美版知乎：印度GDP和人均GDP何时能分别突破10万亿美元和1万美元

How soon would India's GDP cross 10 Trillion USD and India's Per Capita Income cross the 10,000 USD respectively?

印度国内生产总值和人均收入何时能突破10万亿美元和1万美元？

QUORA网站读者评论：

Kapil Rananaware, for a prosperous India

Currently India's gdp is worth 2 trllion USD.

thus with 6% growth rate : 10=2*(1+0.06)^t

t comes out to be 27.6 years

for 7% growth rate it is 23.7 years.

4 years less when growth rate is one percent higher !

目前印度的GDP总值为2万亿美元。

因此，按6%的增长率：10＝2*（1＋0.06）^ t。

T代表27.6年

增长率按7%算是23.7年。

增长率高百分之一，时间就能缩短4年！

 

Sandeepan Bose, Electronics Engineer, used to fix Mainframe Hardware, now jobless

India will not take long to touch 10 trillion.

You should check out the PWC report on World Outlook for 2050

印度GDP达到10万亿不需要再等太长时间。

你应该读一读普华永道2050世界展望报告。

 

The World in 2050

They have provided the growth curves of all countries and this is the situation in the future

他们制作了所有国家的增长曲线，这是未来的形势。

 

However USD 10K GDP per capita is a tall order.

Just imagine the huge percentage of Indian population with skills good enough to just work as farm labourers or agriculture related services. How is it possible to upgrade their skills. We are not able to give proper education to their kids either. We would need a huge capital investment to be able to provide manufacturing jobs to these people like China. And on top of that, we are seeing robots take over manufacturing jobs.

然而，人均GDP一万是个难以完成的任务。

想象一下，印度有多少人口缺乏技术，仅能作为农业劳动力或农业相关服务工作。怎样才能提高他们的技能呢？我们也无法给他们的孩子们适当的教育。我们需要巨额资本投资，才能为像中国这样的民族提供制造业就业机会。最重要的是，我们正目睹机器人接管制造业的工作岗位。

 

RT Kaushik, Strategy,Analytics,SW,DigitalMktg,Invsting,Astrology,Cricket

India is at $2T (2015 prices) It grows at 7% real growth and 6% inflation = ~13% nominal growth in rupee terms. So it will double in about 5 years. In 10 years 4 times brings it to $8T. Another 2 years will bring it to $10T. So 2026 should see India there.

In dollar terms it seems to be doubling every 8 years. So ~20 years years to 10T which means 2035 or so.

Per capita takes 10 years to double. It is $1262 as of now. So 8 times will take 30 years viz. 2045.

印度GDP为2万亿美元（2015年），实际增长率为7%，通货膨胀率为6%，按卢比计算，名义增长率约为13%。5年内它将实现翻倍。10年内，增长4次，达到8万亿美元。再过2年就会达到10万亿美元。2026年印度将大放异彩。

按美元计算，似乎每8年就能翻一番。所以，要达到10万亿需要20年时间，也就是2035年左右。

人均GDP翻番需要10年时间。现在是1262美元。因此翻8倍需要30年。也即2045年。

 

Ruli Lolio, lives in India

According to estimates by Centre for Economics and Business Research, India’s GDP would cross 10 trillion USD mark by 2030. By that time India will have a population of at least 1.6 billion (read bold text below) and if we divide 10 trillion USD by 1.6 billion people India’s per capita income in 2030 would be 6,250 USD (China has more than that today in 2016). To cross 10,000 USD per capita income India’s GDP will have to be somewhere between 17 to 20 trillion USD and India will not reach there anytime before its in the 100th year of when the Britishers left the country.

India had a population of 1.21 billion in 2011 census and every 10 years about 200 million people get added to the mix. So in 2030 (one year before 2031 census) close to 400 million will have been added thus taking the total population to about 1.61 billion (rounded off to 1.6 billion).

根据经济与商业研究中心的估计，到2030年，印度的国内生产总值将超过10万亿美元。到那时，印度的人口将达到最少16亿（看下面粗体字），如果我们把10万亿美元除以16亿，印度2030年的人均收入将是6250美元（小于中国2016年的数字）。要跨越10000美元的人均收入，印度的国内生产总值必须达到17-20万亿美元之间，但在英国人离开印度的100年内，印度都不可能实现。

在2011年的人口普查中，印度有12.1亿人口，每10年新增2亿人口。因此，到2030年（2031年人口普查前一年）将增加近4亿，从而使总人口达到16.1亿（四舍五入到16亿）。

 

Vikram Garg, Think structurally, not in terms of personalities or culture

The question is not of when, because this is not simply a matter of time. The question is how. Once the how is answered, the when will come very quickly.

Think of an economy growing as a computer booting up. Then you’ll see what we need to do to become a more productive economy.

Now, how does a computer ‘wake up’ when you press power ? The basic idea is this, a tiny ‘bootup’ controller wakes up as soon as power comes on, and sends a message to major component like the CPU to wake up. The CPU then asks all the components it interacts with (memory, graphics card) to wake up. The memory controller and the graphics do the same for the components they interact with (hard disk, display) and so on.

Economies work in a similar way. A small sector becomes highly productive (powered on) because of some external investment, or discovery of a lucrative market. This small sector now needs inputs from other sectors, and they wake up. And so on. As sectors wake up, they attract even more investment, and find even more markets. And the virtuous cycle continues.

问题不在于何时实现，因为这不仅仅是时间问题。问题在于如何实现。只要知道该如何做，实现的那一天就将很快来临。

把经济增长想象成电脑启动的过程。这样你就知道我们要如何做经济才能更有成效。

如果你按下电源，电脑要怎么开启？一个小小的“启动”控制器在电源一打开就会启用，给CPU之类的主要组件发送指令。然后CPU指挥所有元件交互作用（内存，图形卡）。

经济的运作也是如此。有些外部投资让某个小小领域效益很好，挖掘出有利可图的市场。这个小块领域现在需要来自其他部门的讯号，然后就都复苏过来。随着各个行业的觉醒，它们吸引了更多的投资，并找到了更多的市场。然后开始良性循环。

Small countries like the UAE, Qatar or even Saudi Arabia have a problem taking this model far, since their internal market is small, they basically dont have too many components they can turn on.

But countries like China and US, which are large, and have embedded themselves in a larger economic setup through trade, have lots of internal components (labor forces) to wake up. So they can keep growing larger and reach 10 trillion and more.

So to reach 10 trillion dollars, we have to ‘awaken’ our components, a.k.a labor forces. Or more precisely, help them fight the oppressive forces that keep them somnolent.

像阿联酋、卡塔尔、甚至沙特阿拉伯这样的小国无法采用这种模式，因为它们的国内市场很小，它们基本上没有太多能够启用的部件。

但是，像中国和美国这样的大国，已经通过贸易把自己融入了一个更大的经济体系，有许多内部因素（劳动力）需要唤醒。因此，他们可以保持更大的增长，达到10万亿以上。

为了达到10万亿美元，我们必须“唤醒”我们的内在因素，即劳动力。或者更确切地说，帮助他们战胜压迫他们，让他们昏睡的力量。

 

Matthew Nghiem (嚴黃), Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum

People say that it will be mid 2039 before India can catch up to China's current GDP but that isn't necessarily true. They appear to neglect currency appreciation. With good appreciation, India could catch up much earlier with good appreciation. It could also catch up much later with horrible appreciation.

I notice that Indian nationals like to compare the two countries' economic growth. I say don't worry, India will get there. It is good to compare, but your primary focus should be improvement. Just because it doesn't measure up to China (a huge challenge in any case) doesn't mean you're not improving.

人们说，印度将在2039年年中之前赶超中国目前的国内生产总值，但这不一定能实现。他们似乎忽视了货币升值的问题。如果升值幅度大，印度可以早很多实现。但如果贬值得厉害，也可能要推迟很久。

我注意到印度国民喜欢比较两国的经济增长。我想说别担心，印度肯定能赶上的。比较是好事，但是你应该优先考虑改善提高的问题。仅仅因为它没赶上中国（这绝对是巨大的挑战）并不意味着你没有进步。

 

Realistically, as China slows, investors are increasing looking overseas to change manufacturing operations. In this case, realistically, India would like attract much of that FDI potential, increasing at about 9-10% on average in my opinion for a long time (think 20 years). However, it has many rivals, like Vietnam who (yep you guessed it) have a corporate and work ethic culture similiar to China.

So therefore India will have to fight hard to become rich.

实际上，随着中国经济放缓，投资者越来越多地将目光投向海外，以改变制造业的运作。在这种情况下，印度希望吸引大量的外国直接投资，长期（20年）维持9-10%的平均增长率。然而，它有很多竞争对手，比如越南（你猜对了），他们有着与中国相似的企业和职业道德文化。

因此，印度必须努力奋斗才能致富。

 

Madhav Malhotra, Technical Specialist at ServiceNow (2017-present)

Well, I hope you know that currently India has a GDP of almost$2 Trillion and China has a GDP of $10 Trillion. We all know that India is currently the fastest growing nation, in terms of GDP.

Now, in order to reach a GDP of $10 Trillion, not only will we need to grow in double digits, but we also have maintain this rate year on year. If the GDP grows by 10% year on year then by 2032 we can become a $10 Trillion economy.

我希望你知道，目前印度的国内生产总值接近2万亿美元，而中国的国内生产总值为10万亿美元。我们都知道，印度目前是GDP增长最快的国家。

现在，为了实现10万亿美元的国内生产总值，我们不仅需要以两位数的速度增长，而且还要年年都保持这一增长率。如果GDP每年增长10%，那么到2032年，我们的经济体量将达到10万亿美元。

On an over-simplified scale, GDP (Y) is calculated as :

Y = I(Investments by Firms, new houses bought by Consumers) + C (Consumption of Consumers) + G (Government spending) + NX (Exports - Imports).

So, to grow by double digits, we will have to increase investments in infrastructure/factories, export more, consume more etc. We are all aware that investments are funded by private/public banks, and in the current scenario, public banks are stressed up. By stressed up I mean that these banks are having a lot of NPA’s (Non-performing assets) and bad loans. Once you have so many bad loans and NPA’s, banks become reluctant to lend more , and this reduces the amount which is there in the market to invest.

I hope this gives a brief idea of how GDP is calculated, and what we as a nation need to do to attain a higher GDP growth year on year.

GDP（Y）可以简单计算为：

Y=I(企业投资，消费者购买新房)+C(消费者消费)+G(政府支出)+NX(出口-进口)。

因此，为了实现两位数的增长，我们必须增加基础设施/工厂、促进出口和消费等方面的投资。我们都知道，投资是由私人/国有银行提供资金的，在当前的情况下，国有银行压力很大。这些银行有很多不良资产和不良贷款。一旦你有这么多的不良贷款和不良资产，银行就不愿再放贷了，市场上的投资金额就减少了。

我希望这能简单说明GDP的计算方法，以及我们这个国家需要做些什么才能实现比去年更高的GDP增长。

 

Akshay Smit, Indian. Studied the history of India for several years.

Let’s actually start looking at some hard data. We can make speculative and handwavy arguments all we like, but nothing gives perspective like some hard numbers.

Let’s assume a 1.2% inflation rate in the United States, and a 7.6% real growth rate for India. The current size of India’s economy is USD 2.4 trillion.

让我们先来看一些数据。我们可以随意推测论证，但没有什么比数字更清楚了。

让我们假设美国的通货膨胀率为1.2%，印度的实际增长率为7.6%。印度经济目前的经济规模是2.4万亿美元。

 

Looking at the above graph, it seems that India will achieve a 10 trillion dollar economy, at current USD prices, 16 years from now. That is, in the year 2032.

But of course, India’s growth rate will also decrease from over 7% as the years go by. So let’s see what may happen after 2032.

从上面的图表来看，按目前的美元价格，16年后，印度将可能实现10万亿美元的经济规模。也就是说，2032年的时候。

当然，随着时间的推移，印度的经济增长率也将从7%以上回落。让我们看看2032年后会发生什么。

 

Now the starting year is 2032, assuming a 1% US inflation rate, and a 6% growth rate for India. In this case, India will go from $10 trillion in 2032 to $24 trillion in 2044, a period of 12 years.

That’s the compounding effect of exponential growth. The time period between achieving milestones decreases quite dramatically as your starting base increase. So under the assumptions, India’s economy will quadruple by 2032, and increase tenfold by 2044.

On the other hand, here’s a picture of the US economy with an average 1.5% long-term growth rate, with 1.2% dollar inflation:

现在从2032年开始，假设美国的通货膨胀率是1%，印度的增长率是6%。在这种情况下，印度将在12年的时间内，从2032年的10万亿美元增长到2044年的24万亿美元。

这就是指数复利增长的效应。实现目标所需的时间随着初始基数的增加而显著减少。因此，根据假设，到2032年，印度经济将增长4倍，到2044年增长10倍。

另一方面，如图所示美国经济的长期平均增长率为1.5%，美元通货膨胀率为1.2%。

 

The US economy starts off at $18.5 trillion in 2016, and reaches $40 trillion by 2046. So right now America’s economy is 7.7 times larger than India. By 2045, it will be less than 1.5 times larger.

Here’s a look at India’s regional rival, Pakistan’s economy, assuming 1.2% dollar inflation and 4% long term growth:

美国经济在2016年为18.5万亿美元，2046年达到40万亿美元。所以现在美国的经济比印度大7.7倍。到2045年，这个差距缩小到1.5倍。

下面我们来看看印度的地区竞争对手，巴基斯坦的经济，假设美元通胀率1.2%，长期增长率4%：

 

It starts off much farther to the left at $270 billion. Pakistan won’t become a $1 trillion economy until 2041, by which time India will already be a $20 trillion economy.

And Pakistan’s growth rate certainly won’t stay at 4% for 25 years, so probably Pakistan will reach the trillion mark closer to 2050.

So that’s a comparison based on current growth rates, dollar inflation rates, and prediction on falling long-term growth rates. If nothing else, India’s economic advantage over its rival Pakistan will become even more enormous.

从左边的2700亿美元开始。直到2041年，巴基斯坦才能成为1万亿美元的经济体，到那时，印度已经是一个20万亿美元的经济体了。

巴基斯坦的增长率在25年内肯定不会一直保持在4%的水平，所以巴基斯坦很可能在2050年才能达到万亿大关。

因此，这是一个基于当前增长率、美元通胀率和长期增长率下降的预期的比较。如果没有别的因素，印度的经济优势将比其竞争对手巴基斯坦更大。

 

Samanyu Sood

PwC in its 'World in 2050' report said that India, along with China, will be the world's leading economy by 2050, while Japan, South Korea and Australia will slip in terms of rankings among top global economies. According to the report, Indian economy will surge to $17 trillion in 2030 and $42 trillion by 2050, claiming second place ahead of the US (which will touch $41 trillion) and will comfortably overtake the EU and the US in share of world GDP (in PPP terms) by 2044 and 2049, respectively. PwC also stated that Indian economy will expand by an average annual rate of 6.4% from 2014 to 2020, remaining faster than China after 2020 owing to its younger population and a greater scope for catch-up growth.

India has the potential to become a multi-trillion dollar economy with a per capita income of about $40,000 by 2050.

普华永道在其《2050年的世界》报告中表示，到2050年，印度和中国将成为世界领先经济体，而日本、韩国和澳大利亚在全球顶级经济体中的排名将出现下滑。根据这份报告，印度经济将在2030年猛增至17万亿美元，到2050年将增至42万亿美元，位居第二，超过美国（将达到41万亿美元），并将在2044年和2049年分别轻松超过欧盟和美国占世界GDP的比重（按购买力平价计算）。普华永道还表示，从2014年到2020年，印度经济将以6.4%的平均年增长率增长，由于印度人口较年轻，追赶增长的空间较大，2020年后仍将保持比中国更快的速度。

到2050年，印度有希望成为人均收入40000美元的万亿级美元的经济体。

India, currently, enjoys three major economic attributes that are also seen as factors that will provide a leg-up in the country's journey to a global economic powerhouse—favourable demographics, its status as one among the world's largest democracies and a preponderance of English speakers, which helps ease business dealings with the West.

For one, to reach a size of $20 trillion by 2030 and $42 trillion by 2050, India will have to grow at 7% annually for the next 30-35 years, which seems unlikely. Besides, the country's growth would require sustained economic reforms and increased investment in infrastructure, institutions and mass education. The country will also have to transform its agriculture completely, grow its services and manufacturing sectors and give a boost to tourism.

Like I said it could become $20 trillion by 2030.

$10 trillion would be easy to achieve and the goal would be $20 trillion.

目前，印度有三个主要的经济特征，这些特征被视为有助于该国跻身全球经济强国——人口结构，印度是全球最大的敏煮国家之一的地位以及英语国家的优势。都有助于提高与欧美地区的贸易往来。

首先，为了在2030年达到20万亿美元、2050年达到42万亿美元的规模，印度在未来30-35年必须以每年7%的速度增长，这似乎不太现实。此外，该国的增长需要持续进行的经济改革，并对基础设施、机构和大众教育大力投资。印度还必须彻底改革农业，发展服务业和制造业，并推动旅游业。

就像我说的，2030年印度可能会达到20万亿美元。

10万亿美元也许很容易实现，但目标应该是20万亿美元。

 

 外文链接：https://www.quora.com/How-soon-would-Indias-GDP-cross-10-Trillion-USD-and-Indias-Per-Capita-Income-cross-the-10-000-USD-respectively