俄两国相互的第一核打击能力是极其不稳定的。

In case of a serious military confrontation, neither side could risk not striking first. During the last cold war a shared second-strike capability helped avert such doomsday scenarios.

如果发生严重的军事对抗，双方都不可能先冒险。在上次冷战期间，相互的二次打击能力避免世界末日的出现。

Despite mutual suspicion, China does not want Russia humiliated and destabilised by a US that regards China as its main adversary. The renewed American cold war with Russia and possible trade war with China brings both countries together.

尽管相互猜疑，但中国不希望俄罗斯受到美国的羞辱和破坏，而美国将中国视为其主要对手。美俄之间的新冷战以及中美之间可能的贸易战，使中俄关系更加紧密。

The blustering Trump is a weak leader whom neither Moscow nor Beijing can trust to control his hawks. This is the opposite of what Nixon and Kissinger achieved. They exploited Sino-Soviet mistrust and enabled the US to become the preferred interlocutor for both China and Russia.

气势汹汹的特朗普是一个软弱的领导人，无论是莫斯科还是北京都不信任他。这与尼克松和基辛格的成就背道而驰，当年他们利用了中苏之间的猜疑，使美国成为中国和俄罗斯的首选对话者。

Today, according to Prof James Petras, “while China exports economic products, the US exports arms and wars.

如今，詹姆斯•佩特拉斯教授表示:“中国出口经济产品，而美国出口军火和战争。”

The US has a surplus of arms exports and a growing commercial deficit. China has multibillion-dollar infrastructure investments in over 50 countries that enhance trade surpluses. The US has multibillion-dollar expenditures in over 800 military bases that enhance trade deficits”.

美国的武器出口过剩，而商业赤字不断增加。中国在50多个国家拥有数十亿美元的基础设施投资，贸易顺差不断增加。美国在超过800多个军事基地上花费了数十亿美元，贸易赤字愈发膨胀。

Moreover, a “trade war with China will result in higher prices for the US consumer, unskilled labour, war debts and financial monopolies. China will simply divert trade from the US to other countries and redirect its investments towards deepening its domestic economy and increasing ties with Russia, Asia, Africa, Latin America and Oceania”.

此外，“与中国的贸易战将给美国消费者、非熟练劳动力带来战争债务和金融垄断价格的上涨。中国可以简单地将贸易从美国转移到其他国家，并将其投资转向深化国内经济，加强与俄罗斯、亚洲、非洲、拉丁美洲和大洋洲的关系。”

America’s response is to rely on its military supremacy to compensate for its woeful diplomatic and economic strategies.

美国的反应是依靠军事优势来弥补其糟糕的外交和经济战略。

What are the implications of a new cold war for Pakistan? US demands to “do more” will further escalate.

一场新冷战对巴基斯坦意味着什么？美国“做更多”的要求将进一步升级。

The US-Indian strategic alliance will deepen as the US remains distant and demanding towards Pakistan. India will progressively if not completely downgrade its strategic relations with Russia. It will bide its time with China which in turn will keep a door open to India, especially if Pakistan remains dysfunctional.

随着美国对巴基斯坦的疏远和要求，美印战略联盟将深化。如果不完全降低其与俄罗斯的战略关系，印度将会循序渐进。印度将等待时机，中国将反过来向印度敞开大门，尤其是如果巴基斯坦仍然应对不当的情况下。

India would expect very significant transfers of military and development technology from the US and its allies, enabling it to eventually engage with China on less disadvantageous terms, at the expense of Pakistan.

印度将期待美国及其盟友在军事和发展上大量转移技术，使其在与中国接触的过程中能够减少不利条件，以巴基斯坦为代价。

Apart from these grave implications of a new cold war for Pakistan, the 21st century poses existential challenges that have been largely ignored by derelict governments and educationally and ethically challenged leadership, abetted by the narrow security focus of an overwhelming ‘deep state’. Pakistan’s population will be 400 million in 30 years.

除了新冷战对巴基斯坦的严重影响之外，21世纪还提出了新的挑战，这些挑战在很大程度上被玩忽职守的政服及挑战教育和道德的领导层所忽视，这些挑战是由一个势不可挡的狭隘焦点所推动的。巴基斯坦的人口将在30年内达到4亿。

Climate change threatens water scarcity and loss of agricultural land leading to widespread famine and disease. Human security is also threatened by deliberate underfunding for general, vocational and S&T education; generating family-supporting jobs in a global knowledge economy; providing adequate health and other basic services; developing institutional capacities and credibility; reforming the criminal justice and police systems; ensuring the rule of law; and guaranteeing human rights protections.

气候变化导致水资源的短缺和农业用地的流失，造成大面积的饥荒和疾病。人类安全也受到了威胁，普通、职业和科技教育的资金不足；在全球知识经济中创造家庭支持的工作；提供足够的保健和其他基本服务；发展机构能力和信誉；改革刑事司法和警察制度；确保法治；保障人权。

The government doesn’t even want to know about these challenges. They can only be addressed by good governance at home; deeper geostrategic and geo-economic cooperation with China and Russia; good and substantive if non-strategic relations with the US based on addressing each other’s concerns; a non-confrontational, dialogue-based and problem-solving working relationship with India despite outstanding differences and futile provocations; and developing mutual confidence with Afghanistan. I have suggested specific measures (see ‘Who is listening?’ in Dawn, Oct 9, 2017.)

政服甚至不想知道有什么挑战。这些挑战只能通过一些渠道来解决：善政廉政；深化与中国和俄罗斯的地缘战略和地缘经济合作；在处理彼此关切的问题上与美国保持良好而实质性的关系；与印度建立一种非对抗性、对话解决问题的关系，尽管与印度存在明显分歧；与阿富汗建立互信。我之前提出了具体的措施（详见2017年10月9日黎明报文章《谁在听》）。

Longer-term perspectives, rational mindsets, due diligence and honest common sense are what is required for policies to develop credibility, direction and momentum. Political and other non-civilian policy decision-makers should listen to and consider objective, professional and relevant advice and input.

长期的观点、理性的心态、尽职调查和诚实的常识是政策发展可信度、发展方向和发展势头所需要的。政治和其他非民用政策决策者应该听取和考虑客观、专业和相关的建议和意见。

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, India and China and head of UN missions in Iraq and Sudan.

本文作者曾任驻美国、印度和中国大使及联合国驻伊拉克和苏丹特派团团长。

Published in Dawn, April 7th, 2018

巴基斯坦黎明报读者的评论

Indian Rao

Apr 07, 2018 07:43am

Sir ! You have written an excellent article which reflects perfect existing situation in the world. Unlike other writers who simply present the problem , you have mentioned good solutions to pakistan. Hats off to you sir.

先生！文章写得很好，完美反映了世界的现状。不像其他的作家仅仅提出问题，你还给巴基斯坦提出了解决方案。向您致敬，先生。

 

A

3 days ago

What are the implications of the Triangular Trade War ! Opportunity to increase export ! This is how Indian industry is looking at the changing scenario.

三角贸易战意味着什么？增加出口的机会！印度工业就是这样看待这种不断变化的形势。

 

Pnpuri

3 days ago

China l trade with USA is 20% of its top 10 trading partners. It is doubtful whether china can find alternative market for its trAde with USA in near future .muscle flexing by USA or Russia is only fa show for other countries of world. China may replace Russia at a later stage. But one wonders on that case whether russi will be with china or USA in that eventiality

美国是中国十大贸易伙伴之首，占比20%。很怀疑中国能否很快就找到美国的替代市场。美国或俄罗斯秀肌肉只是给其他国家看的。这就不禁要问一下，在这种情况下，俄罗斯最终会和中国还是美国站一起。。

 

Jalaluddin S. Hussain

3 days ago

The following conclusion by the above learned foreign policy thinker makes a lot of sense:

"Longer-term perspectives, rational mindsets, due diligence and honest common sense are what is required for policies to develop credibility, direction and momentum. Political and other non-civilian policy decision-makers should listen to and consider objective, professional and relevant advice and input."

上述的外交官的结论很有道理:

长期的观点、理性的心态、尽职调查和诚实的常识是政策发展可信度、发展方向和发展势头所需要的。政治和其他非民用政策决策者应该听取和考虑客观、专业和相关的建议和意见。

 

5 Alba

3 days ago

Washington's wish to contain China is more myth than truth. Aside from Trump and the naval Joint Chief, Americans and American business have no desire to contain China. The US military only wants China to obey longstanding international maritime laws like other nations. One million Americans vacation in China each year. American business can never abandon their relations with Chinese companies. This is more a rational for Pakistan think tanks than a reality.

华盛顿希望遏制中国的愿望，与其说是事实，不如说是神话。除了特朗普和海军参谋长，美国人和美国企业都不想遏制中国。美国军方只希望中国像其他国家一样遵守长期以来的国际海洋法。每年有100万美国人到中国度假。美国企业决不会放弃与中国公司的业务往来。对于巴基斯坦智囊团来说，这比现实更合理。

 

SHAHID SATTAR

3 days ago

No one is listening to the voice of reason. Every one is busy making hay while the going is good. As if tomorrow won't come?

没有人在听理性的声音。每个人都在抓住机会赚钱。搞得好像没有明天似的？

 

deva

3 days ago

@Alba Read news and dont believe on conspiracy theories. There is tariff imposed on chines import in USA and that's truth.

@Alba看新闻，不要相信阴谋论。中国对美国征收进口关税，这是事实。

 

Sheeda Tully

3 days ago

well argued. but is it really possible to keep everyone happy?

头头是道。真的能博取每个人的开心吗？

 

10 Global Peace

3 days ago

what an exciting time to be alive

活着是多么令人兴奋啊！

 

GOOD POINT

3 days ago

Good analysis. Waiting for change in Pakistans policy for good of atleast south asia

分析的真好。等着巴基斯坦改变南亚的外交政策

 

 

Talha

3 days ago

Usa should be kicked out of afghanistan

把美国人赶出阿富汗

 

Bilal Khan

3 days ago

Good read!

很精彩

 

15 M. Saeed

3 days ago

If learning from history is anything to go by, Afghanistan should be starting in the immediate future an examplary development. For example, examine the meteoric rise of Japan, Germany, Korea, Singapore/Malaysia, Vietnam etc., after their wars.

如果从历史来看的话，阿富汗以后将成为一个发展范例。看看日本、德国、韩国、新加坡、马来西亚、越南等国战后的崛起之路。

 

Wror

3 days ago

Reading your articles has always been a pleasure

读你的文章是一种享受

 

Asad

3 days ago

An excellent article

写得很好

 

Mohini Kutir

3 days ago

As usual, very thoughtful and forward looking piece.

又是一篇很有思想，具有前瞻性的文章。

 

20 USR

3 days ago

Excellent analyses. Add to this Irfan Hussain's suggestion in his article for trade with India, and you have a recipe for prosperous Pakistan.

分析得很好。结合Irfan Hussain关于与印度贸易的建议，还你一个繁荣的巴基斯坦。

 

 

Iftikhar Husain

3 days ago

Very good analysis of the current world affairs.

对目前国际形势分析的很透彻。

 

Peas

3 days ago

If Pakistan makes peace with India, it won’t grave to engage in these calculations.

如果巴基斯坦跟印度和平相处，就不会陷入僵局了。

 

waqar yousaf

3 days ago

well briefed and excellent solutions for problems upcoming.

为可能出现的问题提供了出色的解决方案。

 

25 Maria enteparia onnuchoriu

3 days ago

A great insight, India is going to develop very fast and become an economic super power and cann't be ignored by China. Chino- India economy will be interlinked in such a way that neither will be in a position to threaten the other.

见解深刻，印度发展很快，将成为一个经济超级大国，中国不可能忽视它。中印经济将以这样一种方式相互联系，双方都不可能威胁到对方。

 

Azmeen

3 days ago

An excellent balanced article. Wish those who matter in Pakistan power corridors learn.

好文，希望掌权的人好好看一下。

 

LOYAl

2 days ago

Spot On. Hope our Establishment take these into consideration and build a sustainable basis for growth and prosperity by investing in Technology and Education.

干货。希望我们的当权者能够把这些因素考虑在内，通过技术和教育投资，为经济增长和繁荣建立一个可持续的基础。

 

vijay

2 days ago

Sir thank you for an excellent analysis of "Cold War" between the three superpowers. These super powers will play games and sacrifice any third world nation if it suits them. The best policy for any third world country is not to take any sides and don't get involved.

先生，感谢您对这三个超级大国之间“冷战”的精彩分析。这些超级大国玩游戏时会牺牲第三世界国家。对于第三世界国家来说，最好的政策是不要偏袒任何一方，也不要参与其中。

 

KenSAM59

2 days ago

Interesting article. Well said sir.

很有趣的文章，说的真好，先生

 

30 AWAN

2 days ago

Very good article.. Please make it more deeper, I mean research more to make more interesting and valuable informative. And try to inform the people to read please. Keep it up.

好文。写的更深入些，我的意思是研究更多更有趣和有价值的信息。