《日本第一》的作者对国家未来仍保持乐观态度 [日本媒体]

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TOKYO —The all-time, best-selling book by a Western author translated into Japanese is said to be Harvard professor Ezra Vogel’s controversial “Japan as Number One: Lessons for America,” published in 1979. After the 1986 Plaza Accord, Japan was beset by stock inflation, and during those boom years, referred retrospectively as the “bubble economy,” many began wondering if Vogel’s predictions might come true. But after the law of gravity inevitably set in, the impact on capital and property markets was precipitous, and by 1991, a less-heralded writer named Jon Woronoff had penned an ambitious rebuttal to Vogel’s book titled “Japan as (Anything but) Number One.”

东京----西方作家翻译成日文的作品中有史以来卖得最好的畅销书，据说是哈佛教授傅高义出版于1979年引得议论纷纷的《日本第一：美国可学的经验》。在1986年的广场协定后，日本被股市虚涨困扰，在那些繁荣然而回过头来被称为“泡沫经济”的岁月里，很多人想知道傅高义的预言是否会成真。但是万有引力定律开始发力，因此资本市场和资产市场暴跌。到了1991年，一位不太知名的叫乔恩.沃伦诺夫的的作者，写了一部雄心勃勃的驳斥傅高义的书：《日本绝不可能成第一》。

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Still, Japanese haven’t forgotten Vogel’s sunny optimism about their country; so when Sapio (May) produced a cover story titled “Will Japan become the world’s top superpower in 2050?” it assigned U.S.-based Makiko Izuka to track down Vogel, a spry 85, and ask if the impressions that originally led to his bestselling work have changed, and if so how.

不过，日本人并没有忘记傅高义对他们国家的乐观情绪；所以当《Sapio》(五月刊)发布一篇题为“日本会在2050年成为世界顶尖超级大国吗？”的封面故事时，派了常驻美国的饭冢茉树代追踪到了现年85岁，依然很有活力的傅高义，问了他萌生那本最畅销书的初衷是否改变，如果改变了那现在又是怎样的看法。

“At present it is pointed out that Japan faces a variety of problems, and I’m hearing numerous voices expressing concern for Japan’s future,” Vogel begins. “But I don’t think things are that serious. That’s because when viewed globally, Japan is quite a good society.” What follows is two pages of running commentary.

“现在有人指出，日本面临各种问题，我听到很多声音关注日本的未来，”傅高义说，“但是我认为情况没那么严重。因为从全球范围来看，日本还是一个相当好的社会。”后面是两页现场报道。

Vogel acknowledges that the population decline will present problems, solutions for which will be needed to support the aging population. Even with the total population decreasing to 90 million, however, considering the size of Japan’s land area, Vogel does not see that to be a serious problem.

傅高义承认，人口下降会带来问题，必须找出措施应对老龄化。尽管如此，即便总人口下降到九千万，考虑到日本的国土面积，傅高义仍然认为这不是一个严重的问题。

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What he admires most about Japan is its orderly society, which has few equals in the world. For the past 10 years, Vogel has welcomed about 60 students a month to his home, where Japan’s future is discussed. He says he’s “deeply impressed” by the poise of the Japanese students he meets, particularly in terms of how they demonstrate mutual respect and pay attention to the opinions of others. Chinese students by contrast, show a tendency toward being ambitious and egotistical. When the Japanese students are asked in which country they hope to live in the future, they usually reply “Japan.” In contrast, the replies given by Chinese students are typically the U.S., Australia or Canada.

他最欣赏日本的是井然有序的社会，世界上其他地方很难与之匹敌。在过去10年里，傅高义在家中平均每个月要接待60名学生，他们也谈到了日本的未来。他说他对遇到的日本学生的风度 “印象极为深刻”，特别是体现在他们彼此间的尊重和对其他人观点的关注上。相比之下，中国学生就显得更野心勃勃，并且更自我。当问到日本学生将来希望在哪里定居时，他们通常都回答“日本”。而中国学生通常回答希望在美国、澳大利亚或者加拿大定居。

So while China’s overall economic indices have eclipsed Japan’s, that country confronts serious problems such as the growing gap between the wealthy and poor, as well as a deteriorating environment, leading many concerned individuals to consider emigrating. Japan’s solidly established middle class makes it a good place to live. 

所以当中国的总体经济让日本相形见绌的同时，该国面临的严重问题比如逐渐扩大的贫富差距、环境恶化等，使得很多对此关注的人考虑移民。而日本坚实的中产阶层则使得那里宜居。


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MoonrakerAPR. 20, 2016 - 07:31AM JST
What he admires most about Japan is its orderly society, which has few equals in the world.
But at what cost, Ezra?

他最欣赏日本的是井然有序的社会，世界上其他地方很少能与之匹敌。
但是老傅，这花了什么样的代价？

SensatoAPR. 20, 2016 - 07:57AM JST
I read Vogel's book "Japan as Number One" in the mid 1980s, back when many in the business world thought Japan was well on its way to being "number one." In those days, it was a top seller in the business community back when everyone was trying to emulate Japan, and one of the definitive books on Japanese competitiveness, but in retrospect it missed the boat.

我在上世纪80年代中期看过傅高义的《日本第一》，当时企业界很多人认为日本正在正确的道路上走向“第一”。该书当时在商业社会销量极高，人人都想模仿日本，而这是描写日本竞争力的权威书籍。但是现在回溯起来，日本错过了时机。

Vogel really has drunk the Kool-Aid when it comes to Japan, and his logic is more than a few decades behind the times.

只要一涉及到日本问题，老傅就象被洗脑了，他的逻辑整整落后于时代几十年。

For instance, he obviously sees Japan's groupthink and pressure to conform as a positive attribute in saying that Japanese students "demonstrate mutual respect and pay attention to the opinions of others," but sees the "tendency toward being ambitious" that her perceives in Chinese students as being negative.

举个例，言及日本学生“表现出彼此尊重和对他人观点的关注”时，他显然认为日本学生的群体思维和屈从是正面的属性，而他认为中国学生表现“更野心勃勃”是负面的。

He also perceives parochialism among Japanese people as a plus, but the desire to live in other countries among Chinese students as a negative ("When the Japanese students are asked in which country they hope to live in the future, they usually reply “Japan.” In contrast, the replies given by Chinese students are typically the U.S., Australia or Canada.")

他也认为日本人的乡土观念有加分，而中国学生希望移居他国是负面的（“当问到日本学生将来希望在哪里定居时，他们通常都回答“日本”。而中国学生通常回答希望在美国、澳大利亚或者加拿大定居。”）

I won't even go into this one, but the 1950s certainly does come to mind:

我甚至不想提这个，但是作为一名50后当然会记得：

Vogel feels that Japanese women are able to debate with men as equals while maintaining their femininity.

傅高义觉得日本女性可以在保持女人味的同时，还能平等地和男人辩论。

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dagonAPR. 20, 2016 - 08:29AM JST
There was a brief heyday for such alarmist texts back in the late 80's and early 90's. I remember reading one called "The Coming War with Japan". Laughable now in retrospect

80年代晚期和90年代早期，这种危言耸听的文章有一个短暂的顶盛时期。我记得读过一篇文章题为《即将到来的对日战争》。现在想来有点可笑。

katsu78APR. 20, 2016 - 08:30AM JST
Vogel also has a favorable impression of Japanese women. Thirty years ago, the standard for women to achieve equality with men obliged many of them to affect masculine mannerisms. But Vogel feels that Japanese women are able to debate with men as equals while maintaining their femininity.

傅高义对日本女性也有良好的印象。30年前，女性为了争取和男性平等，很多人行为举止不自觉地男性化。但是傅高义觉得日本女性在保持女人味的同时，还能平等地和男人辩论。

Wow, that guy escalated from "shallow, superficial analyst" to "honest-to-goodness dinosaur Japanologist" in a hurry.

哇，那家伙从“肤浅的，表面的分析家”一下子就升级到了“纯正落伍的日本问题专家”也实在忒快了点。

What does it tell us when the most upbeat voices about Japan are so obsessed with looking backward at the past?

如果关于日本的最乐观的声音是沉溺于过去向后看的话，那这意味着什么你们知道吗？

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Aly RustomAPR. 20, 2016 - 09:04AM JST
Agree with all of the above.

同意以上所有。

sighclopsAPR. 20, 2016 - 09:26AM JST
Living in the rose-tinted past, thinking of the good ol' days - much like Japan Inc. When it all boils down, Japan is a tiny island that's wildly overpopulated. Japan had it's chance to keep the roaring 80s steaming ahead, but we all know what happened. Geographically, demograpically, socially & economically - Japan cannot & will not grow.

生活在玫瑰色的过去，回忆从前的好时光----很像日本公司。归根到底，日本只是一个挤满了太多人的小岛。日本在风光的80年代本来有机会一直保持领先地位的，不过我们现在都知道后来发生了什么。不管从地理上、人口统计上、社会上还是经济上来看----日本都不可能也不会再发展了。

Sorry to say, but it's a country in decline.

很抱歉这么说，可这是个正在衰落的国家。

WordStarAPR. 20, 2016 - 09:55AM JST
Sapio --- its name derives from sapient, meaning "wise," as in homo sapiens --- tries to put up a serious front. But how serious can a magazine be, when its most popular feature is a manga by Yoshinori Kobayashi, a dingbat with crayons who coined the term "Washism"? (A combination of "wa" for Japan combined with "fascism" and referring to nationalism with a Japanese flavor.) As for Vogel, we tend to ignore the second half of his book's title ("Lessons for America") which was the rationale for his writing it. Looking at the current Facebook-Selfie-Twitter-driven culture, however, it was a waste of wood pulp.

《Sapino》--得名于sapinent，意为“智慧”，作为智人----试图发一条严肃的头版报道。可是如果这杂志最流行的形象是一个由小林善纪创作的漫画人物，一个用蜡笔画出来的杜撰出术语”washism“（”wa“指日本，与”fascism“((法西斯主义)结合，指一种日本风格的民族主义）的笨蛋，那还能指望它有多严肃。对傅高义来说，我们往往会忽略了他着作后半部分的标题（”美国所能学习的经验“），其实这才是他写书的理由。纵观现在由脸书-自拍-推特驱动的文化，这是浪费纸浆。

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iammeAPR. 20, 2016 - 10:04AM JST
Sapio (May) produced a cover story titled “Will Japan become the world’s top superpower in 2050?” I'm glad this is a question, cause it's really easy to answer. No.

《Sapio》(五月刊)发布一篇题为“日本会在2050年成为世界顶尖超级大国吗？”的封面故事，我很喜欢这个标题问题，因为答案很简单：不可能。

Of course Japan has its good points and is currently in a better state than a majority of countries in the world. No question about that. But trying to paint the future of the country in a rosy color is looking away from reality. Vogel is no economist, so while he can say that Japan's ordered society is good (subjective opinion), he can't extrapolate that to say they will be "number one" just from that. If that were the case, they wouldn't had needed Western (or Chinese) technologies to advance where they are now, they could have developed it themselves. But they can't, because as a society they lack the innovative mind and there aren't enough people willing to take the needed risks.

当然，日本有它的优势，其目前的处境也比大多数国家要好得多，这点是毫无疑问的。但把国家的未来描绘得一片光明却是在脱离实际。傅高义不是经济学家，他认为日本的有序社会形态（年功制度）是很好的优点（主观意见），但他不应该仅仅以此就推论出日本第一的结论。果真如此的话，日本也不需要西方（或中国）的技术来达到目前的水平了，他们自己早就应该发展拥有了。但日本并没有，因为这个社会缺少创新精神，也没有那么多敢于承担必要风险的人。

As to the future of Japan, he seems to understand that Japan has its problems. He actually lists some great points that Japan needs to change. But won't. Except for this:

对于日本的未来，他似乎明白日本有其自身的问题，他也对此提出了一些宝贵的意见。可惜没用（社会僵化，很难改变，前面两点很难实施），除了这一条：（原文还有最后一段，是傅高义提的三点意见，第一点是鼓励企业敢于冒险，第二点是引进人才和加深国际化，第三点就下面这一句）

And thirdly, Vogel advises Japanese politicians to pay more heed to the advice of the nation’s elite bureaucrats, as was commonly practiced in the 1970s.

第三点，傅高义建议日本政客需要多多注意国家精英官僚阶层的意见，如同上世纪70年代那样。
WTF?
这不扯淡吗？

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IllyasAPR. 20, 2016 - 10:39AM JST
WTF?
Japan Inc worked for a reason. The close coordination between technocrats and corporations was undeniably a large reason for Japan's post-war prosperity.

这TMD是怎么回事？日本公司这么做是有原因的。技术专家和公司之间的紧密协调无疑是日本战后繁荣的一大原因。

igloobuyerAPR. 20, 2016 - 11:11AM JST
Is it 'ordered society' or 'passively self-subjugating society'?

它是“有序的社会”还是“被动自律的社会”？

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SensatoAPR. 20, 2016 - 11:17AM JST
Japan Inc worked for a reason. The close coordination between technocrats and corporations was undeniably a large reason for Japan's post-war prosperity.

日本企业的战后繁荣得益于技术人员和公司的紧密配合，无疑是日本战后繁荣的一大原因。
@Illyas

Even more crucial to Japan Inc.'s success (the educated and hard-working population aside) was the longstanding artificially weak yen (Y360 to the USD), import barriers for several decades post-war combined with unfettered access to the U.S. market of over 300 million consumers.

日本企业成功的更重要原因（除了受过良好教育和勤奋的人口之外）是长期人为干预的弱势日元（360日元等于1美刀），战后几十年的进口壁垒外加对日全面开放且3亿多人的美国大市场。

Japan deserves a lot of credit for the post war "economic miracle" but it wouldn't have been possible with a lot of external support as well.

日本配得上战后“经济奇迹“的荣耀光环，但没有大量的外部环境支持也不可能实现。

tinawatanabeAPR. 20, 2016 - 11:53AM JST
Japan can not and does not want to be the Number One.

日本不能，也不想成为第一。

Sensato, the yen rate in the 80s was 100 something, not 360.

Sensato君，日元在80年代的汇率（日本对美刀）是100左右，而不是360。