国家利益网站--印度处于失业危机的边缘吗？ [印度媒体]

Is India on the Verge of an Unemployment Crisis?
Arpita Mukherjee， Avantika Kapoor
June 5, 2017

【译者：作者两个是在新德里的两位三哥。发表于国家利益网站】
印度处于失业危机的边缘吗？
2017-06-05



Providing enough employment opportunities in India with a population of 1.34 billion is not easy. And the fact that half of the population is below the age of 25 and will soon enter the job market will only make matters worse.

在印度为13.4亿人口提供足够的就业机会并不容易。事实上，一半人口在25岁以下，他们即将进入就业市场只会让失业情况变得更糟。

In response, the government has come up with initiatives such as ‘Make in India’, ‘Skill India’ and ‘Start-up India’ to promote employment. But the 2015–16 Annual Employment and Unemployment Survey found that the labour force participation rate (LFPR) nationally was only 50.3 per cent. And the LFPR is much lower for females than for males. The survey shows sluggish employment growth and the growth varied across sectors. While sectors such as IT have seen growth, other sectors such as jewellery, automobile manufacturing and transport have seen a decline in employment in recent years.

对此，政府提出了“印度制造”，“技术印度”和“印度创业”等倡议来促进就业。但2015 - 16年度就业和失业调查发现，全国劳动力参与率仅为50.3％。女性的LFPR比男性要低得多。调查显示，就业增长缓慢，各部门增长不尽相同。虽然信息技术等行业有所增长，但近年来珠宝，汽车制造和运输等行业的就业人数有所下降。

In India, agriculture accounts for 46 per cent of the workforce, compared to 22 per cent in manufacturing and 32 per cent in services. Despite various policy initiatives, the manufacturing sector has not been able to create mass employment, unlike in countries such as China. Further, casual and contractual employment is replacing permanent jobs in the manufacturing sector.

在印度，农业占劳动力的46％，制造业占22％，服务业占32％。尽管有各种政策举措，制造业还是无法创造大规模就业机会，不像中国这样的国家。此外，临时性和合同性就业正在取代制造业的长期工作。

In 2016, India’s unemployment rate was 7.97 per cent, with rural unemployment at 7.15 per cent and urban unemployment at 9.62 per cent. In rural areas, unemployment figures are lower due to the ‘Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act’ (MGNREGA). This act aims to guarantee the ‘right to work’ by providing at least 100 days of paid employment in a financial year to every household whose adult members volunteer to do unskilled manual work. In the Union Budget 2017–18, the MGNREGA received Rs 480 billion (US$7.5 billion). While the act has helped to lower the unemployment rates, it has not been able to tackle disguised unemployment/underemployment. And such programs focus only on unskilled employment.

2016年，印度失业率为7.97％，农村失业率为7.15％，城市失业率为9.62％。由于“圣雄甘地全国农村就业保障法”（MGNREGA），农村地区的失业数字较低。这项法案旨在确保“工作权”，为每个成年人自愿从事非技术性工作的家庭提供至少100天的有偿就业机会。在2017-18年的联盟预算中，MGNREGA获得了4800亿卢比（75亿美元）。虽然这一行为有助于降低失业率，但却无法解决变相的失业和就业不足问题。这种方案只侧重于非技术性就业。

To connect job seekers to potential employers, the Ministry of Labour and Employment launched the National Career Service portal. The portal is a common platform connecting job-seekers, employers, skill providers, placement organisations and counsellors. In the same month as the National Career Service was launched, Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana — a skill development scheme — was launched by the Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship to help young people learn industry-relevant skills and enable them to secure skilled employment.

为了将求职者与潜在的雇主联系起来，劳动和就业部推出了全国职业服务门户网站。门户是连接求职者，雇主，技能提供者，安置组织和顾问的共同平台。在全国就业服务处推出的同一个月里，技能开发和创业部发起了一项技能开发计划 - 普拉汉·曼特里·考沙尔·维卡斯·尤加纳（Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana），帮助年轻人学习与工业相关的技能，使他们能够获得熟练的就业。

While these schemes may increase employability through skill upgrading, one of India’s largest employers of educated youth — the IT sector — has begun laying off employees. Companies like Wipro, Cognizant and Infosys have announced that they will downsize. While there was 8.6 per cent growth in the IT sector in the 2016–17 financial year, jobs only grew by 5 per cent, compared with 6 per cent in 2015–2016. This downward trend is predicted to continue, with a 20–25 per cent reduction in growth in employment in the IT sector over the next three years.

虽然这些计划可能通过技能提升来提高就业能力，但印度最大的知识青年雇主之一IT部门已经开始裁员。 Wipro，Cognizant和Infosys等公司宣布将缩小规模。尽管2016-17财年信息技术部门的增长率为8.6％，但就业率仅增长了5％，而2015 - 2016年为6％。预计这种下降趋势将持续下去，未来三年信息技术部门就业增长将下降20-25％。

Industry experts blame this on automation, artificial intelligence and stricter visa norms in key markets such as the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. Some companies have announced that they will focus on new technologies such as artificial intelligence, rather than concentrating on low-skilled IT jobs.

业内专家把这归咎于美国，英国和澳大利亚等主要市场的自动化，人工智能和更严格的签证规范。一些公司已经宣布，他们将专注于人工智能等新技术，而不是专注于低技能的IT工作。

But this technological advancement need not impact job creation — India can instead move towards a knowledge-based economy by focusing on high-value manufacturing and enrolment in quality higher education.

但是，这种技术进步不一定会影响创造就业机会，相反，印度可以转向知识经济，专注于高价值制造业和高质量高等教育入学。

Disparity in access to higher education leads to unemployment among the youth. Countries such as South Korea have successfully developed the higher education sector through private participation, while the Singaporean government has launched a program to establish partnerships between domestic and foreign universities to promote tertiary education. India could learn from these examples.

接受高等教育导致青年失业。韩国等国家通过私人参与成功地发展了高等教育部门，而新加坡政府则启动了一项计划，建立国内外大学之间的合作关系，以促进高等教育。印度可以从这些例子中学习。

Moreover, India needs to change its anarchic labour laws which lead to creation of contractual jobs instead of permanent employment. Retail is a labour-intensive sector, and foreign investment in retail would create jobs in the both retail and related sectors like apparel manufacturing and logistics. Similarly, allowing foreign investment in sectors like legal and accountancy services will create employment as more foreign firms move to India. Infrastructure investment can also be utilised as an engine of job creation.

而且，印度需要改变劳动法，导致创造合同工而不是正式工。零售业是一个劳动密集型行业，外资零售业将为零售业和相关产业创造就业机会，如服装业和物流业。同样，允许外国投资法律和会计服务等行业将创造就业，因为更多的外国公司转移到印度。基础设施投资也可以被用来创造就业机会。

Finally, India needs to sign trade agreements conceding to its partners’ requests to open sectors like insurance, legal services and retail, and in return, bargain for easier work visa norms.

最后，印度需要签署贸易协定，同意其合作伙伴要求开放保险，法律服务和零售等部门的要求，作为回报，在便于工作签证规范方面讨价还价。

With these smarter policies, India can move towards permanent positions in high-value sectors, and need not fear technological advancement or unemployment.

有了这些更明智的政策，印度可以转向在高价值行业的固定位置，不必担心技术进步或失业。


Andrew • 7 months ago
The best thing India, and the rest of the 3rd world, can do to improve their economic prospects is to reduce their fertility rate. Take China as an example.

印度和其他第三世界能够改善经济前景的最好办法就是降低生育率。以中国为例。

Mandh Budhhi  Andrew • 7 months ago
Demographics: India's Greatest Economic Advantage (And Weakness)

人口统计学：印度最大的经济优势（和弱点）
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Avatar
StPTBarnum  Andrew • 7 months ago
This is old Western propaganda! See where it has landed Japan

这是老西方的宣传！看看它在哪里登陆日本

Andrew
The last thing Japan needs is mass 3rd world immigration. See the wonderful success of Germany or UK as a counter example. If demographic decline is at issue, the solution is to encourage pro-natalist policies. This is what the 1st world needs, not immigration.

日本需要的最后一件事是大规模从第三世界移民。以德国或英国的辉煌成就为例。如果人口下降是问题的话，解决办法是鼓励生育政策。这是第一世界所需要的，而不是移民。

StPTBarnum
Where did immigration come in from?

移民来自哪里？

You are talking of reducing fertility rate in India & Third World. Low fertility rate has been historical reality for the West - exceptions being post-conquests and annihilations of other populations!

你说的是在印度和第三世界降低生育率。低生育率是西方的历史现实 - 例外是征服后和其他人口的消灭！

This historical bias towards population stasis has forced Europe and USA to accept immi-grunts where ever they come from. With a great amount of resentment and resistance.

这种人口停滞的历史偏见迫使欧洲和美国接受来自任何地方的移民。有很大的怨恨和抵制。

I cud even venture to say that NATO policy in the last 70-years has been designed to funnel immigration into Europe and USA by creating imbalances in Asia, Middle East, Africa and LatAm.

我甚至冒昧地说，北约在过去70年的政策旨在通过在亚洲，中东，非洲和拉脱维亚造成不平衡，将移民流入欧洲和美国。

EU greatest design achievement is the hollowing of most of Europe burdening them with care of old, infirm and children. Germany, France, UK have benefited from huge immigration within the EU - without paying for creating the labor-pool.

欧盟最大的设计成就是大部分的欧洲人都在照顾老人，体弱者和孩子，德国，法国和英国从欧盟内部的巨大移民中获益 - 没有为创造劳动力而付费。

Saying pro-natalist policy is easy - but why has it not happened for 2500-years? Not in the Christian World! Not in the Arab-Islamic Bloc! Or the Semitic microcosm!

说催生是容易的 - 但为什么2500年没有发生？不在基督教世界！不在阿拉伯 - 伊斯兰集团！或者闪米特人的缩影！

Mandh Budhhi  StPTBarnum • 7 months ago
You can see what has happened to Ukraine's population

你可以看到乌克兰人口发生了什么

Kiraay Kaa Tattu  StPTBarnum • 7 months ago
Europe has imported enough immi-grunts from Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Africa, Eastern Europe, Ukraine to meet the EU demand for prostitutes, truck-drivers, street-sweepers, construction workers, taxi-drivers over the next 20-30 years.

欧洲从伊拉克，叙利亚，阿富汗，巴基斯坦，非洲，东欧，乌克兰进口了足够的移民，以满足欧盟在未来20-30年间对妓女，卡车司机，扫街车，建筑工人，的士司机的需求年份。

These 1 million immi-grunts will mostly be grateful to Ma-Europa for this 'opportunity'. The few who will see through this policy will become academics - or terrorists.

这100万名移民将主要是感谢马欧罗这个“机会”。通过这项政策的少数人将成为学者或恐怖分子。

Andrew  Kiraay Kaa Tattu • 7 months ago
All of those jobs are done in Japan by Japanese, and their economy is better than most in Europe.

所有这些工作都是由日本人在日本完成的，他们的经济比欧洲的大多数都好。

Only 13% of immigrants in Europe are working. Far from being economic exploitation, it's a foolish act of charity on the part of Europeans.

欧洲只有13％的移民在工作。这不是经济剥削，这是欧洲人愚蠢的慈善行为

Kiraay Kaa Tattu  Andrew • 7 months ago
Both Japan & Europe have been stagnating for 20 years now! Nearly zero growth for about 20 years! You can chose who you like, but both the economies are in the dumps!

日本和欧洲都停滞了20年！几乎为零的20年左右的增长！你可以选择你喜欢的人，但是这两个经济体都在垃圾堆里！

Japan is, of course, very insular!

日本当然是非常孤立的！

The only culture they allow into Japan these days, is Murican culture! Earlier, when China was dominant, Japan allowed China's culture to brainwash them. Before that, when India's thought factory ruled the world, Japan went and copied their entire culture from India.

他们现在进入日本的唯一文化就是太子文化！早些时候，当中国占统治地位时，日本允许中国的文化给他们洗脑。在此之前，当印度的思想工厂统治世界时，日本从印度复制了整个文化。
So, Japan is a very subservient culture that worships whoever is dominant.

因此，日本是一个崇尚任何支配者的非常屈从的文化。

Andrew  StPTBarnum • 7 months ago
The only people who benefit from immigration are the immigrants. See the age of European colonialism as a historical corollary.

唯一从移民中受益的人是移民。把欧洲殖民主义的时代视为历史的必然结果。

I'm not sure where you get this idea that Europe favors population status, there have been huge booms in the past. Population stasis hasn't forced Japan to take in immigrants, and it has maintained a very high standard of living and dynamic economy as a result, with basically no terrorism or cultural displacement. Immigration will be the death of Europe and Europeans if allowed to continue.

我不确定你认为欧洲是否有利于人口地位的想法，过去有过巨大的繁荣。人口停滞并没有迫使日本接纳移民，结果保持了很高的生活水平和活力，基本没有恐怖主义和文化流离失所。如果允许的话，移民将是欧洲和欧洲人的死亡。

StPTBarnum  Andrew • 7 months ago
First...This post and this discussion is about population - and not immigration! I wonder why you are diverting this to immigration!

首先...这篇文章和这个讨论是关于人口 - 而不是移民！我想知道你为什么把这个转移到移民身上呢！

Two: I am all for countries like Japan who are OK with (nearly) zero immigration - and zero growth for 20-years now. Wonder where you are getting this idea of dynamic economy!

二：对于像日本这样的几乎没有移民的国家来说，我都是这样的 - 现在20年零增长。不知道你在哪里得到这个动态经济的想法！

Three: If you dont know about Western bias for population stasis - maybe you shud go back to school and check Greek-Roman-Medi-Modern history.

三：如果你不知道西方人口停滞的偏见 - 也许你会回到学校，检查希腊罗马中世纪近代史。

Four: See when the population boom in Europe happened

四：看看欧洲的人口繁荣何时发生

Five: After killing 3 million Muslims in last 20-years and giving them 100-years of instability after destroying the Ottoman Empire, if you want blame anyone except NAT, you shud go to school again.

五：过去二十年杀死三百万穆斯林，摧毁奥斯曼帝国后给他们百年不稳，如果你想责怪除NAT以外的任何人，你就不要再上学了。

Six: Pls do not allow immigration.

六：请不要移民。

I am loving it, when you dont!

当你不爱时，我爱它！
But when you speak in anti-immigrant tone from one side of your mouf - and desperately chase immigrants from the other side of your mouf...

但是当你从你的m one一边反移民的口气说话 - 并拼命追赶移民从你的mouf的另一边...

NMA • 7 months ago
watch more TV, make less kids.... muslims population growing much more.... this is a problem...

看更多的电视，少做小孩....穆斯林人口增长更多....这是一个问题...

R. Arandas • 7 months ago
China and India's unemployment rates seem roughly the same, though China seems to be performing slightly better recently

中国和印度的失业率似乎大致相同，尽管中国近期的表现略好
India - https://tradingeconomics.co...
China - https://tradingeconomics.co...

India's unemployment rate was measured at 4.9%, while China's was measured at 3.97%. Both nations are also somewhat similar in that they send thousands of their students abroad for higher education, often seeking employment in the West after graduation.

印度的失业率为4.9％，而中国的失业率为3.97％。 两国也有些相似，因为他们把数千名留学生送到高等教育院校毕业，毕业后往往在西方寻找工作。