印度在寻求一带一路计划的替代方案 [俄罗斯媒体]

India in Search of Alternatives to OBOR

印度在寻求一带一路计划的替代方案


                              
As is well known, India is the maincompetitor of China in Asia. This has recently been most evident in the wayIndia has related to the Chinese One Belt and One Road Initiative. Realizingthe importance of international transport corridors for economic developmentand maintaining stability in the world, India nevertheless rejected theinvitation of the PRC to join OBOR. The country intends to establish its owninternational transport system, free of Chinese influence.

正如我们所知道的，印度是中国在亚洲的主要竞争对手。这点在印度最近处理与中国一带一路计划相关事务时的方式上表现得尤为明显。尽管印度拒绝了中国让它加入一带一路计划的邀请，但是它也意识到了国际运输走廊对于经济发展和维持世界稳定的重要性。这个国家试图建立它自己的、不受中国影响的国际运输系统。

It is felt that such a task for India isdaunting. China has already invested and continues to invest huge amounts ofmoney in OBOR. Only in May 2017, at the international OBOR forum in Beijing,President of the PRC Xi Jinping noted that the project will receive USD 124billion in state funding. In addition to direct financial assistance to theproject, the Chinese government is actively encouraging entrepreneurs of theCelestial Empire to invest their funds in OBOR.

有人认为这样的一项任务对于印度而言太过于艰难。中国已经在一带一路中投入了大量资金，并且还将继续投入大量资金。仅仅在2017年5月，在北京举办的一带一路国际论坛中，中国国家领导人便指出中国将会向这一项目投入1240亿美元的国家资金。除开对这一项目的直接经济援助，中国政府还积极鼓励这个天朝帝国的企业家们向一带一路计划中投入资金。

India is still lagging far behind China interms of economic development. The GDP of India is about five times smallerthan the Chinese GDP. Nevertheless, India is one of the largest andfastest-growing economies in Asia. In addition, it would not be the sole partyto the project of creating an alternative to OBOR, but in collaboration withvarious partners. In a number of projects, India may cooperate with Japan,which is also interested in developing trade with other countries without theparticipation of China. It should be recalled that Japan, too, refused toparticipate in the above-mentioned OBOR May Forum, despite the persistentinvitations from the Chinese side.

在经济发展方面，印度仍然远远落后于中国。印度的国内生产总值要比中国小五倍。然而，印度是亚洲规模最大、发展最快的经济体之一。另外，它不会是一带一路替代项目的唯一参与方，而是会和不同的合作伙伴进行合作。在一系列的项目中，印度可能会和日本合作，后者也对在没有中国参与的情况下与其他国家发展贸易感兴趣。应该记住的是，尽管中方一直发出邀请，但是日本也拒绝参与上面提到的一带一路5月论坛。

One of the important objectives of OBOR isAfrica. Like Eurasia, Africa is planned to be covered by a network of railroadsand highways connected to ports on its eastern and western coasts. This willsignificantly enhance the maritime traffic not only between Asia and Africa,but also between Asia and the two Americas, making Africa a transit point.

一带一路的一个重要目标是非洲。就像欧亚大陆一样，在计划中，非洲也要被铁路网与高速公路网所覆盖，这些交通网又与位于其东部和西部海岸的港口相连通。它不仅将会大幅的增加亚洲和非洲之间的海上交通，也会增强亚洲和两个美洲大陆的交通，让非洲成为一个中转站。

China has long been cooperating withAfrican countries, rapidly and steadily increasing its influence in them. Theextent of the economic expansion of China is evidenced by the fact that the PRCis engaging not only each and every state, but also the community of Africannations as a whole. At the end of 2015, the South African capital Johannesburghosted the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation, at which the Chinese side pledgedto invest USD 60 billion in the social and economic development of Africa andimplement a number of infrastructure projects within the framework of theAction Plan 2016-2018.

长期以来，中国都在与非洲国家合作，快速而稳定地增加它在这些非洲国家中的影响力。中国经济扩张程度的明证就是它所吸引的不是一个个单独的国家，而是作为一个整体的非洲国家共同体。在2015年底，南非首都约翰内斯堡主办了中非合作论坛，在这次会议上，中方承诺向非洲地区的社会和经济发展投入600亿美元，并建设一批在2016至2018年行动计划框架内的基础设施项目。

In early 2017, Minister of Foreign Affairsof China, Wang Yi, embarked on an extensive African tour, during which heenlisted support for the OBOR project from the leaders of Zambia, the Congo,Mauritius, Madagascar, Nigeria and Tanzania. A number of other countries inAfrica also promised their support for OBOR.

在2017年初，中国外交部长王毅开启了一趟涵盖多个国家的非洲之旅，在这趟访问行程中，他获得了来自赞比亚、刚果、毛里求斯、马达加斯加、尼日利亚和坦桑尼亚等国领导人对一带一路计划的支持。非洲的其他一系列国家也承诺支持一带一路计划。

To some extent, for China, the developmentof Africa may even be more important than Eurasian projects. It is nocoincidence that the first Chinese foreign military base, which was officiallycommissioned into operation on August 1, 2017, was opened in Djibouti. Theinappropriately-named “Black Continent” possesses large reserves of variousresources, and is an extensive market for various products. At the same time,the African states, due to their weak economic development and politicalinstability, need the help of foreign partners.

对于中国而言，非洲的发展可能在某种程度上比欧亚大陆计划还要重要。无巧不成书的事，中国的首个海外军事基地——它于2017年8月1日正式投入运营——便坐落于吉布提。这片被不恰当的命名为"黑色大陆"的土地上蕴藏着大量不同种类的资源，也是各种产品的广阔市场。与此同时，因为其落后的经济发展状况和政治稳定性，这些非洲国家需要外国合作伙伴的帮助。

Africa is a vast field of activity for richcountries willing to make big investments. Therefore, the most powerful statesof the world are now competing, trying to cope with maximizing their spheres ofinfluence there.

非洲对于那些愿意进行重大投资的富裕国家而言是一片广阔的天地。因此世界上最强大的这些国家正在展开竞争，试图最大化他们在这一地区的影响力。

In deciding to create an alternative toOBOR, India and Japan also chose Africa as their main focus. The jointIndian-Japanese project was named “Asia-Africa Growth Corridor”. The idea ofthis project has been known since the end of 2016. The “Corridor” shouldfacilitate the economic integration of the countries of East, South-East andSouth Asia, as well as the countries of Africa and Oceania. The main role ofthe project is maritime intercommunication. According to Indian Prime MinisterNarendra Modi and his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe, the main goal of the“Corridor” is to create a free, open Indo-Pacific space.

在决定提出一带一路的替代方案的过程中，印度和日本选择非洲作为他们的主要关注点。印度和日本的联合项目被命名为"亚非发展走廊"。这一计划的主旨在2016年底已经为人所知。这一"走廊"应当能够推动东亚、东南亚和南亚国家以及非洲和大洋洲国家的经济融合。这一项目所扮演的主要角色是海上互通。根据印度总理莫迪以及日本首相安倍晋三的说法，这一"走廊"的主要目的是建立一个自由、开放的印度洋－太平洋空间。

It is hard to tell whether theIndian-Japanese Corridor will be able to take on OBOR. India is closer toAfrica and has a long-standing trade relationship with the continent. Japan, inturn, has great financial capabilities and advanced technology. Nevertheless,China has long maintained a huge influence on the African continent. Thecountry has long started implementing its infrastructure projects, while the“Asia-Africa Growth Corridor” is still only in the discussion stage.

很难说这条印度－日本的走廊是否将能够取代一带一路计划。印度要更接近印度，并且与这个大陆保持着长期的贸易关系。而日本则拥有庞大的的金融资本和先进技术。然而，长期以来，中国已经在非洲大陆维持着巨大的影响力。这个国家已经开始实施其基础设施项目，而"亚非发展走廊"还是处于讨论阶段。

Much closer to being an alternative to OBORis another similar project in which India is a participant – the “North-South”international transport corridor (ITC). Russia, India and Iran signed anagreement on the establishment of the ITC in 2000 (later being joined byAzerbaijan). However, the project has only in recent years started gainingmomentum thanks to the joint efforts of the countries in the development ofinfrastructure. “North-South” is designed to link India with the Baltic Seacountries through Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia. The delivery of goods along sucha route is noticeably faster than the traditional maritime traffic through the SuezCanal. The route includes sea, road and railway sections. As with OBOR, the ITCdoes not consist of one route, but of several branches having a commondirection. From the Iranian port of Bandar-Abbas, to which the goods will betransported via the Arabian Sea from the largest Indian port of Mumbai, theycan go further overland through Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, or acrossthe Caspian Sea. Branches to Armenia and Georgia are also being considered.Rail transport is considered the most advantageous from the point of view ofthe ratio of cost and speed (this also combines “North-South” with OBOR). Iranand Azerbaijan are now actively building new railways that will connect theirrailway networks to those of the Russian Federation. The “North-South” ITC willthen enter into full force.

更加接近于成为一带一路计划替代方案的则是另外一个类似的项目——"南北"国际运输走廊，印度是其中的一个参与者。俄罗斯、印度和伊朗在2000年签署了建立这一走廊的协议（阿塞拜疆后来也加入了进来）。然而，由于这些国家在基础设施发展方面的共同努力，这一项目近年来才取得了重大的进展。"南北"国际运输走廊旨在通过伊朗、阿塞拜疆和俄罗斯，将印度和波罗的海国家连接起来。通过这一走廊运输货物将会比通过苏伊士运河的传统海上运输方式要快得多。这条路线包括了海运、公路运输和铁路运输部分。和一带一路几乎一样，"南北"国际运输走廊不只是一条路线，它包括了同一方向上的多条支线。从伊朗的阿巴斯港——商品将通过阿拉伯海从印度最大的港口孟买被运输到这里——出发，它们将通过陆路穿过阿塞拜疆、哈萨克斯坦、土库曼斯坦，或者通过里海。亚美尼亚和格鲁吉亚的支线也在考虑当中。从成本和速度比率的角度出发（同时考虑了"南北"国际运输走廊和一带一路计划），铁路运输被认为是最具优势的运输方式。伊朗和阿塞拜疆现在正在积极建设新的铁路线，它们将会把自己的铁路网与俄罗斯联邦的铁路网连接起来。在此之后，"南北"国际运输走廊将会进入全面推行阶段。

However, the ITC will begin to workfull-time and bring in revenue even earlier, since rail transportation can betemporarily replaced by road transport.

然而，"南北"运输走廊将会更早进入全时段的运作阶段，并更早地带来收益，因为铁路运输可以暂时由公路运输所取代。

In August 2016, the prospects for theNorth-South project were discussed at a meeting of the presidents of Russia,Azerbaijan and Iran. As a result, the parties stated that they would developtheir transport and communications infrastructures in every possible way toincrease freight traffic.

在2016年8月，俄罗斯、阿塞拜疆和伊朗总统在一次会议中商讨了这一南北计划的前景。结果，这些参与方声明称他们将会通过每一种增加货物运输的方式来发展它们的运输与交通基础设施。

In September 2016, a trial delivery ofcargo was carried out along the route across the Mumbai-Kaluga region.Transport companies from Russia, India, Iran and Azerbaijan participated. Allparticipants acknowledged the high speed and relatively small cost oftransporting goods in this way.

在2016年9月，一趟试验性的货运班次沿着横跨孟买－卡卢加地区的路线出发。来自俄罗斯、印度、伊朗和阿塞拜疆的运输公司都参与其中。所有的参与方都认可了通过这种方式运输商品的高速与相对低成本。

In October 2016, Russian President VladimirPutin visited India, and the North-South ITC was also among the most importantissues that the Russian leader discussed with the Indian leadership. It wasstated that Russia and India attached great importance to the implementation ofthe ITC project, which could become a key factor for economic integration inthe region.

在2016年10月，俄罗斯总统普京访问了印度，"南北"国际运输走廊也是俄罗斯领导人与印度领导人商讨的最重要话题之一。据称，俄罗斯和印度认为这一走廊计划的实施有着非常重要的意义，它能够成为这一地区经济融合的关键因素。

In September 2017, the media reported theupcoming start of regular cargo transportation via the “North-South” ITC. Allcountries participating in the project are now working on simplifying customsprocedures, which will make the delivery of goods even faster.

在2017年9月，媒体报道了通过"南北"国际运输走廊进行的定时货物运输即将启动的消息。所有参与这个项目的国家现在都致力于简化通关程序，这将让货物的运输更加快捷。

It is thus clear that the North-South ITCis much closer to implementation than the “Asia-Africa Growth Corridor”. IfIndia intends to compete with the Chinese OBOR, it is more reasonable for it tofocus on this project and the development of relations with Russia, Iran andtheir partners. Since the Indian leadership is steadily strengthening economicrelations with these countries, it could be said that it is indeed aware ofthis fact. The negotiations on the creation of a free trade zone (FTZ), whichIndia and Iran are conducting with the Eurasian Economic Union, which includesRussia, Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, attach special importanceto the relations linking India, Russia and Iran, as well as the North-Southproject. If these negotiations are to succeed, such an FTZ, backed by afully-operational North-South ITC, will be able to deal with OBOR on an equalfooting, and none of its participants will have the feeling of being under the“soft power” of China.

因此，"南北"国际运输走廊显然要比"亚非发展走廊"更接近于实施。如果印度试图与中国的一带一路计划相竞争，更理智的做法便是关注于这一计划，并且致力于发展与俄罗斯、伊朗和它们的合作伙伴的关系。因为印度领导层正在稳步强化与这些国家的经济关系，可以说它的确已经意识到了这一事实。印度与伊朗建立自由贸易区的谈判是与欧亚经济联盟计划一同推进的，后面一项计划中包括了俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、亚美尼亚、吉尔吉斯斯坦和哈萨克斯坦，它赋予了印度、俄罗斯和伊朗关系以及南北项目以特别的重要性。如果这些谈判获得了成功，这样一个得到充分运作起来的南北国际运输走廊支持的自由贸易区将能够与一带一路计划争锋，这些参与国将不会有处于中国"软实力"影响之下的感觉。