英媒：中国的中产阶级在爆发 [英国媒体]

本文作者 ：
Kim Iskyan, Truewealth Publishing
Aug. 28, 2016,  2:09 AM

The American consumer has been a central driver of the global  economy for decades. Fortunately for the overburdened American  consumer, China’s middle class is going to be picking up  more of the slack. 

美国消费者数十年来一直都是全球经济的核心驱动力。中国的日益强大的中产阶级对不堪重负的美国消费者而言是个好消息。

China’s middle class is on fire. According to  a study by consulting firm McKinsey & Company, 76 percent of  China’s urban population will be considered middle class by 2022.  That’s defined as urban households that earn US$9,000 – US$34,000  a year. (That might not sound like a lot, but adjusted for  prices, it delivers a roughly comparable “middle class” existence  to other countries.) In 2000, just 4 percent of the urban  population was considered middle class.

中国的中产阶级正在火速增长。 根据一份麦肯锡公司的研究结论。 根据城镇居民每年能转到9000美金到34000美金每年的中产认定标准， 在2022年76%的中国城市人口将会被认定为中产阶级。 （也许这个标准听上去好像不怎么高， 这是因为根据物价的调整得出了一个近似在其他国家“中产阶级”的水平）

图：中国中产阶级占城市人口比率



affulent 富裕的，  upper middle 中上层  ，  Mass middle中产 ，  poor 穷

China had an urban population of 730 million people in 2015. So  even if that figure doesn’t change (and it will only grow), by  2022 over 550 million people in China will be considered middle class. That  would make China’s middle class alone big enough to be the  third-most populous country in the world. 

中国在2015年有7亿3千万城市人口 。 如果这个数字没有改变（并且只会增长）的话， 到2022年将会有超过5亿5千万的人在中国被认定为中产阶级。如果将这些中产阶级人数单独算出来将会是世界人口第三多国家。 

China’s middle class will be making more money

中国的中产阶级将会赚更多的钱  
  
According to McKinsey, in 2012 54 percent of China’s urban  households were considered “mass middle” class, meaning  they earned between US$9,000 and US$16,000 per year. But by 2022,  thanks to a growing number of higher-paying high-tech and service  industry jobs, 54 percent will be classified as “upper  middle” class – meaning they earn between US$16,000 and US$34,000  a year. 

根据麦肯锡的研究在2012年中国有54%的城市居民被认定为 “大中产（mass middle）"阶级。 这意味着他们每年能赚9000-1万6000美金每年。 但是到2022年，受惠于增长的 高科技产业和服务业岗位 54%的人将会被归纳为”上层中产(upper middle)"阶级  这意味着他们每年能赚1万6000到3万4000美金。

Meanwhile, Chinese consumption (the amount of stuff people buy)  is expected to grow 9 percent a year through 2020, according to  the Boston Consulting Group. Overall, the consumer economy is  forecasted to grow by 55 percent, to US$6.5 trillion. That’s an  increase of US$2.3 trillion – which is like adding a new consumer  market 1.3 times larger than the current consumer markets of  Germany or the U.K. And that’s assuming that China’s GDP will  grow by 5.5 percent a year, which is lower than the projected  growth of 6.5 to 7 percent a year.

与此同时，根据波士顿咨询公司 中国的消费（人们买的东西）到2020年每年预计增长百分之9. 总体来说中国的消费经济预计将会增长55%达到6.5万亿。 足足增长了2.3万亿-如果将这个数字单独列出来 相当于目前德国和英国消费市场的总和。到时预计总过的 GDP增长为5.5%低于计划的6.5%-7%每年。 

图：中国与其他国家消费增长的对比



（左到右：美，中，日，德，英，法）
private consumption 民间消费， comsuption added 2015-2020 2015-2020年消费增长

Chinese households have very little debt

中国家庭债务很少
  
Another factor that’s supporting China’s consumer spending growth  is its low level of household debt. China’s household debt-to-GDP  ratio of 40 percent is less than half the American household  debt-to-GDP ratio, and is much lower than those of other  developed countries, as shown below.

另一个支持中国消费增长的因素是低层度的家庭债务。 中国家庭债务和GDP比率为40%低于美国的一半 并且比下图所示的所有发达国家都低。

图：家庭债务与GDP比率（2016年第一季度）



（左到右国家：韩国， 美国， 英国， 香港， 日本， 新加坡， 欧盟， 中国）

This means that Chinese consumers will spend less on servicing  their debt – and that they’ll be able to take out more debt. In  theory – although there is some cultural bias against excessive  debt – this will support further growth in consumption. 

这表明中国消费者在还债方面花费更少-， 因而他们将能够借出更多的钱。   虽然这种情况是因为文化方面对过度借贷的偏见， 但是这将会推动消费的进一步发展 。

A new generation of spenders

新一代消费者  

In addition to having higher incomes and low debt, the younger  Chinese generation is more consumption-oriented than its  predecessors. Unlike generations that came of age before the  1980s, people in China have access to the stuff that consumers in  the rest of the world do. And the younger generation is also not  as frugal as their parents and grandparents. Their consumption  spending is growing at a rate of 14 percent a year.
    That’s twice as fast as consumption growth for the “last  generation,” those aged 35 or older. The young generation is  expected to account for 53 percent of total Chinese consumption  by 2020, up from its current 45 percent share.

除了拥有更高的收入和低贷款， 更年轻的中国一代与上一辈相比花的更多。 中国的年轻一代 不像在1980年出身的老一辈，他们能碰到全世界其他地方消费者都能接触的东西 。 并且年轻一代门也不像他们的父母或者祖父母那么简朴。 他们的花销每年增长14%,比35岁以上的上一代快2倍. 到2020年中国的年轻一代预计将会从目前的 45%占到中国消费的55%。

What this means for investors

这些对投资者意味着什么
 
Chinese consumer companies are one obvious beneficiary of China’s  consumer boom. The easiest way to buy this trend is through an  ETF that focuses on the Chinese consumer sector. 

中国的消费品公司显着受益于中国消费者的爆增。 买这个趋势最简单的途径就是购买面向中国消费者部分的 交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)


BunchOfRetard 
 Aug 28,  9:03 AM said:（up:5 down:7)
New generation barbarians with lots of cash !

新一代超有钱的野蛮人

Amos
 Aug28,  2:25 PM said:（up：3 down：4）
@BunchOfRetard:（回复：BunchOfRetard）
Old generation barbaians with no cash is jealous

老一代 的野蛮人连钱都没有就会嫉妒

hajibubba
Aug 28,  2:30 PM said:（up：1 down:4)
One thing I have leaned and I am confident about it is that any information, figures, numbers, stats, GDP that a western source, media outlet, or writer, blogger quotes are provided ultimately by the Chinese government, based on that, you can not believe what you read. 

我发现了一件事并确信， 一个西方来源 无论媒体或者是作家 博主引用的任何信息，表格，数字， 统计， gdp最终都是用中国政府提供的。 基于这个原因你不能相信你读的东西。

Culverton
Aug 29,  1:10 AM said: 
@hajibubba:（回复：hajibubba）
You can hide your head in sand all you like because nobody cares   

你可以把你头埋在沙子里 没人管你的喜好。

donhuang
Aug 28,  4:24 PM  said: （up:1 down:1) 
Compared to what’s going on in America and the EU, most people outside these two regions would gladly become either a cash rich old or young ‘Barbarian’ than a heavily ‘indebted and relatively poor’ but refined / sophisticated upper class western prodigal citizen. No amount of ‘artful words’ from the West can deny what’s already a reality on the ground in China: a growing middle class that is bigger that the USA and Europe combined. “Great spirits gave always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.”

与美欧正在发生的相比， 大多数美欧之外的人都愿意成为 “有钱的老头/年轻的野蛮人” 而不是“严重负债和相对平穷”的西方上层城市居民。 但是没有任何西方花言巧语能够否认中国大地上发生的事实 : 一个正在成长的中产阶级比美欧的总和还大 "伟大的灵魂总是遭遇平庸头脑的暴力对抗“。

回复：
richw
Aug 28,  9:45 PM said:
Baloney, the middle class you speak of is so small. I would say the population is 85% still poor, 10% middle class , 5% rich. I define middle class as having a apartment / house and a car, the poor are those still living at home with multi-generation in the same household.

胡扯。 你口中（译者： 中国） 的中产阶级小的很。 我会说85%依旧穷， 10%是中产， 5%的富人。 我认为座位中产阶级起码得有个公寓/房子 和车子。 这些穷人还是几代住在一个房子里。 

Culverton
Aug 29,  1:13 AMsaid:（up：0  down:1)
@richw:  Over 50% family in China has cars and apartment, thats like a very common for people over 40s in China

超过50%的中国家庭有房有车。 这对于40岁以上的中国人来说很正常。
 
BunchOfRetard
Aug 29,  2:29 AMsaid:(up:0 down:0)
@Culverton: yeah who you bluffing ? 98% of the chinese still live in old brick apartments full of cockroaches and don't even have clean water at home. Look around you, dumbass ! 

你在唬谁？ 98%的中国人还住在满屋蟑螂没有干净饮水的老砖房公寓里。 傻逼， 看看你周围吧。