中国崛起 美国衰退 英国无法忽视的现实 [英国媒体]

China is rising as the US declines. Britain can’t ignore this reality      

中国正在崛起，美国正在衰退，英国无法忽视的现实



Who would have guessed just three years ago that the David Cameron government would be the author of the boldest change in British foreign policy since the second world war? That is exactly what is now unfolding

三年前谁能猜到卡梅伦政府会做出自二战以来英国外交政策的最大胆的改变？这恰是现在正在展开的。

The process began this year when the British government announced it would join a Chinese initiative to help fund Asia’s enormous infrastructural needs. The UK became the first non-Asian country to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), after which more than 30 other countries joined, including Germany and France.

这一进程始于今年英国政府宣布加入由中国创始的旨在帮助亚洲庞大的基础设施需求的基金。英国成为首个加入亚投行的非亚洲国家。之后有30多个国家加入，包括德国和法国。

The United States opposed the decision because it saw the AIIB as a threat to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Britain has long been the US’s foreign policy shadow, so the decision to join the AIIB was the most significant act of independence since 1944, when John Maynard Keynes argued with America’s Dexter White at Bretton Woods over the new international financial order.

美国反对这一决定是因为它看到亚投行威胁到了国际货币基金和世界银行。英国长久以来一直是美国外交政策的影子，所以加入亚投行是自1944年，凯恩斯和美国的怀特在布雷顿森林争论后建立新的国际金融秩序以来最重大的独立行动。

The underlying thinking behind the British decision has since become clear. This was no flash in the pan. The key mover is the chancellor, George Osborne. His approach is based on a recognition of the profound changes in the global economy caused by China’s rise. At the time of the last state visit to Britain by a Chinese president, that of Hu Jintao in 2005, the UK economy was still slightly larger than that of China: today China’s GDP, by the most conservative measure, is over three times greater. We are fast becoming a minnow by comparison.

英国决策背后的潜在思维已经变得清晰，这不是昙花一现。关键的推动者是财务大臣—乔治.奥斯本。他的脉络是基于承认全球经济的深刻变化所致的中国崛起。上一次对英国进行国事访问的中国领导人是胡锦涛，在2005年，英国的经济还略高于中国：今天中国的GDP，按最保守的估计，超过3倍。比较起来，我们正在迅速成为一个不起眼的存在。

Since 2005, the financial crisis has rendered western growth rates close to zero, left their economies debt-ridden, and made the global economy ever more dependent on China for growth and capital. This is the new reality that imbues the thinking of any government, right or left. To their great credit, Osborne and his party have seized the nettle.

自2005年以来，金融危机使得西方的增长率接近于零，（增长率）离开了他们债务缠身的经济体。并使全球经济的增长更多地依赖于中国的增长和资金。这是新的现实，任何政府的考量都该权衡左右。出于良好的信誉，奥斯本和他的政党抓住了机遇。

The courageous decision to join the AIIB bestowed an advantage on the UK. From being a western laggard in its relationship with China, Britain moved to the front of the queue. Cameron’s claim that the UK could be “China’s best partner in the west” was not empty rhetoric, nor was the idea of a “golden decade” in Sino-British relations.

加入AIIB这勇敢的决策给英国带来优势。原来对华关系在西方相对落后，英国移动到了队列的前方。卡梅伦声称的：“英国要做中国在西方最好的伙伴”不是空洞的词藻，要不也不会有英中关系“黄金时代”的说法了。

President Xi Jinping’s visit this week is likely to see many new commercial agreements between the two countries. Britain’s much-neglected infrastructure requires huge capital investment, money it does not have. The willingness of the Chinese to invest in HS2, a new programme of nuclear reactors and the so-called “northern powerhouse” offers opportunities that otherwise would be impossible. At the same time, the City of London is the largest offshore market for the renminbi, which could be crucial to its long-term future. Xi’s visit will greatly enhance the growing cooperation between China and the UK and give further shape to what might be described as Britain’s pivot to China.

习近平主席本周访问期间很可能会看到许多两国间的商业合约，英国大量的受忽视的基础设施需要巨额的资本投资，但我们没钱。中国的投资意愿为高铁项目、新核反应堆项目和号称的“英格兰北部振兴计划”提供了机遇，否则都是无法实现的。同时伦敦成了最大的RMB离岸交易中心，这可能是它（英国）的未来前途的关键所在。习主席的此次访问极大的提高了中英两国间的合作，给予了进一步塑造的空间，这可以被描述成英对华关系的关键节点。

Of course, there will be those who object on the grounds that the UK, in its embrace of China, is moving away from the US. However, the situation is rather more complex. China is rising; the US is declining. By 2030 it is projected that the Chinese economy will be twice the size of the US’s. Can Britain, or any country, ignore this? Most countries in the world in varying degrees are pivoting to China just as once, in America’s heyday, they pivoted to the US. This is about the force of gravity, not the ivory tower.

当然，在英国总会有些人提出反对的理由：靠近中国、就是远离了美国。不管怎样，现状愈加复杂，中国正在崛起、美国正在衰退。到2030年，预计中国的经济规模将是美国的两倍，英国或任何国家能忽视这个吗？世界上大多数的国家不同程度上转向中国，一如在美国的全盛期他们转向了美国。这关乎于“重心引力”的作用，而非脱离现实的空中楼阁。

Take Australia, a very close and long-term American ally. China now accounts for over a quarter of its exports – far greater than America’s share. That, by default, means Australia has come to enjoy a much closer relationship with China: the Australians now talk of America as “our ally” and China as “our very good friend”.

拿澳大利亚来说，一直是美国长期十分紧密的盟友。中国现在占据其超过1/4的出口额，远超美国的份额。一般情况下这意味着澳大利亚开始因与中国有更密切的关系而受益：澳大利亚现在谈论美国为“我们的盟友”而中国为“我们的好朋友”。

Those who want to ignore or deny these realities are living in a world that is growing smaller and less important by the day. Countries either change with the world or are rendered insignificant and marginal by those changes. The British government has recognised this and deserves support for doing so.

那些想要忽视或者否认这些现实的人生活在一个愈发无足轻重、狭隘的世界里。国家随着世界的改变而改变，或者在大势变幻下变得微不足道和边缘化。英国政府已经认识到这些，所作所为理应得到支持。

Of course there is understandable unease. China is a very different proposition from the US. Whereas historically we share much with the latter, that is not true of China, which comes from entirely different historical and cultural roots. As a result there is much room for disagreement and misperception. There is a powerful presumption in the west that China should be like us: it never has been and never will be. We must learn to accept this and try to understand China on its own terms rather than ours.

当然，有些不安可以理解。相对美国来说，中国是个迥然不同的命题。但就历史而言，我们从后者（中国）身上获益匪浅，那对中国是不恰当的。来自完全不同的历史和文化根源，因此结果会有很多分歧和误解。在西方有一个顽固的思维：中国应该像我们一样。可它从未如此，也不将如此。我们必须学会接受现实，尝试去理解中国走自己的路而不是我们的。

We are uncomfortable about China’s human rights record which, by our values, certainly leaves a great deal to be desired. But even here there is a bigger picture. China has taken 600 million people out of poverty, arguably the single biggest global contribution to human rights over the last three decades. Over the same period China has become a much freer society. The nation is a work in progress. Its human rights record is not a reason to reject a much closer relationship with it.

我们对中国的那些人权记录感到不安，按照我们的价值观，肯定还有很多要求。但实际上这有更大的画面，中国已使6亿人摆脱了贫困。在过去的30年里，可以说是全球人权记录的最大贡献。同时中国已成为一个更加自由的社会，这也是正在发展中的工作。中国的人权记录不是我们拒绝发展和它更紧密关系的理由。

The new turn to China offers Britain the prospect of modernising our infrastructure in a way that otherwise would be inconceivable. It will create many new jobs. Above all it shows how Britain can prosper in the Asian-oriented and China-centric world rapidly unfolding before us. 

转向中国的新政让英国的前景基础设施的现代化有了希望，否则就是空想。它将创造许多新的就业机会。最重要的是它在我们面前展示出英国可以在以亚洲主导中国为中心的世界发展中繁荣起来。