quora: 印度能在经济上打败中美吗

Will India ever beat Chinas and Americas economy and if that happens what will change in India?

印度将会打败中美经济吗?如果发生这种情况，印度会发生什么变化?

 

Quora评论翻译：

来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/46084.html    译者：Jessica.Wu

外文：https://www.quora.com/Will-India-ever-beat-Chinas-and-Americas-economy-and-if-that-happens-what-will-change-in-India

Martin Andrews, Asian analyst.

The Indian GDP is $10 Trillion, the American GDP is $20 Trillion and the Chinese GDP is $25 Trillion.

For India to “beat” the Chinese economy it would need a growth rate of atleast 20% although India will surpass America, China is a different story.

Realistically speaking India could potentially grow at 10%+ growth rates by applying the perfect economic policy which I have elaborated on Martin Andrews' answer to Why are Sub continent Indian countries doing so poorly in comparison to East Asian countries?

So India will settle for second place until the next revolution.

印度GDP是10万亿美元，美国是20万亿美元，中国是25万亿美元。

要想“打败”中国经济，印度至少需要20%的增长率，尽管印度将超过美国，但要超过中国就没那么容易了。

从现实角度讲，通过实施完美的经济政策，印度有可能以10%以上的速度增长。

因此，印度将在下一次工业革命前屈居第二。

 

Kamal Padam, Co Founder (2010-present)

The question reads “Will India ever beat China's and America's economy, and if that happens, what will change in India?”.

“Ever” is a long long time. India is stuck in the past, all we do is to talk about our past glory, and how to reclaim that. The entire context has changed, but we have not. Unless that happens, there’s not going to be any surge forward.

What we need is a transformation toward developing a scientific temper, and the skill of Critical Thinking. We don’t teach either, outside of a few institutions. Our society is against these, and puts a premium on following traditions, on accepting the wisdom of elders and the wisdom written in ancient texts.

印度沉湎于过去，我们所做的一切就是谈论过去的荣耀，以及如何重拾它。整个时代已经发生了变化，但我们却一成不变。除非我们做出改变，否则不会有任何的发展。

我们需要的是一种转变，发展科学秉性以及批判性思维。除了一些机构，我们也不教授这些。我们的社会反对这些，并且重视遵循传统，重视接受长者和古籍中的智慧。

 

Mohit

Nothing is impossible. Yes, India can but will take long for this to happen. There are a host of things that actually needs to be changed, developed and upgraded in order to get this status.

Some changes

• India will become a export oriented country
• from consumer economy to producer and manufacturer
• strong currency
• upgraded technology
• changed mindset, among others.

一切皆有可能。是的，印度可以做到，但这需要很长时间。为了达到这一目标，实际上有许多事情需要更改、开发和升级。

会发生的一些变化：

• 印度将成为一个出口导向型国家

• 从消费经济转变为生产者和制造商

• 强势货币

• 技术升级

• 观念改变

 

Sathya Ramakrish, B.com Economics & International Relations, Sadakathullah Appa College, Nellai

For India to beat China and US we first have to beat UK,Japan,Germany… Then only we can talk about US and China!!!

Also I dont believe GDP growth will do any good. Our per capita is very very low.

Still a long long way to go

要想打败中国和美国，印度首先要打败英国、日本、德国，然后我们才能谈论美国和中国!!!

我也不认为GDP增长能有多大好处。我们的人均收入非常非常低。

我们还有很长的路要走

 

Vincent D'Mello, worked at Holford Associates

On account of the size of its population which is projected to reach 2.5 billion in 2100, India will surpass the US by nominal GDP size sooner or later; but what’s the point?

由于印度人口预计在2100年达到25亿，印度的名义GDP迟早会超过美国;但这有什么意义呢?

The US’s entire population is four times less than that of India’s. But their per-capita income is much higher, as their human capital is enormously more productive owing to significantly better education levels, vastly better institutional frameworks, significantly better infrastructure and technology, and a significantly freer economy.

印度的总人口是美国的四倍多。但是他们的人均收入要高得多，因为他们的人力资本的生产力要高得多，教育水平要高得多，体制框架要好得多，基础设施和技术要好得多，经济要自由得多。

In terms of dynamism, GDP per-capita, and share of world trade, India won’t beat the US or China’s economy EVER. The reason being that India’s governance system is broken and dysfunctional, and the economy is still mostly shackled by controls and restrictions. This deters investment and entrepreneurship, and hampers the productivity of workers, thereby limiting incomes.

就经济活力、人均GDP和世界贸易份额而言，印度永远不会超过美国或中国。原因在于，印度的治理体系已支离破碎，功能失调，经济仍受到控制和限制的束缚。这阻碍了投资和创业，阻碍了工人的生产力，从而限制了收入。

Unless the Indian economy is liberated and unless the governance system is reformed to first-world standards like Singapore and Australia, there is ZERO CHANCE of India ever surpassing the US and China.

除非印度经济得到解放，并且治理体系按照新加坡和澳大利亚等第一时间国家的标准进行改革，否则印度超越美国和中国的可能性为零。

 

Mathew Cherian, I watch China as they drive the World Economy

Economy is a game of rational players of co-operating type not competitive. So beating someone to the finishing line remain only the realm of sports and not economy sciences. The reason being, objectives of economic science excludes such degenerate behaviours here as competition. Economies of a nation are run for the social welfare of its citizen not g for evil gratification of the nation, which if existed then it would have ceased to be a Ladnier type economy, meaning an economy run to theoretical standards of scale. The scale is resource allocation to the most useful entities of the economy.

经济是一种理性的、合作型而非竞争性的博弈。因此，打败某人只属于体育领域，而非经济科学。原因在于，经济学的目标排除了竞争等堕落行为。一个国家的经济是为其公民的社会福利而运行的，而不是为了国家邪恶的满足感。

 

Pravinchandra G Dhameliya, Project Manager (2015-present)

It is highly unlikely in two decades.

However Russia was looking like invincible till 1990.

Now in 2018 Russian economy is on 12 no. And India at 5.

China was very poor till 1970. Now it is Second biggest economy by nominal and Largest in PPP.

My point is if India continue progressing like this for two decades India certainly become third pole of power.

Certainly during 1990 to 2015 America was looking like one Nation show.

But last few years we can feel, USA influence is diminishing.

So who knows? China and USA having one major conflicts and USA may vanish like Britain and China like Germany ( After WW II). And India and Europian union can become like Russia and USA of cold war era.

I am feeling like major change in world order.

Next two decades are crucial.

这在20年内是不太可能的。

然而，在1990年之前俄罗斯看起来是不可战胜的。

但到2018年，俄罗斯经济排名第12位，印度排在第5位。

中国直到1970年都很穷。如今，按名义价值计算，中国已成为全球第二大经济体，按购买力平价计算则是全球第一大经济体。

我的观点是，如果印度继续这样发展20年，印度肯定会成为第三大国。

当然，从1990年到2015年，看起来就像是美国的独角戏。

但最近几年，我们可以感觉到，美国的影响力正在减弱。

所以谁知道以后会发生什么呢?中国和美国有一个主要冲突，美国可能会像二战后的英国一样衰退，中国会而战后的德国一样崛起(二战后)，而印度和欧洲联盟可能会像冷战时期的俄罗斯和美国一样。

我感觉世界秩序正在发生重大变化。

未来20年至关重要。

 

Aakash Ranga

Yeah beating economy is possible, pretty possible. But not in power.

Establishing economic superiority won't change much in India because it's the changes in the first place that will help India grow economically. So better tax collection, increased tax net. Growth in industrial output, increased employment, reduction in poverty, better health care facilities, longer life expectancy, increased in luxury goods market segment, reduction in malnutrition are some of the things that come to mind.

是的，打败他们的经济是很有可能的，但实力方面就不太可能了。

建立经济优势不会给印度带来太大的变化，因为是这些改变首先促进了印度经济的增长。所以我能想到的一些变化有：更好的税收征管，税收净额的增加，工业产出的增长，就业的增加，贫困的减少，医疗保健设施的改善，预期寿命的延长，奢侈品市场份额的增加，营养不良的减少。

 

Aaditya, former Self Employed

Not possible. For India to beat China or US,one of the country must suffer economic crisis. If the economy of US or China continues to grow,it will not be possible for Indian economy to match them. In future,if China faces bad times,only then India can beat China.

Else,India will surely be third largest economy.

不可能。印度要想打败中国或美国，除非是他们遭受到经济危机。如果美国或中国的经济继续增长，印度经济就不可能赶上他们。如果将来中国面临困难时期，印度才有可能打败中国。

否则，印度肯定只能成为第三大经济体。

 

Kanchana Muralidhar, Online Journalist at Rainbow Organisation

Thanks for A2A. India can beat China or USA only if it reduces 23% Poverty & comes on par with USA in economic & defence. USA is richest because of its gold reserves & top most technology in defence. USA has invested a lot in defence that even China or India cannot match them. It may take several years to catch up.

印度只有减少23%的贫困，在经济和国防上与美国并驾齐驱，才能打败中美经济。美国之所以最富有，是因为它的黄金储备和最先进的国防技术。美国在国防上投入巨大，连中国和印度都无法与之匹敌。印度可能需要数年才能赶上。