印度时报：中国导弹改变空中力量平衡

Chinese missiles are transforming balance of power in the skies

中国导弹改变空中力量平衡

Bloomberg | May 8, 2018, 10:51 IST

NEW DELHI: For a quarter century, the US and its allies owned the skies, fighting wars secure in the knowledge that no opponent could compete in the air. As tensions with Russia and China surge, that’s no longer the case.

新德里：25年来，美国及其盟友控制了天空，没有对手能与之匹敌。随着美国与俄罗斯、中国的紧张关系加剧，这种情况已不复存在。

Rapid technological progress in China’s aerospace industry, particularly air-to-air missile systems fired from an aircraft, is changing the game for Western air forces and the global arms trade. It’s also altering the picture for China’s neighbors such as India.

中国航天工业技术，尤其是从飞机上发射的空对空导弹系统进步神速，正在改变西方空军和全球军火贸易的格局。这也改变了中国的邻国，比如印度。

Russia took the lead in modernizing its air force, and has been more willing to use it. In the longer term, however, China’s roughly $13 trillion economy and growing wealth mean it is likely to pose the greater strategic challenge for the US and its allies. In 2017, Chinese defense spending rose by 5.6 per cent in constant US dollar terms, while Russia’s fell by 20 per cent, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. China spent $228 billion last year and Russia $66.3 billion, SIPRI said.

俄罗斯率先开启空军现代化之路，并且更愿意使用空中力量。然而，从长远来看，中国13万亿美元的经济总量和不断增长的财富意味着，它可能会对美国及其盟友构成更大的战略挑战。斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所（SIPRI）的数据显示，2017年，中国的国防支出增长了5.6%，而俄罗斯则下降了20%。SIPRI表示，中国去年的国防支出为2280亿美元，而俄罗斯为663亿美元。

“We had an environment where we could do whatever we wanted in the air, and what the Chinese have done is to say you no longer can,” said Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. As a result, US commanders now have to take into account potential loss rates for pilots and aircraft that they haven’t had to face since the 1980s.

国际战略研究所军事航天高级研究员道格拉斯•巴里表示：“过去，在空中，我们可以，而中国人所做的表明，你们再也不能这么做了。”因此，美军指挥官现在不得不考虑到自上世纪80年代以来，飞行员和飞机的潜在损失率。

The US air force remains the strongest by far. Yet the Chinese advances come at a sensitive time, as the US appetite to continue its role as global policeman fades. Meanwhile President Xi Jinping has set ambitious goals to dominate advanced industries like robotics and artificial intelligence and to assert Chinese interests in the disputed South China Sea and beyond.

迄今为止，美国空军仍是最强的。然而，中国的进步正处在一个敏感的时期，因为美国继续扮演全球警察的渴望将逐渐消失。与此同时，中国国家主席制定了雄心勃勃的目标，要控制机器人和人工智能等先进产业，并在南海及其周边地区维护中国的利益。

The catch-up by Russia and China has been a long time coming, triggered in each case by shock at the ease with which the US air force demolished opponents in the 1990s, according to Vasily Kashin, a specialist in military aviation at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics at the National Research University.

俄罗斯国立研究大学莫斯科高等经济学院的军事航空专家瓦西利•卡什表示，俄罗斯及中国的赶超行动已经持续了很长时间，在上世纪90年代，美国空军轻而易举地摧毁了对手，引发了各方的震惊。

For China, that moment came during the first Gulf War, when an American air campaign swiftly crushed the Iraqi military, at the time better equipped than China’s. For Russia, he said, the wake-up came in 1999, when a US-led bombing campaign forced Serbia to withdraw troops and tanks from its own province, Kosovo.

对中国来说，这一时刻是在第一次海湾战争中出现的，当时美国的空袭行动迅速击溃了伊拉克军队，当时伊拉克的装备比中国的要好。对俄罗斯来说，这一觉醒发生在1999年，当时美国领导的轰炸行动迫使塞尔维亚从自己的省份科索沃撤军。

Taiwan (which China considers a province) has also been a factor for Beijing. The US called in two aircraft carrier battle groups to support the island during a dust-up with China in 1996 and has provided $18 billion in arms since 2008.

台湾也是北京的一个因素。在1996年与中国的一次交锋中，美国出动两艘航母战斗群支持台湾，自2008年以来美国向台湾提供了价值180亿美元的武器。

Some of China’s biggest strides are coming in air-to-air missiles, the weapons that for one or two million dollars can destroy a $150 million aircraft. That’s a cost efficient way of trying to level the playing field with the US. China’s defense budget is well over three times as big as Russia’s or India’s, but still much lower than the $610 billion the US spends, according to SIPRI.

中国最大的进步是空对空导弹，一、二百万美元的武器可以摧毁一架1.5亿美元的飞机。这是与美国竞争的性价比最佳的方法。据SIPRI数据，中国的国防预算是俄罗斯或印度的三倍，仍远低于美国的6100亿美元。

In March, the US Air Force awarded a half-billion-dollar contract to supply close allies with Raytheon Inc.’s latest long range air-to-air missile, capable of hitting enemy planes from 100 miles (160 kilometers) away. The Meteor, a new European equivalent, may be even more deadly. But China’s latest offering, the PL-15, has a greater range than either.

In March, the US Air Force awarded a half-billion-dollar contract to supply close allies with Raytheon Inc.’s latest long range air-to-air missile, capable of hitting enemy planes from 100 miles (160 kilometers) away. The Meteor, a new European equivalent, may be even more deadly. But China’s latest offering, the PL-15, has a greater range than either.

今年3月，美国空军批准了一份价值50亿美元的合同，为雷神公司最新的远程空对空导弹提供紧密盟友，能够击落100英里（160公里）以外的敌机。相当于欧洲的流星，甚至可能更致命。但中国的最新产品，霹雳-15射程更广。

AIRBORNE WARNING

空中预警

The PL-15 also supports an active electronically-scanned array radar that makes evasion difficult for the most agile of fighter jets. Russia has yet to succeed in equipping its own missiles with the technology. When the PL-15 was first tested in public, then-US Air Force Air Combat Command chief Herbert “Hawk” Carlisle was concerned enough to call on Congress to fund a response.

霹雳-15采用一种有源电子扫描阵列雷达，即使最敏捷的战斗机也难以逃出生天。俄罗斯还没有成功地装备该技术的导弹。当霹雳-15首次在公开场合测试时，当时的美国空军空战司令部司令霍克·卡莱尔十分关切地呼吁国会为其提供资金。

Another Chinese air-to-air weapon in development, provisionally known as PL-XX, would strike slow-moving airborne warning and control systems, the flying neural centers of US air warfare, from as far away as 300 miles. At closer quarters, China’s new PL-10 missile is comparable to the best “fire-and-forget” equivalents, meaning any dogfight would likely end with a so-called mutual kill, a significant deterrent.

中国的另一种空对空武器，简称PL-XX，将从距离300英里打击缓慢移动的空中预警和控制系统，即美国空战的飞行神经中枢。距离近一点的话，中国的新型PL -10导弹可媲美“一劳永逸”导弹，这意味着任何一场混战都有可能以所谓的相互杀戮而告终，这是一种重要的威慑力量。

“In the United States we’ve been on holiday for 25 years and maybe a little bit more,” Michael Griffin, under secretary of defense for research and engineering, said in a recent address to the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank. “We failed to continue to fund the practices that had gotten us where we were, which was at the very top of the technological heap.”

国防部研究和工程部副部长迈克尔·格里芬在华盛顿智库哈德逊研究所最近的一次演讲中表示，“美国已经度了25年的假了，也许还更长一些。我们没能继续资助那些让我们在技术上处于领先地位的做法。”

Griffin said he was especially worried by Chinese and Russian progress in developing carrier-fleet killing hypersonic missiles that the US, as yet, lacks the space-based capacity to detect in time to shoot down. The planes to deliver China’s new armory of missiles have also improved dramatically, with new fleets developed from Russian air frames. This year, the air force is set to receive the last of 24 state of the art SU-35S fighters from Russia, while China has begun deploying the Chengdu J-20, a home-grown stealth fighter.

格里芬表示，他特别担心中国和俄罗斯在发展航母战斗群的高超音速导弹方面取得进展，而美国目前还缺乏能够及时探测并击落的能力。携带新型导弹的飞机也有显著改进，新机队由俄罗斯航空公司开发。今年，俄罗斯最后一架苏-35战斗机将交付中国空军，而中国已经开始部署成都歼-20战斗机，这是一架国产的隐形战斗机。

Combat modeling by think tank Rand Corp. found that China last year, for the first time, had achieved parity with the US in air superiority for any conflict close to its mainland, including over Taiwan.

智库兰德公司的战斗建模发现，去年，中国首次实现了与美国在任何靠近中国大陆（包括台湾）冲突的空中优势地位。

To be sure, China still has a long way to achieve conventional -- let alone nuclear -- parity with the US at a global level. Its jet engine technology remains weak and reliant on Russia, while its suite of new weapons are largely untested in combat. So are its pilots, still considered inferior to their Western counterparts in training and tactical skills.

可以肯定的是，在全球层面上，要实现与美国常规武器对等，中国仍有很长的一段路要走，更不用说核武器了。中国的喷气发动机技术仍然薄弱，依赖于俄罗斯，而它的新武器装备在很大程度上都没有经过实战检验。飞行员在训练和战术技能方面仍然不如西方飞行员。

Yet Chinese pilots, planes and weapons don’t have to be better than their US counterparts to radically change battlefield calculations. The J-20, for example, has poor engines and is thought by aviation experts to be more easily detected from the rear and sides than a US F-22 “Raptor”. But it would be hard to spot on approach and has a large weapons bay capable of hiding anti-ship missiles. That makes it a considerable threat.

然而，中国的飞行员、飞机和武器并不一定要比美国同行更好才能彻底改变战场的计算。例如，歼-20的发动机性能差，航空专家认为它比美国的F-22“猛禽”更容易从后方和侧面被探测到。但是很难在航路上找到一个能够隐藏反舰导弹的大型武器舱。这是一个相当大的威胁。

China’s new aircraft, combined with the latest air-to-air, cruise, anti-ship and Russian S-400 air-defense systems (considered the world’s best) “have made the ability of the US to operate in contested areas very high risk,” said Tim Heath, a senior international defense researcher at Rand.

兰德公司高级国际防务研究员蒂姆·希思表示，中国的新飞机，加上最新的空对空导弹、巡航导弹、反舰导弹和俄罗斯S-400防空系统（世界上最好的防空系统），使美国在有争议的地区采取军事行动的风险非常高。

This shift isn’t just important for the US. India has watched with trepidation as Russia supplies Beijing -- and Beijing supplies Pakistan -- with more sophisticated weaponry.

这种转变不仅对美国很重要。俄罗斯提供北京，而北京提供巴基斯坦更尖端的武器，印度已感到不安。

China and Pakistan have co-produced the JF-17 fighter since 2007, with Russia providing high quality engines. In March, Chinese media reported the JF-17 will be upgraded with active array radar, allowing it to detect and fire on targets from a greater distance.

自2007年以来，中国和巴基斯坦联合生产了JF-17战斗机，装备俄罗斯的优质发动机。今年3月，中国媒体报道称，JF-17将升级为有源阵列雷达，使其能够从更远的距离探测和打击目标。

According to Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Russia’s potential approval for China to resell its jet engines to Pakistan was the most frequent topic of discussion at weekly meetings of the National Security Council when she was assistant secretary to the NSC Secretariat from 2003-2007. If Pakistan’s jets were equipped with the new radar and China’s PL-10 missiles, now available for export, India’s aging Russian MiGs would struggle to compete, she said.

根据Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan的说法，在其2003年至2007年担任国家安全委员会秘书处助理秘书时，俄罗斯可能批准中国将其喷气发动机转卖给巴基斯坦，这是国家安全委员会每周会议上讨论最频繁的话题。她表示，如果巴基斯坦的喷气战机装备了新雷达和中国的霹雳-10导弹，那么印度老化的俄罗斯米格战机将难以抗衡。

The arms sales are symptomatic of a much more worrying regional realignment of Russia – traditionally India’s biggest arms supplier – with China, said Rajagopalan, now head of the Nuclear and Space Policy Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi think tank. “The Russians are in a weak position now, and they feel it is better to be in the Chinese camp,” she said.

印度新德里智库观察家研究基金会的核与空间政策倡议负责人拉贾戈帕兰表示，俄罗斯对中国的武器销售是更令人担忧的地区重组的一种表现。俄罗斯是印度最大的武器供应国。目前俄罗斯现在处于弱势，他们觉得最好是在中国的阵营里。

India last month put out an international call for bids for a $15 billion contract to provide 110 new combat aircraft. Pakistan has just over 100 JF-17s and is producing 25 new ones a year.

印度上月发出国际招标，意图签署一份价值150亿美元的合同，采购110架新战斗机。巴基斯坦有100多架JF -17，每年还生产25架。

Beijing’s technological progress is also having knock-on effects beyond South Asia. China has moved from its traditional position as a provider of cheap small arms to poor nations, to become the world’s number three arms trader in volume terms. That includes the sale of armed drones to Saudi Arabia, Iraq and other nations to which the US declined to sell its Reaper drone technology.

北京的技术进步也对南亚产生了连锁反应。中国已经从以前的向贫穷国家提供廉价武器的供应商，转变为世界第三大军火贸易商。其中包括向沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克和其他国家出售武装无人机，而美国拒绝出售其“死神”无人机技术。

Some missiles China developed with Russian help are now considered as good if not better than the originals, and are on the international market.

中国在俄罗斯帮助下研发的一些导弹，目前在国际市场上被认为跟原版一样好，甚至更好。

Russia, at least, isn’t overly concerned by competition from the expanding military capabilities next door, according to Kashin. “They are certainly a growing power,” he said of China. “But they are not omnipotent, and they are Russia’s partner.”

卡什表示，至少俄罗斯不会因为中国不断扩大的军事实力而过度担忧。“中国肯定是一个正在增长的力量，但他们并非无所不能，他们是俄罗斯的合作伙伴。”

印度时报读者的评论

Brainuser69 With Brain

12641

brainuser69 with brain-3 hours ago

China gives USA shivers down the spine. They humilated Fenku by runing map of India on his visit to China showing parts of India as parts of China.

中国让美国脊背发凉。莫迪访华时，他们所展示的印度地图，将印度的部分地区划入中国。

 

Ankit

3442

Ankit-2 hours ago

In 1947 India and China were almost same development wise.....But look where we are now if we compare with China...Congress never had interest in progress of our country......Finally Modi is doing something for our country

1947年，印度和中国发展程度相当。看看现在……国大党对发展不感兴趣……还好，莫迪在为国家做事。

 

BASNBB

13747

BASNBB-Mumbai-2 hours ago

while China is doing quite good in technology, we are just fighting each other on the useless issue. Communist govt is all the wy better than corporate govt.

中国技术还不错，而我们在小问题上斗来斗去。

 

Vishal Sheth

7590

Vishal-Mumbai, India-1 hour ago

China progressing in AI, robotics and Indians obsessed with killing people over cows. Dark times ahead.

中国的人工智能、机器人技术进步显著，而印度人为了牛而杀人，还活在黑暗时代。

 

ChaChaChow

7178

Chachachow-2 hours ago

We need strong PM like Indira Gandhi. Bania Modi pleaded with Chinese I have come to do vyapar not waar.

我们需要英迪拉·甘地那样强势的总理。

 

Irfan Irfan-Islamabad-2 hours ago

Remind you, Pakistan will induct block 3 of JF 17 in 2018, which has extended range of flight and New BVR with enhanced range.

提醒你，巴基斯坦将在2018年引入第三批JF 17，飞行范围和射程都有所提高。

 

Deadpool

2298

Deadpool-1 hour ago

I don't want to say much, I am gonna only say that the missiles are MADE IN CHINA.

不想说太多，只想说导弹是在中国制造的。

 

Wasim Sheikh

4138

Wasim-Ahmedabad-1 hour ago

History says...nothing is permanent..neither US nor china...time changes and the powers too...

历史告诉我们……没什么是永恒的。无论是美国还是中国…时代变了，实力也会变……

 

Ulhas Kulkarni

18143

Ulhas-Navi Mumbai-2 hours ago

Traditionally, there was only one GLOBAL policeman BOMBING the rest of the world. Soon, there may ne TWO bombardiers.

现在这个世界只有一个全球警察在轰炸其他国家。不久后，可能会有两个。

 

BOLD

7487

BOLD-INDIA-1 hour ago

we can progress only by strong ruling govt and able leadership.... all our leaders are useless, they need to fight all time to retain power or manage majority

只有强大的政服和能干的领导人才能带来进步，我们的领导都很没用，只知道争权夺利。

 

Mohammed Shakeel

1944

Mohammed Shakeel-1 hour ago

The cost to India air force will be a lot when Pakistan receives these missiles. Facts are chins russia and Pakistan will work to deter the USA puppet India.Russia hates India after hugging trump your main ally gone to Pakistan thank you modi.

巴基斯坦收到这些导弹后，就能给印度空军造成重创。中国、俄罗斯和巴基斯坦将努力阻止印度成为美国的傀儡。莫迪拥抱特朗普后，俄罗斯恨死印度了，谢谢你，莫迪。

 

Aamir Khan

4909

Aamir Khan-2 hours ago

India does not need to worry as its Lord USA is always there to help it against mighty China. USA will create a threat for China in shape of India and it will use India for countering China.

印度不需要担心，你们的主人美国会帮助你们对抗强大的中国。美国将对中国构成威胁，将利用印度来制衡中国。

 

 

Vibhu Bansal

4787

Vibhu Bansal-New Delhi, India-35 mins ago

Big difference is India followed a policy of being against US. Had we allied with US & UK (natural partners due to democracy) than Soviet Union (always skeptical since they & China had communism) since 1965 and things would have been different today.

印度以前采取了反美政策。如果从1965年以来，我们就与美英结盟，而不是跟苏联结盟，今天的情况会有所不同。

 

Dhruba Gogoi

1176

Dhruba-Delhi-1 hour ago

Some toilet paper readers.... opens article, sees the word "China"...gets triggered....comment....(sits in peace)

某些印度厕纸报的读者，一看到中国这个词，就忍不住评论。。。。

 

Vishwa Kumar

4197

Vishwa Kumar-1 hour ago

Just to keep US at bay Russia joined hands with Chinese

为了牵制美国，俄罗斯与中国联手了。