美版知乎quora：印度和中国，谁会是下一个超级大国

Who will be the next superpower - India or China?

下一个超级大国是哪个？印度还是中国？

 

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Rajagopalan K Suryanarayan, works at Bengaluru, Karnataka, India

Both India and China wish to be super power. China is now a $ 11 trillion economy where as India is $2.25 trillion economy. In the following paragraph I will compare India and China.

印度和中国都希望成为超级大国。中国是一个11万亿美元的经济体，而印度的经济体量是2.25万亿美元。在下面一段中，我将对比一下印度和中国。

1.Indian GDP at 7.6% on 2015 -16 is highest. Whereas China’s GDP at 6.9% is second. But the economy of China is four times higher.

2.As per RBI 22%, of India are living below line. They are living with less than Rs3000 per month. Nearly 10000 villages do not have electricity. The whole of India will be electrifued by the end of this financial year. India is also taking up the project of providing quality electricity. Entire population is provided bank accounts. During 2016-17 with an allocation of Rs 2000 crores, is providing LPG to 1.5 crores of households. This will be continued for the next two years to cover 5 crore households. Whereas China too has poverty, but the percentage is less. One in every ten is living in poverty in China. Nearly 82 million are living below poverty line. They are living with less than 2300 yuan ($ 370). Two hundred thousand Chinese do not have electricity. Six million Chinese do not have clean fuel to heat and cook . Three quarters of global poverty reduction between 1995 to 2013 occurred in China. 12.5 million were moved from poverty in 2013 in China.

3.In steel production China is first with 803.3 million tons ranks first and India 89.58 million tons as on 2015, is third. With 280 million tons of cement production India is second largest and China with 2500 million tons stands first. With refining capacity of 12.54 Mbd is ranked second and India with 4.1 Mbd is ranked 5. China is refining 12.5% of global requirement and India 4.5%. In electricity China with 5398 billion Kwh is first and India with 871 billion Kwh is fifth .

1。印度GDP在2015-16年为7.6%，是全球最高的。中国的GDP为6.9%，位居第二。但中国的经济体量是印度的四倍。

2。据印度央行的数据，22%的印度人民生活在贫困线以下。他们每月生活费不足3000卢比。近1万个村庄没有通电。到本财政年度末，印度将实现全境通电。印度也仍在努力进行高质量供电。所有人口将开立银行账户。2016年至2017年，拨款2000亿卢比向1.5亿家庭提供液化石油气。这将在未来两年继续下去，覆盖50亿家庭。中国也有贫困人口，但比例较低。在中国，十分之一的人生活在贫困之中。近8200万人生活在贫困线以下。他们的生活费不足2300元(370美元)。20万中国人没有电。600万中国人没有清洁燃料取暖和做饭。1995年至2013年，全球减贫四分之三发生在中国，2013年中国有1250万人摆脱了贫困。

3。在钢铁产量方面，中国以8.033亿吨的产量排名第一，印度以8958万吨排名第三。印度水泥产量为2.8亿吨，位居第二，中国水泥产量为25亿吨，位居第一。中国的炼油能力为12.54万桶/天，排名第二，印度4.1万桶/天排名第五。在电力方面，中国的发电量为5,398亿千瓦时，印度为8,710亿千瓦时，排名第五。

4.Both China and India are nuclear state and both are signatories to No First User of Nuclear bomb. China is ranked third militarily with a military personnel of 2,285,000 and reserve of 2,300,000, Aircraft of 2788, tanks 9150 and Subs 69. India is ranked fourth with military personnel of 1,321,000 and a reserve of 2,143,000, aircraft 1905, tanks 6464, Subs 15. China has ICBM but India is yet to produce one. Agni VI is in advanced stage of testing. India has Ballistic Missile Defence System. Only four countries US, Russia, Isreal and India has them. China is yet to develop one. Brahmos is another missile which do not have a deterrent or equalizer in China. India has two aircraft carriers whereas China has one.

5.Ten years before China was a two trillion US dollar economy. It has developed into the present eleven trillion economy. India too is 2.25 trillion dollars economy now and it's growth is fastest. India will take at least another eight years to reach 10 trillion dollar economy with a growth rate between 8 to 11% of GDP.

6.Chinese debt is huge. There is every possibility China will be trapped in debt. Now for every dollar of growth China has to incurr a debt of 6 dollars. The present debt is 245% of GDP which is disturbing. Indian debt is 61% of GDP which bis quite stable or safe.

7.At present China seem to be reaching fast the status of Super Power. But India is doing very well in all fundamentals . But to reach the Super Power status, if China because of its weak economic growth and huge debt get burst there is every possibility of China being derailed.

4。中国和印度都是有核国家，都是签署了不首先使用核武器的国家。中国军事排名第三，军事人员228.5万人，预备役23万人，飞机2788架，坦克9150辆，潜艇69艘。印度排名第四，军事人员132万人，储备214.3万人，1905架飞机，6464辆坦克，15艘潜艇。中国有洲际弹道导弹，但印度还没有。烈火6导弹处于测试的末期。印度有弹道导弹防御系统。只有美国、俄罗斯、以色列和印度这4个国家拥有这些系统。中国还没有研发成功。布拉莫斯导弹是又一个中国尚未拥有可威慑或可有效抗衡的武器。印度有两艘航空母舰，中国有一艘。

5。十年前，中国是一个2万亿美元的经济体。现在它已经发展到11万亿的规模。印度经济规模达到了2.25万亿美元，增长速度也是全球最快。如果GDP的增长率维持在8%到11%之间，印度至少还需要8年的时间才能达到10万亿美元的规模。

6。中国的债务是庞大的。中国极有可能陷入债务困境。现在，中国每增长1美元，就必须背负6美元的债务。目前的债务是GDP的245%，这令人不安。印度债务占GDP的61%，这是相当稳定和安全的。

7。目前，中国似乎正迅速接近超级大国的地位。但印度在所有基本面都做得很好。但在成为超级大国的路上，如果因为经济增长疲弱和巨额债务而崩溃，中国完全有可能脱轨。

 

Pavan Addanki, Indian forever !!

As an Indian, I am fascinated by China and what is stands for in the modern world today. I keep reading stories of comparisons of India’s and China’s economy. Many have predicted that both will become bitter rivals in the near future and will aim to outdo the other. Some say that China already has a head start over India as it opened it’s economy very early, while India was late. Many say that China’s economy is many years ahead and it will take years for India to catch up with it.

But that depends on whether India really wants to catch up with China.

作为一名印度人，我对中国以及现代世界的标准非常关心。我一直在阅读印度和中国经济对比的故事。许多人预测，在不久的将来，这两个国家都将成为死对头，力争超过彼此。有人说，中国已经比印度领先了，因为它开放的时间较早，而印度较晚。许多人说，中国经济领先了许多年，印度要赶上中国需要很多年的努力。

但这取决于印度是否真的想赶上中国。

No one can accurately predict the future and how conditions will be (except if you are Nostradamus). But as an Indian, I can tell you one thing. I really don't care if China stays ahead of India in the long run. As an Indian, I am focussed only on India and looking for ways and means to make my country a heaven.  Our politicians are focussed on making India a better place for present and future generations. They work tirelessly day and night to ensure better governance and more opportunities and economic freedom for our citizens. What matters is not whether our neighbour is a super power or not. What matters is that the citizens of our country stay happy, healthy, peaceful and prosperous. What matters is that every Indian gets to lead  the life he/she wants, get to see the world, given freedom to pursue chosen opportunities and make their dreams come true etc. etc. And for that India will have to look inwards, and grow from within. Economic and democratic freedom should be available for all. There is no point in being a wealthy nation if wealth is unfairly concentrated in the hands of a few and many are left penniless. There is no point if a select few Indian individuals shine in the global stage while many other struggle to get opportunities and facilities to prove themselves.

And to India’s credit, it has not tried to compete with China or any other developing or developed nation. Sure, the Indian economy made a slow start. But it takes time for a flower to bloom and India’s economy is now picking up the pace and reaping the benefits.

没有人能准确预测未来和未来的状况(除非你是诺查丹玛斯)。但作为一个印度人，我可以告诉你一件事。从长远来看，我真的不在乎中国是否领先印度。作为一个印度人，我只关注印度本身，希望找到让我的祖国成为人间天堂的方法。我们的政治家能够努力把印度变成一个对现在和未来几代人来说更好的地方。他们夜以继日不知疲倦地工作，以确保我们的公民有更好的治理、更多的机会和经济的自由。我们的邻国是否是超级大国并不重要。重要的是我们国家的公民能够幸福、健康、和平与繁荣。重要的是，每个印度人都能过上自己想要的生活，自由地追求自己选择的机会，实现自己的梦想等等。如果财富不公平地集中在少数人手中，而许多人身无分文，那么成为一个富裕国家毫无意义。如果只有少数印度人能在全球舞台上大放异彩，而其他许多人难以获得机会来证明自己，那就没有意义了。

值得赞扬的是，印度从未试图与中国、任何其他发展中国家或发达国家竞争。当然，印度经济起步缓慢。但鲜花盛开需要时间，印度经济现在正在加快步伐，并从中获益。

I have nothing personal against China or Chinese (unless they act as a hindrance to our progress). China, like India has a rich cultural history and there is a lot both nations can learn by co-operating with each other, rather than fighting each other. We have similar problems and can work mutually for eradicating them. I have deep respect for Chinese as they are a hard working people. Like Indians, they too have made their mark in other countries, especially South East Asia.

My knowledge of China’s economy is very limited, and further more, I am not an economist so I really cannot predict how China’s and India’s economy will shape in the future. But I can tell you this, both nations are mature and know better that they must not compete with each other, but rather compete with themselves and ensure peace, harmony and prosperity for their respective citizens.

Jai Hind !!

我对中国或中国人没有个人的反感(除非他们妨碍了我们的进步)。中国和印度一样，有着丰富的文化历史，两国可以通过相互合作而不是相互对抗来学习很多东西。我们有相似的问题，可以共同努力消除问题。我很尊敬中国人，因为他们是勤劳的民族。和印度人一样，他们也在其他国家，尤其是东南亚，留下了自己的印记。

我对中国经济的了解非常有限，而且我不是经济学家，所以我真的无法预测中国和印度的经济在未来会如何。但我可以告诉你们，这两个国家都是成熟的，更清楚地知道彼此不应该相互竞争，而应该跟自己竞争，确保各自国家公民的和平、和谐和繁荣。

印度必胜! !

Prasanth Valsan K, B.E Computer Science, Sri Venkateswara College of Engineering (2009)

Neither India not China i

Neither nation is going to replace the United States as a global superpower in terms of military prowess, diplomatic clout and allies. India and China can at best be economic powers and aspire to provide a higher quality of life to their citizens. But it is going to take at least a century, if not more.

I would list the reasons for the US’ pre-eminence as follows:

既不是印度也不是中国

在军事实力、外交影响力和盟友方面，这两个国家都不会取代美国成为全球超级大国。印度和中国充其量可以成为经济强国，为本国公民提供更高质量的生活。但这至少需要一个世纪，甚至更长时间。

我将列举美国之所以出类拔萃的原因如下:

1 Location:

The US

The United States occupies a prime piece of real estate. It has direct access to 2 of the biggest oceans in the world and through them, direct access to the largest economies of Asia, Western Europe and to the resource rich African continent.

Look at the world map with the US at the centre and you will understand:

It has relatively weak and small neighbours namely Canada and Mexico that pose no military threat to its territory. More importantly, the US has settled borders which means that it does not have to station large divisions of its military at the border to secure it from an external invasion. Furthermore, it is the only nuclear weapon state in the Western hemisphere.

1位置:

美国

美国占有最好的位置。它拥有直接进入世界上最大的两个海洋的通道，并通过它们直接进入亚洲、西欧和资源丰富的非洲大陆。

看看以美国为中心的世界地图，你就会明白:

它有相对弱小的邻国：加拿大和墨西哥，对其领土不构成军事威胁。更重要的是，美国已经划定了边界，这意味着它不必在边界部署大量军队，防止外敌入侵。此外，它是西半球唯一的核武器国家。

India and China

Neither India nor China enjoys any of these benefits. Both nations have unsettled borders and both nations spend billions keeping the border secure, even from one another. Both nations have hostile nuclear armed neighbours. India has Pakistan and China to deal with. China has India, Russia and North Korea to deal with. So simplistic comparisons of military size with the US is moot. The American armed forces are placed all over the world whereas those of India and China are right at their respective borders. This limits the ability of both India and China to project power in other areas of the world.

印度和中国

印度和中国都没有享受到这些好处。这两个国家都有尚未划定的边界，两国都花费了数十亿美元来确保边境安全，甚至是彼此两国间的安全。这两个国家都有拥有核武器的敌对邻国。印度需要对付巴基斯坦和中国。中国需要对付印度、俄罗斯和朝鲜。因此，将军事规模与美国进行简单比较是毫无意义的。美国的军队分布在世界各地，而印度和中国的军队分布在各自的边界。这限制了印度和中国在世界其他地区展现实力的能力。

 

Waqar Ahmad, Officially patriotic Muslim Indian citizen

The current and next super power for the near future is China.

This conclusion is based on economic, political, social parameters and on all of them China is way way ahead of India.

China has Poor's but they are less poor then ours.

Their dominance of world trade and international bodies is far superior. they have veto power in UN. If u will read the bylaws of newly formed BRICS bank then u will get to know that even in that they are on a strong footing against all other members including India.

当前和未来的超级大国是中国。

这一结论是基于经济、政治和社会参数得出的，在所有这些方面，中国都远远领先于印度。

中国有穷人，但没有我们贫穷。

他们在世界贸易和国际组织中的主导地位要优越得多。他们在联合国拥有否决权。如果你读过新成立的金砖银行的章程，你就会知道，即便是在金砖银行与包括印度在内的所有其他成员国的竞争中，他们都有着强大的基础。

 

William Moore, Lived in China for a year

Well to answer the question you really must define superpower.

The answer is “Nations that can extent there influence anywhere in the world.”

There really most likely wont be another super power for a long time.

But Nations that CAN be super powers if things go well for them.

要回答这个问题，你必须定义超级大国。

答案是“能够影响世界任何地方的国家”。

很可能在很长一段时间内不会再有超级大国出现。

如果不出意外，这些国家有可能成为超级大国。

North America: Mexico.

South America: Brazil. (This one is actually a good bet on the same level as India and China)

Europe: Russia. (Its not likely but not impossible)

The Scandinavian nations. (As a group)

The EU itself. (They might actually be a super power already if you considered them one political group)

France or Germany. Maybe the UK.

北美:墨西哥。

南美洲:巴西。(实际上，这是一个与印度和中国不相上下的好选择)

欧洲:俄罗斯。(可能性不大，但并非绝无可能)

北欧国家。(作为一个整体)

欧盟本身。(如果你把他们看作一个政治整体的话，他们可能已经是超级大国了)

法国或德国。也许英国。

Africa: Really South Africa is the only place that is even possible right now, and that’s a really long shot.

Middle East: Turkey and Iran if they can solve a lot of issues.

Asia: India. China. South Korea. Japan. Any of them can. I would have said China was the best bet before I lived there.

Having lived in all four nations now….

I’m not really sure about China. And I’m just going to say no to India for a while.

非洲:南非是目前唯一一个有可能实现的国家，虽然这个希望非常渺茫。

中东:土耳其和伊朗，如果他们能解决很多问题。

亚洲:印度，中国，韩国，日本。他们中的任何一个都可以。在我住在中国之前，我会说中国是最好的选择。

我现在在这四个国家都生活过....

我不敢肯定中国行不行。但印度暂时没可能。

 

Pravinchandra G Dhameliya, Project Manager (2015-present)

In near future next super power is China.

As of today China economy is more than 4 times that of India.

Their military is larger than India in all comparable measures.

China has intervened in many countries and they have self belief and crack down on any adversary if they feel to.

China already have veto power which India is not likely to get in Immediate future.

US is real superpower and they have many reservation towards India and they are more inclined to China.

Officially China GDP in absolute term is more than USA so they are actually economic superpower already what they need to do is built military power and international influence in strategic terms.

在不久的将来，下一个超级大国将是中国。

截至今天，中国经济是印度的4倍多。

在所有可比较的指标上，他们的军队都比印度强大。

中国已经在很多国家进行了干预，他们有自信，如果他们觉得有必要，就会打击任何对手。

中国已经拥有否决权，而印度不太可能在近期内获得。

美国是真正的超级大国，他们对印度有很多保留，更倾向于中国。

从官方的角度来看，中国的绝对GDP超过了美国，所以他们实际上已经是经济超级大国了，他们需要做的是建立军事力量和战略上的国际影响力。

 

SHASHANK PAI K, Researched emerging Superpowers

India has a slightly greater chance Over China. Read why.

Excluding Contemporary Western Nations , the rest of the world thinks the two Major contenders for the potential superpower throne are China and India. While majority of them think China, the fastest growing economy as the next leading Nation , considerable amount of People beleive in India ,as they think India is comparable to it’s counterpart with similar history, demographics and more importantly India’s ‘free’

与中国相比，印度的机会略大一些。为什么呢。

除了当代西方国家，世界其他地区认为，中国和印度是潜在超级大国宝座的两大竞争者。尽管大多数人认为中国是增长最快的经济体，将成为下一个领先国家，但仍有相当多的人相信印度，因为他们认为印度可以与拥有相似历史、人口结构的国家相媲美

 

Jay Desai, studies at Sydenham Institute of Management Studies, Research and Entrepreneurship Education (2019)

Both the countries are going to be SuperPower before the end of this century.

China will be the first one to become a SuperPower. Thereafter India will also become a SuperPower in next two decades approximately.

Both the countries are economy powerhouses and they have a large armies. China is already a manufacturing house of the world. India is also likely to join this club as Make In India Initiative is already showing its results.

这两个国家都将在本世纪末成为超级大国。

中国将成为率先成为超级大国。然后，印度也将在未来20年左右成为超级大国。

这两个国家都是经济强国，拥有庞大的军队。中国已经是世界制造业中心。印度也有可能加入这个俱乐部，因为“印度制造”计划已经初见成效。

 

Chinmay, studied at The Institute of Chartered Accountants of India

I thought china will be the superpower . It is just because of non-circulation of money in India . If money got circulation then I am sure, next superpower will be India . I will explain with the example ..!

• Think why Indians are not purchasing indian light for Deepawali, why they are purchasing Chinese light ..?
• If you will go to market you see, Indian light cost ₹100 and Chinese light cost ₹40 …
• If all people get employment then money get circulation, if nobody do Corruption then money get circulation …
• And when all get high salary then they can purchase expensive also, and that's how people can serve Indian economy and money also get circulation …
• In foreign countries there is huge circulation of money (employer gives huge salary, employees spend it on weekends then employer gives salary …) .
• But in India people does not spend money and add to their stocks, corruption sucks whole of the economy and that's why India can't be superpower .

我以为中国会成为超级大国。原因就是印度没有货币流通。如果货币流通，我相信下一个超级大国将是印度。我将用例子来解释…

• 想想，为什么印度人不购买印度造的灯，而要买中国的灯具?
• 如果你去市场，你就会发现，印度灯具成本要₹100，中国灯具成本只要₹40…
• 如果所有人都有工作，那么钱就能得到流通，如果没有人贪污腐败，那么钱就能得到流通……
• 如果所有人都获得高收入，他们也可以购买价格高的东西，这就是人们可以为印度经济做的贡献，钱也会得到流通……
• 国外有充分的资金流通(雇主给了高额的工资，员工在周末消费，然后雇主给发工资…)
• 但在印度，人们不花钱，只会存起来，腐败把整个经济搞得一团糟，这就是为什么印度不能成为超级大国的原因。

 

Nitesh Ambuj, A Proud Indian

The world is becoming more interdependent rather than a country centric. India will have close ties with US, Japan, and European Union while China will have close ties with Russia, Islamic Nations, and African countries. But, the relationship will not be that simple. There would be business flow from India to China, India to Russia, China to US and so on.

Currency war will shift to war against cryptocurrency and entire world (govt organizations) will join hands to fight against that.

10–20 years down the line, there would be competition in space exploration and there would even be combined operation (US + China + India +European Union+..) to achieve greater feats.

世界正变得更加相互依存，而非以国家为中心。印度将与美国、日本和欧盟保持密切联系，而中国将与俄罗斯、ysl国家和非洲国家保持密切联系。但是，这种关系不会那么简单。商业从印度流向中国，印度流向俄罗斯，中国流向美国等等。

货币战争将转向加密货币的战争，整个世界将携手对抗。

10-20年后，太空探索领域将会出现竞争，甚至会出现联合作战(美国+中国+印度+欧盟+..)，以取得更大的成就。

 

Faraz Yusuf Khan, Dil hai Hindustani.

China.

1.GDP per capita of China is $12,880 while India lacks behind at $5,885

2.China is the fastest growing economy while India is the second fastest growing economy

3.According to International Monetary Fund China is the second largest economy while India is the 7th largest economy.

4.United States owes more than $1 Trillion USD to China

5.Chinese political will is iron-clad, they have been flexing muscles in South China Sea confronting both Japan and United States. While India is a peace loving country who has never initiated a first strike war in all it’s existence

6.China has a considerably larger nuclear arsenal than India and also has about 5? nuclear submarines with India just having one that too on lease from Russia

7.China already has a permanent United Nations Security Council seat while India is a long way from having one.

中国

1。中国的人均GDP为12,880美元，而印度的人均GDP为5,885美元

2。中国是增长最快的经济体，印度是增长第二快的经济体

3。根据国际货币基金组织的数据，中国是第二大经济体，而印度是第七大经济体。

4。美国欠中国的债务超过1万亿美元

5。中国的政治意志是钢铁铸造的，他们一直在南中国海与日本和美国对抗。印度是一个热爱和平的国家，从来没有主动发动过空袭战争

6。中国的核武库比印度大得多，拥有大约5艘核潜艇，印度只有一艘核潜艇，还是从俄罗斯租借的

7。中国已经拥有联合国安理会常任理事国席位，而印度离这个席位还有很长的路要走。

 

Aakash Mitra, studied at M.S.Ramaiah Institute of Management

I will give you short and crisp answer for your question. China is the next superpower, as a matter of fact China is a superpower. All this while they haven’t worked much with foreign relations but now things are changing and they are also focused on foreign relations. India on the other hand has lot of issues which needs to be tackled and solved. Foreign debt is the biggest challenge above all as we have huge debts which makes us less credit reliant country and our per capita income is also less as compared to other many other developing nation. So in a nutshell China is way ahead of India despite if we discuss about their infrastructure, exports, defense system and hence it’s a bitter pillow to swallow that China has upper edge then India

让我来简短而干脆地回答你的问题。中国会是下一个超级大国，事实上中国已经是超级大国了。虽然他们在外交方面做得不多，但现在情况正在发生变化，他们也关注外交关系。另一方面，印度有很多问题需要解决。外债是最大的挑战，因为我们有巨额债务，这使我们对信贷的依赖程度降低，我们的人均收入也低于其他许多发展中国家。所以简单地说，尽管我们讨论中国的基础设施、出口、国防体系，但中国远远领先印度。因此，中国比印度有优势，这是一个难以接受的事实

 

Anonymous

I think India may be the next superpower. It is so, because China has an older population, spoiled environment and almost no water reserves. China really needs water and natural gas. India’s chances are limited by the un-organized systems in specific entities and needs to work hard. India’s advantages are that it has a young population, natural resources and water (though it has to be noted that water is fast disappearing).

我认为印度可能是下一个超级大国。因为中国人口老龄化，环境污染严重，而且几乎没有水资源储备。中国急需水和天然气。印度受到某些散乱无组织的系统的限制，需要发愤图强。印度的优势在于它拥有年轻的人口、自然资源和水资源(尽管必须指出，水资源正在迅速消失)。

 外文链接：https://www.quora.com/Who-will-be-the-next-superpower-India-or-China