quora网友: 为什么大多数经济学家相信印度会在将来超越中国？

Why do most economists believe that India will surpass China in the future?

为什么大多数经济学家相信印度会在将来超越中国？

QUORA网站读者评论：

来源：三泰虎    http://www.santaihu.com/45956.html       译者：Joyceliu

外文链接：https://www.quora.com/Why-do-most-economists-believe-that-India-will-surpass-China-in-the-future

Gunjan Das, What would you like to know?

I think. They ("most economist") have invented some device that will streamline the flow of black money from swiss bank accounts directly to Indian banks. And unfortunately that device will be marked as "made in China", this might be the relation.

我认为，他们(“大多数经济学家”)发明了某种装置，可以使从瑞士银行账户直接流向印度银行的黑钱流动变得更加顺畅。不幸的是，这个设备将贴着“中国制造”的标签，这可能就是关系。

 

Stephen Marydas, works at The Hindu

Most Economist? I don't think so. Somewhere in the future maybe. Not in near future. India has a very young population compared to many economic giants. That's a good thing. But still a lot to catch up....

大多数经济学家?我不这么想。也许在未来的某个时候。在不久的将来。与许多经济大国相比，印度的人口非常年轻。这是一件好事。但是仍然有很大的进步空间....

 

Sandeep Uppuluri, lived in India

Maybe in population, but we won't surpass china economically. Not in our life time.

也许在人口方面会，但我们在经济上不会超过中国。在我们的有生之年是不可能的。

 

Terin Rajan, Voice of Free India

Nobody believes this nonsense.

没有人相信这种无稽之谈。

 

Raj Iyre-Chatterjee, Democrazy at its finest!

Predicting thebfuture is a joke. We’d need to change our culture ENORMOUSLY to become a wealthy AND happy nation. Individualism and enterprise NEEDS to rise!

预测未来是个笑话。我们需要极大地改变我们的文化，才能成为一个富有和幸福的国家。个人主义和企业需要崛起!

 

Sushma Gutta

I do not think so. China will remain the number 1 economy. China is a manufacturing giant. And there is very less scope for India to replicate that due to various factors.

我不这么认为。中国仍将是世界第一大经济体。中国是制造业巨头。由于各种因素，印度复制这一模式的空间非常小。

 

Aditi Verma

There are hardly economists who believed this. India requires a lot of improvement to surpass China in the future.

几乎没有经济学家相信这一点。要想在未来超越中国，印度需要做很多改进。

 

Anonymous

Generally speaking, the argument is based on China’s demographic trap. It’s simply not possible for a baby boom of any size in China to alter the rapid aging — and even numerical decline — of its population; even a massive baby boom would simply slow the process.

Regardless, as the frequency of advancements in and real-world application of automation and machine learning dramatically increases, the rising view is that out-sized populations may become not only less and less relevant to national economic power — they may even become a liability.

If so, the United States may be poised to retain its position at the front of the economic order rather than becoming one of three global leaders. America’s primary challenges remain in the realms of the fiscal and military.

总的来说，这个论点是基于中国的人口陷阱。在中国，任何规模的婴儿潮都不可能改变人口的迅速老龄化——甚至会出现人口数量的下降；即使是大规模的婴儿潮也会减缓这一进程。

无论如何，随着自动化和机器学习在现实世界的应用的频率显著增加，越来越多的人认为，人口规模过大不仅会越来越少地与国家经济实力相关，甚至可能成为一种负担。

如果是这样，美国可能会保持其在经济秩序前沿的地位，而不是成为全球三大领导人之一。美国面临的主要挑战仍然是财政和军事领域。

 

Nitin Bhamvani, Born an Indian

Their main arguments are related to India's more youthful population and the fact that, as a democracy, it has already been established for over 67 years.

Nothing is guaranteed, however, and India still has a mountain to climb before anyone will accept it as the 'real deal'.

他们的主要论点与印度更年轻的人口以及印度作为一个敏煮国家已经建立超过67年的事实有关。

然而，没有什么是一定的，在任何人接受这一“事实”之前，印度还有一座大山要翻越。

 

Deepak S Fernandes, works at Infosys

My opinion is that predicting the future beyond 15 to 20 years is no better than a random guess.

India may surpass China only in terms of population in the next 20 years.

India is expanding fast economically, but China is not standing still — even if China does stop growing, it still has a tremendous lead. So both in terms of GDP and GDP per capita, India will not surpass China in the next 20 years.

Militarily I would argue they are close to being on par (though that could be Indian chauvanism on my part)

Soft power - China leads in this respect, but India is trying to catch up and may

我的观点是，预测未来超过15到20年的事并不比随机猜测好多少。

在未来20年里，印度的人口可能只会超过中国。

印度经济正在快速扩张，但中国并没有停滞不前——即使中国确实停止了增长，它仍有巨大的领先优势。因此，无论从GDP还是人均GDP来看，印度都不会在未来20年超过中国。

在军事上，我认为他们接近于平等(尽管我认为这可能是印度沙文主义)

软实力——中国在这方面领先，但印度正试图迎头赶上

 

Amit Sharma, Telling what I know by self or others experinece.

On the heels of China posting its lowest GDP growth rate in almost 25 years, the International Monetary Fund released an update to its World Economic Outlook report predicting that India’s economy will overtake China in terms of its annual growth rate by 2016. The IMF released estimates predict that India’s economy will grow at 6.3 and 6.5 percent respectively over the next two years. This puts India’s projected growth in 2016 ahead of the organization’s estimates for China (which stand at 6.8 and 6.3 percent for 2015 and 2016, respectively), leaving India the fastest growing major emerging economy in the world. The IMF’s projections represent a substantial increase from the actual growth rates of the Indian economy in 2013 and 2014, when the economy grew by 5 and 5.8 percent respectively. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects global economic growth at 3.5 and 3.7 percent in 2015 and 2016 respectively.

在中国公布了近25年来最低的GDP增速之后，国际货币基金组织发布了最新的《世界经济展望》报告，预测到2016年，印度经济的年增长率将超过中国。国际货币基金组织公布的估计数字预计，印度经济在未来两年内将分别增长6.3%和6.5%。这使得印度在2016年的增长预期超过了该组织对中国的估计(2015年和2016年分别为6.8%和6.3%)，使印度成为世界上增长最快的主要新兴经济体。国际货币基金组织的预测显示，印度经济在2013年和2014年的实际增长率大幅上升，当时印度经济分别增长了5%和5.8%。国际货币基金组织的《世界经济展望》预测，2015年和2016年全球经济增长率分别为3.5%和3.7%。

 

Mathew Cherian, I watch China as they drive the World Economy

I am not sure why this should be an issue among anyone let alone economists. Ultimate goal of econo.ics is to eradicate all dark forces, which include greed. Competition beyond ones need is greed. Then why should economists of all the people worry about India competing with China in this regard. Confusian China and Vedic India the yester world has more wisdom than just think of wasting their valuable times downgrading coherence. Unless J.M. Keynes was wrong in fixing the final state of every economic endeavour nations undertake as their ethical route to exist.

我不知道为什么这应该成为任何人的问题，更不用说经济学家了。经济的终极目标是旨在根除包括贪婪在内的所有黑暗势力。超越个人需要的竞争是贪婪。那么，为什么所有国家的经济学家都要担心印度在这方面与中国竞争。除非凯恩斯在修正每一个经济努力的最终状态时是错的，否则各国都将其作为生存的道德之路。

 

Swagatam Basu, lives in India

No matter what economists say, one has to be a realist and form his/her own opinion about predictive statements.

It is true that China and India are two of the fastest growing economies in the world. But what we should ask first is what do you mean by surpassing China? Is one purely talking about GDP of India or perhaps military might or dominance in the region as well as across the world.

What is probably the most widely accepted indicator of country and citizen wealth is the per capita GDP.

无论经济学家怎么说，每个人都必须是现实主义者，并形成自己对预测性陈述的看法。

的确，中国和印度是世界上增长最快的两个经济体。但我们首先要问的是，你说的超越中国是什么意思?是在说印度的GDP，或许是军事实力，或者是在该地区乃至世界的主导地位。

人均GDP可能是衡量国家和公民财富最广泛接受的指标。

Let's take a look at the per capita GDP of a few countries:

As you can clearly see, China's per capita GDP is 4.5 times that of India. So clearly India is definitely a long way behind.

让我们看看一些国家的人均国内生产总值:

中国的人均GDP是印度的4.5倍。所以很明显，印度肯定远远落后。

Going by these facts it is highly unlikely that India will surpass China anytime in the near future.

Of course I must say that these opinions are my own and I have not taken into consideration probable macroeconomic developments in the world. The greatest hindrance to India's development in the future is probably going to be the uncontrollable increase in her population.

The country is not growing as fast as it needs to sustain its population.

从这些事实来看，印度在不久的将来不太可能超越中国。

当然，我必须说，这些意见是我自己的，我没有考虑到世界上可能出现的宏观经济发展。印度未来发展的最大障碍可能是其人口不可控制的增长。

这个国家的发展速度还未达到维持其人口的需要。

 

Gary Sands, Lived in Shanghai 2006-2012, lives in Vietnam, written several articles on China

Maybe because India has more potential to grow given a low infrastructure base when compared to China’s vast number of airports, ports, subways, roads and highways. If India was successful in building airports, ports, subways, roads and highways, its GDP growth could surpass China’s GDP as infrastructure spending directly contributes to GDP and also helps other sectors grow like manufacturing for export.

也许是因为印度的基础设施较中国的机场、港口、地铁、公路和高速公路基础设施薄弱，因此印度有更大的增长潜力。如果印度在建设机场、港口、地铁、公路和高速公路方面取得成功，其国内生产总值增速可能会超过中国，因为基础设施支出直接贡献了GDP，同时也帮助其它行业增长，比如出口制造业。

 

Dimitar-Esperanto Berberu, Data Specialist at Berberu Alanytics (2001-present)

Surpass in what?

Economy is not GDP. By GDP PPP China has surpassed USa and will surpass it in nominal GDP.

在哪方面超越?

经济不仅仅是国内生产总值。按GDP购买力平价计算，中国已经超过美国，名义GDP也将超过美国。

 

Indians don’t even understand each other by using bad English instead of developing own standard language (like the Arab countries).

India used to be more powerful before the colonisation. It’s not united like China.

China used to be a big power and now coming back with clear socialist policies/principles, and uniting with Russia/Brazil…

印度人甚至不能通过蹩脚的英语而不是发展自己的标准语言(比如阿拉伯国家)来理解对方。

在殖民统治之前，印度曾经更加强大。但它不像中国那样团结。

中国曾经是一个大国，现在带着明确的社会主义政策/原则回来了，和俄罗斯/巴西团结在一起……

The world is changing quickly, & China is getting more confident with the HUMAN CAPITAL, while the economist are confusing themselves with GPD (outdated measure used during WW2 for producing weapons productivity). By 2030 they plan to lead research & AI.

Soon we have to learn Chinese - or better, I believe that the world will need to adopt Esperanto as neutral communication CLEAR language.

China is the most active in the world with Esperanto Commerce centre.

世界瞬息万变，中国对人力资本越来越有信心，而《经济学人》却对GPD(二战期间用于生产武器生产力的过时指标)感到困惑。到2030年，他们计划领导研究和人工智能。

很快我们就要学习中文了——或者更好，我相信世界将需要采用世界语作为中立的明确的交流语言。

中国是世界上最活跃的世界语贸易中心。

 

T.A. Aadithya, works at Students

Population.

The one major factor. India adds about 20 million people an year to its population. China adds about 6 million every year owing to its one child policy. So by 2023 India is poised to become the most populated country in the world. By 2050 , there will be 1.6 billion Indians, while China's population will shrink. The more the people, the more GDP is generated assuming the Indian govt pulls it's shit together. Although still poor by world standard , India's sheer population makes it the third largest economy by purchasing power.

人口。

一个主要的因素。印度每年新增人口约2000万。由于实行独生子女政策，中国每年新增人口约600万。因此，到2023年，印度将成为世界上人口最多的国家。到2050年，印度人口将达到16亿，而中国的人口将会减少。人口越多，GDP就会越高。尽管按世界标准来看仍很贫穷，但印度的绝对人口使其成为按购买力计算的第三大经济体。

Demographics.

The other factor . India has a young population. The average Chinese is a decade older than the average indian . So there is an excess 100 to 200 million more people in China's workface than India. Most of India's youth are still studying or just started their careers to make a noticeable impact in the GDP. Also China's women are more involved in the professional world than India. Indeed there is a lot of untapped talent of millions of Indian women that if used properly can transform India to an economic powerhouse and can double per capita incomes. A lot of Indian women sacrifice their careers for family and husbands and this contributes nothing economically to the country. Per capita incomes of India will only rise if both the genders work and contribute equally.

人口统计数据。

另一个因素。印度人口年轻。中国人比印度人平均年龄大10岁。因此，中国的工人数量比印度多出1亿到2亿。大多数印度年轻人仍在学习，或刚刚开始他们的职业生涯，以对GDP产生显著影响。此外，中国女性在职业领域的参与度比印度高。事实上，数百万印度女性中有许多尚未开发的人才，如果使用得当，这些人才可以把印度变成一个经济强国，并使人均收入翻一番。许多印度妇女为了家庭和丈夫牺牲了自己的事业，这对国家没有任何经济贡献。印度的人均收入只有在男女平等的前提下才能提高。

 

Victor Tan, studied at Heriot-Watt University

I wonder why are Indians so obsessed nowadays to talk about India surpassing China rather than aspiring to surpass the US?

These flashy tables and statistics while making arguments look compelling is a pcs of waffle with very little meaning and has ignored the fundamental problems that impede Indian’s development.

India as it is today was a creation of british colonialism. It is so diverse and does not have a common lineage nor langauage, rendering impossible for any Indian leader to address this so called world biggest democracy in Hindi or any other language and be understood by the entire nation.

我想知道，为什么如今印度人如此痴迷于谈论印度超越中国，而不是渴望超越美国?

这些华而不实的表格和统计数据，虽然看起来很有说服力，但却毫无意义，而且忽略了阻碍印度发展的根本问题。

今天的印度是英国殖敏煮义的产物。它是如此多样化，没有共同的血统和语言，任何印度领导人都不可能用印地语或任何其他语言来向这个所谓的世界上最大的敏煮国家说话，并被整个国家所理解。

China, despite also experiencing diversity (to a lesser extent compared to India as it is predominantly Han people) was already a unified country with common language since Qin Shih Huang Di (the emperor known for building the great wall of China) emerged as its ruler more than 2 thousand years ago.

What makes a nation great hinges on its population composition.

The caste system (though may have been constitutionally outlawed during the days of mahatma Gandhi) remained deeply entrenched in Indian’s society. This adversely impede the diaspora of the smartest or brightest genes within Indian society.

中国，尽管也经历过多样性(与印度相比程度较轻，其主要人口是汉人)，但自2000多年前统治中国的秦始皇起(修建中国的长城的皇帝)，中国已经成了统一的国家，使用通用的语言。

一个国家的伟大之处在于它的人口构成。

种姓制度(尽管在圣雄甘地时期可能被宪法禁止)在印度社会中根深蒂固。这反而阻碍了印度社会中最聪明或最好的基因的传播。

The Indian smartest and brightest often seek greener pastures outside India (like the Silicon Valley or Wall Street). Conversely it is also true the world brightest would chose not to come to India.

This explains why US despite only having around a third of either India or Chinese population remains world super power till date.

Being the world most populous country in time to come means nothing if birth of duds remains uncontrolled.

印度最聪明的人通常会在印度以外寻找更好的发展空间(比如硅谷或华尔街)。反过来，最聪明的人也不会选择来印度。

这就解释了为什么美国虽然只有印度或中国人口的三分之一左右，但迄今仍是世界超级大国。

如果低端人口的出生无法控制的话，那么在未来成为世界上人口最多的国家也毫无意义。

In essence you need quality population to generate quality growth.

China being the most populous nation since history of mankind did not make them perpetual superpower. The humiliation by more industrious (smaller) countries (notably Great Britain) for more than one and a half century since 1840 opium wars can attest.

Indian society in many facets remains extremely left skewed till this day compared to Chinese society.

India has never eclipsed china historically. For the above reasons I put forward, it never will.

本质上，你需要高质量的人口来产生高质量的增长。

中国是人类历史上人口最多的国家，但这并没有使他们成为永远的超级大国。自1840年鸦片战争以来的一个半世纪以来，中国被更勤奋(更小)的国家(尤其是英国)的羞辱足可以证明这一点。

与中国社会相比，印度社会在许多方面仍然极端左倾。

历史上，印度从未超越过中国。基于我提出的以上原因，它永远不会。

 

Braden Hendrickson, Director at Bollywood (2017-present)

Economy:

China is the biggest exporter to Russia, India, USA, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Korea and Kazakhstan. India is the biggest exporter to United Arab Emirates, Bhutan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Mauritius, and Guinea. 2nd biggest to Afghanistan, Bangladesh and a few African nations. 11th biggest to the USA. If enough Chinese citizens retire, and Pakistani child laborers are rescued, India could become the biggest exporter to Bangladesh, Afghanistan and a few African nations. India did develop a solar power project in 2015 for 12,000 miles. India is also adopting bullet trains, and a new currency note: 2000 Rupee note. 15% of Chinese citizens are retired and 17% of Indians have not reached working age yet. By 2050, it is expected that 34% of Chinese citizens will be retired. India also has a corporation called Indian Oil, which brought $66 billion in revenue in 2015. China gets more tourism. China is home to the Great wall of China, and Terracotta Army. India got 8.69 million tourists in 2015, supporting 40 million jobs. India also has a lot of diamonds and gold.

经济:

中国是俄罗斯、印度、美国、澳大利亚、沙特阿拉伯、韩国和哈萨克斯坦最大的出口国。印度是阿拉伯联合酋长国、不丹、尼泊尔、斯里兰卡、坦桑尼亚、毛里求斯和几内亚的最大出口国。美国排名第11位。如果有足够多的中国公民退休，解救巴基斯坦童工，印度可能成为孟加拉国、阿富汗和一些非洲国家的最大出口国。印度确实在2015年开发了一个12000英里长的太阳能项目。印度也上马高铁和新的货币纸币：2000卢比纸币。15%的中国公民已经退休，17%的印度人还没有达到工作年龄。到2050年，预计将有34%的中国公民退休。印度还有一家名为“印度石油”的公司，2015年实现收入660亿美元。中国有更多的旅游收入。中国是中国长城和兵马俑的故乡。2015年，印度有869万游客，提供了4000万个就业岗位。印度也有很多钻石和黄金。

Military:

Army-China has more active troops, but India has better command structure. India also has newer tanks. They buy more than half of military technology from Russia, and their smallest foreign supplier is Italy. One military general in China in 2014 was accused of ilegally selling hundreds of contracts.

军事:

军队——中国有更活跃的军队，但印度有更好的指挥。印度也有更新的坦克。他们从俄罗斯购买一半以上的军事技术，他们最小的外国供应商是意大利。2014年，中国一名将军被指控非法出售数百份合同。

Air force:

China has more aircraft, but India purchases small amounts of aircraft from Israel. China does not have enough refuelers.

空军:

中国拥有更多的飞机，但印度从以色列购买了少量飞机。中国没有足够的加油机。

Navy:

While China has been growing their Navy, India has 2 aircraft carriers, and has been increasing Coast Guard training. India also does Navy drills with South Korea, Japan and the USA. China does have more submarines than India, though. China did retrofit a Ukrainian aircraft carrier in 2012, but it’s capabilities are unknown.

海军:

在中国海军不断壮大的同时，印度拥有两艘航空母舰，并不断增加海岸警卫队的训练。印度还与韩国、日本和美国进行海军演习。不过，中国的潜艇确实比印度多。中国在2012年翻新了一艘乌克兰航空母舰，但其能力尚不清楚。

Nuclear:

Hope this doesn’t happen, but India has 110 nuclear weapons. They can travel as far as China.

核:

希望这不会发生，但是印度拥有110枚核武器。他们可以打到中国境内。

 

Aravinth Murugan

It is a belief. For the above statement to come true, the current political and economical trend should follow (politics and economics go hand in hand in Subcontinent - Each government has its own policies).

Coming to the statement: By 2050, India will be most populous country in the world.

这是一个信念。要实现上述说法，当前的政治和经济趋势应该遵循

说到2050年，印度将成为世界上人口最多的国家。

1) Demographic Dividend:

The next 40-50 years will see a shift in the demographic dividend (total strength of working class - people with 15-45 years of age gap).

India has a strong demographic dividend. China will be hit here due to its one child policy (Man power - points for India)

1)人口红利:

在未来的40-50年里，人口红利(工人阶级的总人数——年龄相差15-45岁的人)将会发生变化。

印度拥有强大的人口红利。中国将会因为独生子女政策而受到冲击(人力——印度加分)

2) Area of Income

India's GDP rise is mainly due to service sector. About 30% of working class people contribute to 65% of the economy. With education being spread across rural regions in India, we can expect the number of graduates to increase significantly.

If 30% can contribute to 65% of economy, imagine a scenario where we have 50% of the working class contributing to GDP. It will shoot up.

China , on the other hand is a manufacturing economy. Hard labor - common man of China. with environment issues propping up in China, one can expect a gradual reduction (in growth rate and and not absolute value) in manufacturing sector.

They will have to shift focus on to the other two sectors (agri and services).

2)区域的收入

印度GDP的增长主要归功于服务业。大约30%的工人阶级贡献了65%的经济。随着教育在印度农村地区的普及，我们可以预期毕业生数量将显著增加。

如果30%可以贡献65%的经济，想象一下这样一个场景，50%的工人阶级可以贡献多少GDP。肯定会暴涨。

另一方面，中国是一个制造业经济体。艰苦劳动——中国的普通人。随着中国环境问题的加剧，人们可以预期制造业将逐渐减少(增长率，而非绝对值)。

它们将不得不将重点转向另外两个行业(农业和服务业)。

3) Trade

China is India's biggest trading partner. With new emerging markets from smaller countries, India can work on and reduce this trade imbalance (huge difference between Export and import with China).

Note : These are just predictions/expectations - A compilation of "what ifs". Over the course of 50 years, things might change drastically (compare India and China in 1960 and in 2010). As mentioned in the beginning, it all boils down to the current political and economic trends.

3)贸易

中国是印度最大的贸易伙伴。有了来自较小国家的新兴市场，印度就可以着手减少这种贸易失衡(与中国的进出口存在巨大差异)。

注意:这些只是预测/预期——是一个“如果”的汇编。在50年的时间里，事情可能会发生翻天覆地的变化(可以比较一下1960年和2010年的印度和中国)。正如开头所提到的，这一切都可以归结为当前的政治和经济趋势。

 

Sundaramoorthy P, Proprietor (2015-present)

why is this obsession with China economy? This is a theory propagated by western media. Why should India compete with China why not USA?

Are the wars between china and India main reasons? Then India should compete with the combined economies of Britain, Australia, Canada and New Zealand as the whites of these economies grew at the abuse of indian economy. Anyone (Indian) knew the reason as why Dalai Lama was given asylum in India? Why not in USA or any western countries? There are legitimate misunderstandings in the India China wars. That too foreign countries masterminded these. These wars are not the precursors for future war.

Historical India and China relations are good. Religiously and philosophically China and India have same understandings. There was never a war between us. Only Chinese and east Asians can understand us. So stop this unwanted obsession with China. There are more good things will happen if we have good relationship with China and east Asians(including south east Asian).

If China, India, Japan and asean becomes like NATO, then we constitute largest population, economic, military blocks without any challenges. This should be our century. American and European will become immaterial to us.

为什么如此痴迷于中国经济?这是西方媒体传播的一种理论。为什么印度要和中国竞争，为什么不和美国竞争?

中印战争是主要原因吗?然后，印度应该与英国、澳大利亚、加拿大和新西兰的综合经济进行竞争，因为这些经济体的白人占了在印度经济的便宜而不断壮大。有谁(印度人)知道达赖喇嘛在印度避难的原因吗?他为什么不在美国或任何西方国家避难?中印战争中存在着合理的误解。那太外国策划了这些。这些战争不是未来战争的前兆。

历史上的中印关系很好。在宗教和哲学上，中国和印度有相同的理解。我们之间从未发生过战争。只有中国人和东亚人才能理解我们。所以，停止这种对中国不必要的痴迷吧。如果我们与中国和东亚(包括东南亚)保持良好关系，就会有更多的好事发生。

如果中国、印度、日本和东盟成为北约那样的国家，那么我们就会在没有任何挑战的情况下组成最大的人口、经济和军事集团。这应该是我们的世纪。美国和欧洲对我们来说将不再重要。