quora: 印度GDP将在2050年超过美国GDP? 美国会阻止这种情况发生吗?

It is predicted that India’s GDP will overtake USA’s GDP in the year 2050? Are there any chances that America can prevent this from happening?

据预测，印度GDP将在2050年超过美国GDP。美国有可能阻止这种情况的发生吗?

 

纽约

Quora评论翻译：

来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/45960.html    译者：Jessica.Wu

外文：https://www.quora.com/It-is-predicted-that-India-s-GDP-will-overtake-USA-s-GDP-in-the-year-2050-Are-there-any-chances-that-America-can-prevent-this-from-happening

Sree Venkateswarlu Vemulapati, B Tech Engineering

I am not an Economist . But based on whatever I have learnt & understood , reports of this nature are to be seen as those hinting at the Potential based on some assumptions

• With all the respect for the intellectual capital India accumulates every year , the possibility of India overtaking GDP of US in nominal terms or PPP terms is rather very remote
• Sheer logic dictates that after attaining a level of GDP , even with the best of skilled people , Productivity etc , sustenance of growth rates of 6 % plus are difficult.
• India is still decades behind US in Technology Development. Without achieving Technology Leadership close to US levels , is it possible to achieve higher GDP ???
• India is not fortunate enough to have similar per Capita levels of Natural Resources
• India also can not match US in people increasing their spend year on year , even with borrowing , to increase their quality of living
• US is also fortunate that USD is the Currency used all over world and people /Govt all over the world wanting to buy US /USD bonds viz willing to finance the needs of US at a very low interest rate

As regards the specific question , the answer is

“ US I believe is not so much bothered about some other Country crossing their GDP , why should they care ? , but they will be more bothered about

• how it impacts their interests viz , if it enables India to import a lot from US , if US market gets cheaper goods/services from India , if India pays through its nose to get new Defence gadgets , new technologies etc , if Indians enrich their Universities with Fee and academic standards etc
• US will always calibrate their Protectionism in terms of taking in talent , allowing technology Transfer as suited to maximise US interests

So issue is not preventing India from increasing their GDP but more of maximising US Interests even if India’s GDP crosses that of US ?

If somebody is thinking whether it will diminish the Position of US in Geo-Economic - Financial- Technological Power Equations , the answer is the world is already learning to deal with multi polar , diverse power centres as per needed context

我不是经济学家。但根据我所了解到的情况，这只是基于假设的潜能。

• 恕我直言，以名义GDP或购买力平价衡量，印度赶超美国的可能性非常小；
• 在GDP达到某一水平后，即使拥有最优秀的技术人员、生产率等，维持6%以上的增长率也很困难；
• 在技术发展方面，印度仍落后美国几十年。如果技术水平不能赶上美国，GDP是否有可能超过美国???
• 不幸的是，印度拥的人均自然资源水平低于美国；
• 美国人每年都在增加开支，甚至通过借债来提高生活质量，在这方面印度也无法和美国相比；
• 美国也很幸运，美元是全世界都在使用的货币，世界各地的人/政府都想购买美国或美元债券，即愿意以很低的利率为美国提供资金；

关于这一问题，我的回答是：

我认为，美国不太在意其它国家超过其GDP，他们为什么要在意呢?，但他们会更担心以下方面：

• 这将如何影响他们的利益，即这是否将使印度从美国进口很多，是否能让美国市场从印度获得更便宜的商品及服务，印度是否会花大价钱购买新的国防设备、新技术；
• 美国将始终以吸纳人才为标准来衡量它们的保护主义，允许技术转移，以使美国利益最大化。

所以问题不在于阻止印度GDP增长，而在于让美国利益最大化，即使印度的GDP超过美国。

如果有人在想，这是否会削弱美国在地缘经济、金融和技术力量方面的地位，答案是：世界已经在学习如何根据形势应对多极、多样化的权力中心。

 

Ram Krishnaswamy

Highly unlikely. In fact, the US may increase the gap in absolute terms, given our present growth rate, taken as an average of the last 10 or 15 years to smooth things out.

Lets assume the following.

Present GDP. US - 20 Trillion, India - 1.40 Trillion dollars (approx).

200 GDP. US - 40 Trillion, India - 40 Trillion dollars (approx).

To achieve that, US needs to grow at around 2.2% compounded annually, while India needs to grow at over 11% every single year for 32 long years.

Given our population drag (not the demographic dividend we hoped for) and increasingly severe resource crunch and given the possible technological breakthroughs that are possible from the US (which will act as an accelerator for their GDP growth), we should fall further behind.

几乎不可能。事实上，考虑到美国目前的经济增长率，以过去10年或15年的平均增速计算，美国可能会增加绝对增速差距。

我们来做如下假设：

目前GDP：美国约为20万亿，印度约为 1.4万亿。

2050年GDP：美国约为40万亿，印度约为40万亿。

为了实现这一目标，美国需要以每年2.2%左右的速度增长，而印度需要在32年里以每年超过11%的速度增长。

考虑到我们的人口拖累(不是我们希望的人口红利)和日益严重的资源短缺，以及美国可能实现的技术突破(这将加速美国的GDP增长)，我们应该会更加落后于美国。

 

Taran Singh, studied at University of Jammu

Firstly it is very unlikely, for us to have even a slight chance of overtaking US economy , our GDP would have to grow at a pace of 8%+ for the next 30 years and that too assuming it does not slowdown which is highly probable. Also US would grow too between 1.5–3.0% .

Secondly if US wanted it could shut all our trading routes. No imports or exports by sea and most importantly no oil , our country would starve out of energy. Plus we have a trade surplus with them, if they decide to ditch our goods we would face a bigger loss.

Patriotism is fine and all but people need to realistic US isn't going anywhere this century, it will stay the strongest nation on the planet for a long ,long time.

首先，我们几乎不可能超越美国经济，我们的GDP在未来30年里必须以8%以上的速度增长，而且这也是在假设经济不会放缓的情况下，但经济放缓是非常有可能的。而且美国的增长率也会在1.5-3.0%之间。

其次，如果美国想阻止印度，它可以关闭我们所有的贸易路线。没有海上进口或出口，最重要的是没有石油，我们的国家将缺乏能源。另外，我们对美国有贸易顺差，如果他们决定抛弃我们的货物，我们将面临更大的损失。

爱国主义是好的，但人们需要认清现实。本世纪美国将在全球最强大国家这个位置上停留很长很长一段时间。

 

Kevin Donohue, B.A. Economics and Mathematics, Boston University

Assuming India adopts the appropriate institutions and policies to reach a level of living standards/GDP per capita close to that of developed nations, it will have a larger GDP purely by virtue of it’s large population, and there is nothing that can be done of it short of bringing in one billion immigrants or having one billion babies

假设印度采取适当的制度和政策来实现接近发达国家的人均生活水平及人均GDP，其GDP会凭借人口众多而变得更大，除了吸引10亿移民或生育10亿婴儿之外，基本无计可施。

 

Bharat Nadhani, former Ex Mg Director

It is expected that relationship between USA and India will be better.

Because, The Geo political situation is important to USA to counter with China.

The animity with China for USa is for the following reasons:

1.It wants to cature the South China Sea.

2.They Copied the Fighter Aircraft of USA and other inteelct roperties of USA.

3.The Trade deficit with China is large and growing.

on the other hand the position with India is not, nor India exports too much and Economies are more open to them.

So I think growth of both will be complementray and not competitive or frictionery.

India may be nearer but can not exceed the US Economy.

预计美国和印度的关系将会变得更好。

因为印度的地缘政治形势对美国来说很重要，可以与中国抗衡。

美国对中国的敌意有以下几个原因:

1.它想要占领南海。

2.他们抄袭了美国的战斗机和其它知识产权。

3.美国对中国的贸易逆差很大，而且还在不断扩大。

而印度的处境则不同，印度的出口不太多，经济也对美国更加开放。

所以我认为两者的增长都是互补的，而不是竞争或摩擦。

印度经济可能会进一步接近美国经济，但不可能超过他们。

 

Prof. Prem Chander, Director - The Valley School (2016-present)

I am not sure whether any country can help or prevent another from growing its GDP. The growth of a country’s GDP is based on a multiple of factors some of which may be affected by American action or policies.

Predictions about what the world will be like in 2050 are great to make - they help us feel good, many of us will not be around to verify it (most probably the predictor too) and those of us who are will possibly not remember. Predictions of these nature are based on many assumptions and also based on incomplete models. They are good for drawing room debates but have very little value.

我不确定哪个国家能否帮助或阻止另一个国家的GDP增长。一个国家的GDP增长是基于多种因素的，其中一些因素可能会受到美国的行动或政策的影响。

关于2050年的预测能让我们感觉良好，我们中的许多人都不会去验证它(预测者也是)，也可能会把这忘了。这类预测是基于许多假设和不完整的计算模式，它们很适合在客厅里进行辩论，但没有什么价值。

 

Andrew Roberts, Studied Economics a long time ago, but still use money, banks and goods

Tl; Dr; Yes, the US could shutdown Indian growth, and there's a chance it will, intentionally, or as a consequence of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

I’ve seen a few estimates of a GDP (PPP) somewhere between $44.1 tn and $85.97 tn, though in nominal (cash) terms the most optimistic forecast, I've seen, guesses at a $28 tn figure, by 2050, which is still assumed to be below that of China, USA, and EU, in 2050 eg.

• Population 1.7 bn
• GDP (PPP) $44.1 tn
• GDP (MER) $28.0 tn
• GDP per capita (PPP) of $25,941
• GDP per capita (MER) of $16,470
• Consistent 7.9 % GDP (nominal) growth for 32 years
• Consistent 4.9 % GDP (PPP) growth

From: The World in 2050 (PWC)

Or:

• Population 1.63 bn
• GDP (PPP) $85.97 tn
• GDP per capita (PPP) $52,742
• Consistent 6.4 % growth (PPP) for 40 years

From: India to be the world's largest economy by 2050 | ZDNet (2011)

I've also seen reports that suggest India will be as dry as Saudia Arabia, with just as much Agriculture, Industry, and employment, by 2050, eg.

• Drought and Water Security in India
• India is facing its worst water crisis in generations

There’s also been much speculation here, and elsewhere, for decades, as to whether India will achieve India Vision 2020, and become a developed entity by then, which as the date draws near, many a forecaster is now looking rather stupid.

Anyway given 15% of India's GDP is dependent on outsourcing and remitences from the US, or using patent protected US technologies to earn monies from others, the US could simply end India's participation in the H1B visa program, or introduce a technology embargo, as it already has with Iran, North Korea, Somalia, Eritrea, Ivory Coast, Syria, Cuba, … and shut down the Technology sector, and the likes of the US listed Tata Motors overnight, banking sanctions could similarly stop the purchase of dollar priced oil, more or less ending the use of mechanical transport, and plastics in the region, and the pumping of ground water for agriculture, let alone the cheap dollars borrowed for years to plug an ever growing hole in the Union budget. Alternatively the US could impose the same joint venture restrictions on Indian entities wishing to trade in the US, as India imposes on the US, with half the equity, in say Tata, Mahindra, Infosys, … having to be surrendered, obviously with future profits, to the sons of US politician, to obtain a licence to trade. As all would kill India's growth, given the reports forecast future growth will come almost entirely from the service sector, rather than a water intensive agricultural, or rare earth and power scarce manufacturing. Though they don't appear to consider the impact of the fourth Industrial revolution on the service sector growth, with many low level service sector jobs likely to be automated in the next 30 something years, eliminating the need for a Mumbai call center, full of IIT PhD's, handling inquiries about when the drains will be cleared in Birmingham, or even the Indian MBA holders who drive the West's Taxis, and remit monies home ($72bn 2015), let alone how they'll become x10 call center operators in the period, especially given PWC reports India already captures 55% of Global outsourcing revenue, in an increasingly globally competitive market, see: The Growth of Outsourcing in India - Business Opportunities in India.

不错，美国可能会让印度经济停止增长，而这有可能是有意为之，或者是第四次工业革命的结果。

我看到一些预测说到2050年印度GDP(购买力平价)将介于44.1万亿美元和85.97万亿美元之间。尽管是在名义GDP方面，我见过的最乐观的预测是，到2050年，印度GDP将达到28万亿美元，但仍低于中国、美国和欧盟。

到2050年：

• 人口：17亿
• GDP(购买力平价)：44.1万亿美元
• GDP(以市场汇率计算)：28万亿美元
• 人均GDP(购买力平价)：25941美元
• 人均GDP(以市场汇率计算)：16470美元
• 连续32年名义GDP增速：7.9%
• 连续GDP(购买力平价)增速：4.9%

来源：2050年的世界(普华永道)

或者:

• 人口：16.3亿
• GDP(购买力平价)：85.97万亿美元
• 人均GDP(购买力平价)：52742美元
• 连续40年GDP(购买力平价)增速：6.4%

来源：印度到2050年成为世界最大经济体-至顶网 (2011)

我还看到有报告说，到2050年，印度将和沙特阿拉伯一样干燥，农业、工业和就业都将一样：

印度的干旱和水资源安全

印度正面临几代人以来最严重的水资源危机

几十年来，有很多人猜测印度是否会实现2020年的愿景，并在2020年之前成为一个发达经济体。随着日期的临近，许多预测者现在看起来相当愚蠢。

无论如何，鉴于印度GDP的15%依赖于外包和来自美国的汇款、或者使用美国专利保护技术赚别人的钱，美国可以轻松阻止印度的增长，通过终止印度参与H1B签证项目,或引入技术禁运,因为它对伊朗,朝鲜,索马里、厄立特里亚、科特迪瓦、叙利亚、古巴等国家也实施过，让科技行业歇业，比如在美国上市的塔塔汽车。银行业制裁同样可以阻止购买以美元计价的石油，或多或少终止机械运输和塑料在该地区的使用，终止为农业开采地下水，更不用说为填补国家预算日益扩大的缺口，多年来借入的廉价美元了。或者美国可以对希望在美国做生意的印度企业施加相同的合资企业限制比如一半股权，就像印度对美国施加的一样，比如塔塔、马恒达、印孚瑟斯…为了获得贸易许可证，印度不得不向美国政客的儿子们投降，这显然会带来未来的利润。鉴于上述报告预测，未来的增长将几乎完全来自服务业，而非水资源密集型的农业，或稀缺的稀土和电力制造业。尽管他们似乎不考虑第四次工业革命对服务业增长的影响，许多低水平服务行业工作可能会在未来30年实现自动化，不再需要孟买呼叫中心这样的机构，大量印度理工学院的博士在伯明翰处理下水道问题，甚至连印度MBA持有者也在西方国家开出租车，以及从国外汇钱回国(2015年720亿美元)。尤其是普华永道的报告显示，在全球竞争日益激烈的市场上，印度已经占据了全球外包收入的55%。