quora: 印度人均GDP什么时候能达到中国现在的水平？

When will India achieve China's current GDP per Capita?

印度人均GDP什么时候能达到中国现在的水平？

quora读者评论：

Chris Chen, A Chinese citizen living in Canada

For now, China's nominal GDP per capita is around 8300 USD while that figure for India is around 1700 USD. China is roughly five times more than India. If we want to figure out how long it will take for India to catch up, we need to mention other nations' past performance.

目前，中国名义人均GDP大约8300美元，而印度这一数据为1700美元。

中国人均GDP差不多是印度人均GDP的5倍。

印度要多久才能赶上，这里我们看看其他国家过去的表现。

It took China 10 years to go from the level where India is at right now to the level where China is at right now. (2005-2015)

It took South Korea 13 years to finish the same process. (1979-1992)

It took the UK 15 years to finish the same process. (1964-1979)

It took Japan 9 years to finish the same process. (1969-1978)

It took France 15 years to finish the same process. (1963-1978)

It took Italy 11 years to finish the same process. (1969-1980)

It took Spain 15 years to finish the same process. (1972-1987)

It took Brazil 30 years to finish the same process. (1978-2008)

It took Mexico 27 years to finish the same process. (1979-2006)

It took Turkey 28 years to finish the same process. (1979-2007)

It took Maldives 19 years to finish the same process. (1996-2015)

How long do you think India is going to take?

从印度目前的人均GDP增长到中国现在的人均GDP，中国花了10年，韩国花了13年，英国花了15年，日本9年，法国15年，意大利11年，西班牙15年，巴西30年，墨西哥27年，土耳其28年，马尔代夫19年。

你觉得印度要多久呢？

来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/45955.html

 

Andrew Roberts

TL;DR - minimum of 34 years, so sometime after 2050.

最少34年，也就是2050年后

Yet another middle school math question, that you can either estimate by rearranging the old compound interest formula.

futureValue = presentValue*(1 + rateOfChange)^numbmerOfYears

来看下这个公式：未来的GDP=现在的GDP*（1+变化速度）^年数

Or to put it another way:

numbmerOfYears = ln (futureValue / presentValue ) / ln (1 + rateOfChange)

或者这么写： 年数=ln（未来GDP/现在的GDP）/ln(1+变化速度）

Or turning the gdp growth rate into a vector, and working out the value of x that will intersect a horizontal line running through $7,990, see: Line–line intersection

Anyway assuming India achieves a constant 6% REAL growth rate (slightly better than the OECD forecast below), with an annual population growth rate not exceeding 1.2%, it will turn it's current $1,617 into China's 2015 figure of $7,990 per capita just after 2050, as:

ln(7990/1617) / ln(1+ (0.04 - 0.012)) = 57.853 Years (@ 4% REAL GDP growth)

ln(7990/1617) / ln(1+ (0.05 - 0.012)) = 42.836 Years (@ 5% REAL GDP growth)

ln(7990/1617) / ln(1+ (0.06 - 0.012)) = 34.076 Years (@ 6% REAL GDP growth)

ln(7990/1617) / ln(1+ (0.07 - 0.012)) = 28.336 Years (@ 7% REAL GDP growth)

ln(7990/1617) / ln(1+ (0.08 - 0.012)) = 24.284 Years (@ 8% REAL GDP growth)

....

假设印度真实增速保持6%，人口增速不超过1.2%，那么2050年后，印度人均GDP将由现在的1617美元增加到中国2015年的7990美元。

ln(7990/1617) / ln(1+ (0.04 - 0.012)) = 57.853 年(真实GDP增速为 4% )

ln(7990/1617) / ln(1+ (0.05 - 0.012)) = 42.836 年 (真实GDP增速为 5% )

ln(7990/1617) / ln(1+ (0.06 - 0.012)) = 34.076 年 (真实GDP增速为 6%)

ln(7990/1617) / ln(1+ (0.07 - 0.012)) = 28.336 年 (真实GDP增速为 7%)

ln(7990/1617) / ln(1+ (0.08 - 0.012)) = 24.284 年 (真实GDP增速为 8%)

...

From: India GDP Growth Forecast 2015-2020 and up to 2060, Data and Charts - knoema.com

Even using the PPP multiplier it's forecast to take 20+ years:

即便按照PPP来算，也至少要20年以上。

Gross domestic product per person, volume, at 2005 PPP, USD

 

Zeming Jiang

Mabye…two years.You know, China has a huge wealth gap and its economy will collapse in the next two years. India is a strong country, which can surpass not only China but also the United States in ten years

也许两年就能赶上。

中国贫富差距大，两年后经济就会崩溃。

而印度是一个强国，不仅能超过中国，而且能在10年内超过美国。

 

Dinesh Kumar Jain, former Ambassador at Ministry of External Affairs, India (1975-2012)

China's current (in 2015) nominal per capita GDP is US$ 10,090, whereas India's is 1,820, that is, roughly less than one-fifth. Now, when India will reach China's current level will obviously depend on India's growth rate. Growth rate is not a constant, but changes from year to year depending upon a whole lot of factors, domestic and external, and many of those are not in our control. You ask 10 economists what they would forecast as India's average growth rate over next 2-3 decades and each will give you a different figure. Going by the trend since 1991, the current conditions, and numerous prospective factors, my own best guess would be 6.5%. If we go by that, it is a matter of simple arithmetics to work out that we will take another 28 years to reach China's present income level. A long haul, no doubt. But we could do it much faster IF we could improve our infrastructure, education quality, and IF we could all work harder and more sincerely. A very tall order, again!

中国2015年的名义人均GDP是10090美元，印度是1820美元，还不到中国的五分之一。

印度什么时候能达到中国现在的水平，显然取决于印度的经济增速。

经济增速并非是恒定不变的，由很多因素决定，这些因素有内部的，也有外部的，很多因素不受我们控制，导致每一年增速都不同。

你去问10个经济学家，让他们预测印度未来20-30年的平均增速，每个经济学家给出的数据会有所不同。

从1991年以来的趋势来看，以及当前的经济形势，并参考众多潜在的因素，我猜速度会为6.5%

按照这个速度来算的话，很容易算出我们印度需要28年才能达到中国目前的收入水平。

我们还有很长一段路要走，这是毫无疑问的。

如果能改善基础设施，提高教育质量，而且大家有劲往一处使，那么我们的表现会好得多。

这会是一项非常艰巨的任务。