澳洲将大赌注压在中国上，结局可能并不美好 [英国媒体]

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-------------译者：ooohmygod-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------



Over the last couple of decades, China has undergone profound change and is often cited as an economic growth miracle. Day by day, however, the evidence becomes increasingly clear the probability of a severe economic and financial downturn in China is on the cards. This is not good news at all for Australia. The country is heavily exposed, as China comprises Australia’s top export market, at 33%, more than double the second (Japan at 15%).  

在过去的数十年中，中国历经了意义深远的变革，也时常被誉为经济增长的奇迹。然而逐渐的，中国发生经济以及金融衰退的先兆愈加明显。这一点并不利于澳大利亚。这个国家过于倚赖对中国的出口，澳大利亚对中国的出口额为对排名第二的日本的两倍。

A considerable proportion of Australia’s current and future economic prospects depend heavily on China’s current strategy of building its way out of poverty while sustaining strong real GDP growth. To date, China has successfully pulled hundreds of millions of its people out of poverty and into the middle class through mass provision of infrastructure and expansion of housing markets, alongside a powerful export operation which the global economy has relied upon since the 1990s for cheap imports.

澳大利亚的经济现况及前景十分倚赖于中国现行的经济政策，即在保持gdp强劲增长的同时大力减贫。迄今为止，通过大量的基础建设、房地产市场的扩张，以及大量出口全世界都倚重的价格低廉的商品，中国已经成功的使得成千上万的国民脱贫并成长成为中产阶级。


-------------译者：龙腾翻译总管-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

bullaa 29m ago
what is the strength of this landmass and people who invaded mass killing of inhabitants ,who then dumped criminals and brought ship loads of people from whole of Europe in the name of settlement, the people with whom they did not see eye to eye until 1945 war? Well, what can it be of robbers, looters, pirates and why would they need any strength when they can enjoy the wealth of the loot. It was not until late mid century which saw skilled migrants, most others brought before were even worst even against aboriginals because aboriginals the land was home and not a means of exploitation to richness and which they had nurtured for centuries with their blood and hard work.
Obviously, in minerals the invaders found riches which they then started traded with junk made in China without caring the impact and the reason was too obvious as it meant nothing to them as compared to natives. That is what this breed has done throughout the world, wherever they saw vulnerable ,simple and honest people who gave them shelter until they realised which breed are they allowing to be fed. Their motto was and still is: BEG,BORROW or STEAL which they proudly called "DIVIDE AND RULE"

这块土地以及居住在上面的人到底有什么长处，他们之前入侵并大规模杀死土着居民，然后将罪犯以及以定居的名义将大量欧洲居民迁移到这里，在1945年战争之前他们的意见从没一致过。抢劫者，掠夺者和强盗能何特质，既然他们能享受到掠夺来的财富，他们又为什么要拥有长处。直到20世纪中后期，有技能的移民开始来到澳洲，而在此之前来到澳洲的其他移民更糟糕，甚至反对土着，因为在土着居民看来，他们的土地是家园，而不是获得财富的手段，他们用自己的血汗滋养了这片土地几百年。
显然，入侵者从矿产中获得了财富，于是开始和中国制造的垃圾进行交易，而根本不顾及所会产生的影响，因为比起原住民他们根本不在乎。这就是这个种族在全世界干的事情，脆弱，简单和诚实的人们给他们提供庇护，但是他们却以杀戮相报。他们的座右铭一直都是：乞讨，借用或者偷窃，而他们骄傲的称其为“分而治之”（一种殖民统治手段）。

 -------------译者：氯化钠⊙▽⊙槑-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Beekeeper49 33m ago
Banks providing interest-only repayments on home loans should be penalised. This practice encouraged many home-buyers to go deep into debt based on assumptions that real estate would continue to rapper dly appreciate in value.

那些只为房屋贷款提供利息偿还方式的银行应该受到惩罚。银行的这种做法让很多购房者深陷债务，因为购房者认为房地产的价格只会快速的上升。
 
ID6477671 35m ago
Australia has been abandoning it's above ground industry for years, selling it off like the governments privatization of everything. It's a total mismanagement of the country's economy that's been going on for decades. The reflection of a "quick buck". We gave up our innovation for the dumb arse digging of holes in the ground that any wombat could do.

澳洲放弃地产行业已经好几年，都被卖掉了，好像所有东西都是政府的似的。这完全是国家经济的管理不善，已经持续了数十年，不义之财的反映我们放弃了改革而去做所有袋鼠做的事情（挖洞）。
 
ozimoron 39m ago
I believe our only hope for the future is to take advantage of our relatively high education and bet on technology exports and R&D. We should invest heavily in education and the largest market for new technology - green energy production.

我相信我们未来的希望是在高等教育以及技术出口和研发。我们需要大力投资教育，以及新技术的最大市场——绿色能源生产。

-------------译者：Lonkzxc-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

SkeptInq 39m ago
A nice little exercise in panic generation and fear mongering, Lindsay. Not that original though - it seems people have been predicting economic and financial ruin for Australia since federation.
What your article conveniently forgets to acknowledge are the natural counter balances in the Aus economy which will soften the blow as our dollar falls. Education (an extremely underrated cog in the Australian economic machine), agriculture and tourism will all benefit from the freefalling dollar. Other sectors too, potentially.
Some decreases in house prices and flattening out of growth? Yes. A mild to medium recession? Quite possibly. Financial apocalypse and economic ruin for all? No. But I suppose that sort of conclusion doesn't sell you books, does it?

作者是在生产恐慌和贩卖恐惧。但是并不是原创——好像自从澳洲联邦政府成立以来，人们就一直在预测澳洲会发生经济和金融崩溃。
你的文章随随便便地忘记承认这一点，即澳洲经济有自然平衡的能力，这有助于在澳元贬值时减轻打击。教育（一个在澳大利亚经济机器中被异常低估的齿轮），农业和旅游将从澳元贬值中受益。其他部门也能潜在地受益。
房价有些下跌了而且经济发展减缓了？对。会有一次轻度到中度的衰退？很有可能。影响所有人的金融的末日和经济的毁灭？不。但是我以为那种论断不能帮你卖书，对吧？

-------------译者：Lonkzxc-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

American_Sniper  SkeptInq 32m ago
Not at all. He's not suggesting the next Great Depression is coming. He's pointing out that short-sighted, self-satisfied politicians may have allowed much of the China windfall to be squandered.
 
 完全不对。他没有提出下一次大衰退正在到来。他指出短视自满的政治家可能已经让许多来自中国的横财浪费了。
 
SkeptInq  American_Sniper 26m ago
Erm...
".. it is becoming obvious both domestically and internationally that the country is beset with a massive housing bubble ..."
"..the next generation who have been brainwashed into believing that digging up rocks and flipping houses by accumulating a gargantuan mountain of private debt is how a modern western country builds its future. The results will not be pretty."
Doesn't sound like a level-headed critique of the past to me.
 
 额……
"……很明显这个国家在国内和国际上都被巨大的房产泡沫困扰……"
“……年轻人被洗脑，认为开采自然资源以及通过大量借债来炒房是澳洲建设自己未来的方式。结果可不会怎么好。”
对我来说不是对过去的理智批评。
 
American_Sniper 46m ago
The problem is that much of the wealth was invested in property and successive governments made no attempt to deflate that bubble (they were too busy claiming credit for their magnificent handling of the economy).
If the housing market crashes, a considerable portion of the bubble windfall will vanish.

问题是许多财富被投资于房地产而且历届政府没有减小泡沫的尝试（他们忙于声明对他们自己绝妙经济操作的信任）。
如果房市破灭了，一笔的可观泡沫横财会立即消失的。

-------------译者：Lonkzxc-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

McNeileMcCormick 53m ago
It just goes to demonstrate how stupid All of Australia's Federal, State and Territory politicians are, doesn't it?
No intelligent person - or even one with moderate intelligence - could possibly have believed, as the politicians in the major parties, ALP and Coalition have done, that China's growth would last forever.
History has repeatedly shown this to be a fact.
Australia will reap the whirlwind.
If, as has been predicted, China's growth slows and falls to the same average level as the rest of the world, the Chinese will experience a massive Recession. Millions will go broke. Millions of properties in Australia and elsewhere will return to the market. There will be a Fire Sale the like of which the world has never seen before.

这是在论证所有澳大利亚的联邦、州和地区的政治家有多么愚蠢，是吧？
不怎么聪明的,甚至有一定程度聪明的人，可能像主流政党、工党和联盟中的政治家一样相信中国的增长会永远持续。
澳大利亚将自食其果。
如果中国经济像所预测的那样下滑并降到世界的平均水平，那么中国将经历一次巨大的衰退。数百万人将破产。届时澳洲和世界其他地方的资产将回归市场。那么我们将看到史无前例的减价大出售。

​-------------译者：龙腾翻译总管-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

RoasterMcD  McNeileMcCormick 49m ago
I agree generally but as I understand the chinese influence on the property market is not as strong as real estate agents want you to believe. It is vote winning posturing to ban these investments as they impact such a small portion of the market (allegedly).
The hype of chinese investment in housing is much larger than the truth as I understand it.

我同意，但是中国人对房地产市场的影响并不像房地产中介想让你相信的那么大。之所以要禁止这些投资是为了赢得选票，因为中国投资对市场的影响很小（据称）。
在我看来，中国的房地产投资被拿出来大肆宣传，但并不能反映事实。

American_Sniper  RoasterMcD 22m ago
Not every house falls in price immediately. When the price floor disappears for a sufficient number of properties the whole market falls.
It's the same as the stock market. If there are a thousand of a particular share on the market, the price they sell at is the value of all that company's shares. However the lag on housing is longer.
The market was leveraged up spectacularly and the deleveraging may be just as spectacular.

并不是每个房子的价格会在一夜之间就下降。当足够数量的房屋不再有价格下限时，整个市场才会开始下降。
这个股市的原理是一样的。如果市场上某种股份有1000股，那么其售价就是整个公司的股价。
然而，房地产的延迟会更长一些。
市场已经被严重的杠杆化，那么或许其去杠杆化的规模也将一样庞大。