穆迪将印度2018年的增长率预期从7.5%下调至7.3%，印度网民评

Moody's cuts India's 2018 growth forecast to 7.3% from 7.5%

穆迪将印度2018的增长率预期从7.5%下调至7.3%

NEW DELHI: Moody's Investors Service today cut India's 2018 growth forecast to 7.3 per cent from the previous estimate of 7.5 per cent, saying the economy is in cyclical recovery but higher oil prices and tighter financial conditions will weigh on the pace of acceleration.

新德里：穆迪投资者服务公司今日将印度2018年的经济增长预期从此前的7.5%下调至7.3%，称印度经济正处于周期性复苏之中，但油价上涨和金融环境的收紧将拖累经济加速增长。

Moody's, however, maintained its 2019 growth forecast at 7.5 per cent.

然而，穆迪将印度2019年增长预期维持在7.5%。

"The Indian economy is in cyclical recovery led by both investment and consumption. However, higher oil prices and tighter financial conditions will weigh on the pace of acceleration.

“印度经济由于投资和消费的增长而处于周期性复苏。然而，油价上涨和金融环境的收紧将会拖累经济加速增长的步伐。”

"We expect GDP growth of about 7.3 per cent in 2018, down from our previous forecast of 7.5 per cent. Our growth expectation for 2019 remains unchanged at 7.5 per cent," it said in an update of its 'Global Macro Outlook: 2018-19'.

该机构在最新的《全球宏观展望:2018-19》中表示：“我们预计2018年印度国内生产总值增长约为7.3%，低于我们此前预测的7.5%。我们对印度2019年的增长预期仍保持在7.5%不变”。

Moody's said growth should benefit from an acceleration in rural consumption, supported by higher minimum support prices and a normal monsoon.

穆迪表示，经济增长应受益于农村消费的加速增长，这得益于较高的最低支持价格和正常的雨季。

"The private investment cycle will continue to make a gradual recovery, as twin balance-sheet issues - impaired assets at banks and corporates - slowly get addressed through deleveraging and the application of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code," it said.

它表示:“私人投资周期将继续逐步复苏，资产负债表中的双生问题——银行和企业中的不良资产——将通过去杠杆、破产程序慢慢得到解决。”

Also, the ongoing transition to the new Goods and Service Tax regime could weigh on growth somewhat over the next few quarters, which poses some downside risk to the forecast, it said. "However, we expect these issues to moderate over the course of the year."

此外，新的商品服务税制的过渡可能会在未来几个季度对经济增长构成压力，这将给预测带来一些下行风险。“然而，我们预计这些问题将在一年内慢慢缓和。”

For the world economy, Moody's expected 2018 to be a year of robust global growth, similar to 2017.

至于世界经济，穆迪预计2018年将延续2017年态势，对全球经济来说会是强劲增长的一年。

"However, global growth will likely moderate by the end of 2018 and in 2019 as a result of a number of advanced economies reaching full employment, and because of rising borrowing costs and tighter credit conditions in both advanced and emerging market countries that will hamper further acceleration," it said.

报告称:“然而，由于许多发达经济体实现充分就业，发达国家和新兴市场国家的借贷成本上升和信贷条件收紧，全球经济增长可能会在2018年底和2019年放慢脚步，这将阻碍经济继续加速。”

The G-20 countries, it said, will grow 3.3 per cent in 2018 and 3.2 per cent in 2019. The advanced economies will grow at a moderate 2.3 per cent in 2018 and 2.0 per cent in 2019, while G-20 emerging markets will remain the growth drivers, at 5.2 per cent in both 2018 and 2019, down from 5.3 per cent in 2017.

该机构表示，20国集团将在2018年和2019年分别增长3.3%和3.2%。发达经济体将在2018年和2019年分别增长2.3%和2.0%，而20国集团新兴市场仍将继续成为经济增长的火车头，2018年和2019年的增速分别为5.2%，低于2017年的5.3%。

Moody's said downside risks to growth stem from emerging markets turmoil, oil price increases and trade disputes.

穆迪表示，增长的下行风险来自新兴市场动荡、油价上涨和贸易争端。

"Overall, we expect 2018 to be a year of robust global growth, similar to 2017," according to Moody's VP Senior Credit Officer Madhavi Bokil.

穆迪副总裁马德哈维·博基尔称：“总体而言，我们预计2018年将2018年将延续2017年态势，对全球经济来说会是强劲增长的一年。”

The outlook for global monetary policy is broadly unchanged with the US Federal Reserve on a predictable and gradual tightening monetary policy path. Three additional increases in the US federal funds rate this year is expected to be followed by three more hikes in 2019.

对于全球货币政策的预测，与美联储在可预测的、逐渐收紧的货币政策道路上大体保持一致。预计今年美国联邦基金利率将再上调三次，2019年将再上调三次。

The European Central Bank will likely stop additional asset purchases by year-end and start increasing the deposit facility rate in the first half of 2019. The Bank of Japan will maintain its current monetary policy over the next two years.

欧洲央行可能会在年底前停止增加资产购买，并在2019年上半年开始提高存款准备金率。日本央行将在未来两年内维持目前的货币政策。

"Rising interest rates and currency depreciation reinforces Moody's view central banks in emerging market countries will not be able to provide monetary policy accommodation for much longer," Bokil says.

博基尔称：“不断上升的利率和货币贬值强化了穆迪的观点，新兴市场国家的央行无力继续提供宽松的货币政策”。

印度时报读者的评论：

来源：http://www.santaihu.com/45128.html

外文：https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com

WorldLink

6016

Worldlink-16 hours ago

Don't worry Modi's great ideas will cut it even more. Our PM's mouth works faster than his brains.

不要担心，莫迪的高见会造成更大下调的。我们的首相的嘴比他的脑子还快。

 

Nationalist

8767

Nationalist-16 hours ago-Follow

Modi - never to be elected next time. Our economy is going into trash!!!

莫迪——永远不会再次当选。我们的经济正在走向垃圾!!

 

MiddleClassIndian.

23093

MiddleClassIndian.-Boston, USA-16 hours ago-Follow

Real growth is less than 3 percent, if calculated by old method... Maha chor Modi and bjpoigs show up as they do show business... Nothing on the ground...

如果按照旧的统计方法，实际增长率不到3%。莫迪和人民党只会表演……根本没有落实任何具体措施……

 

Brain Teaser Brain-Earth-16 hours ago-Follow

Soon it will be 3.7%

很快就会降到3.7%了

 

Nationalist

8767

Nationalist-16 hours ago-Follow

Where is Jaitley? Incompetent FM is the reason for the slow growth! Jaitley should be dismissed immediately!!!

贾特里呢？在哪儿呢？这个不称职的财务部长是增长速度放慢的罪魁祸首！贾特里应该被马上免职！

 

Sridhar Natarajan

7663

Sridhar Natarajan-Chennai-17 hours ago-Follow

Still it is a great number, compared to UPA corrupt regime.

与团结进步联盟腐败的政权相比，这已经算是不错的数字了。

 

Nationalist

8767

Nationalist-16 hours ago-Follow

Another masterstroke by Modi!!!

这是莫迪的又一次成功! ! !

 

Nationalist

8767

Nationalist-16 hours ago-Follow

According to Modi, Nehru is the reason behind this slow growth!!! lol

根据莫迪的说法，尼赫鲁是经济缓慢增长的罪魁祸首!!!哈哈

 

Ravi

11839

Ravi-Delhi-16 hours ago-Follow

After manipulating GDP number it is still 7.3.

即使篡改了GDP数字，还只是区区7.3而已。

 

Joe Kool Joe-16 hours ago-Follow

With a divisive opposition, this is still amazing by any standard. When patriotic faith is restored, the forecast will be double digits.

我们在反对派制造不和分裂的情况下，这个数字已经能令人惊讶了。当大众的爱国信念被唤醒后，经济增长预测将达到两位数。

 

Lonleytom

5457

Anonymous-16 hours ago-Follow

What can we expect from Chaiwalla and pakoda PM

我们有卖茶叶和帕克达小吃的总理，还能指望增长率多高？

 

Nationalist

8768

Nationalist-16 hours ago-Follow

Slow growth!! This is called acche din!!!

经济增长缓慢！这就是好日子！

 

Sundar

6972

Sundar-16 hours ago-Follow

GDP= GAS - DIESEL - PETROL
is going up.

GDP=G天然气-D柴油-P汽油

价格一路上涨

 

Peace Bro

1905

Peace Bro-16 hours ago-Follow

7.3%? joke again... this is a prediction given that NDA stick to their plans most often then not Govs don''t....

7.3%？你又开玩笑了吧。。。这种预测数字让全国敏煮联盟对他们的经济政策执迷不悟。

 

No Congress No Bjp Never Modi

1711

No Congress No Bjp Never-asylum-16 hours ago-Follow

oops! modi didn't pay or modi is getting close to Russia? hope modi will visit US soon to pay them or trade something to change their review

哎哟！莫迪没付钱吗？还是在接近俄罗斯?希望莫迪尽快拜访美国，给他们塞点钱，或者跟他们做一些交易，好让他们修改一下评级

 

Eugin Jeya Pradeep Eugin Jeya Pradeep-15 hours ago-Follow

on what cost economy is growing. By looting the common man

经济增长的代价是什么？是洗劫普通百姓。

 

VIKAS SINGH

1704

Vikas-New Delhi-12 hours ago-Follow

before 2019 election it will become 5% due to MODI ji World tour

2019大选前，会降到5%的，就是因为莫迪成天绕世界乱跑

 

Souvik Ghosh Dastidar

20263

Souvik-Kolkata-16 hours ago-Follow

still looking too much. very optimistic. in reality it will be 3.7% Worse still 0.73%

这个数字仍然高估了。太乐观了。实际上应该是3.7%，甚至是0.73%

 

Aditya Roi

3382

Aditya Roi-16 hours ago-Follow

actual gdp is much better than scamgress... gdp - inflation is the actual number... and it was in negative undet UPA

实际GDP要比丑闻党时期高得多……国内生产总值-通货膨胀才是实际数字…团结进步联盟时期这数字是负数了。

 

Arabinda Datta

9636

Arabinda Datta-SURI, WEST BENGAL-16 hours ago-Follow

Growth above 7 would be an achievement and better than some developed country.

7%以上的增长率将是伟大成就，比一些发达国家更好。

 

Ddindian

3675

Ddindian-India-16 hours ago-Follow

I think Moody''s would have not reduced this .02 percent had Nehru not born. Moody bhi kya kare?

我觉得，如果尼赫鲁没出生过，穆迪不会降低这0.2%。

 

Ddindian

3675

Ddindian-India-16 hours ago-Follow

Moody will get nothing by lowering it by 0,02 percent except abuses of bhaktas.

穆迪把数字下调0.2%，除了被印度人狂批以外，没有任何好处。

 

Brownbrahamin Brownbrahamin-singapore-16 hours ago-Follow

still a great number for bhahts even sero would be good

对印度人来说，这个数字已经很不错了，就算是0也能接受。

 

Gp Dutt

6288

gp Dutt-USA-17 hours ago-Follow

Modi government doesn''t have experience to run the country and manage finances. They don''t have right peoples at right places which is why they are loosing the ground even though they might have good intentions. Murakh dost sey samajdhaar dushman better.

莫迪政服没有管理国家和管理财政的经验。他们没有把对的人放在对的岗位上，这就是为什么他们的根基开始动摇的原因，即使他们的出发点是好的。

 

Lalit Mudgal

1773

lalit mudgal-15 hours ago-Follow

with Indian leaders only concentrating on Muslim vote bank, Indian economy is becoming seriously troubled, and we will have very bad days ahead, only God can save India now.

印度领导人只关注穆斯林票仓，印度经济正慢慢变得困难重重，我们将面临非常糟糕的日子，现在只有神才能拯救印度。

 

Dalitawaaj

9382

Dalitawaaj-9 hours ago-Follow

BJP deviced a new formula for exaggerate GDP but even with new formula they cant make up to the TARGETS

印度人民党创造了夸大GDP的新公式，但即使采用了新的公式，他们也无法达到目标。

 

Sarab Johar

59076

Sarab Johar-14 hours ago-Follow

Is Moody is moody like Modi?

穆迪是不是像莫迪一样喜怒无常?

 

Atul Rupani

2069

Atul Rupani-Kolkata-16 hours ago-Follow

When will the same organisation publish such data related to their motherland

该机构何时会公布与他们祖国的数据

 

Dalitawaaj

9382

Dalitawaaj-9 hours ago-Follow

MODI gona cut the growth forecast even further to 6.5 or 6 . MODI IS ECLIPSE ON INDIAN ECONOMY and GDP growth

莫迪会让增长预测进一步跌至6.5或6。莫迪在印度经济和GDP增长上束手无策

 

Mahavir Bharatiya

2831

Mahavir Bharatiya-11 hours ago-Follow

No need to panic. As long as nationalist party is at the center, no chance of India going back to NEHRUVIAN GROWTH rate.

没必要恐慌。只要民族主义政党处于核心地位，印度就不可能重回尼赫鲁夫时期的增长速度。