印巴轨迹，黎明报读者评

Pak-India trajectory

印巴轨道线

PRIME Minister Narendra Modi has been re-elected. So what next for Pakistan-India relations? Will the neighbours start talking again? Certainly. But will their dialogue amount to anything? I am afraid not. The irony is that whether or not India and Pakistan are talking their relationship changes little, as if it has been inoculated against friendship since infancy.

总理纳伦德拉·莫迪再次当选。那么，印巴关系下一步将如何发展？这两个邻国会重新开始对话吗？当然会。但他们的对话会有什么意义吗？恐怕不会有。具有讽刺意味的是，无论印度和巴基斯坦是否讨论他们的关系，它们的关系几乎没有什么变化，就好像从婴儿期就接种了友谊的预防针。

The shadow of history has darkened the two countries’ view of each other. The burden of the past continues to oppress the present making the relationship resistant to change. What makes change still harder are their foreign policies, resting on conflicting identities and national purposes and moving in colliding orbits. Each has remained an indelible fixture of the other’s domestic politics, compromising the will to change.

历史的阴影使两国对彼此的看法都很消极。过去的负担继续压迫着现在，使两国关系难以改变。令改变难上加难的是他们的外交政策，基于相互冲突的身份和国家目标，并在相互冲突的轨道上运行。两国都是对方国内政治中不可磨灭的一部分，阻挠了改变的意愿。

Modi’s hard line on Pakistan is not exceptional. This has been the default position of most Indian leaders. The difference is Modi’s perceptions are beating to the rhythm of global sentiments towards Pakistan especially in the West that have turned negative. Modi’s negativity towards Pakistan is an asset in his relations with the US on which his foreign policy pivots. And at home he has played up the militancy issue to harden the existing public attitudes towards Pakistan, from which he derives political mileage and support for his brutal repression in India-held Kashmir.

莫迪对巴基斯坦的强硬立场并不令人意外。这一直是大多数印度领导人的默认立场。不同之处在于，莫迪的看法与全球对巴基斯坦的情绪步调一致，尤其是西方国家，他们对巴基斯坦的情绪已经转为负面。莫迪对巴基斯坦的消极态度是他与美国关系中的一笔财富，也是他外交政策的核心。在国内，他大肆渲染好战问题，以强化现有的公众对巴基斯坦的态度。他从巴基斯坦那里获得了政治上的好处，以及对他在印控克什米尔的残酷镇压的支持。

Relationships change when countries have a compulsion and incentive to seek change. Between India and Pakistan, one or the other stimulus has always been missing. When either sought better ties the other was not ready. That is how the 1999 bus diplomacy and 2001 Agra summit failed, and the Manmohan Singh-Pervez Musharraf back channel lost its way. On rare occasions when both sides were inclined to look for change, like Modi and Nawaz Sharif, non-state actors struck.

当国家之间有寻求改变的冲动和动机时，两国的关系就会改变。在印度和巴基斯坦之间，总是缺少这样或那样的刺激。当其中一方希望改善关系时，另一方还没有准备好。1999年的巴士外交和2001年的阿格拉峰会就是这样失败的，而曼莫汉•辛格-佩尔韦兹•穆沙拉夫的退路也是这样迷了路。

Given its economic challenges, Pakistan has stronger compulsions to seek better relations but like India wants the normalisation to be free of cost. Neither is ready to give the critical concessions the other demands. They have not only magnified each other as a threat but also exaggerated their own capability to deal with it. India feels that by virtue of its size and military and economic power it is intrinsically qualified to seek hegemony in the region. Pakistan rejects such a normalisation — particularly a normalisation minus Kashmir. That is why the relationship cannot improve as it lacks consensus on the terms of engagement.

考虑到巴基斯坦面临的经济挑战，它有更强的动力想要改善关系，但就像印度希望正常化不需要付出代价一样。双方都不准备对对方的关键要求做出让步。他们不仅把对方夸大为威胁，而且夸大了自己应对威胁的能力。印度认为，凭借印度的规模、军事和经济实力，它有资格在该地区谋求霸权。巴基斯坦对此很抗拒——尤其是在克什米尔问题上。这就是两国关系无法改善的原因，因为两国难以达成共识。

Meanwhile, Modi feels the benefits of alienating Pakistan exceed those of conciliation. But the policy has run its course. Frustrated that despite its power and influence, India cannot manage Pakistan, he decided on military action after Pulwama. But it did not quite work because of Pakistan’s successful response. The military option has the risk of escalation or becoming a regular pattern thus losing its effectiveness.

与此同时，莫迪认为疏远巴基斯坦的好处超过了和解。尽管印度拥有强大的力量和影响力，但却无法控制巴基斯坦，这让他感到沮丧，于是决定在普瓦马事件后采取军事行动。但由于巴基斯坦的成功应对，这项计划并没有完全奏效。军事选择有升级或成为常规模式的风险，从而失去其效力。

That leaves dialogue as the only option. But the problem is, it is one thing to have a dialogue and quite another to institute a dialogue process that would require an understanding on fundamental issues. And understanding is hard to come by, especially as the relationship is no longer just about Pakistan and India. India’s Pakistan policy is an adjunct to its China policy and a footnote in its relationship with Washington. And India is a subset of Washington’s China policy and relations with Pakistan.

这使得对话成为唯一的选择。但问题是，进行对话是一回事，建立对话进程则是另一回事，这需要双方对基本问题有共识。可是共识很难达成，尤其是当两国关系不再仅仅是巴基斯坦和印度的关系时。印度的巴基斯坦政策是其对华政策的附属物，也是印美关系的一个补充。印度是华盛顿对华政策和与巴基斯坦关系的一部分。

No meaningful change is expected from India unless some or all of the following happen: there is progress in Pakistan’s fight against militant organisations; Modi’s repression in Kashmir fails; Afghanistan stabilises along with visible improvement in Pakistan’s economy; and US-China relations head for a dangerous escalation forcing India to reassess its ties with Washington. These are big ifs for the future.

除非发生以下部分或全部情况，否则印度不会做出有意义的改变：巴基斯坦打击激进组织的斗争取得了进展；莫迪在克什米尔的镇压失败了；随着巴基斯坦经济的明显改善，阿富汗局势趋于稳定；美中关系正走向危险的升级，迫使印度重新评估与华盛顿的关系。这些都是对未来的重大假设。

Meanwhile normalisation of Pakistan-India ties will remain subordinate to Modi’s global and regional ambitions, his Kashmir policy, and domestic politics. A resumed dialogue may achieve little more than some improvement in atmospherics, and a partial resumption of people-to-people contact, and progress on Kartarpur, all vulnerable to the next incident.

与此同时，印巴关系正常化比起莫迪的全球和地区野心、克什米尔政策和国内政治而言依然是次要的。恢复对话可能只会在一定程度上改善形势，部分恢复民间交流，以及在卡尔塔普尔问题上取得进展，这些都很容易受到下一次事件的影响。

Ultimately, for durable peace and prosperity to come to South Asia what is required is the emergence of strong leaders in Pakistan and India and a paradigm shift in domestic politics, national policies and the mindset of the people, possibly led by the next generation. Only a different Pakistan and India can be friends one day.

最终，要使南亚实现持久和平与繁荣，巴基斯坦和印度需要出现强有力的领导人，并在国内政治、国家政策和人民的思维方式方面进行根本转变，这种转变可能将由下一代领引导。只有一个不同的巴基斯坦才能和印度成为朋友。

Steve Cohen in Shooting for a Century fears India Pakistan rivalry could possibly last for a ‘century’, in cricket terminology. A forbidding thought indeed.

史蒂夫·科恩在《百年纪事》中担心，用板球术语来说，印度和巴基斯坦的对抗可能会持续一个世纪。这确实是一个令人望尔生畏的想法。

以下是巴基斯坦黎明报网站读者评论：

外文链接：https://www.dawn.com/news/1484467/pak-india-trajectory

Pervez

After the current elections India will deal with Pakistan on 90 -10 basis. This means Modi wants 90% of what he desires from Pakistan and will give into 10% of Pakistan demands. Unfortunately for us Modi is in a position to do this.

在这次选举之后，印度与巴基斯坦之间将以90 -10的模式交往。这意味着莫迪想从巴基斯坦得到他想要的90%，而同时满足巴基斯坦10%的要求。对我们而言不幸的是，莫迪有能力做到这一点。

 

Moazam Beg

Economic might dictates global geopolitics. With our economy sinking, the old assumptions and formulas against India are unlikely to be applicable in the future. Unless our economy by some magic zooms upwards. Rather unlikely.

经济实力决定着全球地缘政治。随着我们的经济下滑，过去对印度的假设和公式在未来不太可能适用了。除非我们的经济奇迹般地飞速增长。但这不太可能。

 

Desikan R

It is very heartening to see a reasonably balanced article about Indo- Pak relations. The reference to non-state actors trying to stop whatever little progress being made in relations is obviously true but it is very rare to see such statements in Pakistan media. Hope to see more rational statements from leaders of the 2 countries which can lead to improved understanding between the 2 countries.

很高兴能看到一篇关于印巴关系的比较中肯的文章。有关非国家行为体试图阻止两国关系取得任何微小进展的说法显然是正确的，但在巴基斯坦媒体上看到这样的文章非常罕见。希望两国领导人发表更加理性的声明，增进两国间的了解。

 

IndoPak

Agree, it will sadly need a different generation. A generation in India which has reaped gains of economic prosperity at a level that it fears confrontation with Pakistan will take away those benefits. A different generation in Pakistan which has grown out of 1971 and fears of existential threat from India, realizes Kashmir issue is stopping the country to grow exponentially. Alas, we are at least 20-30 years away from such a situation. Hope no one presses self destruct button in the intervening period.

同意，这需要不同代际的人才能实现。印度的这一代人已经从经济繁荣中获得了好处，但他们担心与巴基斯坦的对抗会丧失这些好处。巴基斯坦的另一代人已经摆脱了1971年对印度生存威胁的恐惧，他们意识到克什米尔问题正在阻止这个国家快速增长。唉，我们离这种局面至少还有20-30年的时间。希望在此期间没有人按下自毁按钮。

 

BK

"despite its power and influence, India cannot manage Pakistan"- so wrong! All along India has been raising the cost for Pakistan in its misplaced notion of being equal to India. As on date, Pakistan is on the verge of economic collapse or becoming a vasal state of China. Simply, it was an economic war, which the generals simply didn't understand.

“尽管印度拥有强大的力量和影响力，但它无法控制巴基斯坦”——大错特错!印度为巴基斯坦花的钱越来越多了，因为它误认为巴基斯坦与印度是平等的。截至目前，巴基斯坦正处于经济崩溃的边缘，或者会成为中国的一个邦。很简单，这是一场经济战争，将军们根本不明白。

 

Manjeet

Thanks for understanding the diff between elected and selected leader

感谢您理解当选和当选领导人之间的分歧

 

Ahmed bin Babar

Don't expect much as long as BJP is out of secularism and stuck up in hindu nationalism...

不要期望太多，除非人民党脱离世俗主义，坚持印度教民族主义……

 

AMITAVA TRIPATHI

As long as all blame is attached to India and Pakistan is viewed as driven snow, no worthwhile dialogue is naturally possible. So let us wait and see what happens over the next century or so . By the way,as far as J&K is concerned, just forget it.

只要所有的责任都归咎于印度和巴基斯坦，那么就不可能有任何有价值的对话。所以让我们拭目以待下个世纪左右会发生什么。顺便说一句，就JK而言就算了。

 

Indian kashmiri

Pakistan should leave Kashmir issue , it can trade with India with more than 22 billion , a lot of technology transfer can be given to Pakistan by India , Pakistan should strictly reduce it's non development expenses to sustain it's economy , unless it cannot reduce it's non development budget it cannot grow , I don't know why it is so hard to make new changes

巴基斯坦应该放手克什米尔问题,它与印度的贸易超过220亿,印度很多技术可以转让给巴基斯坦,巴基斯坦应该严格减少非开发费用来维持它的经济。

 

Darshan suri USA

What the Diplomate wrote is very true. Pakistan can not forget Kashmir but India will merge Kashmir like another state. If over 100 million Muslim could live in India why not 5-6 million Kashmiri's.

外交官写的内容千真万确。巴基斯坦无法忘记克什米尔，但是印度会像对付其他邦一样合并克什米尔。如果超过1亿的都可以生活在印度，为什么会容不下500万到600万克什米尔人。

 

LAHORI KID

Stop dwelling on the past and rewrite history, that’s what leaders on both sides need to do. Imagine kids reading in history books that Modi and Imran Khan changed the history, Pakistan and India live in peace as neighbors. Wouldn’t that be nice, and rewarding for people on both sides of the fence.

不要再沉湎于过去，重写历史，这是双方领导人需要做的。想象一下，未来孩子们会在历史书上读到莫迪和伊姆兰汗改变了历史，巴基斯坦和印度作为邻居和平相处。这不是很好吗，对双方都有好处。

 

Nusrat

Sir. Great article. India does not want to manage Pakistan. But your points are valid, sadly.

先生。文章太伟大了。印度不想控制巴基斯坦。但遗憾的是，你的观点是正确的。

 

KSD

Very balanced view. As the gap between the two economies (Pakistan and India's) widens further, the formulas for peace talks would have to change. For some reason, that does not seem to be the case.

One point I don't understand is why India should reassess its relations with the USA if the relations between that country and China take a dangerous turn. One would think that such a scenario would bring India even closer to Washington.

非常公允的观点。随着两个经济体(巴基斯坦和印度)之间的差距进一步扩大，和平谈判的模式将不得不改变。出于某种原因，情况似乎并非如此。

有一点我不明白，如果中国和印度的关系出现危险的转折，印度为什么要重新评估与美国的关系。有人可能会认为，这种情况会让印度更接近华盛顿。

 

Srinivasan Kailasam

India has a robust and flourishing Trade relationship with China despite differences. Pakistan can do the same and improve their economy. Indian Manufacturers should be invited to invest in Pakistan.

尽管存在分歧，但印度与中国有着强劲和繁荣的贸易关系。巴基斯坦也可以这样做，改善经济。应该邀请印度制造商到巴基斯坦投资。

 

R K Dubey

Forget Kashmir and hand over the anti indian elements to Indian authorities. These are the simple terms and conditions for Indo Pak friendship . It is immaterial who rule over India.

忘掉克什米尔吧，把反印分子交给印度当局。这些是印巴友谊的简单条款和条件。这与谁来统治印度没有关系。

 

SB

At this point in time, even the comments from either side are very constructive again exemplifying that dialogue is the only way forward

在这一时刻，双方的评论都是非常建设性的，再次表明对话是唯一的前进道路。

 

Kris

India and Pakistan should engage in back-channel diplomacy until there is something tangible that both sides can sign on to. No point having formal diplomacy if the two sides are miles apart. It's just a waste of everybody's time.

印度和巴基斯坦应该进行幕后外交，直到双方都愿意签署一些切实的协议。如果两国的想法差距太大，进行正式外交是没有意义的。这只会浪费大家的时间。

 

Nasim Haider

Vow! what a thoughtful n objective analysis of the situation. It has all the answers to why we fail and why we won't have a negotiated settlement anytime soon. A great learning indeed.

对形势的客观分析是多么周到啊!至于我们为什么会失败，以及为什么我们无法在短期内通过谈判达成解决方案，它列出了所有答案。我学到了很多。

 

Saqib

Pakistan and India will gain more in friendship than perpetual animosity

巴基斯坦和印度将从友谊中，而不是永远的仇恨中，获得更多。

 

Global Peace

Lets see how long Pakistan can sustain this theory, this theory which revolves around Kashmir has not done anything so far.

让我们看看巴基斯坦能坚持这个理论多久，这个围绕克什米尔的理论到目前为止还没有做任何事情。

 

Noon

I do not think India is in any hurry for talk. It may continue with the status quo for another 2-3 years and shall wait for behaviour of economic indicators in Pakistan.

我认为印度并不急于对话。它可能继续维持现状2-3年，等待巴基斯坦经济指标表现如何。

 

UM

Modi must focus on economic development, climate change and national security as per the mandate he has received from the Indian people. Everything else is peripheral.

莫迪必须按照他从印度人民那里得到的授权，把重点放在经济发展、气候变化和国家安全上。其他一切都是次要的。

 

HZR

With Kashmir always on the table no progress on Indo-Pak relationship is likely.If both nations are mature and put Kashmir on the backburner for sometime the progress will be phenomenal.Every leader is aware of this but then who will bell the cat?

克什米尔问题一直摆在桌面上，印巴关系不太可能取得进展。如果两国都成熟起来，把克什米尔问题暂时搁置一段时间，进展将是惊人的。每个领导都知道这一点，但谁来承担风险呢?

 

Judge

Status quo suits India. Pakistan is slowly going towards bankruptcy trying to match India and internationally not many countries care what Pakistan says. Slowly without any war but surely, Pakistanis will revolt and push government to stop promoting terror in the neighbourhood. Only issue will be whether government or even military will be able to control revolt?

现状适合印度。巴基斯坦正慢慢走向破产，试图追赶印度。在国际上，没有多少国家在意巴基斯坦说什么。慢慢地，不会有任何战争，但可以肯定的是，巴基斯坦人会反抗，并迫使政府停止在周边地区推广恐怖主义。唯一的问题是政府甚至军队是否能够控制叛乱?

 

Venkat

The social problems that Indian and Pakistan face are very similar. There is 90% convergence of issues(poverty, education, health, women’s safety, economy,...). If we can address 10% of the issues through innovative and peaceful solutions then the future is bright for all in the region. Hope one day we will have euro zone kind of relationship which will making boundaries less meaningful. .

印度和巴基斯坦面临的社会问题非常相似。有90%的问题(贫困、教育、健康、妇女安全、经济……)都一样。如果我们能够通过创新和和平解决10%的问题，那么该地区所有人的未来都是光明的。希望有一天我们能建立起一种欧元区模式的关系，让国界变得不那么有意义。