【今日俄罗斯】对伊朗的制裁将有助于中国的石油人民币战略 [俄罗斯媒体]

Iran sanctions will help China's petro-yuan

对伊朗的制裁将有助于中国的石油人民币

Published time: 9 Jan, 2018 11:41



In a few days, US President Trump may try to re-impose sanctions on Iran, a dramatic step that could heighten tensions between the two countries.

几天后，美国总统特朗普可能会重新对伊朗实施制裁，这个劲爆的做法可能加剧两国之间的紧张关系。

Some analysts believe the move could contribute to a much broader global economic power shift from the US to China.

一些分析人士认为，此举可能促使一个更广泛的全球经济强国的转换：从美国到中国。

The connection between the issues may not be obvious at first glance, but by seeking to isolate Iran from the international market, Iran could look elsewhere. Because the global oil trade is conducted in greenbacks, the US Treasury was able to restrict Iran’s ability to access the global financial system in the past. That made it extremely difficult for Iran to sell its oil prior to the thaw in relations in 2015, which kept millions of barrels of daily oil production on the sidelines.

乍看起来，这些问题之间的联系可能并不明显，但如果想把伊朗从国际市场中孤立出来，伊朗可以另谋出路。由于全球石油贸易是以美元为结算货币，在过去美国财政部能够限制伊朗融入全球金融系统的能力。这使得伊朗很难在2015的关系解冻前出售石油，伊朗石油日产量只能保持在数百万桶。



This time around, however, the US will likely go it alone. The Trump administration won’t have the backing of the international community in its campaign to resurrect sanctions against Iran, which will make isolation much more difficult. A few months ago, Goldman Sachs predicted that unilateral sanctions from the US could affect a few hundred thousand barrels per day from Iran, but without help from the rest of the world, the effort would not curtail nearly the same amount of oil as the last time around.

然而这一次，美国很可能会单干。特朗普政府在恢复对伊朗的制裁活动中不会得到国际社会的支持，这将使隔离变得更加困难。几个月前，高盛预测来自美国的单方面制裁可能会影响伊朗每天的几十万桶石油，但如果没有世界其他国家的帮助，这一努力将不会像上次那样减少几乎相同数量的石油。

Moreover, some analysts argue that the Washington crackdown could merely push Iran to begin selling oil under contracts denominated in yuan rather than dollars.

此外，一些分析人士认为，华盛顿的制裁可能只会促使伊朗开始以人民币计价而不是美元来出售石油。

“Potential consequent reactivation of sanctions may cause Iran to export oil using the Chinese Yuan denominated contract, which launches on 18 January,” Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodities Analyst at SEB, said in a statement. “This may spark a move away from the present long-established US Dollar (USD) denominated oil trading regime.”

“重启制裁的潜在后果可能导致从1月18日开始伊朗石油出口以人民币计价，”SEB(瑞典北欧斯安银行)首席大宗商品分析师Bjarne Schieldrop在一份声明中说。“这可能有悖于美国长期建立的美元计价的石油交易制度。”

For a while, China has worked to launch a yuan-denominated oil futures contract—a move that would symbolize, as well as contribute to, the ascendance of the Chinese economy as a rival to long-held US hegemony. Reports suggest China is planning to allow trading in the oil futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on January 18.

近期中国一直在努力推出人民币计价的石油期货，此举象征且有助于中国经济崛起为一个美国霸权的竞争对手。报告显示，中国计划1月18日在上海期货交易所开始原油期货交易。

“The increased threat of renewed US banking/USD sanctions on Iran alone is likely to boost Iran’s interest in the new Yuan oil contract,” said Bjarne Schieldrop of SEB. “China will benefit considerably from such developments.” Schieldrop argues that the more that the oil trade is conducted in yuan, the more the Chinese currency will be recognized as a major, or even a central, global currency. “While the USD will not be replaced overnight as the world’s reserve currency nor as the one most commonly used for crude oil trading, it will be negative for the greenback, which will cease to be the crude oil market’s only ruling currency,” Schieldrop added.

“美国重启对伊朗制裁的威胁可能推动伊朗对新的人民币石油贸易的兴趣，”SEB(瑞典北欧斯安银行)首席大宗商品分析师Bjarne Schieldrop说。“中国将从这些(制裁)措施中受益。”Schieldrop认为，以人民币结算的石油贸易越多，人民币将越有可能成为主流的、甚至是一个核心的全球货币。“虽然美元不会一夜间被取代了世界储备货币地位，也不会取代作为一个最常用的原油交易货币，但这将是利空美元，这将使美元不再是原油市场的唯一支配货币，”Schieldrop说。

The implications aren’t just a concern for national security types sitting in Washington. The weakening of the dollar could result in higher oil prices. “A potentially significantly weaker dollar would mean a much higher Brent crude oil price in nominal terms making today’s longer-term nominal prices a bargain,” Schieldrop said.

这些影响不仅仅是对华盛顿国家安全类型的担忧，美元的疲软可能导致油价上涨。“一个显着疲软的美元意味着更高的布伦特原油（译者注：布伦特原油出产于北大西洋北海布伦特地区。伦敦洲际交易所和纽约商品交易所有他的期货交易，是市场油价的标杆）价格在名义上使得今天的长期名义价格显得便宜，”Schieldrop说。



China has had some false starts in its quest to launch its yuan-denominated futures contract, but the official launch appears to be only days away. The contract will only be powerful to the extent that it becomes highly liquid and widely traded, which will only be achieved when more of the global oil trade is conducted in the currency. Meanwhile, Russia recently announced that it would sell $1 billion worth of yuan-denominated bonds in 2018—another move that will bolster the rise of the yuan as a top global currency.

中国之前试图推出人民币期货交易的多次尝试失败了，但本次正式启动似乎只有几天了。只有在高度流动性和广泛交易的情况下，只有在全球更多的石油贸易以人民币进行交易时，该期货交易才能发挥强大的作用。与此同时，俄罗斯最近宣布将在2018出售价值10亿美元的人民币债券，此举将有助于提升人民币成为全球主流货币。

But investors are unlikely to jump full on into the petro-yuan just yet; capital controls in China will deter some interest. Any transition from the US dollar to the yuan will take years. But milestones such as an oil futures contract are one of the many building blocks needed to push the greenback off of its perch.

但投资者不太可立即认可石油人民币，中国的资本管制将会使很多资本望而却步。任何从美元到人民币的过渡都需要数年时间，但像人民币石油期货交易这样的里程碑是动摇美元霸权的众多基石之一。

Washington could unwittingly accelerate the changeover. President Trump has sought to “make America great again,” but his effort to isolate Iran could have the side effect of pushing OPEC’s third-largest exporter onto the Chinese currency—giving a boost to China’s rise.

华盛顿可能无意中加快了这种转换进程，特朗普总统一直追求“使美国再次伟大”，但是他努力孤立伊朗可能带来副作用，即推动欧佩克的第三大出口国(伊朗)使用中国货币结算，这又促进了中国的崛起。





YT
The only reason why US has not collapsed [yet], is because of its military and central intelligence. Like the Roman Empire history, that shall too end. No country in history, has lasted with huge debts. Since Americans don't get proper education, this will all be a surprise for them.

美国还没有崩溃的唯一原因，是因为它的军事实力和中央情报系统。像罗马帝国的历史一样，最终走向灭亡，历史上没有一个国家有过如此巨额的债务。因为美国人得不到适当的教育，这对他们来说将是一个惊喜。

ACE
... yip; are they going to shoot themselves in the foot again ..

他们在搬石头砸自己的脚……

        big brother
        yes we are cuz we only care care about profit now. worry later. sound familiar?

        是的，我们在作死因为我们急功近利，是不是听起来很熟悉？

..
Go ahead Trump, do it... do it I dare you ROFLMAO

去吧，特朗普，干吧…我谅你不敢，真搞笑（译者注：ROFLMAO是美国俚语，Rolling on floor laughing my ass off，表示太可笑了）

Captain_Canuck
with Russia, Venezuela and Iran potentially using the Yuan for oil contracts it will have an effect although a small one as countries like the UAE, Saudi, Mexico and Canada will be unlikely to trade in Yuan unless forced to.  I think that Saudi and the UAE will be pragmatic and sell oil in either currency depending on the buyer.  However the USA is a major customer for Mexican and Canadian oil and the USA will only trade in dollars.

随着俄罗斯、委内瑞拉和伊朗可能用人民币进行石油结算，这将产生一些影响，尽管像阿联酋、沙特、墨西哥和加拿大这样的国家不大可能用人民币结算，除非被逼无奈。我认为沙特和阿联酋将采取务实的态度，根据买方的不同，以两种货币出售石油。然而，美国是墨西哥和加拿大石油的主要客户，美国只会用美元结算。

        ...
        ice to see some intelligence on these boards occasionally.
        Thanks for posting.

        很高兴偶然能在这些留言板看到如此精辟的发言。
        谢谢发帖。

                Cannonfodder
                The USA was also a major importer of Venezuelan oil, until they no longer liked Chavez.  No country should rely on the desperate and fickle foreign policies of a declining empire.

                美国也是委内瑞拉石油的主要进口国，直到他们不再喜欢查韦斯为止。任何国家都不应依赖一个衰落帝国的绝望和嬗变的外交政策。

Bruceconsidered
Oil prices will drop.  Iran will be forced to sell to Brics countries at a discount therefore having to pump more.  There will be a glut amongst the rest of the world producers resulting in a lowering of prices.  Good for the consumers?  Maybe not for world economy?  Best leave sanctions alone.

石油价格将下降，伊朗将被迫以折扣价卖给金砖国家，因此不得不开采更多。世界其他产油国将供过于求导致价格下降。对消费者有好处吗？也许不利于世界经济？最好不要制裁。


Bingo
Donny is a friend in disguised to China.

川普是中国的潜在朋友。