到2060年，哪个国家会更强大，中国还是印度?

Speculation (financial): By 2060, will India or China be more powerful? Why?

到2060年，哪个国家会更强大，中国还是印度?为什么？

 

Quora评论翻译：

Gwydion Madawc Williams, Read a lot about this

China and India were roughly equal in 1950. Since then, China has consistently grown faster. Both benefited from a conditional opening-up to the wider world once they had laid the foundations for independence, but China has done it better.

在1950年，中国和印度的实力大致持平。从那以后，中国的增长速度一直在加快。在为独立奠定基础之后，两国都得益于有条件的对外开放，但中国做得更好。

Either might fall apart. But most of what's now China has consistently been part of a single state over the past 2000 years and more. And disunity has mostly been between rivals aspiring to rule the whole, not regional kingdoms wanting mostly to live their own lives.

两国都有土崩瓦解的可能。但在过去的2000年甚至更长的时间里，目前中国的大部分地区一直都是各自为政的。分裂主要发生在渴望统治整个国家的竞争对手之间，地区王国都希望各自为政。

China has also modernised its culture.

中国也实现了文化上的现代化。

In India, all is confusion. The socialism of the Congress Party has weakened, while Hindu Nationalism alienates many. Older values remain enormously strong.

在印度，一切都很混乱。国大党的社会主义变弱了，而印度教的民族主义疏远了很多人。古老的价值观依然非常强大。

 

来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/45818.html    译者：Jessica.Wu

外文：https://www.quora.com/Speculation-financial-By-2060-will-India-or-China-be-more-powerful-Why

 

Extra, 2nd April 2015.

Western sources have got people beliving that China only started making economic progress after Mao. If you read them carefully, they never state this bluntly or give any definite figures. They give a misleading impression by talking just about what went wrong and not what was achieved.

西文史料让人们相信，中国是在毛之后才开始实现经济进步。如果你仔细阅读的话，他们从来不会直截了当地说出来，也不会给出任何确切的数字。他们只是谈论出了什么问题，而不是取得了什么成就，从而造成令人误解的印象。

 

Neel Kumar, Lived there for 16+ years, visit often enough.

Too early to tell.

现在还言之过早。

Long version:

We are in 2013. 2060 is 47 years away. About 2 generations. This is a HUGE amount of time. Would either country even be around? The ethnic, religious and linguistic diversity of India is well noted. China is even more diverse - ethnically, linguistically and religion wise, something that most people do not get a chance to grasp.

现在是2018年，还有42年才到2060年，时间跨度很大。印度的民族、宗教和语言的多样性是众所周知的。中国的民族、语言和宗教更加多元化，但对此大多数人都没有机会了解。

And there are tremendous pressures on both these countries. There is pressure to grow economically and a pretty fast pace. Both countries are seeing the effects of economic liberalization:

这两个国家都承受着巨大的压力，面临着经济快速增长的压力。两国都看到了经济自由化的影响:

Wider disparities in income, wealth and access to opportunities.

More dissemination of information and hence more pressure on the political elite to keep secrets.

Skewing of sex-ratio. Both countries prize sons over daughters and sex-selective abortions are pretty rife.

Falling fertility rates - which can be a boon or a curse depending on how you look at it.

Rapid urbanization - And cities are where revolutions are fomented.

1.收入、贫富差距越来越大2.信息传播更为广泛快捷，所以政治精英面临着更多的保守秘密的压力。3.男女比例失调，两个国家都重男轻女，选择性堕胎非常普遍。4.生育率下降，这可能是好事也可能是坏事，这取决于你如何看待。5.快速的城市化——城市往往是引发革命的地方。

Now add in immigrant returnees, corruption, scandals and the speed at which things are changing and I am surprised that these two countries (which I consider artificial) have not already fallen apart.

再加上移民海归、腐败、丑闻以及事态发展的速度，我很惊讶这两个国家还没有土崩瓦解(我所说的是人为的)。

 

Anonymous

i think India will be way more powerful than China in 2060.

many countries hate China. so as time goes by, China is likely to become more and more isolated in the world arena, while India on the other hand has many extremely friendly reltionship with countries like USA, EU, Russia, Japan, Australia etc.

This will be a huge advantage for India in the long run.

Also, India will have more people than China in 2060. That means, after USA, India will be the largest economy of the world.

Furthermore, India is a democracy. China on the other hand is communist. India's soft power will also likely be unmatched.

我认为到2060年，印度将比中国强大得多。

很多国家都讨厌中国。因此，随着时间的推移，中国在世界舞台上可能会变得越来越孤立，而印度则与美国、欧盟、俄罗斯、日本、澳大利亚等国家保持非常友好的关系。从长远来看，这将是印度的一大优势。

此外，到2060年，印度的人口将超过中国。这意味着，继美国之后，印度将成为世界上最大的经济体。而且，印度是一个敏煮国家，而中国则是共产国家。印度的软实力也可能无与伦比的。

 

Venu Vasudevan, Verbal Milliner

Neither. There is a tacit assumption in this question that cheap and abundant human capital is going to be the basis of power in 50 years. By 2060, the IQ of robots will far exceed humans, and cheap human capital will not be a competitive advantage. If I had to bet, I would say Canada will be a major power (land, natural resources, low population, strong education, rule of law, fairly entrepreneurial, lack a tendency to wage wars other than hockey).

两者皆无可能。在这个问题上，有一个默认的假设，即廉价而充裕的人力资本将在50年后成为权力的基础。但是到2060年，机器人的智商将远远超过人类，廉价的人力资本将不再是竞争优势。如果让我打赌的话，我会说加拿大将会成为一个超级大国(土地，自然资源，人口少，优质教育，法治，创业精神，除了曲棍球外没有发动战争的倾向)。

 

Joseph Wang, Ex-VP Quant - Investment banking - Hong Kong

I think they will be evenly matched. Even if China and India have wildly different economic outcomes, the Himalayas insure that they won't come into direct confrontation.

Also by 2060, I think that everyone will be talking about the cool new power, the African Union.

我认为它们将会势均力敌。即使中国和印度有着截然不同的经济成果，喜马拉雅山也确保了它们不会发生直接对抗。

同时，我认为到2060年，每个人都将谈论酷炫的新力量——非洲联盟。

 

Crisis Maven, studied at Life and Living

In 2060 China

我认为到2060年，中国会更强大。

 

Anonymous

i think by 2060 India will be the greatest country on Earth.

expansionist countries like china, that have no respect fro human right and a communist government, can in no way compete with democracy like India in the long run.

我认为到2060年，印度将成为世界上最伟大的国家。

像中国这样的扩张主义国家，不尊重人全，从长远来看根本无法和印度那样的敏煮国家竞争。

 

Hemanshu Desai, 11 answers with 10 or more upvotes

It is almost certain that US, China India will be the most powerful countries in the world. Out of these three, who will rank where is difficult to predict.

几乎可以肯定的是，美国、中国、印度都将成为世界上最强大的国家。在这三家公司中，很难预测具体的排名。

 

Warren Wai, travelled around China and knows about her politics

China vs India now.

There are 5 banks from China in the top 10 (HSBC is largely Hong Kong owned) and there's 20 from China in the top 100. The top 3 banks are Chinese. India has 1 in top 10 (ranked 10th) and that's the only bank in top 100.

Out of the top 10 companies, 3 are from China (ranked 2nd to 4th). India has none, not even in th top 25.

Soft power

Out of the top 10 information technology companies in the world, China has 2. India has none.

Out of the top 10 internet companies, China has 4. India has none.

目前中国和印度对比:

排名前10的银行中，有5家中国银行(汇丰银行主要由香港控股)，前100名中有20家中国银行，排名前三都是中国银行。印度只有1家进入前10名(排名第10)，而且是唯一一家进入前100名的银行。

排名前10的大公司中，有3家来自中国(排名第二到第四)。印度没有一家入围，甚至连前25名都没有一家。

软实力：

在全球十大信息技术公司中，中国有2家，而印度没有一家。

在排名前10的互联网公司中，中国有4家，而印度没有一家。

If you go to Paris, London, Tokyo or NewYork City, all the large shops where the tourists frequent have Chinese speaking staff. Chinese tourists are the biggest spenders in the world (since they are the richest by far). Indian tourists are negligible in numbers.

如果你去巴黎、伦敦、东京或纽约，所有游客经常光顾的大型商店都有会说中文的员工。中国游客是世界上最大的消费群体(因为他们是迄今为止最富有的人)。印度游客的数量可以忽略不计。

Power from Economic Development

China is doing far better than India for decades and there is no way India can catch up in the next 40 years.

经济发展：

几十年来，中国的表现远远优于印度，印度不可能在未来40年赶上中国。