quora: 至2050年，印度经济能超过中国经济吗？

Can India Surpass China's economy by 2050?

至2050年印度经济能超过中国的吗？

quora评论翻译：

来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/45748.html  译者：天一生水

Sthitapragnya Deshpande

Can it?

可以吗？

Yes - if it adopts strategies similar to what China did in the 1980s.

是的-如果它采取与中国80年代类似的策略。

Will it?

If it continues at the current rate, no.

会吗？

如果按当前的速度来说，不会。

India is nowhere close to what China is (as of 2017), or was even in the 1990s! I had first visited China in the mid 90s, and visited India recently (I have been visiting India every year). We are still not there - even in our big cities like Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore. Only small pockets of these cities develop, but the major parts of these cities have become worse than before (and they were already bad!)

印度远不及中国（截至2017年），甚至只是中国在20世纪90年代的水平！我是在90年代中期首次访问中国，最近访问了印度（我每年都访问印度）。我们仍然不到那个水平 - 即使是我们的大城市，如孟买，德里和班加罗尔。这些城市只有一些小发展，但这些城市的主要部分已经变得比以前更糟（他们已经很糟糕！）

And no - simply sending a few cheap satellites does not bring development. We still do not have toilets, tapped clean drinking water, and 24 hrs electricity in most towns and cities of our country! (For Indians unaware of this reality - do see a few of Ravish's reports in NDTV - Bharat ki sachchai aapko saaf nazar aayegi / yaad aayegi)

只是发送一些廉价的卫星不会带来发展。在我们国家的大多数城镇，我们仍然没有厕所，干净的自来水和24小时的电力！ （对于没有意识到这一现实的印度人 – 可以在NDTV中看到一些Ravish的报道 - Bharat ki sachchai aapko saaf nazar aayegi / yaad aayegi）

India has all the potential and resources to get there, it has all the people to get there, unfortunately it has all the wrong people in governance - and the latter will prevent the former two from achieving anything.

印度拥有实现这一目标的所有潜力和资源，它的人民希望达到这样的目标，不幸的是，它的政服里都是些不同路的人- 后者将阻止前两者实现任何目标。

There is only one big difference between China and India.

中国和印度之间只有一个很大的不同。

China has a good populace with First class governance that enables its people to achieve their full potential.

中国拥有良好的人民群众，拥有一流的政服治理，使其人民能够充分发挥其潜力。

India has a good populace with Third class governance which ensure that its people never reach their full potential.

印度拥有良好的民众，拥有三流的治理水平，确保其人民永远不会充分发挥其潜力。

Everything else is just cosmetic.

其他一切都只是装饰。

(Note: I have paraphrased Arvind Kejriwal in the 3rd class analogy)

（注意：我在第三类类比中对尔文德·科基瓦尔进行了解释）

 

Vardhaman Sakhlecha

Answered Jan 16, 2017

No. Economic growth is usually measured in terms of Gross Domestic Product. (GDP)

不会。经济增长通常以国内生产总值来衡量。 （国内生产总值）

India’s nominal GDP is about $2.3 Trillion (2016) and China’s nominal GDP is about $11.4 Trillion (2016).

印度GDP约为2.3万亿美元（2016年），中国GDP约为11.4万亿美元（2016年）。

There are varying forecast about India and China’s growth rate. So lets assume the best case scenario for India at 7% p.a. and an moderate growth scenario for China at 4%

对印度和中国的增长率有不同的预测。因此，让我们假设印度最佳情况为7％。中国经济适度增长4％

Assuming India grows at 7% p.a. till 2050, its GDP would at best touch $23 Trillion. China, if it grows at 4% p.a., would be able to touch a GDP $43 Trillion by 2050.

假设印度的增长率为7％。直到2050年，其国内生产总值最多将达到23万亿美元。中国如果能够以每年4％的速度增长，到2050年将达到43万亿美元的GDP。

So, no India will not surpass Chinese economy by 2050 unless something extraordinary takes place more than ordinary number of times in the next few decades.

因此，除非在未来几十年内发生超常规的事情，否则印度到2050年不会超过中国经济。

China was able to take advantage of globalization when manufacturing shifted from west to the east but this advantage doesn’t remain with the rise of protectionism. India would have to work at finding alternate growth models.

当制造业从西方向东方转移时，中国能够利用全球化，但这种优势并不随着保护主义的兴起而存在。印度必须努力寻找替代的增长模式。

 

Ray Comeau

A2A邀答

I have never seen a GDP forecast for 2050 where India exceeds China in nominal terms.

我从未见过预测说2050年印度的GDP超过了中国。

According to World Bank 2015 the ration was 11:2 (or 18%). Forecasters say the ratio should improve over time in 2020 to 16.5:3.3 (or 20%) to 2050 78:22 (or 28%).

根据2015年世界银行的配给量是11：2（或18％），预测人员称该比率应在2020年逐步提高至16.5：3.3（或20％）至2050年78:22（或28％）。

If China were to stop growing today (0% growth), forecaster predict it would still take two decades to 2039 for India to catch up to China.

如果中国今天停止增长（增长0％），那么预测人员预测，印度要赶上中国还需要20年到2039年。

Forecasters are never accurate so far out in the future. So India could do better or worse; it all depends on India and its ability to grow consistently at a high rate.

现在对将来的预测不可能太准确。所以印度可能做得更好或更糟;这一切都取决于印度及其以高速率持续增长的能力。

IMO - having a goal to surpass China’s economy (or anyone else) is the wrong goal. India has to be India. It would be better to know what is important and unique about India and to focus on making the best India possible.

国际货币组织 - 超越中国经济（或任何其他国家）是错误的目标。印度必须是印度。最好知道什么是重要的和印度的独特多处，并专注于把印度最好的地方尽可能扩大。

 

Rick Li

India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world, growing at about 7.6% in 2015 (Here), while economic growth in China is slowing down and growing at 6.9% (Here).

印度是世界上增长最快的经济体之一，2015年增长率约为7.6％（点这里），而中国经济增长放缓且增长率为6.9％（点这里）。

Assuming that India grows steadily at 7.6%, it will take about 23 years for its $2.1 trillion in 2015 to reach $11.3 trillion, exceeding slightly the 2015 GDP of China of $11 trillion (Here). Rick Li's answer to Will India ever become the largest economy in the world?

假设印度稳步增长7.6％，2015年是2.1万亿美元，需要23年才能达到11.3万亿美元，略高于中国2015年GDP 11亿美元的（点这里）。 Rick Li对印度曾经是世界最大的经济体的回答。

Anyway, according to the PwC report ‘The World in 2050’, while the Indian economy is estimated to exceed the American economy by 2050, it will be the second biggest economy behind China. I’ve also answered another question about China - Rick Li's answer to Is China very poor? Refer to the chart below.

无论如何，根据普华永道的报告“2050年的世界”，虽然印度经济估计到2050年将超过美国经济，它将成为仅次于中国的第二大经济体。我还回答了另一个关于中国的问题 - Rick Li回答：『中国很穷吗？』请参阅下表。

 

Anonymous

main problem in india is overpopulation & inefficient goverment sector.

印度的主要问题是人口过剩和政服部门效率低下。

nobody talks about it.many jobs have been created over last 50 years.

没有人谈论它。过去50年来创造了许多工作岗位。

but population explosion has neutralised all efforts.remember population explosion is worse than nuclear explosion. government should implement one child policy. jobs andsalary will continue to decrease due to oversupply of labour & automation.

但是人口的暴长抵消了所有的努力。它比核爆炸还糟糕。政服应该实施一孩政策。由于劳动力和自动化，工资会持续下降。

removing permanent job cultule from goverment sector will increase growth

rate by 4-5%.

取消政服部门的铁饭碗会带来4-5%的增长。

china & usa are almost thrice in size compared to india & their population is almost 130 & 30 crores respectively.

在规模上，中国和美国是印度的三倍，它们的人口分别是13亿和3亿。

for every post there are almost 500 candidates & therefore indians are paid minimum salary.每个告示都会有500个申请人，因此印度人获得最低的报酬。

you can't negotiate as others are willing to work for anything. best option is to settle abroad. i am also trying for same.

当别人愿意做任何事时，你没办法讨价还价。最好就是定居海外。我也在为同样的事奋斗。

Population is biggest factor in almost all problems like poverty,inflation etc.

till the time population keeps on increasing, employers can easily afford to

treat us like objects .it's our mistake.salary will keep on decreasing.

try for foreign countries & settle there before they close their doors.

peace.

人口几乎是所有问题比如贫困，通货膨胀等中最大的问题。直到人口不断增长，雇主很容易把人当物品。这是我们的错误。工资不断下降。试着出国，尽早在那定居。

和平。

 

Noel Leong

Answered Jan 16, 2017 · Author has 1k answers and 311k answer views

As it is, it’s already difficult for India to catch-up. If China Belt-Road expansion is successful and bears fruit sooner than expected, it will be almost impossible for India to surpass China.

事实上，印度已经很难赶上。如果中国一带一路成功并且比预期更早结果，印度几乎不可能超越中国。

 

Chandra Bindu

Answered Jan 16, 2017 · Author has 242 answers and 350.4k answer views

year 2050 is way too far . no one can accurately predict how the economic order will be in year 2050.

With child like logic and very simplistic view, India GDP growth is not enough to surpass china in next 10 years.

2050年太远了。没有人能准确预测2050年的经济秩序。

很容易就能看出来，印度的GDP增长不足以在未来10年超越中国。

 

Afiq Aziz

Answered Jan 16, 2017 · Author has 445 answers and 243.5k answer views

I dont think so. I think the cheap labor model is really going to end. With the recent Brexit, Trump election, and the upcoming French election with a possibility of Marine Le Pen winning the election. It seems like to me that the world is moving towards market protectionism. If India wants their economy to grow. It has to change its policies. I would suggest for them to drop the whole “Made in India” model, and to focus more towards domestic demand economy. Of course, other reform such as corruption, infrastructure spending, etc has to go through as well.

我不这么认为。我认为廉价的劳动模式真的会结束。随着最近英国脱欧，特朗普大选以及即将举行的法国大选-马琳勒庞有可能赢得大选。在我看来，世界正在走向市场保护主义。如果印度希望经济增长。它必须改变其政策。我建议他们放弃整个“印度制造”模式，更多地关注国内需求。当然，腐败，基础设施支出等其他改革也必须经历。