安倍寻求与俄罗斯签订和平条约 [日本媒体]

TOKYO-As Prime Minister Shinzo Abe enters a seventh year in office, he is chasing the holy grail of Japanese diplomacy: a breakthrough in a decades-old territorial row with Russia that has stymied a formal peace treaty since the end of World War Two.

东京——随着日本首相安倍晋三的执政进入第七个年头，他正在追求日本外交的圣杯：在与俄罗斯之间存在数十年之久的领土争端上取得突破，这一争端妨碍了正式和平条约的签订。

Abe, who has signalled he is keen to strike a deal, is expected in Moscow next month for his 25th summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

安倍曾暗示他渴望达成一项协议，预计将于下月在莫斯科与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京（Vladimir Putin）举行第25次首脑会谈。

Veterans of past negotiations say 2019 may be the best and last chance for Abe, who sees a treaty as a potential political legacy, to end the row over a group of windswept islands seized by Soviet troops in the final days of the war.

曾参与过谈判的老兵表示，2019年是安倍解决在二战最后几天被苏军占领的一系列海风吹拂的岛屿的争端的最佳也是最后机会，安倍将和平条约视为其潜在的政治遗产。

"Abe has only two years and nine months left in his term. If he wants to do this himself, it is a fight against time," said Muneo Suzuki, a former negotiator and Abe confidant.

“安倍的任期只剩下两年零九个月了。如果他想自己做成这件事，就需要与时间赛跑了。”前谈判代表、安倍的心腹铃木宗男（Muneo Suzuki）说道。

"If it goes on like this, it will end with nothing," he told Reuters.

他向路透社表示，“如果事情这样发展下去，最终将一无所获。”

Putin may be open to a deal now, expecting that better ties will act as a counter-balance to China and attract more Japanese investment and technology, some experts say.

一些专家表示，普京现在可能愿意接受一项协议，此举可以拉近俄日关系，共同制衡中国，吸引更多的日本投资和技术。

Others doubt Putin really wants any agreement, partly because a majority of the Russian public is opposed to returning any of the islands, known in Japan as the Northern Territories and in Russia as the Southern Kurils.

其他人质疑普京是否真的想要任何协议，部分原因是，大多数俄罗斯公民反对归还任何岛屿。这些岛屿在日本被称为北方四岛，俄罗斯则称其为南千岛群岛。

"I don't believe there will be an agreement before 2021 when Abe's stint ends," said Valery Kistanov, head of the Center for Japanese Studies at Moscow's Institute of Far Eastern Studies.

莫斯科远东研究所日本研究中心主任瓦列里·基斯塔利诺夫（Valery Kistanov）表示，“我认为在2021年安倍任期结束前不会达成协议。”

Hopes for an agreement have been dashed before.

此前达成协议的希望已经破灭。

A two-day summit in December 2016 ended with promises of economic cooperation but no big breakthrough on the islands.

2016年12月，为期两天的会谈最终达成经济合作的承诺，但是岛屿争端没有取得大的进展。

In September, Putin caught Abe off guard when, on stage with the Japanese leader at a conference in Vladivostok, he suggested signing a peace treaty by year end "without any pre-conditions".

今年9月，在海参崴的一次会议上，普京与日本领导人安倍一同登台时突然提议在今年年底“在没有任何前提的情况下”签订和平条约，这让安倍措手不及。

Abe later rejected the proposal, repeating Japan's stance that the question of sovereignty must be settled first.

安倍后来拒绝了这一提议，并重申日本的立场是主权问题必须首先解决。

After the two met again in Singapore in November, Abe told reporters they had agreed to speed up negotiations based on a 1956 joint statement in which Moscow agreed to transfer the two smaller islands to Japan after a peace treaty was concluded.

今年9月，二人在新加坡再次举行会谈，安倍向记者表示，双方同意在1956年联合声明（在这一声明中，俄罗斯同意在和平条约缔结后归还两个较小的岛屿）的基础上加快谈判进程。

"The President and I completely share the strong determination that we will not put off this problem ... but will put an end to it with our own hands," Abe said.

“我和普京总统都完全同意我们不会推迟问题解决的决心，但是我们将亲手解决它。”安倍说道。

Retired diplomat Kazuhiko Togo said the remarks showed Abe was determined to clinch a deal.

退休外交官东乡和彦表示，这番评论表明了安倍达成协议的决心。

"If you read Abe's statement after the Singapore meeting ... Abe was saying very clearly, 'I am going to do it'," Togo said.

“如果你阅读了安倍在新加坡会谈后的声明，安倍已经说的很清楚，‘我要这么做’”东乡说道。

Suzuki said a likely deal was one in which Russia gives up the two smaller islands and retains the two larger ones, but allows Japan some access -- a formula known as "two-plus-alpha".

铃木表示，现在可能达成的协议是俄罗斯放弃两个较小的岛屿，保留两个较大的岛屿，但是给予日本部分进入的权力——该模式被称为“2+1”。

A peace treaty could be signed in June when Putin is likely to visit Japan for a Group of 20 meeting, but negotiating the handover of the smaller isles would take more time, he said.

他表示，今年六月普京可能访问日本参加二十国集团峰会，届时将签署一项和平条约，但是对于较小岛屿的转让问题的谈判将需要更多的时间。

Japan has claimed sovereignty over all four islands, so a"two-plus-alpha" deal would likely be unpopular with conservative voters who make up Abe's core political base.

日本宣称对全部四座岛屿拥有主权，所以“2+1”协议可能不受构成安倍核心政治基础的保守主义选民的欢迎。

In a sign of its sensitivity, Foreign Minister Taro Kono ignored questions about the islands at a recent news briefing. He later apologised, saying he should have replied "No comment".

日本外相河野太郎（Taro Kono）在最近的新闻发布会上对有关岛屿争端的问题置之不理，显示出日本的敏感性。他后来进行道歉，称他应该回答“无可奉告”。

Moscow's conditions for a deal could be too much for Abe to swallow. Among them is a guarantee that Tokyo will not allow U.S. military deployments on any returned islands.

莫斯科提出的达成协议的条件可能会让安倍难以接受。其中一项保证是，东京不允许美国在任何返还岛屿上驻扎军队。

Russia, which has strengthened its military presence on the larger islands, said on Monday it had built new barracks for troops and planned more facilities for armoured vehicles, prompting a protest from Japan.

俄罗斯已经在较大的岛屿上加强了军事存在，周一，俄罗斯政府表示，它已经为军队修建了新的兵营，并计划为装甲车提供更多的设施，这引发了日本的抗议。

Hours later, though, ministers from the two countries met in Tokyo to discuss economic cooperation.

尽管，几小时后，两国外长就在东京会面商谈经济合作。

Any transfer of sovereignty to Japan would have to address the role of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty and Washington's right to establish military bases on the islands.

任何向日本的主权转让都必须处理《美日安保条约》的角色问题及美国在这些岛屿上设立军事基地的权利。

"Abe seems to want to get away with a verbal statement that no U.S. facilities would be allowed," said James Brown, a professor at Temple University's Japan campus. "That's not good enough for the Russian side."

坦普尔大学日本校区教授詹姆斯·布朗（James Brown）表示，“安倍似乎想通过不允许美国建设设施的口头声明来规避这一问题，这对俄罗斯来说还不够好。”

Efforts to break the deadlock have floundered before, but failure now would be significant for Abe, said Togo.

东乡表示，打破僵局的努力以前也曾遇到困难，但现在的失败对安倍来说意义重大。

"This is the last opportunity," he said. "Abe has insisted for five or six years that this is his priority issue. If there is a setback, it will be weightier than in the past."

“这是最后的机会，”他表示，“五六年来，安倍一直坚称解决岛屿争端是他的当务之急。如果出现挫折，那将比以往更加严重。”

Burning Bush
Why is Abe trying so hard to pander to Russia?

日本为什么如此迎合俄罗斯？

Haaa Nemui
Because tensions need to be reduced at a time when allies are so unreliable.

因为盟友如此不可靠的时候，需要缓解紧张局面。

extanker
Resolving tensions leftover from a decades old war is 'pandering'? I'll never understand hating a politician so much that you hope they fail at everything.

解决几十年战争遗留下的紧张局势就是“迎合”？我永远也不会明白为什么会这么痛恨一个政客以至于希望他们在任何事情上都失败。

Ganbare Japan!
Putin is a popular leader in Japan, and highly respected. Unlike in the West where he is still disliked due to Cold War rivalry remaining. He already made the offer to negotiate the Peace Deal. PM Abe and Putin are on the same page on this issue. The "2 plus alpha" deal is acceptable for now for Japan, as long as Russia promises the 2 larger islands to be handed over in 10 years. US Military will not be needed on the returned islands, Japan can manage with a much expanded and bigger Military in next few years.

普京在日本很受欢迎，备受尊敬。不像在西方，因为冷战对抗依然存在，普京仍不受欢迎。他已经提出通过谈判达成和平协定。安倍和普京在这个问题上看法一致。“2+1”协议目前对日本来说是可以接受的，只要俄罗斯承诺在10年内移交两个较大的岛屿。在归还的岛屿上不需要美国军队，在未来几年内日本将以一支规模更大的军队进行管理。

This will be PM Abe's legacy, and he will realize it, there is no doubt.

这将是安倍晋三的遗产，毫无疑问，他会意识到这一点，

thepersoniamnow
Its kinda obvious that since Japan isn’t in a position of power and Russia isn’t weak, why would a concession favoring Japan come into play?

很明显，既然日本不够强大，俄罗斯并不软弱，为什么会出现有利于日本的让步吗？

Insane Wayne
Putin should be wary of Abe. Japan is increasing military spending and might resort to war to jump start their economy.

普京应该警惕安倍。日本正在扩大军费开支，可能会诉诸武力启动经济。

Mahesvara-of-Japan
What is PM Abe waiting for? Agreeing to Russian conditions and sign a peace treaty with Russia should be a top priority. Putin is highly popular and respected in Japan.

安倍晋三在等什么呢？接受俄罗斯的条件、签署和平协议应该是当务之急。普京在日本非常受欢迎也受到尊敬。

Wolfpack
The chances that Russia will make any concessions on the islands, whose surrounding waters give their Navy access to the Pacific, are about the same as the chances Palestinians will agree to a two state solution with the Israelis. Exactly zero.

俄罗斯在岛屿（岛屿附近水域可以让俄罗斯舰队进入太平洋）问题上做出让步的可能性与巴基斯坦同意与以色列分建两国的可能性一样，完全为0。

AlexBecu
Japan should hold out for all the Islands or at least give us back the bigger Islands first. Settling for the 2 small Islands we could have done that already many decades ago. This is not a new proposal, it's a concession and acceptance of the old offer by Russia.

日本应该坚持收回所有岛屿，至少应该先收回两个较大岛屿。在2个小岛屿上定居我们几十年就可以做到。这不是一个新提议，这是俄罗斯对就提议的让步和接受。

1glenn
Putin is the dictator of a third rate country. There is no need for anyone to pander to him. Without his hordes of computer hackers, he would be powerless.

普京是三流国家的独裁者。没必要讨好他。他要是没有成群结队的电脑黑客，将无能为力。

Paul Privara
It's too bad Abe is dealing with a third-rate kgb hack like Putin! Had Russia had a real politician in place (one who earned the spot through free elections) then a resolution would be possible!
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安倍和普京这样一个三流克格勃特工打交道真是糟糕！如果俄罗斯有一个真正的政治家（一个通过自由选举当上总统的政治家），那就有可能解决了。