quora: 印度经济能否赶上中国经济？

Will India's economy catch up to China's

印度经济能否赶上中国？

 

Quora评论翻译：

Ray Comeau, A decade in China, interest in geopolitics

A2A

Maybe. It will depend on (1) how long can India’s GDP rate of growth exceed China’s rate of growth and (2) the absence of a catastrophe to either India or China.

A number of organizations has projected national GDPs up to 2050. Here are two - by IMF and The Economist. This is a long time frame for predicting. So what they predict for 34 years from now based on their analysis is China will economically still be larger then India whether measured by PPP or Market Exchange Rate

也许吧。这将取决于：(1)印度的GDP增长率能在多长时间内超过中国，以及(2)印度或中国都没有发生灾难。

一些组织可预测至2050年的GDP。这是一个时间跨度很长的预测。根据他们的分析，他们预测从现在开始的34年里，无论以购买力平价还是以市场汇率来衡量，中国的经济规模仍将大于印度。

 

Ming Lou, Author Seeking Answers 12th edition

Long shot, man.

With the uncontrollable population growth chasing behind their economy, they can never accumulate the capital to industrialise their economy.

And due to Indian economy doesn’t have an integrated industrial system, it have to import the much needed manufactured products by selling their resources and food to get the money for these imports. That pushes the resources and necessities domestic market price up and further drain the domestic buying capacity that restricts its domestic market for its own manufactured products.

And add on this bad situation, the human resources is not suitable for industrialisation purpose --- lack of stamina, discipline and strictness of accuracy.

It is a vicious cycle, a runaway positive feedback loop that lead to disaster and worse disaster.

In short, India’s bad real value – population ratio combined with the badly regulated semi-anarchic capitalist system, etc. It is a big pile of mess, a classic recipe for economic disaster that only God himself can sort it out.

太渺茫了，伙计。

由于无法控制的人口增长，他们永远无法积累资本实现经济工业化。

由于印度经济没有一个完整的工业体系，它不得不进口急需的制造业产品，通过出售资源和食品来来获得购买进口产品的资金。这就推高了国内资源和必需品的价格，进一步耗尽国内购买能力，限制了国内市场对本国制造产品的需求。。

再加上这种糟糕的情况，人力资源不适合实现工业化——缺乏毅力、严格的纪律和准确性。

这是一个恶性循环，一个失控的循环，将会导致越来越严重的灾难。

简言之，印度现状很糟糕，人口比率，加上监管不力的半无政府资本主义制度等等。这是一堆烂摊子，是经济灾难的一种经典配方，只有上帝自己才能解决这个烂摊子。

 

来源：三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/45809.html     译者：Jessica.Wu

外文：https://www.quora.com/Will-Indias-economy-catch-up-to-Chinas

 

Anonymous

Given the lack of investment in health, education and perpetuation of social backwardness in casteism and a new hardline government promoting ethnic and religious tensions…I would say no.

On the other hand, China itself is playing smoke and mirrors, mostly bribing the population of its new middle classes with money and promises of advancement. When that bribe runs out, who knows what will happen

考虑到在医疗、教育方面的投资不足和种姓制度导致社会落后的延续，以及新一届强硬政府加剧了种族和宗教紧张关系，我认为印度赶不上中国。

另一方面，中国也在混淆视听，主要是用金钱和晋升承诺贿赂其新兴中产阶级。当贿赂用尽时，有谁知道会发生什么？

 

Walcott

When Indian Modi can no longer manipluate the GDP data, and Indian people start the freedom of speech to tell truth, instead of lying, Indian GDP will slip and GDP/head will remain on the bottom of the world for next 100 years.

当莫迪不能再操纵GDP数据，印度人民开始言论自由说出真相时，印度的GDP将下滑，在未来的100年里，印度的GDP和人均GDP将处于世界最低水平。

 

Muhammad Iqbal, MBA Military History and Wars , Pakistan (2003)

Never as the residents of sub-continent are born with a mind set of never good captains lacking team spirit.

作为次大陆的居民，他们生来就缺乏团队精神，而且没有优秀的领导人。

 

Gurneet Singh, PGP from IIM Kozhikode Batch 2018-20

In the first decade of this century, India’s growth reached a take off stage that prompted many people to ask when India would catch up with its neighbour. It was also thought that democratic India may even overtake China.

本世纪头10年，印度的增长达到了一个起飞阶段，这促使许多人会问，印度什么时候才能赶上邻国？甚至还认为敏煮的印度可能超过中国。

Well, the most important point to drive home is:

In India’s noisy political democracy, the problems are compounded by the existence of multiple political parties with no coherent approach to development.

想让大家明白的最重要的一点是:

在印度嘈杂的政治敏煮中，由于存在多个政党，而且没有一致连贯的发展方式，使得这些问题更加复杂。

Whereas China has outrun India in every area of economic endeavour in the last 35 years, except in computer software industry and agricultural research.

然而，在过去35年里，除了计算机软件产业和农业研究领域，中国在经济发展的各个领域都超过了印度。

India will most probably overtake China as the most populous country in the world in 2030. China is better placed structurally than India for a good economic performance, but it is most likely to be much lower than its recent average performance of about 10 per cent a year. How much lower it would be would depend on its ability to maintain current labour productivity levels and the benefits likely to flow from its proposed trans-continental rail system and other transport-related activities. Troubles in China’s financial markets, a declining young and increasing older population as a proportion of the working age population, increasing wages in general and export industries in particular, costs associated with cleaning up serious environmental pollution, increasing competition from other countries in export industries using low-skill and semi-skill labour, lower savings rate and a possibly lower investment rate will have a negative effect on its growth.

到2030年，印度极有可能超过中国，成为世界上人口最多的国家。中国在经济结构上比印度更好，因而经济表现更好，但其经济增长很可能会远低于近年的平均表现，大概低10%左右每年，具体降低多少将取决于其维持目前劳动生产率水平的能力，以及从它提议的跨大陆铁路系统和其他与运输有关活动可能带来的效益。中国金融市场存在问题，年轻人口占劳动年龄人口的比例下降，而年长人口占劳动年龄人口的比例增加，工资增长特别是在出口行业，治理严重环境污染成本的增加，出口行业的竞争日益加剧，使用低技能和半熟练劳动力，低储蓄率和低投资率可能会对经济增长有负面影响。

India has an excellent chance of catching up with China if it can increase its labour force participation rate (particularly women), increase the average level of education, improve the quality of its labour force through special training programmes, reduce impediments to let foreign capital participate in its development process, design policies to cultivate a culture of entrepreneurship, and reduce corruption at all levels.

如果印度能够提高劳动力参与率(尤其是女性)，提高平均教育水平，通过特殊培训项目提高劳动力素质，减少外资参与印度发展进程的障碍，制定政策培养创业文化，并减少各级腐败，那么印度就极有可能赶上中国。

The problem in India has always been implementation. In a noisy political democracy, problems are compounded by the existence of multiple political parties with no coherent approach to development.

印度的问题一直都在于实施方面。在一个嘈杂的政治敏煮制度中，由于存在多个政党，而且没有一致连贯的发展方式，使得这些问题更加复杂。

Prime Minister Modi, with his majority in Parliament, has an opportunity to reignite the engines of economic growth. Even if the Indian economy were to grow at 10 per cent a year, its GDP at 2011 PPP$ will reach only about 26 trillion in 2030; China can easily reach this by 2022. I don’t see India catching up with China in the next 25 years unless, of course, there is a massive failure of sorts in China.

在议会占多数席位的莫迪总理有机会重新点燃经济增长的引擎。即使印度经济以每年10%的速度增长，按2011年购买力平价计算，到2030年，印度GDP将仅达到约26万亿美元，而中国到2022年就很容易实现这一目标。