英媒：中美不再哥两好 [英国媒体]

Donald Trump andXi Jinping are not so friendly after all

英媒：中美不再哥两好



AFTER their first meeting in Florida in April, President Donald Trump enthusedabout his Chinese opposite number, Xi Jinping: “We had a great chemistry, notgood but great.” But as the two leaders prepare for a second meeting, this timein Hamburg at a gathering on July 7th and 8th of the G20 group of countries,the sweetness of their citrus summit has turned sour.

自从中国和川普于4月在佛罗里达举行第一次会面后，川普对中国赞不绝口：“我们之间产生了绝妙的化学反应，不只是好，是绝妙。”但是，当双方准备在7月7号到8号举办的G20峰会上进行第二次会面时，两人的“蜜月期”已经开始消退了。

Over the past fortnight, in a calculated escalation of criticism, America’sState Department downgraded China to the lowest ranking in its annual report onhuman trafficking. Then the Treasury said it would impose sanctions on theChina-based Bank of Dandong because, it claimed, the bank was helping NorthKorea’s government to finance a ballistic-missile programme. Next the StateDepartment approved the sale of arms worth $1.4bn to Taiwan, which China saysis a mere province of the People’s Republic (the sale must still be approved byAmerica’s Congress).

在过去的两周里随着批评之声与日俱增，美国国务院在年度报告中针对中国人口贩卖的情况将其降级至最低等级。另外，美国财政部也宣布对中国的丹东银行实行制裁，因为据称该银行曾为北朝鲜政府的导弹计划提供资金。紧接着，美国国务院通过了14亿美元的对台军售（这必须经过美国国会同意），而中方始终认为台湾是中国的一部分。

Three days later, the Pentagon sent a destroyer on a “freedom of navigation”operation within 12 nautical miles of Triton, an island in the South China Sea.It is part of the Paracel archipelago, which is occupied by China but claimedby Vietnam. This was only 39 days after the Trump administration’s first suchoperation, an unusually brief interval, causing China’s foreign ministry tocomplain about “a serious political and military provocation” (as China seesit, waters less than 12 nautical miles from Triton’s shore count as itssovereign territory).

三天之后，五角大楼派出一艘驱逐舰在南中国海中建岛的12海里范围内进行“自由航行”演习，该岛位于中国管辖的西沙群岛，但越南则称是属于他们的。这次演习距川普政府的上一次类似行动仅仅间隔39天，中国外交部针对如此不寻常的密集演习表示抗议：“这是一次严重的政治和军事挑衅”（中方认为中建岛12海里范围内都属于中国领土）。

Then, on July 4th, North Korea—the main source of America’s frustration withChina—reminded the two big powers of the potential dangers of inaction. Thegovernment in Pyongyang claimed it had successfully tested an intercontinentalballistic missile that American experts reckon is capable of hitting Alaska(see article). One dayearlier Mr Trump had called Mr Xi to tell him that, if China would not ratchetup pressure on North Korea, America would. The recent steps taken by hisadministration seem designed to influence Mr Xi not by persuasion (which hasgot nowhere) but by sanctions and coercion.

然后到了7月4日，北朝鲜这一中美关系的主要障碍，又一次提醒了两个大国在未来互动中可能产生的摩擦。平壤方面宣称，朝鲜已经成功试射了能攻击美国阿拉斯加的洲际弹道导弹。而一天之前，川普还与中国通过电话，表示如果中国不给朝鲜试压，美国就会行动。从最近美国政府的举措来看，川普正试图以制裁和胁迫来影响中国，而非通过沟通协商（徒劳之举）。

The surprise is not that the honeymoon has come to an end but that there wasever one at all. The interlude depended on wishful thinking by both sides.China saw Mr Trump as just one more American president who, though he mightroar anti-Chinese rhetoric on the campaign trail, would be constrained by theresponsibilities of office. Mr Trump’s penchant for personal (rather thaninstitutional) power and for installing family members in the White House, alsopleased Chinese leaders: this is the sort of thing they are familiar with athome. And when Mr Xi demanded that Mr Trump endorse America’s traditionalone-China policy and Mr Trump duly obliged, the Chinese concluded that all theyhad to do was sit tight and Mr Trump would cave in. All this seems to have ledChina to overestimate its influence over Mr Trump.

令人奇怪的并不是蜜月期已经结束，而是中美之间竟然存在过蜜月期。这段短暂和平的存在是因为双方打着各自的如意算盘。中国方面只将特朗普视为另一任美国总统，尽管他在竞选阶段大肆叫嚣反华言论，但终将受制于总统的职责。特朗普总统对个人权力而非制度权力的痴迷以及将家庭成员安排进白宫任职都使中国感到满意，毕竟特朗普的这些做法中国非常熟悉。中国要求特朗普总统重申美国政府一贯以来的坚持一个中国的立场时，特朗普也如期地表示支持。于是中国方面断定中方已稳坐钓鱼台，只待特朗普让步。这导致中方乐观估计了它对特朗普的影响力。

Mr Trump mayhave miscalculated, too, perhaps out of naivety. He seems to have thought hecould persuade Mr Xi to be tough enough to force the government in Pyongyang tothe negotiating table. But though China has stepped up sanctions, it isreluctant to do anything that it believes might threaten the stability of NorthKorea’s regime. America’s understanding of how far Mr Xi will go may well havebeen clouded by a lack of senior appointees at the top of the State Department,including someone responsible for overseeing East Asian affairs.

特朗普总统对形势也有着错误甚至是天真的预期。他似乎认为他能够说服中国对朝鲜政府采取强硬措施使其重返谈判桌。尽管中国对朝鲜制裁升级，但中方不愿采取任何可能威胁朝鲜政权稳定的措施。美国国务院高层职位空缺，使其看不清中国对朝鲜问题的态度。例如，美国至今未任命副国务卿，使得东亚事务由一位外交官全权负责。

Still talking,at least

至少，仍然对话

The end of thehoneymoon does not mean that China and America are at daggers drawn. A recentphone call between the presidents suggests they are still prepared to worktogether on North Korea. But the timing of America’s China-riling moves wassignificant. They came on the eve of the G20 summit, overshadowing what Mr Xihopes will be an opportunity to bask in global acclaim by again proclaiming hissupport for globalisation and for the Paris climate treaty, which Mr Trump hassaid America will abandon.

中美蜜月期的结束不意味着双方就剑拔弩张。中美两国元首的最近一次通话表明，中美双方仍准备联合解决朝鲜问题。但是美国惹恼中国的时机意味深长。中国希望借G20峰会之机再次强调支持全球化和巴黎气候协议，以期获得广泛赞誉；然而特朗普在G20峰会前夜赶到，并宣布退出巴黎气候协定，使其希望落空。

They also came just before the deadline (on July 16th) that America and Chinaset themselves to implement a list of trade measures that were promised at thecitrus summit, such as letting foreign credit-rating agencies into China. Mostimportant, the end of the honeymoon comes just as the administration is againthreatening to impose tariffs on steel and other imports into America, whichwould affect China more than most. The risks of a trade dispute are rising,even as mutual rancour grows over North Korea, Taiwan and the South China Sea.

中美元首于庄园会晤期间达成了一揽子贸易协议，最迟不晚于7月16日实施，其中包括中方允许国外信用评级机构入华。在协议到期前夕，美方又激怒了中方。特朗普政府再次胁迫上调钢铁等商品的进口关税，此举将对中国产生巨大影响，中美蜜月期因此终止。中美贸易摩擦的风险正在加剧，双方在朝鲜、台湾以及中国南海问题上的积怨日益加深。