【BBC】为什么自动化可能威胁到印度的发展 [英国媒体]

Why automation could be a threat to India’sgrowth

为什么自动化可能威胁到印度的发展

By Edd Gent
19 May 2017



作者：艾德·占特
2017年5月19日
 
Smart machines, robots, and other forms ofautomation could either be an economic poison or cure in a developing countrylike India – and this change will affect how businesses worldwide outsourcework.

智能机械、机器人和其他形式的自动化对于像印度这样的发展中国家的经济来说既可能是毒药也可能是解药——这个改变也会影响全世界的外包工作。

Ravi is one of thousands of Indian ITworkers who will lose their jobs this year, caught between a slump in India’spreviously booming IT industry and new technology threatening to replace humanworkers.

拉维是几千名将在今年失去工作的印度IT工作者中的一员，他们遭到了印度近来蓬勃发展的IT工业和新科技的双重打击，许多人的工作岗位受到了威胁。

Until last month he worked at CognizantTechnology Solutions – a firm headquartered in the US but with the bulk of itsworkforce in India. The company is under pressure to cut costs and is expectedto shed between 6,000 and 10,000 'underperformers' this year.

直到上个月，他还在为“认知科技方案”——一家总部设在美国但大部分劳动力都在印度的公司。这家公司被迫要削减开支，计划在本年度解雇6000到10000名“表现不佳的员工”。

Market volatility and rising protectionismin countries like the USA, where much of India’s IT outsourcing work comesfrom, saw Cognizant’s revenue grow at its slowest pace in two decades lastyear, and its peers in the Indian IT industry are in the same boat.

在市场动荡并且贸易保护主义抬头的国家，例如美国——大部分印度IT外包工作都来源于此，像“认知科技方案”这样的公司在去年的增长速度放慢到二十年来最低，其在印度的同行公司们也都面临相同的困境。

Software can carry out routine IT supportwork and repetitive back office tasks – the very tasks global companiesoriginally outsourced to India

软件可以执行日常IT支持工作以及重复性后台工作——这些正是国际公司曾经外包给印度的工作

But at the same time, rapidly improvingautomation technology is allowing software to carry out routine IT support workand repetitive back office tasks previously performed by humans – the verytasks global companies originally outsourced to India to take advantage ofcheaper labour.

但同时，迅速发展的自动化科技让软件能够执行通常由人类完成的日常IT支持工作以及重复性后台工作——这些正是国际公司曾经外包给印度的工作，通过利用印度的廉价劳动力获利。

In February, Cognizant’s CFO said it would“aggressively” employ automation to “optimise” its services. Meanwhile, India’sthird-largest IT firm, Infosys, said automation allowed it to shift 9,000workers from low-skill jobs to more advanced projects, like machine learningand artificial intelligence, last year. Its competitor Wipro redeployed 3,200in 2016, and predicts it will move another 4,500 this year.

在二月份，“认知科技方案”的首席财务官宣布该公司将“积极地”引入自动化来“优化”服务。同时，印度的第三大IT公司“Infosys”宣布自动化使其能够将9000名员工从低技术含量工作岗位转移至更先进的项目上，例如机器自我学习和人工智能。去年，该公司的竞争对手“Wipro”在2016年调整了3200个工作岗位，并预测今年还将调整4500个岗位。

Yet this has been accompanied by asignificant slowing in hiring. IT body Nasscom’s annual review predicted a20-to-25% reduction in jobs in the industry over the next three years.

然而，伴随这些改变的是明显的招聘速度放缓。印度全国软件和服务企业协会的年度报告预测在未来三年科技领域将减少20-25%的工作岗位。

“Cognizant has not conducted any layoffs,”a Cognizant spokesperson said. “New machines and technologies are about helpingcut costs, improve efficiencies, and increase sophistication in building anddelivering services. They are not about altogether replacing the human element,but about elevating the role people play and the value they bring to theirroles.”

“‘认知科技方案’没有解雇任何员工，” 该企业的发言人说。“新设备和科技有助于减少开支，提高效率，以及让设立和传递服务更加成熟。这不是要取代人类的角色，而是要提升人类的角色，并且提升这些角色的价值。”

But it can be hard to pinpoint exactlywhose jobs have been lost to automation. Researchers in the UK, for example,have shown that some roles in today’s global economy are more at risk than others.

但是很难确定究竟谁的工作被自动化机器取代了。例如，英国的研究者们展示了在现今的全球经济中，有些岗位比其他的更不稳定。

Ravi, whose name has been changed, workedas a software tester – a role particularly vulnerable to automated takeover."In testing, already it has been introduced and it's coming in very fast,”he says. "If a job requires four manual testers, automation can reduce itto one.”

拉维——该名字为化名，作为一名软件测试师，他的工作尤其容易被自动化机器取代。“在测试领域，自动化科技已经被引入，并且发展迅猛，”他说。“如果一项测试传统上需要四名测试人员，使用自动化技术的话就只需要一个人。”



International companies have longoutsourced IT tasks to call centres in India to save money - but now thosehuman centres may be replaced by robots (Credit: Alamy Stock Photo)

国际公司很久以前就把IT工作外包给印度的客服中心来节省成本——但现在这些客服人员可能会被机器人代替（版权：Alamy Stock Photo）

He’s now job hunting, but saysopportunities for the kind of work he was doing before are limited and he willprobably have to adapt: take a course on automated software testing and thentry to secure a position. He worries this may be a repeating pattern.

现在他正在找工作，但是他说他以前从事的工作已经很少需要人了，现在他可能要去接受使用自动化软件进行测试的培训，然后再找一份对口的工作。他担心这种情况会不断重复出现。

"Maybe after five years some newtechnologies are coming and we have to learn those, too,” he says.

“或许再过五年又有什么新科技出现，然后我们又要开始从头学习，”他说。

India’s IT weak spot?

印度的IT弱点？

Since the 1990s Indian firms have carriedout back office tasks, and IT services like data entry, running call centresand testing software for foreign companies at cut-price rates by throwing cheaplabour at them. But as machines become adept at this repetitive, rule-basedwork, the low-skill jobs – where the bulk of Indian IT workers are employed –are the most at risk.

从上世纪90年代开始，印度公司开始低价为外国公司分包后台工作和IT服务，例如数据录入、呼叫中心和软件测试等，大量廉价劳动力从事着这些工作。但是当机器能够执行这些重复性、受规则指导的任务时，这些低技术含量的工作——而且是大部分印度IT工作者主要的工作——便处于将被取代的危机中了。

“It’s been happening for the last two orthree years in an accelerated fashion,” says Gopinathan Padmanabhan, head ofinnovation at IT company Mphasis. “It’s a reality you can't shy away from.”

“在过去两到三年内，这种情况正在加速发生，”“Mphasis” IT公司的创新总监戈皮那坦·帕马纳班说道。“这是你无法回避的事实。”

This shift will go hand-in-hand with newopportunities in emerging areas – data science, artificial intelligence and bigdata – but these will require new skills and probably fewer employees.

这个转变将会同新兴领域的新机会——数据科技、人工智能和大数据一起发生——但是这将需要新的技能，以及可能更少的工作人员。

"They will have to find new roles andtrain themselves to become relevant in the new age,” says Padmanabhan. “Andwe're not talking about too far into the future… the next three to five years.”

“他们会为自己找到新的角色，并且通过学习改变自己以适应新时代，”帕马纳班说。“我们并不是在谈论遥远的将来，我们说的是未来三到五年的事。”

Of course, losing jobs to automation is aconcern across the developed world. But India’s case is unique.

当然，发展中国家都担心工作岗位会被自动化科技取代。但是印度的例子非常独特。

World Bank data estimates 69% of today’sjobs in India are threatened by automation

世界银行的数据估计现今在印度69%的工作岗位受到自动化科技的威胁

A stable job at one of the big IT companiesis a major aspiration for many Indians, which probably explains why fears oftechnological unemployment have featured so prominently in newspapers here inrecent months.

在一家大型IT公司找到一个稳定的工作岗位是很多印度人的主要人生目标，这或许解释了为什么对科技岗位裁员的恐惧在最近几个月的报纸上一直处在最醒目的位置。

But despite contributing 9.3% of thecountry’s GDP, according to Nasscom, the IT industry only employs 3.7 millionof the nation’s roughly half a billion working adults. So how big of a threatis it actually to the Indian workforce?

但是除了每年贡献9.3%的GDP，根据印度全国软件和服务企业协会的消息，IT工业370万从业者只占印度将近5亿劳动人口很小一部分。那么这对印度的劳动力是多大的威胁呢？

World Bank data estimates 69% of today’sjobs in India are threatened by automation. And India isn’t alone: China’sfigure was 77% and other developing countries also scored highly.

世界银行的数据估计现今在印度69%的工作岗位受到自动化科技的威胁。而且印度并不孤单，中国有77%的岗位处于风险之中，其他发展中国家的数据也都居高不下。

India is already struggling to create jobsamid rapid growth. Its working-age population increased by 300 million between1991 and 2013, according to UN figures, but the number of people employed onlyrose by 140 million.

印度已经努力在飞速发展中创造新的工作岗位。根据联合国的报告，印度适龄工作人口在1991年至2013年间增长了3亿，但在岗人员数量只增加了1.4亿。

Still, robots replacing jobs en masse isunrealistic in the medium term in India – or anywhere else – but the effectsare already being felt. Last September, Indian textiles giant Raymond said itwould replace 10,000 jobs with robots over three years.

从中期来看，在印度用机器人全面取代人工还不现实——在别处也一样——但压力已经能够感受到了。去年九月，印度纺织巨头Raymond宣布其10000个工作岗位将在三年内被机器人取代。

Union leader Vinodh Kumar works at BMW’sfactory in Chennai – India’s automotive hub. His facility isn’t in danger ofautomation, but he knows union leaders at Hyundai’s plant where the entire bodyshop and most of the paint shop was automated.

工会领袖维诺德·库玛在金奈——印度的汽车中心——的宝马汽车工厂工作。他的公司还没有被自动化威胁到，但是他知道现代汽车工厂的整个车身车间和大部分喷漆车间都已经自动化了。

“The majority of the body shop employeeslost their jobs,” he said. “The permanent employees they tried to relocate, butthe contract labourers and the trainees lost their jobs.”
“车身车间的绝大部分工人们都失业了，”他说。“终身雇员们会得到换岗安置，但是合同工和实习生都被遣散了。”

Other sectors at risk includepharmaceuticals, food and beverages, logistics and security.

其他处于风险中的部门包括制药、食品和饮料、后勤和保安。


 
Repetitive, labourious tasks, like thebrick-laying seen here in Uttar Pradesh, are especially at risk of beingreplaced with smart machines (Credit: Alamy Stock Photo)

重复性、劳动力密集型工作，例如图中北方邦的砌砖工作，尤其可能被智能机械所取代（版权：AlamyStock Photo）

Mohandas Pai, former CFO of Infosys, saysit is unlikely to impact high-skill jobs like architects or high-qualitycoders, or even lower-end jobs in the service industry like restaurant staffand hairdressers.

莫汉达斯·派，Infosys的前首席财务官，说高技术工种——例如建筑师或者高质量程序员，或者服务业中的低端工种——例如餐馆服务员和理发师不太可能会受到冲击。

"The fat middle is at threat, which isrule-based work. Like work in banks, work in offices, work in factories,” hesays.

“中间的大部分人会受到威胁，因为他们的工作基本是有规则可循的。例如银行工作、办公室工作和工厂工作，”他说。

‘Hollowing out’ the middle class

“挖出”中间阶层

The World Bank’s 2016 World DevelopmentReport noted a global trend towards “hollowing out” of the labour force. Astechnology streamlines routine tasks, middle-skill jobs like clerical workersand machine operators decline while both high-skill and low-skill onesincrease.

世界银行的2016年世界发展报告指出，当前全球都存在一种劳动力“挖出”的趋势。当科技流线的日常工作、中等技能工作——例如医护人员和机器操作人员的数量减少时，高端和低端工作岗位正在增加。

And in developing nations like India, thatcan be a huge problem.

在类似印度的发展中国家，这会变成一个大麻烦。

"Those middle-skill jobs havetraditionally been the path out of poverty,” says World Bank senior economistIndhira Santos. “So that polarisation into the labour market could translateinto a polarisation of society and income.”

“那些中等技能工作传统上是脱贫之道，”世界银行高级经济学家英迪拉·桑托斯说。“所以劳动力市场上的两极分化会变成社会和收入的两极分化。”

This trend isn’t down to technology alone –globalisation and urbanisation contribute. But pulling away “the ladder to themiddle class”, as the report puts it, could be particularly damaging in adeveloping country like India.

这个趋势不仅是由于科技发展——全球化和城市化也加剧了问题。但是撤掉“通向中产阶级的梯子”——该报告所语——会对例如印度这样的发展中国家造成特别的伤害。

After all, there is a reason why companiesare turning to new technologies. “Automation is an imperative to improvecompetitiveness, quality and efficiency,” says CEO of Siemens’ India SunilMathur. That helps compete against cheap imports, boost exports and increasesdomestic demand and therefore jobs, he says.

毕竟，企业们引入新科技是有原因的。“自动化是提升竞争力、质量和效率的迫切要求，”西门子印度公司首席执行官苏尼尔·马图尔说。这有助于击败便宜的进口产品，刺激出口并扩大内需，从而增加工作岗位，他说。

Samay Kohli, co-founder of home-grownwarehouse robotics company Grey Orange, agrees. India lags well behind thedeveloped world on labour productivity, which acts as a major handbrake ongrowth.

萨梅·科利，印度本土仓库机器人公司“灰橘子”的共同创始人之一，同意这一观点。印度工人的生产率大大落后于发达国家，这个问题像刹车一样阻碍着经济发展。

“You have to automate to be globallycompetent,” he says. “If we don't improve our infrastructure, our productivitywe will not have a chance to compete globally.”

“你必须得实行自动化来参与国际竞争，”他说。“如果我们不升级基础设施，我们的生产率会让我们根本没机会参与全球竞争。”

The Butler robot can pick up to 600 itemsan hour. That eclipses the 100 items a human worker can manage

“管家”机器人每小时可以拾取600个物件，这使得每小时拾取100个物件的人工速度相形见绌

Grey Orange builds ‘Butler’ robots thatfetch and store products and ‘Sorters’ that automatically scan and sortpackages in the warehouses of e-commerce and logistics giants like Flipkart,Jabong and DTDC.

灰橘子公司制造的“管家”机器人可以提取和储藏货物，“分类者”可以自动扫描和分类仓库中的包裹。它们可以为网络购物和物流巨头Flipkart、Jabong和DTDC等公司提供服务。

Kohli says the Butler can pick up to 600items an hour. That eclipses the 100 items a human worker can manage –invaluable efficiency in a country where supply chain costs are double those ofWestern countries.

科利说“管家”每小时可以拾取600个物件。这使得每小时拾取100个物件的人工速度相形见绌——这样的效率对一个供应链成本比西方国家高出一倍的国家来说具有不可估量的价值。

Increasing worker productivity could stifleemployment, but Kohli claims they are simply filling gaps. Annual staffturnover in warehousing is 300%, he says. Rural Indians come looking for betterearnings, but onerous targets, low wages and urban living costs mean theyrarely last long. But robots are harder to sway.

增加生产率可能会抑制就业率，但是科利声称他们正在填补空缺。仓库每年的人员流动率是300%，他说。印度农民希望得到更高的工资，但是繁重的工作、微薄的薪水以及城市生活开销让他们很少能在仓库工作很长时间。但是机器人不会跳槽。

Kohli claims job numbers in theirfacilities have stayed level, but attrition has reduced.

科利说他们企业的工作岗位数量很稳定，但是人员流失减少了。

“This labour is just brute labour,” hesays. “Even though they're doing jobs, they never get out of poverty. When theystart using these kinds of collaborative robots in the mix they work better,more efficiently and are happier with their jobs."

“这些工人都是力工，”他说。“就算他们有份工作，他们也没法脱贫。如果他们开始用这种协作机器人，他们会干得更好，更有效率，更为自己的工作感到开心。”

Heads of IBM Research India Sriram Raghavanagrees that in a developing country like India, automation normally fills gapsrather than replacing people. India has 330,000 fewer doctors than the WHO’sminimum recommendation, but Raghavan says automation can help plug this kind oftalent shortage.

IBM印度研究中心的领头人斯里拉姆·拉贾万也同意这一观点，认为在类似印度这样的发展中国家，自动化通常是填补空缺，而不是抢走岗位。印度比世界卫生组织的最低要求还缺少33万名医生，但是拉贾万说自动化科技可以帮忙补上这个人才空缺。

The plight of IT workers like Ravi, though,demonstrates that automation is already encroaching on areas without gaps to befilled. Pai says India has the luxury of time compared to developed countries,as labour will remain cheaper than automation for a decade, and huge unmetdemand for infrastructure and services can produce lots of jobs.

然而，IT工作者拉维遇到的困境则表明自动化开始侵入没有空缺的领域。派说印度相比发达国家还有宝贵的时间，因为劳动力仍会比自动化设备便宜十年，大量不达标的基础设施和服务仍能创造大量工作岗位。

But the World Bank report highlights anever-accelerating race between skills and technology and that countries likeIndia need to act now to future-proof their populations’ capabilities.

但是世界银行的报告强调技能与科技之争正不断加速，类似印度这样的国家必须马上行动来确保其劳动人口在未来也具有“工作能力”。

Future-proofing jobs from robots

保证未来的工作不会落入机器人之手

With automation taking on the routine tasksat the heart of today’s workplace, the jobs of the future will focus on skillslike critical thinking, collaboration and creativity.

今天职场的核心日常工作都会被自动化夺走，未来的工作更注重批判性思维、合作和创造力等技能。

The jobs of the future will focus on skillslike critical thinking, collaboration and creativity

未来的工作更注重批判性思维、合作和创造力等技能

India’s education system has a reputationfor learning by rote and Indian Institute of Technology Madras engineeringprofessor Ashok Jhunjhunwala agrees most institutions aren’t adequatelypreparing young people.

印度的教育系统以强迫学生死记硬背着称，印度理工学院马德拉斯分校的工程专业教授阿索克·尊尊瓦拉对大部分印度院校并没有教给学生足够的知识表示同意。

But things are changing. He leads agovernment-sponsored pilot where professors from leading colleges use virtuallabs to teach students at other colleges to take on-the-job training moreseriously. And start-ups are introducing extra-curricular robotics classesteaching problem-solving skills vital for future jobs.

但这一切正在发生改变。他正在领导一个政府监管的试点项目，让来自顶尖学院的教授通过虚拟实验室来向其他学校的学生进行授课，这使得在职教育更加受到重视。初学者还被推荐课外机器人课程，学习解决问题的技巧，以便增加未来求职竞争力。



India is trying to future-proof job loss byacquainting students and workers to changing tech - workers are seen here in aBangalore automation factory (Credit: Alamy Stock Photo)

印度努力通过让学生和工作人员了解新科技来确保未来的工作岗位——图为在班加罗尔自动化工厂的工作人员（版权：Alamy Stock Photo）

Most importantly, he says the country’syoung population is sharp, adaptable, and future-oriented.

更重要的是，他说这个国家的年轻一代更敏锐、更具有适应能力，并且更加以未来为导向。

"If automation displaces one thingthey move to another,” he says. “They are recognising the need to continuallyupskill.”

“如果自动化取代一个岗位，他们就转向另一个，”他说。“他们认识到不断提升专业能力的重要性。”

IBM’s Rahavan agrees: "Then it’s lessabout a race, but getting people on a journey. Maybe the skill profile changesevery five years rather than every 10, but at the same time technology ishelping navigate that landscape."

IBM的拉贾万表示同意：“这就不再是竞争，而是让人们处于一个过程之中。或许技能每五年而不是十年就会改变，但同时科技也在引领人们走向那片风景。“

That may sound like blue-sky thinking, butin February, Microsoft and LinkedIn announced Project Sangam – a programmeproviding LinkedIn training, with progress automatically added to profiles socompanies can shortlist candidates, as well as personalised jobrecommendations.

这听起来或许太天马行空了，但是在二月份，微软和领英宣布了Sangam计划——该项目提供领英培训，并且自动将技能添加到个人信息中，这样公司们可以挑选中意的求职人，也可以为个人提供岗位推荐。

Resistance is futile

反抗是无效的

Jhunjhunwala thinks India’s developmentchallenges are so large, it needs all the help it can get. And fightingautomation is futile anyway.

尊尊瓦拉认为印度面临的发展难题如此之大，以至于需要所有可能得到的帮助。然而反抗自动化科技是无效的。

"The changes going on in the world,including automation, are not something decided by us – but it's going tohappen," he says. "We don’t want to be passive and let automationimpact us. We want to develop something with this automation."

“在全世界发生的改变，包括自动化，不是我们能够决定得了的——但改变正在发生，”他说。“我们不想消极应对，最后被自动化冲击。我们想要利用自动化改变一些事情。”

And in the race between technology andskills – as India tries to keep pace with the very technology that helpedlaunch its economy on the world stage – he thinks the country has a secretweapon: a deeper value placed on education than in the West. After all, thepinnacle of India’s ancient caste system was the educated Brahmin priest – notthe Kshatriya warrior.

在科技和技能的竞赛中——印度努力追赶能使其在国际经济舞台上大展拳脚的科技的发展速度——他认为这个国家拥有一个秘密武器：相对于西方而言，印度更尊敬教育。毕竟，在古代印度种姓制度中占据最高位的是婆罗门祭司——而不是刹帝利武士。

"It's part of our Indianheritage," says Pai. "India is the only civilisation in the worldwhere the educated gurus were placed on the totem pole higher than the king. Inall other nations, soldiers and might ruled and knowledge bowed to the mighty.In India, knowledge is above the might of the state."

“这是我们印度的一个宝贵遗产，”派说。“在世界上，只有印度这样一个文明将精神导师放在比国王更高的位置上。在其他所有国家，士兵和强权统治一切，知识必须向权力低头。在印度，知识高于权力。”