印媒: 经合组织预测到2060年，印度和中国将占到全球产出的近一半

India, China will account for almost a half of global output: OECD's prediction for 2060

经合组织预测到2060年，印度和中国将占到全球产出的近一半。

NEW DELHI: The global economy has lost steam, with activity increasingly concentrated in major Asia nations. Aging populations drag on growth and public finances. Living standards have improved -- unless a trade war changes all that.

新德里：全球经济已经失去动力，亚洲主要国家的经济活动日益集中。人口老龄化拖累了经济增长和公共财政。人们的生活水平提高了——除非爆发一场贸易战来改变这一切。

Welcome to 2060, as seen by the OECD. It’s drawn out how the world will look if policy and institutional settings remain largely the same, and how it might be transformed by investment, innovation, or rising protectionism.

欢迎来到经合组织眼中的2060年。如果政策和机构设置基本保持不变，投资、创新或保护主义的抬头将如何改变世界，世界将会变成什么模样。

One of its alternative scenarios is an undoing of trade liberalization -- a growing possibility now that a spat between the US and China continues to escalate.

一种设想是贸易自由化的废除——随着中美摩擦不断升级，这种可能性越来越大。

That would reverse a trend that has ushered in decades of labor-efficiency growth and supply-chain integration across countries. Returning to average tariff rates from 1990 could depress long-run global living standards by at least 14 percent by 2060, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development says.

这将扭转在近几十年带来劳动力效率增长和各国间的供应链一体化的一种趋势。经济合作与发展组织(OECD)表示，到2060年，平均关税回到20世纪90年代的水平，全球长期生活水平将下降至少14%。

The report, less concerned with robot servants and flying trains, looks at social and economic structures. The scenarios aren’t meant to be realistic forecasts but should “illustrate some of the forces that could shape the medium and long-term outlook” and inform policy discussion, according to the OECD.

这份报告不太关注机器人佣人和飞行火车，而是着眼于社会和经济结构。经济合作与发展组织(OECD)表示，这些设想并非现实的预测，但会“说明影响中长期前景的某些力量”，并为政策的讨论提供信息。

The striking feature in the baseline case is the continued slowdown in world economic growth. From 3.4 per cent next year, weakening momentum in large emerging markets and aging populations pull it down to 2 per cent over the coming decades.

这种情况的显著特征是世界经济增长持续放缓。从明年的3.4%开始，大型新兴市场和老龄化人口的增长势头减弱，在未来几十年里，经济增速将下降至2%。

At the same time, unsurprisingly, the economic center of gravity will shift further toward Asia, with India and China accounting for almost a half of global output.

与此同时，不出意料的话，经济重心将进一步转向亚洲，印度和中国占全球产出的近一半。

The alternatives posited include governance and education reforms that boost investment incentives in emerging markets. If the BRIICS (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa) matched OECD nations, they could see their living standards as much as 50 percent above the baseline scenario by 2060.

可选方案包括治理和教育改革，以促进新兴市场的投资。如果金砖四国(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、印尼、中国和南非)与经合组织(OECD)国家相匹配，那么到2060年，他们的生活水平将比基线预测高出50%。

The OECD also looks at competition and labor policies, and ways to offset the drag from the demographic shift.

经合组织还研究了竞争和劳工政策，以及如何抵消人口结构变化带来的不利因素。

Higher spending on family benefits, lower tax burdens and government programs to help the unemployed find work could boost employment.

增加家庭福利支出，降低税收负担，以及促进就业、帮助失业者找到工作的政服项目。

Increases in the legal retirement age equal to two-thirds of future increases in life expectancy -- known as the “Portuguese approach” -- in all OECD countries would raise aggregate employment of older people by more than 5 percentage points by 2060.

在所有经合组织国家，提高法定退休年龄相当于未来预期寿命增长的三分之二(即所谓的“葡萄牙方式”)，到2060年将使老年人的总就业增加逾5个百分点。

Other reforms highlighted are boosting research and development in all OECD nations to the level of the five leading countries. That would lift labor efficiency and raise overall living standards by 6 percent by 2060, the report says. Better public infrastructure would also support both private activity and quality of life. Done properly, it can often finance itself as higher output eventually generates fiscal revenue.

其他改革重点是将所有经合组织国家的研发提升到五个主要国家的水平。报告称，这将提高劳动效率，到2060年将整体生活水平提高6%。更好的公共基础设施也将提高私人活动和生活质量。如果得到恰当的执行，产出的增加最终会转换成财政收入，政服通常就可以为自己筹集到足够的资金。

印度时报读者的评论：

原创翻译：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/45598.html 译者：Joyceliu

外文：https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/india-china-will-account-for-almost-a-half-of-global-output-oecds-prediction-for-2060/articleshow/64972150.cms

Satya-4 days ago

india Coud be super power by 2040 itself provided scamgress and commie pigs must be out of power

印度是有能力在2040年成为超级大国的，但前提是流氓和共产主义猪必须下台

 

Dilbag Rai-Chandigarh-4 days ago

China will be able to control its population
but India should adopt family planning otherwise population boom will explode the country

中国有能力控制人口。

但是印度应该实行计划生育，否则人口膨胀会使这个国家爆炸

 

RCH-4 days ago

But I can also see a second partition coming up because of Muslims by 2047. Many areas of our country have already become mini versions of Pakistan. If second partition, has to happen, we have to do it peacefully, WITH COMPLETE POPULATION EXCHANGE...

但我也能预测，到2047年，由于穆斯林的原因，印度会出现第二次分裂。我国许多地区已经成为巴基斯坦的迷你版。如果要发生第二次分裂，我们必须和平地进行，进行完全的人口交换……

 

RCH-4 days ago-Follow

For that to happen, Bhaarath, HAS TO CONTROL ITS MUSLIM POPULATION. If we do not control the Muslim population, we will become a giant version of Pakistan and go back in our progress as most Muslims and their leaders are NOT INTERESTED IN JOBS, TECH, PROGRESS, etc..

为了实现这一目标，印度同胞们，我们必须控制穆斯林人口。如果我们不控制穆斯林人口，我们将成为巴基斯坦的放大版，我们取得进步的也将逆行倒退，因为大多数穆斯林和他们的领导人对就业、科技、进步等不感兴趣。

 

Krishnan M-navi mumbai-5 days ago-Follow

Prediction for 2060 is too far remote in the future: It is suggested to predict the data for 2025.

对2060年的预测太遥远了：不如预测2025年的数据。

 

Ea EnKi-4 days ago-Follow

Whatever... Progress or no progress, at least 2060 will see a Khangress mukt bharat... Pappu Italia would have been gone by then and only good service he did to India that he didn''t produce another fake gandhi.

随便吧……不管进没进步，至少2060年就没有国大党了……到那个时候，拉胡尔意大利也将不复存在，只有他对印度所做的好事留存于世——他没有生育另一个假甘地。

 

Rudra S-Brahamand-4 days ago-Follow

India is not rising but an ancient civilization is claiming its position back after hundreds of years of invasions and occupation. Go India go! Jai Hind!

印度还没有崛起，但在经历了数百年的侵略和占领之后，一个古老的文明正在夺回自己失去的地位。印度加油！印度必胜！

 

Imtiaz Hussain-4 days ago-Follow

Only predictions and talkings and there is no development still seen in India.

只有预言和空谈，印度还是没有发展的迹象。

 

jagat-4 days ago-Follow

In order to become a super power, India urgently needs to do two things: 1. Bring Modi into power with huge majority in 2019 and 2. Start popolution control drive again which was started by Sanjay Gandhi. India’s population has already crossed 130 crores.

为了成为一个超级大国，印度迫切需要做两件事：1. 支持莫迪在2019年获得压倒性多数选票上台执政。2. 重新开始执行桑甲伊甘地发起的计划生育。印度人口已经超过13亿了。

 

Aditi Nometrics-Potomac, MD, USA-4 days ago-Follow

2060 is too far into future. Depends on who wins Innovation race.

2060年太遥远了。这取决于谁在创新竞赛中获胜。

 

Aditi Nometrics-Potomac, MD, USA-4 days ago-Follow

Idk. Depnds on who wins innovation race. 2060 is long time ahead. Current form of gov. I don‘t see barking China as No 1 spot.

我不知道。这要看谁在创新竞赛中胜出。距离2060年还有一段很遥远的时间。我不认为目前的政服能赢过中国成为第一。

 

Shiva-Bengaluru-4 days ago-Follow

if modi stay in power maybe others these country going to be shitole

如果莫迪继续掌权，那么这个国家可能会变成屎坑

 

Rosy India-USA-4 days ago

Another rosy picture BY India. How about these pictures? By 2060, Indians will account for half the population of the world, and India may be divided into tens of independent countries; Kashmir, J&K, Punjab, etc.

这是印度的又一幅美好愿景。来听听这些设想怎么样?截止2060年，印度人口将占到世界人口的一半，印度可能被划分为数十个独立国家;克什米尔，印控克什米尔，旁遮普，等等。

 

Mudi-Gujriot-4 days ago-Follow

Really? Why not write something 3060 and 4060 as well? India will account for half of the solar system's output? Isn't India supposed to be a superpower by 2020, is that really going to happen? Wasn't that predicted as well. Reallyand tired of these useless future predictions.

真的吗?为什么不干脆写成3060年或4060年呢?印度将占到太阳系一半的产出?难道印度不应该在2020年成为超级大国吗?这真的会发生吗?这不也是预测出来的么？真的受够了这些没用的预测了。

 

Basnbb-4 days ago-Follow

Had it BJP in power in last 60 years. We would be looking to be Iraq in next 40 years. With of riots, rape, crimes, corruption etc etc.. that too with no inquiry on it.

如果印度人民党在过去60年掌权就好了。我们在未来40年内可能会成为伊拉克那样。骚乱、强奸、犯罪、腐败等。这也是没有经过调查的。

 

pats728-Coimbatore-4 days ago-Follow

What if Civil war breaks in India (religious, linguistic reasons)? How many wars (with Pak, China) will take place before 2060? How many decades the region will be pushed back before 2060?

如果印度爆发内战(宗教原因，语言原因)呢?在2060年之前会(和巴基斯坦，中国)发生多少次战争?该地区在2060年之前会逆行倒退多少年?

 

No Congress No Bjp Never-asylum-4 days ago-Follow

it's a mistake, it's China and Russia

这是错误的，应该是中国和俄罗斯

 

Karan-Dehradun-4 days ago-Follow

This is possible Only if Modi stays in power

只有莫迪继续掌权的情况下，这种情况才有可能实现

 

Venakt Gopalakrishnan-Canada-4 days ago-Follow

India has not changed a bit in thousands of years. There are many more Jaichands and Meerjafars today in the garb of misguided Naxals, Comic Commies [it failed in China, Russia and Vietnam but continue to thrive in India], Indira and Sonia Congress [no more the pre-independent dedicated freedom fighting Congress], Communal and Regional fanatics are PLENTY in India to misguide and Confuse the Aam Admi. India can never become a world force. Indians are truly good at pulling each others'' legs within ... Read More

印度在几千年的历史长河中没有任何变化。今天有很多人披着共党的外衣(共产党在中国、俄罗斯和越南都失败了，但在印度继续茁壮成长着)，英迪拉和索尼娅的国大党(不再是独立前为自由而战的国大党了)，公社和地区狂热分子在印度有很多。印度永远不可能成为世界强国。印度人真的很善于互相拖后腿……

 

Rajan Rajan-4 days ago-Follow

Sir RG Khan will be the PM in 2019.india will become super power under him

RG Khan爵士将在2019年担任总理。在他的领导下，印度将成为超级大国

 

N Renganathan-Location-4 days ago-Follow

let us wish OECD predictions come true. it is pertinent to note country''s economy has become fifth highest overtaking France.
against the population of France at 6.7 crores Indian population stands at 134 crores , thereby frittering away all gains.
nothing can be gainful unless mindless population explosion is controlled and brought down steeply.
there is strain everywhere and Metros have become like big shanty towns , to quote one example.
Save Nature, Save Water and Save Country ... Read More

让我们祝愿经合组织的预测成真。值得注意的是，印度的经济已超过法国，排在世界第五。

与法国6700万的人口相比，印度人口达到13.4个亿，因此耗费了所有的收益。

除非盲目的人口爆炸得到控制并且急剧下降，否则经济就无利可图了。

举个例子，到处都很拥堵，地铁就像棚户区一样。

拯救自然，拯救水资源，拯救国家

 

Ginger Guru-Treetop-4 days ago-Follow

I will be the prime minister by 2050.

2050年我将成为首相。

 

Rajkumar-4 days ago-Follow

i think we will become workerbee. while europ and usa enjoy the Life

我想我们会沦为工蜂，而欧洲和美国享受生活

 

futureperfect-Pune-4 days ago-Follow

By 2050 - India will be super power
By 2135 - Timbuktu will become 13th largest economy.
By 2467 - India and China will control 93.234 % of world trade
Note: End of the planet expected by the year 2050

到2050年，印度将成为超级大国

到2135年，廷巴克图将成为第13大经济体。

到2467年，印度和中国将控制93.234%的世界贸易。

注: 地球末日预计是在2050年到来。

 

Nimesh-Pune-4 days ago-Follow

Whose going to live till 2060...Dumb people with their dumb speculation

谁能活到2060年……愚蠢的人才会做这种愚蠢的猜测。

 

a2zdigital-Location-4 days ago-Follow

Is it a praise for India or china? We need to know when achche din will come and where will be India then in world comparison!!!

这是对印度还是对中国的赞美?我们想知道好日子什么时候才会来，在世界排名中印度会排在哪儿!!!

 

Vishal-4 days ago-Follow

by 2060 robots will rule the world and humans will become insignificant.

到2060年，机器人将统治世界，人类将变得无足轻重。

 

Vijay Naidu-Location-4 days ago-Follow

Trade liberalizations of past few decades helped only countries like China. How can anyone forecast 2060 trade realities now based on present trade agreements?

过去几十年的贸易自由化只帮助了像中国这样的国家。

根据目前的贸易协定，谁能预测到2060年的贸易会是什么样?

 

Rahul Sharma-4 days ago-Follow

Fake news India will never be a developed country atleast not until that chaiwala is in power

假新闻，印度永远不会成为发达国家，至少在莫迪掌权之前不会

 

free birdi-Gondwanaland-4 days ago-Follow

in terms of output - india and china are already outputting 60% of world pollution, dirty water, burning garbage and all wonderful things

说到产出——印度和中国已经排放了全球60%的污染、污水、焚烧垃圾和所有美好的东西