印度能追上中国吗？看印度网友算需要几年追赶

Will India catch up to China?

印度能追上中国吗？

美版知乎Quora网贴翻译：

译文来源：Quora中文网 http://www.quora123.com/257.html

Dyutiman Das, from India
Updated Sep 24
I assume like Yuanrui Chen above that the question refers to the economy. If the question is say whether India can catch up to China in number of medals in the Olympics, then …

No one knows the future, so I think it’s preferable to modify the question to “Under what circumstances can the Indian economy catch up with that of China?” I also think it will be uncontroversial to choose per capita GDP as the most basic metric of catching up.

如果是这样问，印度奥运会奖牌数是否能赶上中国？

没人知道未来会如何。

还不如这样问，“什么条件下，印度经济能赶上中国经济？”

我觉得，选择人均GDP作为追赶的指标，大家都不会有异议。

A note on numbers, most commentators believe that the Chinese numbers are significantly inflated, we don’t know, so I am going with the numbers available on Wikipedia. So we have to keep in mind that the real scenario is probably less favorable to China.

There are two GDP numbers, PPP and nominal. China’s per capita GDP PPP is 15.4k and India is 6.6k, a ratio of 2.33, while nominal is China 8.1k and India 1.7k, a ratio of 4.76. So let’s discuss PPP, keeping in mind that nominal would be harder for India to make up.

很多人觉得，中国的数据显然高报了。

所以拿维基上的数据作为参考。

记住，真实形势也许对中国不那么有利。

有两组GDP数据，一个是购买力平价的GDP，一个是名义GDP

购买力平价来算，中国人均GDP为1.54万美元，印度是6600美元，比例为2.33

名义GDP，中国人均为8100美元，印度为1700美元，比例为4.76

现在讨论购买力平价的数据，记住，名义GDP来算，印度要赶上更难。

考虑两种情况。

Let us consider two scenarios in which the ratio of 2.3 declines to 1 and then discuss the plausibility of either scenario.

Scenario 1. China declines, India improves. Suppose the Chinese economy contracts by 5% and India grows by 5% year after year, then it’s easy to calculate that it’ll take about 8.5 years for the two per capita GDPs to become equal at about 10k. ((1+5%)/(1–5%))^8.5 = 2.34. While 5% growth might be realistic for India, a 5% decline (same as US in 2008 crisis) sustained over 9 years is unrealistic for most countries and especially for China.

情况一，中国衰退，印度进步。

假设中国经济每年萎缩5%，而印度增长5%

很容易就算出印度需要大约8.5年就能赶上中国，到时候两国人均收入都为10000美元

对印度来说，5%的增速是比较现实的。

而以5%的速度连续萎缩9年，对大多数国家是不现实的，特别是对中国更不可能。

Scenario 2. China stagnates, India improves. Suppose the Chinese economy posts zero growth and India grows by 7%, then the same calculation shows that it’ll take 12.5 years. 7% growth for India is perhaps not completely unrealistic (although perhaps it’s the best case scenario). Stagnation like Japan’s lost decade is frequently discussed and has to be considered a possibility (although perhaps close to the worst case scenario for China). I think scenario 2 is more likely than scenario 1.

情况2，中国停滞，印度发展。

假设中国经济增速为零，印度增速保持7%

那么印度需要12.5年才能赶上中国。

对印度来说，7%的增速并非完全不可能。

类似日本那样失去十年的停滞，经常被拿来讨论。

我觉得第二种情况比第一种情况更可能发生。

 

Jizhide Daidai, former 2nd Battalion Commander (2013-2016)
Answered Oct 9
certainly.India is the largest democracy country in the world，the political system of Indian is far better than China’s and Indians are more clever than Chinese.Although China’GDP is 5 times more than Indian now,yet Chinese paid very very high price for GDP,e.g.:envrionmental damage,heavy work and so on.The China’s developing potential is exhausted but India still has a lot of potential,so India will take over China in one or two decades.

当然能。

印度是世界最大的民主国家。

印度政治制度远远优于中国。

印度人也比中国人更聪明。

虽然，中国GDP现在超过印度GDP达5倍。

然而中国人为GDP付出了相当大的代价，比如造成了环境破坏。

中国的发展潜力已经耗尽，印度潜力还非常大。

所以，印度在十年或者20年左右会赶上中国。