反对党：废钞令，实践证明了它好不好 [印度媒体]

Since demonetisation, quarterly growth (and hence annual growth) has settled at between 6 and 7%. The CSO numbers for Q1 of 2017-18 are worse: GDP 5.7%, GVA 5.6% and manufacturing GDP 1.2%. Is that not a catastrophic blow to the economy?

自从废钞以来，季度增长（因此影响年度增长）停在6%到7%之间。2017-18财年第一季度的中央统计局数据更糟：GDP 5.7%，GVA 5.6%，制造业GDP 1.2%。这不是对经济的灾难性打击吗？

Written by P Chidambaram | Published:September 3, 2017 12:04 am

作者：印度前财政部长



Demonetisation had led to long queues at ATMs across the city.

废钞令导致整个城市的ATM机大排长龙。

It is said that everybody is entitled to their opinions, but not to their facts. And the facts are here, finally. The Reserve Bank of India published its Annual Report on August 30, 2017, the last date allowed under the law. The report confirms what many of us had said — demonetisation was the worst example of incompetent policy-making. About Rs 15,28,000 crore, by value, of demonetised notes (or 99 per cent of the total value of Rs 15,44,000 crore) have been returned to the RBI. So, the main objective of forcing people with black money to suffer losses has failed miserably.

都说每个人都有权利表达观点，但不是说出事实。而最终，事实在这里。印度储备银行在法定限期的2017年8月30日发布了年度报告。该报告确认了我们当中很多人曾说过的——废钞令是无能的政策制定的最糟糕例子。大约价值15.28万亿卢比的废钞（或者总价值15.44万亿卢比的99%）回到了印度储备银行。因此，迫使持有黑钱的人遭受损失的主要目的很可悲地失败了。

The Original Objectives

最初的目标

We were told that Rs 4-5 lakh crore of cash will not come back into the banking system. The RBI would extinguish those liabilities on its balance sheet and pass on the windfall as dividend to the government. And everybody, except those who had hoarded black money, will live happily ever after. That fairy tale is now over.

他们告诉我们说有4到5万亿卢比现金将不会回到银行系统。印度储备银行就可以偿清资产负债表上的那些债务，并把这笔横财作为赠品交给政府。然后，除了那些藏匿了黑钱的，每一个人从此将过上幸福的生活。现在童话故事完蛋了。

I had cautioned that none of the original three objectives set out in the government's letter of November 7, 2016, to the RBI and in the Prime Minister's speech the next day, was likely to be achieved. Fake currency has surfaced, terrorist activity has not abated and black money continues to be generated and used. The objectives were unexceptionable, the chosen instrument was wrong and useless.

我警告过，在2016年11月7日政府写给印度储备银行的信件以及第二天总理的演讲中所宣布的三个最初的目标，没有一个是有可能成功的。假钞已经公开，恐怖活动没有减少，黑钱继续产生和使用。目标是极好的，选择的手段却是错误的，无用的。

As the facts did not follow the original story, the story was changed repeatedly, and the propaganda engine was turned to full throttle. Bereft of even a shred of truth, the government's propaganda is now clearly in farcical territory. The situation is beyond Orwellian. Sample these gems from the latest press release:

由于事实没有按照最初的剧本发展，故事被再三更改，宣传机器全速启动。缺少哪怕一点点真相，现在政府的宣传无疑到了滑稽的地步。当前情形远超奥威尔式政府。下面从最新新闻中摘抄一些重点来找出真相：

Discovering Virtues

发掘优点

1) “The Government had expected all the SBNs (specified bank notes) to come back to the banking system to become effectively usable currency.”

1）“政府期望所有SBNs（指定钞票）回到银行系统，成为有效可用的货币。”

*  Were the old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes not effectively usable currency?

* 500和1000卢比旧钞票不是有效可用的货币吗？

2) “…the effective currency in circulation today is only 83% with full remonetisation having taken place.”

2）“…现今流通的有效货币只有83%是发生过完全再货币化的。”

* By printing less currency, an artificial shortage has been created. Many ATMs are not functional or dispense cash only for a few hours a day.

* 通过印刷更少的货币，人为制造了短缺。许多ATM无法运转，或者每天只有几个小时分发现金。

3) “The fact that bulk of SBNs have come back to the banking system shows that the banking system and the RBI were able to effectively respond to the challenge of collecting such a large number of SBNs in a limited time.”

3）“大部分指定钞票回到银行系统的事实表明，银行系统和RBI能够有效应对在有限时间内收集如此大量的指定钞票的挑战。”

* It is amusing that collecting cash is touted as an achievement. Next, counting the notes in nine months will be claimed as an achievement.

* 有趣的是，收集现金被当作成就来吹捧。接下来，在9个月内清点钞票将会被当作一项成就。

4) “Since November 2016 and until the end of May 2017, a total of Rs 17,526 crore has been found as undisclosed income and Rs 1,003 crore has been seized. The investigation/scrutiny is going on.”

4）“从2016年11月一直到2017年5月底，总共发现1752.6亿卢比不明收入，有100.3亿卢比被没收。调查/核查正在进行。”

* What was the undisclosed income and what will be the tax revenue can be determined only after assessment, adjudication and appeals. The government may lose many of these cases. The final number may be much smaller.

* 哪些是不明收入，以及哪些将作为税金收入，只有在评估，裁定和上诉之后才能决定。政府可能会输掉很多这些案子。最后数额可能会更小。

5) “The government has already identified more than 37,000 shell companies which were engaged in hiding black money and hawala transactions.”

5）“政府已经确定了超过37000家空壳公司，它们从事藏匿黑钱及哈瓦拉交易（地下汇款）。”

* The government can only allege these things. It is for the tax tribunals and courts to determine whether the allegations are true.

* 政府只能提出这些事情。决定这些主张真假的是税务裁判所和法院。

6) “The Income-Tax Directorates of Investigation have identified more than 400 benami transactions up to 23 May, 2017, and the market value of properties under attachment is more than Rs 600 crore.”

6）“直到2017年5月23日，所得税调查委员会确定了超过400起本阿米交易（隐名买卖），查封财产市值超过60亿卢比。”

* This is a pitifully small number, given the scale of disruption caused.

* 考虑到废钞所造成的崩溃规模，这是个小得可怜的数目。

7) “As a result of demonetisation of SBNs, terrorist and Naxalite financing stopped almost entirely.”

7）“废止指定钞票的结果是，恐怖分子和纳萨尔派分子的资金筹措几乎完全停止。”

* It would be nice to see some evidence of this. Data from Jammu & Kashmir showed a rise in the numbers of incidents and casualties.
The Home Minister said that 35 districts in seven states are affected by Naxalism.

* 如果能看一下证据那就好了。来自查谟喀什米尔的数据显示，事件和伤亡的数量在上升。
内政部长说，有七个邦的35个地区受到了纳萨尔派分子的侵袭。

8) “Digital payments have increased by 56%, from 71.27 crore transactions in October 2016 to 111.45 crore transaction till the end of May 2017.”

8）“电子支付增加了56%，从2016年10月的7.127亿卢比交易量上升到2017年5月底的11.145亿卢比。”

* There is an increase in the number of digital transactions but the total value of such transactions is at about the same level as it was in November 2016.

* 电子交易在数额上有所增加，但此类交易的总额与2016年11月的水平大致相同。

9) “The impressive revenue collection under the GST is also partially attributable to the demonetisation drive.”

9）“GST统一税制下的可观税收也部分地归因于废钞令的推动。”

* Pray tell us, how is indirect tax collection impacted by demonetisation?

* 请告诉我们，非直接相关的税收是怎么被废钞令影响的？

Catastrophic Blow

灾难性打击

10) “Some people had expected a very large shock to economic growth on account of demonetisation. Their expectations have been belied.”
* Is a deceleration of 3.1 per cent not a large enough shock? Under the UPA I, the GDP growth curve was between 8 and 9 per cent. Under the UPA II and the first two years of the NDA, the curve lay between 7 and 8 per cent. Since demonetisation, quarterly growth (and hence annual growth) has settled at between 6 and 7 per cent. The CSO numbers for Q1 of 2017-18 are worse: GDP 5.7%, GVA 5.6% and manufacturing GVA 1.2%. Is that not a catastrophic blow to the economy?

10）“有人期望废钞令带给经济增长很大的冲击。他们的期望已落空了。”
* 难道3.1%降速的冲击还不够大吗？在团结进步联盟(国大党一伙)第一任期，GDP增长曲线在8%至9%之间。在团结进步联盟第二任期和全国民主联盟(莫迪一伙)执政的头两年，曲线在7%至8%之间。自从废钞以来，季度增长（因此影响年度增长）停在6%到7%之间。2017-18财年第一季度的中央统计局数据更糟：GDP 5.7%，GVA 5.6%，制造业GDP 1.2%。这不是对经济的灾难性打击吗？

There are some who believe that power creates its own justification. The rest of us are interested in objectively understanding the impact of a policy and will support it only if it benefits the economy and the people.

有人认为权力可以自己创造公平。其余的我们想客观地了解政策的影响，而且只有在对经济和人们有利的时候才会支持它。

From demonetisation to polarisation (in UP), to chicanery (in Goa and Manipur) to child deaths (in UP and Jharkhand) to mob violence (in Haryana), we are being asked to tolerate incompetence. The NDA is practising a rare and extreme form of politics that will ultimately wreck both social harmony and the economy.

从废钞到对立（在乌塔尔-普拉得什邦），到欺骗（在果阿邦和曼尼普尔邦），到儿童死亡（在乌塔尔-普拉得什邦和贾坎德邦），再到聚众暴力（在哈里亚纳邦），我们一直被要求容忍这种无能。全国民主联盟正在实行一个罕见又极端的，最终会破坏社会和谐与经济的政治纲领。


RC Jayakumar
Sep 3, 2017 at 2:22 pm
As Mr.PC proves with data demonitisation is utter failure. When customers have to pay surcharge for credit card in many establishments, how people will resort to it whole-heartedly ATM is meant for any time use. Now also many ATMs are closed during holidays. We are in the first week of the month and holiday, many ATMs are closed. Why this sort of artificial scarcity for cash is created? Digitisation is for people's convenience. They can not enforce it. Where is the choice? BJP is claiming bold action from the PM. This is unwarranted. When the risks outweigh the benefit, no wise man will embark on it. This is only rashness without worrying consequences. We are still suffering for it. At least for the rest of his tenure, the PM should not go adventuriism. For world it is a case study for what should not be attempted.

正如PC先生用数据证明的，废钞是绝对的失败。当消费者不得不在众多商业设施中为信用卡支付附加税时，人们怎么会全心全意地常常用它呢？ATM应该是随时可用的。现在很多ATM在假期期间也是关闭的。我们处在这个月的第一个星期，而且是假期，很多ATM却关闭了。为什么要制造这种人为的现金短缺？电子化是为了方便人们的。他们不能强制执行。哪里有选择？人民党正在主张执行来自总理的大胆行动。这没有根据。危险比利益重要时，没有智者会去做。只有鲁莽轻率而不顾后果的人。我们仍然在遭受损害。至少在他剩下的任期，总理不该再冒险。对世界来说，这是个针对什么事不应该尝试的研究案例。

Jim
Sep 3, 2017 at 2:21 pm
When he was FM chidu did nothing much. Even his son is wanted in a corruption case. Now he is free to criticise with careless abandon

他是财政部长时也没有做多少事。甚至他儿子也在一个腐败案件里被通缉。现在他可以自由地无拘无束地批评了。

Raman Govindan
Sep 3, 2017 at 2:01 pm
he should know as he is better informed and well educated! it is not the Bank nationalization, other actions/decisions and "garibi hatao" slogans that that keeps India floating or slowly turning better! the governments right from Nehru era cared less about nation , literacy and but more about their holding on to power. The people struggle and give better education to their children all over India and try to make their life better. where better education is available, people are comparatively better. it continues till date!

他应该知道，因为他见多识广，教育良好！令印度漂浮摇摆或转好缓慢的不是银行国有化、其它行动/决定和"garibi hatao"口号！源自尼赫鲁时代的政府更少关心国家、识字率，相反更关心他们对权力的掌控。全印度人们努力奋斗，给他们的孩子更好的教育，并努力让他们生活得更好。可获得更好的教育的地方，人们相对地也更好。持续至今！

Real Man
Sep 3, 2017 at 2:41 pm
So you people dont use your brains blindly follow the path of Modi /BJP - i mean we are not fools to watch all the dramas done by the clown and their chamchas > dont close your eyes PC is telling the fact why should look at his flaws what is important to us we should talk - like the bird called Annam which sucks only the milk and keep away the water. If we keeping on following Modi's patch without any turning definitely oneday will come then we cannot remedy in the country- all will be looted by corporates and BJP who helped them and they dont have any mercy public or middle class - Just keep in mind and vote in 2019 otherrwise we all will be doomed. No job - No food total disaster for youths i mean the next geneation

所以你们这些人不动脑的，盲目跟从莫迪/人民党的路线。我是说我们不是傻瓜，不用看小丑和他们的马屁精演的戏。别闭眼，PC在讲述事实，为什么要盯着他的瑕疵。什么对我们重要就该说什么，就像那只叫做Annam的鸟，只喝牛奶不喝水。如果我们继续跟随莫迪的错误，不作任何转圜，那么总会有那么一天，那时我们将无法拯救国家。一切将会被企业和帮助它们的人民党洗劫，他们对公众或中产阶级不会有任何怜悯。切记，然后2019年投好票，否则我们都会被毁灭。没工作，没食物，对年轻人来说完全是灾难，我是说下一代。

Kamal Pasha
Sep 3, 2017 at 1:53 pm
Since Modi was CM of Gujrat for longtime and he new many of his gold and diamonds merchant friends have billions in black money. This demonitisation was done to help his friends to make their black money White. Did anybody saw any big shots in line outside banks? Modi is the biggest corrupt politician of India. The truth will come out very soon.

因为莫迪做过很长时间古吉拉特邦首席部长，他知道很多他的黄金和钻石商人朋友有数亿黑钱。这个废钞令是为了帮他的朋友洗白黑钱的。有人在银行外面的队伍里看到过任何大人物吗？莫迪是印度最大的腐败政客。真相很快会浮现的。

Manian
Sep 3, 2017 at 1:13 pm
You cannot expect anything better from this column.According to this gentleman,Sonia gandhi Rahul gandhi are the greatest existing world leaders.The most efficient,ablest finance minister in today's world is himself.

你不会从这个专栏期望到任何好事。按照这位先生的看法，索妮亚·甘地、拉胡尔·甘地是目前最伟大的世界领袖。

Xyz
Sep 3, 2017 at 1:03 pm
Demonitisation killed more Indian citizens than the militants in J K.

废钞令杀的印度人比死在查谟克什米尔的军人还多。

Anand
Sep 3, 2017 at 2:35 pm
WE SHALL RECOMMEND YOUR NAME FOR AWARD OF NOBEL PRIZE FOR THIS GREAT DISCOVERY!

我们应该就你的伟大发现推荐你拿诺贝尔奖。

Ashok
Sep 3, 2017 at 1:03 pm
Mr chidambaram writes nonsense he states that black money is back so is terrorist.One cannot put an end to all in one stroke.If he is interested in nation let him name the source from where black money is generated and also the source of terrorist instead of finding fault with the demonitisation.people are scared at least now to hide money and the business men are volunteering to be open with their accounts which is the truth but Mr chidambaram who himself is corrupt and also his son would only see the other way

chidambaram先生胡说八道，他说黑钱回流了，所以恐怖分子也是。一个人无法一击全中。如果他对国家有意，就把黑钱产生的来源，还有恐怖分子的来源说出来，而不是找废钞令的毛病。至少人们现在害怕藏钱了，商人也自愿开户了，这是真的，但是chidambaram先生自己也是腐败的，他的儿子也只会扭头无视。

Satish
Sep 3, 2017 at 12:58 pm
sir, we are ok with GDP of 1 but return all the looted money first before giving lecture on GDP

先生，1%的GDP我们也认可，但是在开讲GDP前，先把洗劫的钱还回来。