考什克·巴苏：印度经济增长的衰退“非常令人担忧” [印度媒体]

KaushikBasu said from 2003 to 2011, India was growingtypically over 8 per cent per annum. 

考什克·巴苏说，从2003到2011年，印度年增长率通常超过8%。



WASHINGTON: The downturn in India's growth is "very worrying", WorldBank's former chief economist Kaushik Basu said, underscoring that this is the"hefty price" the country had to pay for demonetisation.

华盛顿：世界银行(World Bank)前首席经济学家考希克•巴苏(Kaushik Basu)表示，印度经济增长的低迷“非常令人担忧”，突显出这是该国为废币付出的“沉重代价”。

India's GDP growth dropped to a three-year lowof 5.7 per cent during April-June as manufacturing dipped and impact of thedemonetisation lingered on in the third quarter.

今年4-6月，印度GDP增速降至5.7%的三年低点，原因是制造业在第三季度出现了萎缩和废币的影响。

"The downturn in growth is very worrying. Iknew it would go below 6 per cent because the demonetisation was a big negativeshock to the economy. But 5.7 per cent growth is lower than I expected,"Basu, the former senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank,told .

“经济增长的低迷非常令人担忧。我知道这一比例将降至6%以下，因为废币对经济造成了巨大的负面冲击。但是，5.7%的增长率低于我的预期，”世界银行(World Bank)前高级副总裁兼首席经济学家巴苏(Basu)表示。



Basu said from 2003 to 2011, India was growingtypically over 8 per cent per annum.

Basu说，从2003年到2011年，印度每年的增长率通常超过8%。

The year of global crisis, 2008, it droppedbriefly to 6.8 per cent, but over 8 per cent growth had become the new norm forIndia.

2008年全球金融危机爆发后，印度经济曾一度短暂跌至6.8%，但超过8%的增长已成为印度的新常态。

"Now with oil prices so low, China cedingspace to India, our growth should have been back to well over 8 per cent.Hence, the first quarter growth this year of 5.7 per cent implies 2.3percentage points of growth has been lost due to demonetisation. This is ahefty price," Basu said.

“现在，由于油价如此之低，中国向印度让出了空间，我们的经济增长应该回到了适当高于8%的水平。因此，今年第一季度经济增长5.7%，意味着经济增长因废币损失了2.3个百分点。这是一个巨大的代价，”巴苏说。

"But the demonetisation mistake andinadequate performance of the export sector means that the overall performancehas been disappointing. These mistakes can be corrected," he said.

“但废币错误和出口行业的表现不佳，意味着整体表现令人失望。这些错误是可以纠正的，”他说。

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recentlyannounced that 99 per cent of the junked Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes havereturned to the banking system.


印度储备银行(RBI)最近宣布，报废的500卢比和1000卢比的纸币中，有99%已经回到了银行系统。

"What is particularly troubling is thelatest announcement which reveals that over 99 per cent of the notesdemonetised have come back. This suggests that the rich people have virtuallyall managed to redeem their money. It is the small traders, the informal sectorand the poor who suffered most," said Basu who currently is C MarksProfessor and Professor of Economics at Cornell University, Ithaca and NewYork.

“尤其令人不安的是，最近的一份声明显示，超过99%的废币已经回来了。这表明，富人实际上已经设法赎回了他们的钱。最受影响的是小商人、非正规部门和穷人，”巴苏说。他目前是康奈尔大学(Cornell University)、伊萨卡(Ithaca)和纽约(New York)的C Marks教授、经济学教授。

Responding to a question on future prognosis,the top Indian economist said there have been two good policy initiatives theadoption of Goods & Services Tax (GST) and the enactment of the newbankruptcy law, and the Indian government does deserve credit for these.
Hence, unless it again makes a mistake like thedemonetisation, the economy should recover in 2018, he observed.

在回答关于未来预测的问题时，这位印度顶级经济学家表示，有两项很好的政策措施，即通过商品和服务税(GST)，以及颁布新的破产法，印度政府确实值得信任。

"But I expect two more quarters of poorgrowth. The October to December quarter especially could see a slowdown, sincethe farmers last year suffered a lot when they discovered that ordinarypeople's buying power had been curtailed by the demonetisation and though theyhad produced a lot, they could not sell. We are likely to see a backlash ofthat later this year," Basu said.

因此，他评论说，除非再犯像废币这样的错误，经济应该在2018年复苏。
但我预计还会有两个季度的经济增长放缓。10月至12月这个季度尤其可能出现放缓，因为去年农民们遭受了很大的损失（当他们发现普通人的购买力受到了废币的限制，尽管他们生产了很多，但他们无法销售）。我们很可能会在今年晚些时候看到反弹，”巴苏说。

"One policy risk is if we try to godigital, doing away with cash, too fast," he cautioned.


他警告说:“一项政策风险是，如果我们试图数字化，废除现金，太快了。”

"Even rich countries have a long way to go.In a country like India where roughly half the population does not even havebank accounts, a sudden move to digital money makes no sense. It will be ananti-poor policy, since the poor will be disadvantaged most. But barring suchmistakes, we should get back to reasonable growth in 2018," Basu said.

“即使是富裕国家也有很长的路要走。在印度这样的国家，大约一半的人口甚至没有银行账户，突然转向数字货币毫无意义。这将是一个反穷人的政策，因为穷人将是最弱势的。但除了这些错误之外，我们应该在2018年回到合理的增长，”巴苏说。

When asked, what should be the policy responseto the sharp growth slowdown India is witnessing, Basu said there are twopolicies that government ought to give special attention to.

当被问及对印度经济增长急剧放缓的政策反应是什么时，巴苏说，政府应该特别注意两项政策。

"First, it needs to inject more liquidityin the system to compensate people for the drying up of their buying power thathas occurred since November last year. The additional liquidity can boostdemand and provide a Keynesian stimulus that Indian producer's needs," hesaid.

“首先，需要在系统中注入更多的流动性，以补偿人们从去年11月开始就已经耗尽的购买力。额外的流动性可以提振需求，为印度生产者的需求提供一种凯恩斯式的刺激。”

"Second, there has to be policyinitiatives, involving both fiscal and monetary interventions, to boostexports. Manufacturers who are suffering because of ordinary people s damagedbuying power will get much needed relief. In order to promote exports we needto improve the ease of doing business," he said.

“第二，必须采取政策措施，包括财政和货币干预措施，以促进出口。那些正因普通百姓购买力受损而受苦的制造商们将得到许多急需的救济。为了促进出口，我们需要改善营商环境，”他说。

"Also, the rupee seems to be artificiallystrong and appreciating in real terms. This is hurting our export capacity.Allowing the exchange rate to settle at market- determined rates will correctthis aberration," Basu said.

此外，卢比似乎被人为做强和升值。这损害了我们的出口能力。允许汇率以市场确定的汇率稳定，将纠正这种反常现象，”巴苏说。

Responding to a question on his overallassessment of the performance of Indian government from the point of view ofeconomic performance, Basu said there have been some good policy moves forwhich the government deserves credit.

巴苏对他对印度政府在经济表现方面的表现进行全面评估的问题作出了回应，他说，政府有一些不错的政策举措值得赞扬。

"But in the long-run, the bigger worry isthe regression in social behavior being witnessed in many parts of the country.If this is not checked more actively, it can cause a setbak not just to thefabric of social life but to long-run economic development," Basu said.LKJ UZM AKJ UZM

“但从长远来看，更大的担忧是，在全国许多地方都能看到社会行为的倒退。”如果不被核查地更积极些，它会导致社会生活的结构以及长期的经济发展发生倒退。”Basu说。


Kajan Lakhan · 1 days ago
Where do these economist get their degreesfrom?You have to recall that DeMo did cause a slow down in trade, but that wassmall trade, as emoney was still there! The big trades where still takingplace....or was it?Just when Trump came in, right at about that time, the H1-B1visa kicked in.This quite naturally, made company analysis back away from"What could be a potential future problem to hiring in Indianmarkets".. So in short, they did not invest India!This deficit of IT tradeand services, and all subsidiaries affiliated with it did impacted on theeconomy. Later on that issues was rectified... But the damage was already done.Company''s had already hired on already invested for the next five years orso.(my guess would be China or another cheap labour market) India is on theright track.We can expect double digit GDP in the future. ( The BRICS loan of1.4Billion US Dollars only came in today. The positive impact will show in afew quarters time as they start releasing the funds and buildinginfrastructure.)

这些经济学家从哪里拿到的学位?你必须记得，废币在贸易中确实造成了一个缓慢的下降，但这是一个很小的贸易，因为电子货币还在!大交易仍在发生……还是吗?就在特朗普来的时候，就在那个时候，h1 - b1 visa开始了。这很自然的，使公司的分析远离“可能成为印度市场中招聘的潜在未来问题”。简而言之，他们没有投资印度!这种IT贸易和服务的赤字，以及与之相关的所有附属公司都对经济产生了影响。后来，问题得到了纠正……但损害已经造成。公司已经在未来5年左右的时间里已经投资了。(我的猜测是中国或另一个廉价劳动力市场)印度正走在正确的道路上。我们可以预期未来的GDP增长是两位数。(金砖国家贷款14亿美元今天才出现。由于他们开始释放资金和建设基础设施，积极的影响将在几个季度内显现。

Ajay C · 1 days ago
Statistics shows only 6 to 7% black money wereheld in the form of Cash. And Mr. Modi & Co. banned 86% of cash (by banning500 & 1000 rupee notes). Did any rich people got affected? How much did werecover black money? PM needs to be educated and need lessons on Economy andmarket. We all know he does not like Harvard guys neither he likes NobelLaureate Economists. He should talk with Data/Facts. Simply hating our ownpeople (who are critics on his decision) won''t take our country ahead. Countrylike China will grow in much faster pace. So, Mr. Modi - listen to whatEconomists are saying. Simply visiting USA twice a year won''t help!

统计数据显示，只有6 - 7%的黑钱以现金形式持有。莫迪先生与公司禁止了86%的现金(通过禁止使用500卢比和1000卢比的纸币)。有没有富人受到影响?我们回收了多少黑钱?总理需要接受教育，需要经济和市场方面的课程。我们都知道他不喜欢哈佛男生，他也不喜欢诺贝尔奖得主经济学家。他应该和数据/事实说话。仅仅是憎恨我们的人民(他们是他的决定的批评者)不会让我们的国家领先。像中国这样的国家将以更快的速度增长。那么，莫迪先生——听听经济学家的说法吧。简单地一年访问美国两次不会有帮助!

Gopal Sriniwasan · 23 hours ago
For Ten years there was a policy paralysis undera World renowned Economist when Corruption was an acceptable norm in publiclife.Where were all these U S Educated Economists?

十年来，当腐败是公共生活中一种可接受的规范时，世界着名经济学家的政策瘫痪。这些受过美国教育的经济学家在哪里?

Harsh Vardhan Joshi · 1 days ago
The issue here is Modi Govt. is run by One manteam!Lots of ideas and very little framework & planning. 1.Swaach Bharat -Zero guidelines to garbage disposal2. Smart cities - wi-fi = smart city3. Makein India - zero advantage to Indian manufacturers. Bug projects awarded toChinese companies.List would go on & on and so will Modi bhakts who tooincidentally are paying artificially jacked up fuel prices.

这里的问题是莫迪政府是一个人的团队!有很多想法，很少有框架和计划。1 . Swaach Bharat –对垃圾处理没有指导方针。2.智能城市- wifi = 小城市3.印度制造——对印度制造商零优势。大项目给予了中国公司。名单将会继续下去，因此顺便付款的莫迪们也会被人为地抬高燃油价格（没看懂……）。

Prashant Deshmukh · 1 days ago
What basu said is in black and white... He isnot there in USA just by chance. It''s fact and Modi bhakt must accept it.

巴苏说的是确实无疑的……他在美国不是偶然的。这是事实，莫迪必须接受。

Iyer Venkatakrishnan · 1 days ago
At the backdrop of Modi''s adamancy over thecent percent cashless economy, the opinions of the former Chief Economist Mr.Kaushik Basu are very relevant. The BJP govt. should take the pains to givecognisance to the materialistic views of Mr. Basu for salvaging the presentsituation; so that the coming year 2018 would witness the growth of GDP. Forthe elimination of black-money, the BJP govt. took a wrong step throughdemonetisation. In the process, all the rich-ones have got converted blackmoney to white, throwing the dust in the eyes of the govt. and the income-taxauthorities. At the end of this drama, the poor ones got hit very badly. In theparlance of the economists, Modi made a hurry in banning currency notes forpaving the way for digital economy. This precipitated gesture is going to makea regress in the social culture of our countrymen. Any advancement towardsrigid cashless economy is bound to hit back the BJP govt., as the poor and thedowntrodden cannot continue GANDHIGIRI any more.

在莫迪对无现金经济的坚强态度的背景下，前首席经济学家考希克•巴苏(KaushikBasu)的观点非常相关。印度人民党应该不厌其烦地对巴苏先生的唯物主义观点作出让步，以挽救目前的局势;因此，未来的2018年将见证GDP的增长。为了消除黑钱，印度人民党(BJP govt)在废币的过程中走错了一步。在这一过程中，所有的富人都把黑钱洗白了，把尘土扔进了政府和税务部门。在这部戏剧的结尾，那些可怜的人受到了非常严重的打击。在经济学家的说法中，莫迪匆忙地禁止货币流通，为数字经济铺平了道路。这种轻率的举动将会使我们的国人的社会文化倒退。任何向僵硬的无现金经济的发展都必然会打击印度人民党，因为穷人和受压迫的人再也不能继续甘地主义了。

Gopal Sriniwasan · 23 hours ago
It was a Corrupt Economy which was presided overa decade by DrMMS and Demonetization was the right step.What now needs to bedone is boost farm income and disposable income with the middle class and theSalaried class by tax reforms

这是一个腐败的经济，由DrMMS主持了10年，而废币是正确的一步。现在需要做的是通过税收改革提高农民的收入和中产阶级和工薪阶层的可支配收入。

Vishwanath Purohit · 1 days ago
What was promised in the national address by PMwhile effecting notebandi and what has been achieved?

总理在国家演讲中承诺了什么，并取得了什么成果?

Ramnik Lal Bamania · 1 days ago
Politically motivated points written by KaushikBasu . Demonitization was a nessicity for our Economy.GDP is 6.5 ,but it willincrease in coming financial session .

由Kaushik Basu撰写的有政治动机的观点。废币对我们经济是必要的。GDP是6.5，但在即将到来的金融期，GDP将会增加。

Prashant Deshmukh · 1 days ago
Modi government just busy in dialog bazi....They want all your money in returns nothing.... See today how cylinder pricesincrease when oil and gas prices internationally soften

莫迪政府只是忙于对话....他们想要你所有的钱啥都不给....看看今天，当国际油价和天然气价格走软时，汽缸价格如何上涨。

Anil Desousa · 1 days ago
Kaushik Basu should resign ; instead of worrying- he hasnt done his job properly

Kaushik Basu应该辞职而不是在那担心——他没有把工作做好

Jayeshkumar Panchal · 1 days ago
Forget the Demonetization, Where is InterestRate Benefit that these banks are simply refusing to pass on to the Oldcustomers!. Remember it all (the Demand) starts with Money with the people, andin their pockets, and not a loads of Money held/piled up in all these Banks.

忘记了废币吧，这些银行只是拒绝向老客户提供利率收益。记住，所有这些(需求)都是从人们随身口袋里钱开始，而不是在所有这些银行里堆积起来的钱。

Aaditya Kulkarni · 1 days ago
to hell with the growth that happens based onblack money and favors rich to become more rich and more corrupt

让那些以黑钱为基础并让富人变得更加富有和腐败的经济增长去见鬼吧

Abhi 739 · 1 days ago
Assuming everybody is corrupt, how did RBI thenget back 16 lakh crore, all the money it was expecting?

假设每个人都是腐败的，那么RBI是如何拿回它预期的所有的16万亿卢比的呢?

Kajan Lakhan · 1 days ago
Well, smart corruptors, made interest and thenreturned the money!That''s how you make money clean.

好吧，聪明的腐败分子，借钱生利再还钱!这就是你洗钱的方法。