争夺科技主导地位，中国借鉴了美国的经济模式，印网友评

Battle for tech dominance: China has appropriated the US economic playbook. Can the US reclaim it?

争夺科技主导地位: 中国借鉴了美国的经济模式。美国能夺回主导权吗?

By Ramesh Jagannathan and Pablo Hernandez-Lagos

A full-blown trade war is on between the US and China, and we shouldn’t be surprised. The US has used tariffs before to protect its industries, with mixed results. Will the US be better off after imposing this latest round of tariffs? The Trump administration’s fixation on escalating these conventional trade war tactics misses the big picture: if the US government doesn’t start heavily investing in technology, with private firms following suit, tariffs aren’t going to matter. The US will have handed over global economic leadership to China, and it won’t be easy to get it back.

美国和中国之间正在进行一场全面的贸易战，在我们看来这也不足为奇。美国以前曾利用关税保护本国工业，结果好坏参半。美国在征收最新一轮关税后，情况会好转吗? 特朗普政府一门心思升级这些传统的贸易战战术，忽视了大局。美国将把全球经济主导权移交给中国，而要夺回主导权并不容易。

As global societies are propelled into the Second Machine Age, the battle for economic supremacy is fought at the digital frontlines for global leadership in artificial intelligence and machine learning methods. The US government itself acknowledged in its National Artificial Intelligence Research and Development Strategic Plan that China leads the US in terms of scientific publications in AI research. The Chinese government has taken an “all hands on deck” strategy in unveiling its 2030 plan to become the global AI superpower by officially declaring AI as a new engine of economic development. It has laid out a finely curated “three steps” game plan to create a $150 billion AI industry by 2030.

随着全球社会被推进到第二次机器革命，为了争夺在人工智能和机器学习领域的全球领先地位，经济霸权的战斗正在打响。美国政府在其《国家人工智能研究与发展战略规划》中承认，中国在人工智能研究方面的科研成果领先于美国。中国公布2030年全球人工智能超级大国计划，采取了“全员参与”的战略，正式宣布人工智能是经济发展的新引擎，制定了精心策划的“三步走”计划，计划到2030年创造价值1500亿美元的人工智能产业。

The harsh reality for the US is this: AI will add $16 trillion to the global GDP by 2030 of which China is projected to take almost half ($7 trillion) whereas US will have less than a quarter ($3.7 trillion). The not-so-secret sauce of economic prosperity has always been technology. As the 21st century unfolds, as machine and human brains entangle to become one, the dominant impact of technology investment on society is a “no brainer”.

对美国来说，残酷的现实是: 到2030年，人工智能将为全球GDP贡献16万亿美元，而中国预计将占其中近一半(7万亿美元)，而美国将占不到四分之一(3.7万亿美元)。经济繁荣的秘方一直是技术。随着21世纪的到来，随着机器和人脑结合在一起，科技投资对社会的主要影响是“无需动脑”。

The US owes much of its technology leadership to European technologies, to government’s investment in basic and applied research and risk capital. China is following in US footsteps, but at a much faster pace. Starting from the pro-market economic reforms in 1978 China has copied, improved and commercialised technologies developed in the US. For example, in the two recent breakthrough gene editing technologies invented in the US, China is either “neck and neck” in terms of research publications (CRISPR/Cas systems) or way ahead (TALENs).

美国的技术领先地位在很大程度上要归功于欧洲的技术、政府对基础和应用研究的投资以及风险资本。中国正在追随美国的脚步，但步伐要快得多。从1978年的市场化经济改革开始，中国对美国开发的技术进行复制、改进和商业化。例如，美国最近发明的两项突破性基因编辑技术，中国要么在研究成果(CRISPR/Cas系统)方面“并驾齐驱”，要么遥遥领先(TALENs)。

Chinese giant Tencent, for example, founded its AI lab in 2016 and in the same year copied the ground breaking algorithms of AlphaGo (created by the startup DeepMind) that beat Lee Sedol, the world champion Go player. Now, Tencent has created its own Go programme called ‘Fine Art’ that defeated Ke Jie, the current top Go player in the world for the last three years, despite giving him a significant head start.

例如，中国巨头腾讯在2016年创建了人工智能实验室，同年还复制了阿尔法狗(由初创公司DeepMind创建)的突破性算法，后者击败了世界围棋冠军李世石。如今，腾讯创建了自己的围棋程序“绝艺”，打败了过去三年的全球顶级围棋选手柯洁。

When Apple announced the release of iPhoneX, its signature product in several years touting its facial recognition technology, 450 million Chinese customers of Alipay were already using facial recognition to access their mobile digital accounts. In fact, China today sells to the US $57 billion more in advanced technology products (ATP) than what it buys from the US. Moreover, China is the single largest seller of ATP. 34% of US ATP imports in 2017 came from China; almost twice the share coming from Europe, 19%.

当苹果宣布推出iPhoneX时，支付宝的4.5亿中国用户已经在使用面部识别技术。事实上，中国今天向美国出售的先进技术产品(ATP)比从美国购买的产品多出570亿美元。此外，中国是ATP的最大销售商。2017年美国ATP进口的34%来自中国;几乎是从欧洲进口的两倍，欧洲进口份额占19%。

Though China’s real GDP per capita is about one-fifth that of the US its R&D spending, 2.1% of GDP, is close to the 2.8% of GDP in the US. The government strongly encourages entrepreneurship and claims that more than 15,000 new businesses register every day on average. China now hosts two out of the three most valuable startups in the world: Chinese Didi Chuxing ($56 billion) and Meituan-Dianping ($30 billion) follow US Uber ($63 billion).

虽然中国的实际人均GDP约为美国的五分之一，但其研发支出占GDP的2.1%，接近美国的2.8%。政府大力鼓励创业，声称平均每天有1.5万多家新注册企业。在全球最有价值的三家初创公司中，中国目前占据了两家:中国的滴滴出行(560亿美元)和美团点评(300亿美元)，紧随美国的优步(630亿美元)之后。

While tariffs or other less visible protectionist measures might increase sales of some US technology in the short term they do little to spur investments in new technology, further aggravating the tendency for generalised lack of investment by US firms. Meanwhile, advanced technology firms in China would focus on tapping into the internal middle class market, projected to be three times as big as the US middle class, just as the US did post World War II.

尽管关税或其它不太明显的保护主义措施可能在短期内增加美国某些技术的销量，但无助于刺激对新技术的投资，这将进一步加剧美国企业普遍缺乏投资的趋势。与此同时，中国的先进技术公司将专注于开发国内中产阶级市场（就像美国在二战后所做的那样），预计这一市场规模将是美国中产阶级的三倍。

However, the fact still remains that state-owned enterprises in China are pervasive and not as profitable as non-state-owned firms. Moreover, China does not always enforce intellectual property rights, nor promote transparency or protect non-state shareholder interests. China still needs to build more global brand names and environmentally sustainable firms.

然而，中国的国有企业普遍存在，利润不如非国有企业高的问题。此外，中国并不保护知识产权，也不提倡透明度或保护非国有股东的利益。中国仍然需要建立更多的全球品牌和环保企业。

It is obvious that the next few years are “mission critical” for the US. Tariffs and other vagaries of politics will do little to improve the overall competitive position of US firms. In these turbulent times, these defensive play calling strategies are like choosing to play one-handed basketball. The real play to call is for the government to return to its pioneer roots, dig its heels in, and invest for the long term in frontier research in science, technology and entrepreneurship. For America to lead the way economically, it has to believe it can create the unimaginable by sticking to its playbook.

很明显，未来几年对美国来说是“关键”。关税和其它变幻莫测的政治因素对提高美国企业的整体竞争地位几乎毫无帮助。在这个动荡的时代，这些防守战术就像选择单枪匹马打篮球。美国政府真正需要做的是重拾拓荒精神，站稳脚跟，长期投资于科学、技术和创业的前沿研究。美国要想在经济上遥遥领先，就必须相信，只有坚持自己的策略，才能创造出不可思议的成果。

印度时报读者评论：

Hari Santanam•1 day ago

The very first line contains an error, that "America uses tariffs to protect its industries" - umm, NO. It is China that does that, the US is in its precarious situation precisely because it allowed state subsidized Chinese firms to enter its markets.

第一行就有一个错误，“美国利用关税来保护本国工业”——这里说错了，中国才是这么做的。美国之所以处于危险境地，是因为它允许政府补贴的中国企业进入美国市场。

 

Vijay Desikan•USA•2 days ago

China is basically stealing all U.S. ideas and investing more in it. Doesn't make it a leader by stealing ideas. What NEW ideas has China come up with?

中国基本上窃取了美国的创意，然后加大投资。靠窃取创意是不能成为领导者的。中国有什么新创意吗?

 

Vijay Desikan•USA•1 day ago

The author says, "The U.S. owes much of its technological dominance to European technological leadership". Really? What reality is the author living in?

作者说:“美国的技术优势在很大程度上要归功于欧洲的技术。”真的吗?作者和我们生活在同一个世界吗?

 

1. SUNDARARAMAN SRINIVASAN•Unknown•1 day ago

Informative blog. Thanks. The situation is further worsened... by tightening of entry of brains from various nations ... who have been contributing a lot on such progress... ? America First, can materialize much better/faster... if freedom from barriers other factors are in place

限制其他国家的人才进入美国，造成情况进一步恶化，外国人才为美国进步做出了巨大贡献。如果没有阻碍，“美国优先”可以更好/更快地实现。

 

Vijay Desikan• ssundararaman20•USA•1 day ago

Does China allow a lot of immigrants from other countries? Hardly. Then how did they get to be a superpower? When it comes to America everyone clamors to immigrate there and are loud in their protest when it clamps down. With China no one wants to immigrate there?

中国是否允许大量来自其他国家的移民?几乎不允许。那他们是如何成为超级大国的呢?说到美国，每个人都吵着要移民，当移民政策收紧时，他们就大声抗议。难道没人想移民到中国吗?

 

JITENDRA DDESAI•1 day ago

It will be too much for Trump who is busy building a wall to stop Latinos from entering US or busy walking out of Paris Agreement or busy talking to Taliban who killed max no of US soldiers. USA will have to wait till 2020 to respond correctly to Chinese advances.

对于忙着筑墙阻止拉美裔进入美国、忙着退出巴黎协定、忙着与杀害美国士兵的塔利班谈判的特朗普来说，这太难了。美国必须等到2020年才能对中国的进步做出反应。

 

DW .Mani•1 day ago

Cross border industrial sleuthing has been the first order of the day, for years. With systemic slippage in international law's IP protection mechanisms

随着国际法知识产权保护机制的系统性下降，多年来，跨境工业侦查一直是头等大事。

 

Ashok•Bombay•2 days ago

China is an idea whose time has come. It is not going obediently back into the cradle, simply because Uncle Sam wishes it to. The other factor which leaders like President Trump do not sufficiently appreciate or acknowledge is that it is immigrants who are adding so much value to Americaâ s technical leadership.

中国的时代已经到来。它不会听从美国的安排，顺从地回到摇篮里。像特朗普总统这样的领导人没有充分认识的另一个因素是，正是移民为美国的技术主导地位增添了重大价值。

 

Vijay Desikan• lalashok•USA•2 days ago

You seem to be frustrated and jealous of America. Your visa to the U.S. rejected again? Try applying to China for a work visa.

@Ashok 你似乎有点沮丧和并且嫉妒美国。你的美国签证又被拒签了吗?试着向中国申请工作签证吧。