Quora: 印度经济什么时候能超过中国经济

Will the Indian economy exceed China?

印度经济什么时候能超过中国经济？

quora读者的评论：

Harsh Bansal, Civil Servant at Government of India (2017-present)

India has a big advantage which china does n’t which is demographic dividend.India’s 65% population is below 35 and on the other hand China’s population is ageing which led to Increase in labor cost.When labor cost will rise then all manufacturing companies try to shift their base in country where they will get abundant labor at low cost.This will be our India.

印度有一个巨大的优势是中国没有的，那就是人口红利。

印度65%的人口年龄在35岁以下，而中国人口不断在老化，导致用工成本不断上升。

劳动力成本上升后，工厂就会迁往劳动力成本更低的国家，也就是我们印度

But Tricky part is there that we have to make successful our “Make In India” and “Skill India” initiative through various reforms like Tax reforms, reducing red tap-ism, labor reforms and also focus on massive infrastructure building like roads,railways etc .

If all this done properly through political stability then definitely Indian economy exceed China.

I wish that dream become reality so that we can ensure economic justice to people which is promised by Preamble of Constitution.

棘手的是，我们的“印度制造”计划必须取得成功，先进行税收改革，减少繁文缛节，修改劳动法，大规模修建公路和铁路等基础设施。

如果这一切都能有条不紊地进行，而且能同时保持政治稳定，那么印度经济必定能超过中国经济。

希望这个梦想能成真。

 

Naby Souleymane Bangoura

It’s possible but it’s unlikely. China has been growing just as fast as India if not faster and India has only JUST began to grow faster thanks to Modi. China had a 15 year head start. Also I think the socialism has helped China because it educates the new generation and because the state supports most businesses financially; India is capitalist and its democracy means decisions take time to take effect. I’d say India has the potential to exceed China sometime between 2050 and 2070

可能超过中国经济，又不大可能超过。

中国经济增速即使没有比印度经济更快，也至少一样快。

印度还是多亏了莫迪，经济才开始有起色的。

中国有15年的先发优势。

社会主义推动了中国的发展，教育了新一代人，国家在财政上支持企业发展。

印度的敏煮，意味着决策比较费时间。

这样说吧，印度是有超过中国的潜力，超过的这个时间点介于2050年至2070年之间。

 

Robbie Jena, Industrial Ecosystems and Strategy Architect

Not for 70 years…then we shall see…

70年内超不过

 

Liu Chenshuo（刘 辰烁）, lives in China

As a Chinese,although I would be morose if it happen in the future,but I clarity know nothing is impossible,just 10 years ago,lots of Chinese is very pessimism whether China’s GDP overtake Japan’s but the truth tell world that it complished in 2010,I believe India’s potent and hope a lager cooperation between us.

我是中国人。如果印度经济以后超过中国经济，我会感到郁闷。

不过，没有什么是不可能的。就在10年前，很多中国人还 感到悲观，不知道中国GDP是否能超过日本GDP。

现在大家都知道了，中国GDP在2010年就超过日本GDP了。

我相信印度的潜力。

 

Anonymous

To be frank No

坦白说，超不过

First let me make it clear that India would never gonna beat China in living standards.

这么说吧，印度人的生活水平永远超不过中国

China’s GDP is USD 11.4 trillion (2016; IMF). India’s GDP is USD 2.25 trillion (2016; IMF). These economies are in no way comparable. The Chinese economy is more than 5 times larger. China’s GDP per capita stands at USD 8,260 and that of India at USD 1,718. China’s population (1.37 billion) and the population of India (1.34 billion) are comparable — but China is five times richer on a per capita basis.

中国GDP规模为11.4万亿美元，印度GDP为2.25万亿美元。

两国经济规模没得比，有着巨大差距。

中国经济规模是印度经济的5倍。

中国人均GDP为8260美元，印度人均GDP为1718美元。

中国人口13.7亿，印度人口13.4亿。

中国人均GDP是印度人均GDP的5倍。

Based on these figures, India will add USD 129 in economic output on a per capita basis if it grows at a pace of 7.5%. Similarly, if China grows by 6.3%, its output will increase by USD 520 per capita.

这么看来，如果印度增长7.5%，人均GDP将增加129美元；如果中国增长6.3%，人均GDP增加520美元。

Those who say that India is home to the world’s largest economic growth have not even done primary school math on the situation. India actually needs to grow at more than 30% to outpace China in absolute terms per capita.

有些人说印度是世界上经济增长最快的国家，其实他们连小学算数都不会算。

实际上，要在绝对增量上超过中国，印度增速必须在30%以上。

It helps to play around with the numbers cited above to understand how erroneous expectations have been. If one assumes that India continues to grow at a rate of 7.5%, and China at a rate of 6.3% from here on out, it will take 127 years before India’s per capita growth will actually begin to exceed China’s.

如果印度经济保持7.5%的增速，中国经济保持6.3%的增长，那么印度需要127年，人均GDP的增量才会开始超过中国