为啥我们要注意”中国制造“的全球经济衰退 [印度媒体]

Global GDP will likely contract by about 5 per cent this year, just the third time it has shrunk in nominal GDP terms since 1980. It's best hope now is for China to escape a deeper slowdown.

今年全球GDP增速大概会紧缩5％左右，这是自1980年第三次衰退。现在最好的指望就是中国能够抑制经济增长速度放缓。

Anyone forecasting a global recession is typically met with the same skepticism that doomed the boy who cried wolf. But the lesson from the fable is that the wolf did come, eventually. With the global economy now in its seventh year of a sluggish recovery, the odds of the wolf being near the door are high. In the past 50 years, a global recession has on average hit once every eight years and lasted for about a year. The next recession then may not be far away , but whether it will occur in 2016 is hard to call. However, with China's debt still growing twice as fast as its economy, the next global recession could well bear the label "Made in China".

任何预测全球经济衰退的人都会被别人质疑危言耸听（这里的危言耸听是意译，原文是“狼来了”的寓言故事）。然而寓言最后的结果是狼来了。现在全球经济处于缓慢复苏的第七个年头，经济危机发生的可能性很高。过去50年，每8年就会有一次经济危机，每次大概持续一年。下一次衰退也许不会太远，但是是否会发生在2016年还是个未知数。然而，中国因为它的经济速度，债务仍旧成长了两倍，下一次经济危机也许会贴上“中国制造的”的标签。

The world economy is currently growing at its weakest pace since it began recovering in 2009, with global GDP growth for 2015 estimated at 2.5 per cent in real terms. But measured in nominal dollar terms, global GDP will likely contract by about 5 per cent this year. This would be just the third time that the global economy has shrunk in nominal GDP terms since 1980.

自2009年以来，世界经济目前正以缓慢的速度增长，预估2015年全球gdp的增长会达到2.5％。但是以美元来计算，今年全球gdp缩减了5％。这是世界gdp自1980年来第三次衰退。



With China's debt still growing twice as fast as its economy, the next global recession could well bear the label 'Made in China'.

随着中国债务以其经济的两倍速度增长，下一个全球经济危机可能要打上”中国制造“的标签

The International Monetary Fund has used per capita income and a complex set of other factors to identify various global recessions: in the mid-1970s, the early 1980s, the early 1990s, and then during the global financial crisis of 2008 to 2009. In all those cases, global GDP growth in marketdetermined exchange rate terms fell below 2 per cent, compared to its long-term growth rate of 3.5 per cent. Global growth also dropped under 2 per cent when the US tech bubble burst in 2001. For practical purposes, then, it can be said that there have been five global recessions since 1970.

国际货币基金组织用人均收入和一套复杂的体系来确定全球衰退：上个世纪70年代中期，上个世纪90年代早期，以及2008-2009的经济危机，在所有这些时期，市场经济下的全球GDP较长期的增长率3.5％都下降到2％以下。在2001年美国经济泡沫破灭的的时候，全球增长率同样降到2％以下。实际上，我们可以说自1970年以来有五次全球经济危机。

For most of that period, the United States was the premier economy in the world, and its gyrations always had global ramifications. Much has changed, however, since the global fi nancial crisis of 2008. For the first time in recent history, an economy other than the US has emerged as the largest contributor to global growth, with China accounting for a third of the world's growth, compared to a 17 per cent con tribution by the US. This is an exact role reversal by the two economies from the preceding decade. The contribution from the other giant economies, Europe and Japan, has fallen to less than 10 per cent.The key to global growth is now in Beijing's hands.

那段时期大部分时候，美国都是全球经济的领头羊，而且它的经济波动对全球都有影响。然而自2008年的金融危机以来，很多情况都改变了。最近一段时间，中国取代美国已经成为全球经济的最大贡献者，他的经济增长占据了全球的三分之一，而美国仅仅占了17％。这说明过去十年，这两个经济体做了角色转换。欧洲和日本对全球经济的贡献已经下降到10％不到。全球经济的钥匙如今握在北京手中。

The problem is that China's recent economic rise has been facilitated by a massive and unsustainable stimulus campaign. No emerging nation has ever tacked on debt at such a furious pace as China has done since 2008, and a rapid increase in debt is the single most reliable predictor of future economic slowdowns and financial crises. Policymakers in Beijing have been trying to sustain an unrealistic and randomly selected growth target of 7 per cent by steering cheap loans into one bubble after another -first housing, and most recently the stock market -only to see each bubble collapse. While China reported that its GDP grew exactly in line with its growth target of 7 per cent in the first three quarters of this year, all other independently-collated data -from electricity production to car sales -indicate that economy activity is increasing at a pace closer to 5 per cent.

问题是中国的经济增长是被一个巨大而不可持续的经济刺激政策促成的。没有一个发展中国家会像中国在2008年那样，以飞快地速度增加债务，可预见的是，在未来的经济危机和衰退中，中国的债务还会以极快的速度上涨。北京的政策决策者一直通过廉价贷款不断制造泡沫，来努力维持一个不现实的，随便的增长目标-7％，同时最近的股灾只能说明泡沫的破灭。然而中国却说今年前三个季度，经济增长达到7％的目标线，然而其他所有独立的数据从电力生产到汽车销售，都表明中国实际的增速更接近5％。

The China slowdown is hitting countries in the developing world the hardest. China is now the top export market for more than 40 developing countries, and that number is up fourfold since 2004. Although barely 5 per cent of India's exports head to the dragon nation, the slump in global trade partly induced by China's travails is hurting the Indian economy as well. When India's economy was growing at 8 to 9 per cent during the boom years of the last decade, its exports were surging at an annual pace of 25 per cent. No economy has sustained an expansion of 8 per cent without a major contribution from export growth. With India's exports estimated to have fallen by 5 per cent in 2015, little wonder its economy is most likely currently expanding at a 5 to 6 per cent pace (as opposed to the 7 to 8 per cent growth claimed by the dubious official data).

中国的经济放缓伤害最大的是发展中国家。中国现在已经是40个发展中国家的头号出口市场，这个数据是2004年的四倍。然而印度对”龙之国“的出口只有5％，中国对印度经济的伤害是引起全球经济低迷的原因之一。在过去十年，印度以8％-9％的经济增长，它的出口以每年25％的速度飙升。每个增速为8％的国家，它的出口都会对经济做出巨大贡献。而2015年印度的专家预测今年增速下降了，只有5％。难怪它的目前经济的增速只有5％到6％（而不是官方可疑的7％到8％。）

Outside of China, overall growth in the emerging world fell below 2 per cent in 2015, implying that for the first time since the crises of the late 1990s and early 2000s, developing countries are expanding at a pace slower than the developed world. The global economy's best hope now is for China to escape a deeper slowdown, and for some other major growth engine to get into high gear. While the US is relatively resilient, it still needs to do much better than grow at the current pace of 2 per cent to counteract the slowdown in China. But that seems unlikely given its declining productivity and growth of its labour force. Europe and Japan are showing some signs of economic stabilization, but their growth rates are still too meagre to prevent a further slide in global growth, which in turn would have serious implications for all markets.

除了中国，发展中国家总体的增长跌破2％，这意味着自上个世纪90年代和本世纪初以来，发展中国家的增速首次低于发达国家。现在全球经济最大指望就是中国能够从更深层次的经济衰退中逃脱，成为另一个（世界经济）的主要引擎高速运转。美国虽然稍微恢复了点，但是仍需要比目前2％的增速做得更好，来抵消中国的衰弱。但鉴于其生产力的下降和劳动力成本的上升，这似乎不太可能。欧洲和日本倒是有经济稳定的现象，但是他们的增长对抑制全球经济的进一步下滑没有任何帮助，反而对所有市场都有严重影响。

As 2015 draws to a close, the global economy is exhibiting few signs to suggest it is breaking out of a rut, with growth still stuck at around 2.5 per cent. With global recession defined as a growth rate of below 2 per cent, the world is just one shock away from drifting into recessionary territory. Another one or two-percentage point drop in debt-laden China's growth rate could well deliver that jolt.

随着2015年接近尾声，全球经济几乎没有迹象表示它会改弦更张，经济增长仍然维持在2.5％左右。随着世界经济危机定义为低于2％的增长率，世界似乎远离滑向经济衰退。然而负债累累的中国增速有一到两个百分点的降低很可能对世界经济带来震撼。