经济政策：人民币如何为货币市场定下基调 [英国媒体]

Buttonwood

经济政策

How the yuan sets the tone in currency markets

人民币如何为货币市场定下基调



Moves in the Chinese currency carry rare news

人民币的变动会带来罕见新闻

MARIO DRAGHI, boss of the European Central Bank (ECB), is a polished speaker, clear and direct. Yet there was a moment after the bank’s monetary-policy meeting on September 13th when he was uncharacteristically vague. Asked how the ECB might recycle the proceeds from maturing bonds once it ends its bond-buying programme, he said the issue had not come up. “We haven’t even discussed when we’re going to discuss it.” Perhaps at the meeting in November. Or December. It will be soon, anyway.

欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉是一名完美的演讲者，说话清楚而直接。但在9月13日，欧洲央行的货币政策会议结束后，他一反常态地含糊其辞。当被问及欧洲央行的债权购买计划一旦结束，如何将到期债权的收益进行再投资时，他说目前为时尚早。“我们甚至还未讨论何时讨论这个问题”。也许在11月份的会议上，也许在12月份，反正很快会讨论。



China looms large as an importer and exporter. It is the largest trading partner for almost every country on the planet. But the trade it dominates is priced, invoiced and settled mostly in the currency of America. Indeed, such was the importance of exports to China’s economy that, until quite recently, the yuan’s value was pegged tightly to the dollar.

中国在进出口方面十分突出，几乎是全球所有国家的最大贸易伙伴。但中国主导的贸易大部分以美元来定价、开发票、结算。事实上，出口对于中国经济如此重要，以至于不久前，人民币币值仍紧盯美元。

Off the peg

与美元脱钩

But no longer. Since August 2015 the yuan has ostensibly been managed by reference to a broad basket of currencies. In principle this is so the yuan’s value can better reflect economic forces. In practice it simply allows the yuan to move in a wider range against the dollar, says Mansoor Mohi-uddin of NatWest Markets. Even this has limits. If the yuan strengthens too quickly, it will hurt China’s exports. If it weakens too much, the dollar debts of Chinese firms become more onerous. A sharp drop might spark duation fears and capital flight.

但现在不同了。自2015年8月以来，中国表面上参照一篮子货币管理人民币。理论上是如此，人民币币值可以更好地反映经济实力。但国民西敏寺银行的曼苏尔·莫希-乌丁表示，实际上中国只是允许人民币在更大范围内随美元波动。即便这样也有限制，如果人民币升值太快，中国出口会受到损害。如果贬值太多，中国企业的美元债务会更加繁重，币值暴跌可能引发贬值恐慌和资金外逃。



China’s pull must now be reckoned with when thinking about the outlook for currency markets. A typical long-range forecast for the euro is $1.30, some 10% higher than where it trades now. That forecast is close to estimates of the euro’s purchasing-power parity, the exchange rate that would make the price of a basket of goods the same in Europe as in America. It seems a natural rate for the euro to gravitate towards. But it will be hard for it to reach that level unless China’s policymakers allow the yuan to rise against the dollar. And who can say with confidence that they will?

现在预测货币市场的前景必须考虑中国的影响力。欧元兑美元有代表性的长远预测是1.30美元，比当前汇率高10%。这一预测接近于欧元购买力平价的估值，后者是使一篮子商品价格在欧洲和美国等值的一种汇率。欧元趋向这一汇率似乎很自然，但很难达到这个水平，除非中国决策层允许人民币随美元升值，但谁能信心十足的说他们会这样做？