报告推测,到2030年将不会有全职雇员 [日本媒体]

By 2030,there will be no full-time employees, report speculates

报告推测,到2030年将不会有全职雇员



TOKYO —Within 20 years, says Shukan Asahi (Oct. 7), “the full-time employee will havedisappeared.”

东京——Shukan Asahi表示：“20年内，全职员工将不复存在。”

Is thisgood news or bad? Calamity or opportunity?

这条新闻是好是坏？这是灾难还是机遇?

“Working Conditions in 2035” is thetitle of a labor ministry report released in August. Among its 30 pages areseveral imagined “case histories.” The ones Shukan Asahi summarizes are prettysunny. “A-san” (as we’ll call her) is 50 now, a company accountant. “Fifteenyears ago” – which is to say, in 2020 – she lost her job to an artificiallyintelligent robot. But she’d known it was coming and prepared accordingly. Sheacquired qualifications as a health counselor and “now” – in 2035, aged 69 –works at a hospital, assisted by (you guessed it) an AI robot.

劳动部8月发布的报告题为《2035年的工作条件》。在30页的报告里是一些想象的“案例记录”。Shukan Asahi摘录的人都很快活乐观。“A女士（我们这么叫她）”现在已经50岁了，是一个公司会计。“15年之前（也就是说2020年）她的工作被一个人工智能机器人夺走了。但是她知道这一刻迟早会到来，已经做好了相应的准备。她获得了健康咨询顾问的资格。现在（2035年）她69岁了，在一家医院工作，助手是（是的你猜对了）一个人工智能机器人。”

Thenthere’s “B-san,” an automaker employee who’s 36 now but (in the report’sscenario) will soon leave to start a company manufacturing driverless “guardmachines” to scare intruders away from private property. By 2035, age 55, he’sfilling orders from “more than 50 countries.”

还有B先生,是一个汽车公司职员，现在36岁，但是很快就要离开公司去开办公司，生产无人驾驶的“护卫机器”来赶跑侵入私人财产的入侵者。等到2035年他55岁时，他接收的订单来自50多个国家。

A newworld is being born as the old one dies. The cost of failure to adapt will beredundancy – and with life as long as it has become, that could mean a verylong twilight. Imagine, on the other hand, a full and productive life free ofoffice routine, office hours, office infringement on your private life.

随着旧世界消亡，新世界诞生了。适应失败的代价就是人浮于事，而且只要生活变成了这样，一生都会伴随着如此漫长的惨淡境况。不过另一方面想想，充实而富有创造力的生活，没有一成不变的办公室环境，没有办公室工作时间，没有侵犯你私人生活的工作。

“With smartphones and Skype andother communications devices,” says Tokyo University economist NoriyukiYanagawa, “work can be set free of time and space. Full-time attendance at theoffice will be unnecessary, making it easier (for example) to combine work withchild care and nursing.”

东京大学经济学者Noriyuki Yanagawa说：“有了智能手机、Skype和其他通讯设备，工作可以不受时间和空间控制。在办公室出全勤没有必要，（工作时间自由）使得大家更有时间照顾孩子、护理长辈。”

Youngpeople in 2035 will be astonished to hear that once upon a distant time peoplejoined companies out of college and, if possible, stayed for life. There willstill be companies, but not as we know them now and have long known them. Theoffice will be a base for the setting of goals and the launching of projects.The project once launched, you’re on your own – come back when it’s finished.And when it is, that as likely as not will terminate your involvement with thatparticular “employer.” It’ll be on to the next project – with another employer.

2035年的年轻人可能会很惊讶听到这样的事——在距今一段时间之前，人们在大学毕业后加入公司工作，有可能一待就是一辈子。那时候也许还会有公司存在，但不是像我们现在所了解的那种公司。办公室是制定目标、启动项目的根据地。项目一旦启动，你就有了自主权——当任务结束时再回来。而且，你不一定要在某个特定的“雇主”那里结束你的雇佣关系，而是在下一个项目里继续——由另一个雇主雇佣。

That’sone scenario; there are myriad others of course. Some companies even now arevisibly on their way to 2035 – Shukan Asahi cites the software developer Cybozuas an example. Its employees have nine work formats to choose from. How many ofyour work hours do you want to spend at home, and how many at the office?Choose the format that fits your lifestyle. If it fails to satisfy, you canadjust it next month. And if you want to take on a side job, you are free to doso – the one proviso that your outside work not be to Cybozu’s detriment.You’re not even obliged to report it to your boss.

这是一种场景。当然还有无数的场景。甚至现在已经有一些公司已经很明显在迈向2035年的先进方式。Shukan Asahi以软件开发商Cybozu为例，它的雇员有九种工作模式选择。你希望多少工时在家，多少在公司？选择符合你生活方式的模式。如果无法满足你，你下个月可以调整。如果你想做兼职，你不受限制。——唯一的限制是你的兼职不损害Cybozu的利益。你甚至不用汇报给你领导。


This is aforetaste and a model of things to come. Freedom to change implies anobligation to change – fast. For some it will be too fast. The old lifetimeemployment has no future, Shukan Asahi makes clear. It was secure but stifling.The air is fresher now, and will be fresher still in 20 years. As for security– “What’s that?” we can imagine a youngster asking in 2035.

这是一个预兆，是即将到来的实物的模型。改变的自由意味着改变的义务——快。对某些人来说太快了。过去的雇佣方式没有未来，Shukan Asahi明确到。旧有的雇佣方式是安全的，但是令人窒息。现在的空间更清新了，在未来20年内还会一直清新。至于安全——“那是什么？”我们可以想象，2035年的年轻人会问这个问题，



kibousha
The worldis always changing, but there's one thing that's always a constant, and that is"if you don't prepare to change, you're preparing to lose".

世界一直都在变化，但是有一件事情是永恒不变的，就是——如果你不准备好改变，你就准备着失败。

goldorak
Icertainly think it's a great way to approach work for the future and i wouldlove that to be the norm. But I just don't see a world without sweatshops andother low paid workers who need to work +40hours/week to make ends meet.
I thinkthe model described in this article can work in some industries and somecompanies but not for all. In all cases, i reckon it's always and will alwaysbe the market that decides, not the workers.

我绝对认为这是未来工作的一个极好的方式。我希望（工作时间和空间自由）成为常态。但是我无法预见这个世界没有血汗工厂，也无法预见不再有低收入人员一周工作40多小时来维持生计。我认为文章里写的这种模式可以在某些行业、某些公司运用，但是不是全部。无论在哪种情况下，一直都是，将来也都是市场决定的，而不是工人们决定的。

wanderlust
Whatabout managers, directors, executives? Put them on zero hour contracts andpart-time status?
Anothermajor issue is companies losing their institutional memory of contacts, pastbusiness relationships and knowledge of completed projects, as staff all come,go and leave, taking their memories with them.

那么经理、总监和高管们怎么办？让他们签订零工时合约？让他们成为兼职状态？
另一个主要问题在于，随着所有雇员来来往往，带走自己的记忆，公司会失去公司互相联系的记忆、过往的业务关系和已完成项目的知识。

lucabrasi
@wanderlust
But theway the world's going they won't "leave" with their memories, they'll"upload" them to a central computer or,eventually, directly to theirreplacements' brains.

但是随着世界发展的方式，这些员工不会带着他们的记忆“离开”，他们会将这些记忆“上载”到一个中央电脑里，或者直接传送到他们的接任人的大脑里。

kohakuebisu
In sometown halls, none of the new recruits are employed on the old conditions. Someevidence points to public workers being casualized faster than the privatesector. My town keeps putting out job adverts for p/t workers on 800 yen anhour.
Seehttp://synodos.jp/politics/16217. Search the page for "割合"
As forthis article, it's sensational, but the general trend is right.

在一些市政厅，没有任何一个新员工是按旧的工作条件招募进来的。一些证据证明政府公共部门的比私营企业“休闲化“地快。我家乡不断在发布招募兼职公认的广告，一小时800日元。
浏览http://synodos.jp/politics/16217，搜索“割合”的页面。
至于这篇文章，可能有点耸人听闻，但是总趋势是对的。

Reckless
don'tever forget the power of the people to revolt and take what they want by forcefrom the elites,,,

永远不要忘记人们反抗的力量，不要忘记他们如何用武力把他们想要的从精英手里夺过来。。

Alphaape
Change isgood, but not all change. There has to be a fine line between rapid automationand jobs. It's fine to automate manufacturing, but if it is done too much, youdisplace workers. Displaced workers who are only temp employees will have lessdisposable income to buy luxury items or basic items too. So no one will bebuying, or the price will be too high to afford them even though they areeasier to make because there isn't enough of a demand.

改变是好的，但并不是所有的改变都是好的。自动化生产是好的，但是如果过度自动化，就取代了工人的位置。流离失所的工人只能打零工，赚取更少的可支配收入，无法购买奢侈品，甚至也无法购买基本的必需品。这样，没人会购买东西，或者说他们的价格太高让人无法承担，虽然这些商品更容易生产了，但是没有购买需求。

dcog9065
This is aproblem, and one that the education system needs to accommodate. Most futureworkers will most likely be looking at multiple career changes throughout theirlives and constant training and education to stay competitive. A living wagewill also need to be introduced to avoid mass poverty

这是个问题，教育系统也需要调整适应。大多数未来的工人很有可能一生中一直持续关注大量的职业变化、持续培训和学习以保持富有竞争力。一份供活口的薪水还需要用来避免大面积贫困。

JapanVioletOCT. 03, 2016 - 12:41PM JST
Bla blabla. They tried to make everyone contract workers in North America years ago,it failed. Look at the state of policing and tell me contract workers are agood idea. Predictions of the future should be based on data, this is based onstupid.

Blablabla..他们想要让每个人都成为数年前北美的合同工，失败了。看看治安环境，告诉我合同工人是个好主意。对于未来的预估需要建立在数据的基础上，而这里（对未来的预估）建立在愚蠢之上。

LeighIvan Quintellio Wighton
Lifetimeemployment has been a pipe dream for quite some time. I'm almost 40 and I'd sayit all but died with my grandparents' generation. I don't think the"full-time employee" system need die. What does need to die here isthe notion that full-time equals cannot be fired or rid of. The employmentsystem in Japan that has been entrenched since the post war boom is basicallyjust an extension of the welfare system. There's no reward for workingefficiently, and there's no punishment for not doing so.

终身雇佣制是持续了很久的一个白日梦。我差不多40岁，我想说“终身雇佣制”在我祖父母的年代就消亡了。但我不认为“全职员工”体制需要消亡。我认为需要消亡的是这样一个概念，任务复制工作就是不会被炒。日本的雇佣体制在战后欣欣向荣，不过是福利制度的一个眼神。对于高效工作并没有额外奖励，对于低效也并没有惩罚。

billyhelper_33
I thinkthis news for the average japanese salaryman would create more suicides. a lotof them don't know what to do with the free time given to them to spend it withthe family, other than going to kyabakura and drinking.

我认为这条新闻会给日本的工薪阶层带来更多的自杀案。他们当中很多人不知道怎么把给他们的自由工作时间和家里人一起度过，而不是去吃东西或者喝酒。

[email protected]
Changingfor GOOD IS ONE THING, changing for unhappiness and uncertainity is another. Wehave to consider, Why had the human world come to this ???.

向好的方向转化是一件事，向不快乐、不稳定转化是另一件。我们需要想想，为什么人类世界变成这样？