美版知乎：如何看2030的印度、巴基斯坦和中国

How do you see India, Pakistan and China in 2030?

你怎么看2030的印度、巴基斯坦和中国?

Quora评论翻译：

Chandravadan Trivedi, former Retired Fishery Scientist

China: an important trade partner in Africa & would have its foot prints in South America. Trump would have leveraged his acumen to decelerate Chinese commerce in US & its allies. Having improved India’s health, China will be irked & would be firing all cylinders to curtail India’s growth.

India: Modi would have straightened the lives of majority of Indians, & with bubbling economy, Trump would have reposed more faith in India, an axis with Britain - Japan - France & Germany with these 2 biggest democracies would become a strong group to take on Chinese hagemony. Future countries to join this group would be Brazil, Indonesia, Australia, Ukraine, & Norway.

中国：非洲的重要贸易伙伴，并将在南美留下足迹。特朗普本可以利用自己的聪明才智，减缓中国在美国及其盟友国的商业活动。在印度的状况改善之后，中国将感到厌烦，并将竭尽全力遏制印度的增长。

印度：莫迪会改善大多数印度人的生活，随着经济泡沫的出现，特朗普会对印度抱有更大的信心，英、日、法、德将与这两个最大的敏煮国家结成轴心，成为一个强大的团体，去挑战中国的霸权。未来加入该组织的国家将是巴西、印度尼西亚、澳大利亚、乌克兰和挪威。

 

Ruddy, Article at At CA Firm (2012-present)

Thanks for A2A :)

It is good question about future of close neighbours.

INDIA :

• During the next four decades, India is likely to be able to achieve a real per capita GDP growth rate of 5.5%. As a consequence, measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, India—the fourth largest economy today—will overtake Japan by 2020 and the United States by 2040.
• In next 25–30 years India need to invest more in infra.
• Metro rail will be effective in 15–20 major cities by 2030.
• In space sector ISRO will rule.
• More terror activities in India which ultimately improve combat capabilities of Indian soldiers. India will introduce more lethal weapons in next decades which are under process.
• By 2030 there is no chance of India become developed nation.

PAKISTAN :

• Seeing to current political situation, there is high chance of winning hafez saeed or there may be milatry rule.
• Recently UN put PK in “GREY LIST” for funding terrorist activities. There are high chance of Black list & many sanctions May imposed in soon years.
• PK economy wholly depend on CPEC which may restrict development.

CHINA :

• Chinese economy will boom in next decade with 2times.
• Recent trade war if continous may badly affect economy of China.
• Promoting PK & remain silent in UN may show unfaith among rest of nation in China.
• There may be decisive change on issue of south china sea.

NOTE : IT IS JUST VIEW WITH NO RESPOSIBILITY THAT VIEW MAY ACHEIVE. FORECAST ARE GIVEN CONSIDERING THE RECENT & LIKELY HAPPEN SITUATION.

印度:

• 在接下来的四十年里,印度是有可能实现5.5%人均GDP增长率。结果，以购买力平价(PPP)计算，作为当今第四大经济体的印度将在2020年超过日本，在2040年超过美国。
• 在未来25-30年里，印度需要在基础设施方面投入更多。到2030年，15-20个主要城市的地铁将开始运营。ISRO将统治太空领域。
• 印度发生将更多恐怖活动，最终提高了印度士兵的作战能力。印度将在未来几十年引进更多致命武器。
• 然而，到2030年，印度不可能成为发达国家。

巴基斯坦:

• 从目前的政治形势来看，赢得哈菲兹•赛义德的可能性很大，或者可能将由军政府统治。

最近联合国将巴基斯坦列入资助恐怖活动的“灰名单”。列入黑名单的可能性很大，可能在不久的将来对其实施多项制裁。

• 巴基斯坦经济将完全依赖“中巴经济走廊”，这可能会限制其发展。

中国:

• 在未来十年，中国经济将快速增长，翻两番。
• 最近的贸易战如果持续下去可能严重影响中国经济。
• 在联合国支持巴基斯坦可能会让其他国家对中国产生不信任感。
• 南海问题或发生决定性变化。

注:以上观点只是基于近期可能发生的情况，给出的预测。

 

Darshan Gowda, lives in India (2000-present)

No one can be so sure about the future but yah you can predict.

So here is what I see….

Economic conditions…

Pakistan - if Pakistan resolves it international conflicts & continue to have good relationship with it's allies than it is surely going to make some good. But (goo to the first word)

China - if China does not fix it's international and neighborhood conflicts on trade then I see a huge drop in it's economic growth. But being a huge nation you can't say what's coming.

India - if I write on what I'm seeing then Indian can jump on the chart to 2nd position in economic growth leaving China & rusia. Having only America to be suppressed to be a economic giant.

Defense….

Pakistan - it is well know that Pakistan spends 27% of it's total income on defense so if it survives next 5 to 10 years it can have a really strong military power.

China - is already having a strong military support 2nd largest in the world presently. But if it faces any sort of crisses then we may see a cut off on military expansion.

Indian - is presently the fourth biggest military regime in the world so in upcoming we might grow even stronger.

没人能确定未来将发生什么，但可以预测。

以下是我所能预见的：

经济方面：

巴基斯坦：如果巴基斯坦解决了国际冲突，并继续与盟友保持良好关系，那么它肯定能实现一些增长。

中国：如果中国不解决国际贸易冲突，以及和邻国之间的贸易冲突，那么我认为中国的经济增长将大幅下滑。但中国是一个大国，你无法预测未来会发生什么。

印度：印度在经济增长方面将跃升到第二位，超过中国和俄罗斯。只待超越美国，成为经济巨人。

国防：

巴基斯坦：众所周知，巴基斯坦的国防开支占其总收入的27%，如果它能在未来5到10年继续保持，它就能拥有真正强大的军事实力。

中国：目前已经拥有世界第二大军事实力。如果它面临任何形式的危机，我们可能会看到其军事扩张进程被切断。

印度：目前是世界第四大军事强国，接下来可能会变得更强大

 

Bharat Nadhani, former Ex Mg Director

India likely to topple Chinese Economy and its Army Power, provided :

1.Reservation will go by 2025

2.No subsidy to so called pretended poor.

3.Efficiency must be rewarded and downsizing the administrative wings of all the Governments.

4.The Governor of State may be elected like President and the elected M.P of that state will perform the duty of assembly. No need to maintain such large sized and number of two tier Assebly. Expenses without sufficient return! If one Governor can govern two state, one M.P may attend both the house of Law.

5.Court will deliver its verdict within 730 days.

6.More reliance on Taxes and sale of NSC , KVP will be stopped. It gives incentive to states to spend undesirable heads like Advertisement, Stone foundation ceremony etc.

7.The regime of Flower, stole and gifts to be stopped till the loan is reedeemed

The Economy of China will be onslaught for lesser demand from India and Anglo Saxon Countries.

Pakistan will continue to betray the China. For geophysical presence , China can not part the Pakistan & North Korea. So both will be baggage for China.

印度有可能超过中国的经济和军事实力，如果：

1.在2025年取消预留制

2.取消给伪贫困户提供补贴。

3.必须提高效率，给予奖励，缩减少所有政府行政部门的规模。

4邦首由选举产生，就像选总统一样。邦首直接履行议会职责，没有必要维持如此大的规模和双层议会。花出去的费用根本没有足够的回报!如果一个邦首可以管理两个邦，那他就可以同时出席两邦议会。

5.法院能在730天内做出判决。

6.更多的依靠税收。各邦停止在在不受欢迎的头像的花费，如广告、石雕塑奠基仪式等。

中国经济将受到来自印度和盎格鲁-撒克逊国家需求减少的冲击。

巴基斯坦将继续背叛中国。由于地缘政治因素，中国不能分割巴基斯坦和朝鲜。因此，二者都将成为中国的包袱。

Sunil Kumar Soni, former CEO

Well about China I can say for sure that they will be a super power both militarily and economically. Regarding Pakistan if it does not mend its way and continues its activities one being Kashmir ranting they are going to be a failed state at the bottom of the economic ladder. I will be deeply sad if they attain this position, for a weak Pakistan will be detrimental to Indian border. No wealthy person would love a beggar as his neighbours.

我可以肯定地说，中国将成为军事和经济上的超级大国。至于巴基斯坦，如果它不改过自新，一意孤行，他们将成为一个失败的国家，落到经济阶梯的底部。如果他们落到如此地步，我将深感悲哀。一个弱小的巴基斯坦也会对印度边境造成不利影响。没有富人会喜欢像乞丐一样的邻居。

 

Praveen Kumar

India Vs Pakistan goes to war in 2030 . Plz leave India , terrorist are mess . It's truth u have to believe me. India great loss in economic & people loss. Pakistan wiped off from the earth. China doesn't interfere in these.

印度和巴基斯坦将在2030年开战。赶紧离开印度，恐怖分子将把印度搞得一团糟。你必须相信我，这是事实。印度经济和人民将损失惨重，但巴基斯坦将从地球上消失。对此，中国将不进行干预。

 

Venkatarama Muthuswami, former UN Retiree as Senior Professional Official at UNICEF (1961-1997)

In terms of economic power, the order will be China far ahead, India, and Pak.

Environmental decay: India, Pak and China.

Governance model : continue the different types of messy soup

在经济实力方面：中国将遥遥领先、印度紧随其后，巴基斯坦垫底。

环境恶化排名：印度、巴基斯坦、中国。

治理模式：继续不同类型的混乱

 

Chandrasekaran Nair, Off-shore Installation Manager (OIM) at --- (2000-present)

Two nations will merge with under one constitution. Other one will washed away from world political Map

有两个国家将合并在同一部宪法下，其中一个将从世界政治版图上消失。

 

Subhendu Roy, GM with Mahesh Prefab Pvt Ltd. (2008-present)

2030

China - the next USA

India - the next China

Pakistan - Well, that is a tough one to answer!!

到2030年：

中国——下一个美国

印度——下一个中国

巴基斯坦——很难回答!!

 

Vishal Singh, studied Indian Pride (2017)

Through my eyes…jokes apart.

China will lead global market and become global leader leaving USA behind.

India will stand firmly in second position, and their will be two superpowers, both from Asia.

Pak will go more backward and all pakis state will fight each other. In other words Pak has no future.

在我看来：

中国将引领全球市场，成为全球领导者，把美国甩在后面。

印度将稳居第二的位置，中国和印度将成为两个超级大国，两国都是来自亚洲的超级大国。

巴基斯坦会更加落后，所有巴基斯坦邦都会互相争斗。换句话说，巴基斯坦没有未来。

 

Duvvuri Venkataramakrishna, Ex Civil Engineer With BSNL,, Consultant & Valuer

As friends if humanity is moving forward in terms of better civilisation and brotherhood.

如果文明和兄弟情谊向前发展，他们将成为朋友。

 

Bharath Bhat, Servant at Global Populace (1987-present)

The latter two in tatters.

后面两个国家将支离破碎。

 

Quora User

China will surpass the US to become world’s largest economy, but US will hold the status of superpower till 2035–40. Then after 2030 , world will see China as nearly superpower. India is doing and devoloping amazingly under current Modi Govt. If Modi continues to rule till 2030 or at least 2024 then there will be no doubt that India will be 3rd largest economy by GDP nominal. However Per capita income will be low in compared to other emerging powers and it may take next 40–50 yrs to come into descent PCI. Also After 2030 India will be a eye catching Investment destination for the world. And no doubt India will be seen as a major defence ally or partner to tackle growing influence of China-Russia Collaboration. But also it is true that China-India had a symbiotic relationship in terms of trade, mainly for China. However, Pakistan’s future will be very tricky in future. Though China is their big ally but Chinese r not so fools that will invest in a country of no future. And it may also happen that Pakistan will be captured by Chinese because of their debt. And on the other side India is also playing very playful trick to cut water supply of 2 rivers from Jammu&Kashmir. Even now they have only 2months money to survive and may going to take 13 bailout from IMF. Terrible future for pakistan- No Money,No Water,Grey Listed(And maybe Black Listed in Future, who knows) and ultimately no future. Sorry Pakistanese. World class future for China, no doubt and Developed Future for India, except PCI but people will be benifited mainly from Govt schemes.

Thanxx

中国将超越美国成为世界上最大的经济体，但美国的超级大国地位将持续到2035-40年。2030年后，世界将把中国视为超级大国。如果莫迪继续执政到2030年或至少2024年，毫无疑问，印度将成为名义GDP第三大经济体。然而，与其他新兴国家相比，印度的人均收入将较低。2030年后，印度将成为世界瞩目的投资目的地。毫无疑问，印度将被视为一个重要的国防盟友或合作伙伴，以应对中俄合作日益增长的影响力。但中印在贸易方面确实存在一种共生关系，主要是对中国而言。然而，巴基斯坦的未来将非常棘手。虽然中国是他们的强大盟友，但中国人不会愚蠢到投资一个没有未来的国家。巴基斯坦也有可能因为债台高筑而被中国占领。另一方面，印度将切断查谟和克什米尔两条河流的水源。即使是现在，他们的钱也只够花2个月了，而且可能要接受国际货币基金组织的第13次救助。巴基斯坦的未来是可怕的——没钱，没水，上了灰名单(也许将来要上黑名单呢)。巴基斯坦最终是没有未来的，中国的未来是世界级的。印度的未来无疑是发达的。

 

Anil Gokhale, Author, Story teller (2011-present)

Pessimist and Optimist

Theory X and Theory Y in economics tells us about individuals in terms of economics and management science. Theory X is an authoritarian style where the emphasis is on “productivity, on the concept of a fair day's work, restriction of output, on rewards for performance. It reflects an underlying belief that management must counteract an inherent human tendency to avoid work”. Theory Y is a participative style of management which “assumes that people will exercise self-direction and self-control in the achievement of organisational objectives to the degree that they are committed to those objectives”.

Same is true for all If-Then-Else type of hypothetical questions.

The question here is similar - How do you see India, Pakistan and China in 2030? And note that 2030 is not 2130 i.e. not far off future but a realistic near future , a predictable future, a set of years - say 12 years from now!

And all the countries are not volatile. But take the case of Syria (2011) and East Germany (1980).

Take Syria. Till early 2011, Syria was stable under Bashar al Assad was in command. Economy was progressive.  For common man, life may not be enviable but peaceful. Retrospectively can we ask this question - How do you see Syria in 2020? We see Syria under threat of survival. Almost every Syrian is a refugee- whether in their own country or in Christian Europe. Nobody wants them - whether in their own country or in Christian Europe. None cares for them in their own land or outside.

Could we ask this question to East Germans or anyone else in 1980 and get the correct answer as we see it today? How do you see East Germany in 1990?

经济学中的X理论和Y理论从经济学和管理学的角度讲述个体。X理论是一种威权主义风格，强调“生产率、公平工作的概念、产出限制、绩效奖励”。它反映了一种基本信念，即管理必须消除人类逃避工作的固有倾向。Y理论是一种参与式的管理风格，它“假定人们在实现组织目标时，会按照他们对这些目标的承诺程度，进行自我指导和自我控制”。

对于所有“如果-则-否则”类型的假设性问题也是如此。这个问题也是类似的，请注意，2030年不是2130年，也就是说离我们不远，而是一个现实的、可预测的未来，就在12年后!

所有国家都不稳定。以叙利亚(2011)和东德(1980)为例。直到2011年初，叙利亚在巴沙尔·阿萨德的领导下一直很稳定，经济进步。对于普通人来说，生活可能不是令人羡慕的，但至少是平静的。回顾过去，我们可以提这样一个问题——你如何看待2020年的叙利亚?我们看到叙利亚面临生存威胁，几乎每一个叙利亚人都是难民——无论是在自己的国家还是在信奉基督教的欧洲。无论是在自己的国家，还是在信奉基督教的欧洲，都没有人想要收容他们，没有人在乎他们。

我们能否在1980年对东德或其他国家提出这个问题，并得到我们今天看到的正确答案?你如何看待1990年的东德?

 外文：https://www.quora.com/How-do-you-see-India-Pakistan-and-China-in-2030