“内战”在即，比特币大幅波动 [英国媒体]

Bitcoin swings as civil war looms

“内战”在即，比特币大幅波动

By Leo Kelion
Technology desk editor
20 July 2017



Image caption
Bitcoin's value has dipped and soared as opinion about whether it will split has shifted

图片说明：随着比特币是否要进行“硬分叉”的舆论忽左忽右，比特币的价格也像坐过山车一样忽高忽低。

The value of the virtual currency Bitcoin has always been volatile.
Even so, there has been particular turbulence in recent days as fears of a "civil war" among its adherents first grew and then subsided, although they have not gone away altogether.

虚拟货币比特币的价格一直不稳定。尽管如此，由于其用户对于“内战”的担忧由开始的加剧到逐渐减轻，然而他们并未完全消失，但最近几日比特币的价格还是出现了剧烈的动荡。

On Sunday, the value of one bitcoin dropped to about $1,863 (￡1,430) before bouncing back to $2,402 on Wednesday, according to data from the news site CoinDesk - still some way off a June high of $3,019.

根据新闻网站CoinDesk的数据，周日一枚比特币的价格跌至约1,863美元(1,430英镑)，随后在周三反弹至2,402美元，但仍远低于6月创下的3019美元的最高价位。

What's at stake?

有什么风险?

Bitcoin risks becoming a victim of its success.

比特币有可能成为其成功的牺牲品。

The popularity of the financial technology has caused transactions to be processed slower, with some users complaining of having to wait three days or more for confirmation of trades when the backlog was at its worst, in May.

虚拟货币这一金融技术的普及导致交易的处理速度变慢，一些用户抱怨，在今年5月的待处理工作最繁重的时候，他们不得不等待3天或更长时间才能确认交易。

Moreover, fees have also risen, hitting a high of $5 per transaction at the start of June.

此外，交易费用也在上涨，6月初的单笔交易费用高达5美元。

That makes it too costly to justify its use for some purchases, such as buying a pint of lager in a Bitcoin-accepting pub.

这使得一些购买行为的发生成本太高了，比如在一个接受比特币的酒吧里买一品脱啤酒。

There are ways around the problem, but the cryptocurrency's community has been split over which solution to adopt.

有很多方法可以解决这个问题，但是虚拟货币社区在解决方案上存在分歧。

The risk is that Bitcoin could effectively split in two, with one type becoming incompatible with another, ultimately undermining confidence in the project altogether.

（硬分叉的）风险在于，比特币实际上可能会分成两种不同的支链，其中一种与另一种不兼容，最终这会削弱人们对整个比特币市场的信心。

In simple terms, why does this problem exist?

简单地说，为什么存在这个问题？

The issue is that Bitcoin's underlying technology has an in-built constraint: the ledger of past transactions, known as the blockchain, can have only 1MB of data added to it every 10 minutes.

问题在于，比特币的底层技术有一个内在的限制：过去交易的账簿，即区块链，只能每10分钟进行一次记账，以增加1MB的数据。

To understand why, it's helpful to first understand how Bitcoin works.

要理解这里面的原因，首先要了解比特币系统是如何运行的。

To authenticate Bitcoin transactions, a procedure called "mining" takes place, which involves volunteers' computers racing to solve difficult mathematical problems.

为了验证比特币交易，一种名为“挖掘”的程序产生了，这种程序使用志愿者的计算机竞相解决复杂的数学问题。

For each problem solved, one block of bitcoins is processed. As a reward, the successful miners are given newly generated bitcoins.

每一个问题被解决了，就会有一个区块的比特币被创造出来。作为回报，这些成功的矿工获得了新创造出的比特币。

An updated copy of the blockchain database is then copied to all the computers involved in the validation process, which are referred to as "nodes".

然后将区块链数据库的更新副本复制到参与验证过程的所有计算机，这些计算机被称为“节点”。

Bitcoin originally did not have the 1MB/10min blockchain limit, but the feature was added to help defend the technology against denial of service (DoS) attacks, which might overwhelm the blockchain by flooding it with tiny transactions.

比特币最初没有1MB / 10min区块链的限制，但为了帮助抵御DoS服务的攻击，才增加了这一限制。这可能使得存在大量小额交易的区块链不堪重负。



Image caption
Buying bitcoins has become expensive in itself

图片说明：比特币的购买本身已经非常昂贵

Mining, by the way, has become a big business in its own right, with some companies investing in huge "farms" of computers dedicated to the activity. Several of the biggest are based in China.

顺便说一下, 采矿本身已经独立地成为一项重大业务。有一些公司投资购买超大电脑“组”，以专门从事采矿活动。其中一些最大的公司总部设在中国。

So, why not just raise the limit?

那么，为什么不提高限制呢?

Many of the miners have, in fact, favoured the so-called Bitcoin Unlimited solution.

事实上，许多矿工都青睐所谓的“比特币无限解决方案”。

They said that allowing them to increase the 1MB block size would speed up transactions and reduce transactions fees.

他们说，这一方案允许他们增加1MB区块，从而加速交易并减少交易费用。

But this could also make mining more expensive, and impractical for small "mom and pop" operations, leaving it under the control of a handful of large corporations.

但这同时也可能使采矿变得更加昂贵，同时对小企业来说变得不切实际，并使其受控于一些大型企业。

That is because more processing power would be needed to verify transactions.

这是因为提高限制需要更高的处理能力来验证交易。

Furthermore, additional data bandwidth and storage space would be needed to transmit and store the blockchain, since it would become much bigger.

此外，因为区块链会变得更大，所以还需要额外的数据带宽和存储空间来传输和存储区块链。

Critics also say the move would make Bitcoin more vulnerable to hackers.

批评人士还表示，此举将使比特币更容易受到黑客攻击。

Moreover, some people are concerned that giving the miners power to vary the block size might undermine the principle of Bitcoin being decentralised, with no equivalent to a central bank running the show.

此外，一些人担心赋予矿工权力来改变区块大小可能会破坏比特币不同于中央银行的运作方式——去中心化的原则。

What is the rival plan?

竞争对手的计划是什么？

Some software developers have favoured reorganising the format of Bitcoin transactions to make the blockchain more efficient.

一些软件开发者倾向于重组比特币交易的格式，以使区块链更加高效。

Specifically, they propose relocating " transaction signatures" - which unlock bitcoins so they can be spent - from within the blockchain to a separate file transmitted alongside it.

具体来说，他们建议将“交易签名”——释放比特币的行为，比特币被释放后才能够被支出——从区块链中转移到另一个同区块链同时存在的单独文件中。

Doing so should make it possible to process transactions at double the current rate.

这样做可以将处理交易的速度提高一倍。

And as an added benefit, "node" computers could save on storage space by opting not to keep records of the oldest signatures.

另外一个好处是，“节点”计算机可以通过选择不保存最古老的签名的记录来节省存储空间。

This scheme is known as Segregated Witness, or Segwit.

这一计划被称为“隔离见证”，即“Segwit”。 

However, critics say it would deliver only a temporary respite while adding an extra level of complexity.

然而，批评人士表示，这只会带来暂时的喘息，但却让情况变得更为复杂。

Is compromise possible?

妥协可能实现吗? 

It appears so.

似乎如此。

A middle-ground solution - called Segwit2x - aims to start sending signature data separately from the blockchain later this week and then to double the block size limit to 2MB in three months' time.

一个名为“Segwit2x”的中间解决方案，目标旨在本周晚些时候开始将区块量的签名数据单独发送，然后在三个月内将区块大小的限制增加到2MB。

An initiative called Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 91 (BIP 91) states that if 80% of the mining effort adopts the new blockchain software involved and uses it consistently between 21 July and 31 July, then the wider community should accept this as the solution.

“比特币扩容提案91”(BIP 91)表示，如果80%的矿工作采用了新的区块链软件，并在7月21日至7月31日之间持续使用，那么这一解决方案应该在更广的范围内被接受。

The good news for those who like the idea is that close to 90% of miners appear to back the effort, according to Coin Dance, a Bitcoin-related statistics site.

据与比特币相关的统计网站Coin Dance的调查，对那些支持这个方案的人来说，好消息是，接近90%的矿工似乎支持这项计划。

Other plans exist to try again after August if the target is missed.

如果方案失败，其他计划将在8月后再次尝试。

But a risk remains that if use of Segwit2x software never reaches the required threshold or that hardcore opponents refuse to buckle, then it could result in two different versions of the blockchain, and in effect two types of Bitcoin.

但风险仍然存在，如果Segwit2x软件的使用者不到80%，或者坚决的反对者拒绝让步，那么它可能会导致两种不同版本的区块链，实际上是两种类型的比特币。

Such as schism could help rival cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum, prosper and ultimately doom Bitcoin altogether.

例如，分裂可能会帮助竞争对手，比如以太坊(Ethereum)发展壮大并最终毁灭比特币。

One expert, however, said he believed that was an unlikely outcome.

而一位专家表示，他认为这是一个不太可能的结果。

"The vast majority of people in the Bitcoin community are opposed to splitting Bitcoin into two competing cryptocurrencies," said Dr Garrick Hileman, research fellow at the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance.

“比特币社区的绝大多数人都反对将比特币分裂为两种竞争的虚拟货币，”剑桥替代性金融中心的研究员Garrick Hileman博士说。

"Such a move would weaken Bitcoin's network effect advantage and sow confusion.

此举将削弱比特币的网络效应优势，并造成混乱。

"It is much more likely that people who are dissatisfied with Bitcoin's direction will simply move on to something else, which is what we've seen in the past."

“更有可能的是，那些对比特币发展方向不满意的人只会转向别的东西，那些我们过去看到的东西。”


23. MKay
20 Jul 2017 15:18
@ 4. Boyd "How anyone managed to convince the world that a made-up virtual currency with no actual underlying asset has an intrinsic value only goes to evidence how easily people can be manipulated these days"

@ 4. Boyd “如何让世界相信，一种没有实际标的资产的虚拟货币具有内在价值，这只是证明了人们在这些日子里是多么容易被操纵。”

Yet you go to work in exchange for pieces of paper, or an increase in a number that your bank looks after?

然而，你去上班是为了换若干纸，还是为了让你的银行账户上的数字看起来增加了? 

95% of all global currency is digital / not in the form of an physical asset

全球95%的货币都是数字化的，而不是实物资产

19. Do all silver linings have clouds
20 Jul 2017 15:02
Cannot imagine any "currency" whose "value" can change relative to actual goods or services so quickly can be regarded as a real measure of value.

不能想象任何其“价值”可以相对于实际的商品或服务的如此快速地变化的“货币” 能够被视为价值的真正衡量标准。

11 June it was ￡2272 and then ￡1396 on 16th July and today around ￡1934. Imagine trying to value contracts of raw materials, services or even getting paid in bitcoins as it yoyos around.

6月11日￡2272，然后年7月16日￡1396，今天约￡1934。想象一下，如果你想要对原材料、服务的合同进行价值评估，甚至可以用比特币来支付，而它的价格却如此波动。

1. Hiram Oysterburger lll
20 Jul 2017 14:33
I went to a good school. I have a Masters Degree, Chartered Status with a prestigious professional organisation and Fellowship of another. I work with banks, financial organisations and am a registered valuer. 

我上了一所好学校。我获得了一个硕士学位，在一个着名的专业公司的拥有特许身份，同时又是另一个专业协会的会员。我与银行、金融机构共事，并且我是一个注册资产评估师。

Even with all this I simply do not understand Bitcoin. Not one bit.

即使有了这些，我也不懂比特币。一点也不懂。

(and before you ask I am not that old - still in my mid 40s).

(在你问我是不是还没有那么老之前——我可以告诉你我已经4张了)。

13. MountfordD
20 Jul 2017 14:53
I am yet to be convinced of the benefits of Bitcoin. I have never had the need to use anything other than standard card or cash or one of the mainstream fund transfer agents. Give me one good reason why bitcoin is more advantageous to mainstream payment methods and I'll start singing its praises. In the meantime, I really couldn't care.

我还不相信比特币的好处。我从来不需要使用除了标准的银行卡或现金或一个主流的资金转账平台以外的支付方式。给我一个理由，为什么比特币比主流的支付方式更好，然后我就开始为它唱赞歌。与此同时，我真的不在乎。

4. Boyd
20 Jul 2017 14:38
Who cares. How anyone managed to convince the world that a made-up virtual currency with no actual underlying asset has an intrinsic value only goes to evidence how easily people can be manipulated these days. Just take all these internet companies valued at billions that have and likely never will turn a profit.

谁会关心：如何让世界相信，一种没有实际标的资产的虚拟货币具有内在价值，这只是证明了人们在这些日子里是多么容易被操纵。就像现有的这些价值数十亿美元的互联网公司，它们可能永远不会盈利。

22. Ruby aged 4
20 Jul 2017 15:11
All money is imaginary.

所有的货币都是人们想象出来的。

64. freedomorbust
20 Jul 2017 16:40
48. Posted by TK
at least real money is, "supposed", to represent reserves of a physical resource - gold. Note the word "supposed". 

至少，真正的货币“应该”，代表着一种物质资源的储备——黄金。注意“应该”这个词。

No it's not.

不，它并没有。

32. Templar
20 Jul 2017 15:40
1. Hiram Oysterburger III 

I...have a Masters Degree, Chartered Status....and Fellowship.... I work with banks, financial organisations and am a registered valuer. 

我上了一所好学校。我获得了一个硕士学位，在一个着名的专业公司的拥有特许身份，同时又是另一个专业协会的会员。我与银行、金融机构共事，并且我是一个注册资产评估师。

Even with all this I simply do not understand Bitcoin. Not one bit. 

即使有了这些，我也不懂比特币。一点也不懂。

It seems to be hip and internet based

它似乎是潮流和基于互联网的

That usually means lots of people getting burned for the greater glorification and enrichment of a handful

那通常意味着很多人为了更大的荣耀和更多财富而被烧死

2. fuzzy
20 Jul 2017 14:34
Was down to ￡1500 the other day, now back at near ￡2000, so you missed your chance to buy the dip. Sure to be another along some day, but after each dip it rises higher. I keep telling you, decentralisation is the future:-)

之前某一天跌到￡1500，现在回到了￡2000附近,所以你错过了抄底的机会。当然，未来某一天可能还有机会，但每次大跌之后就会大涨。我一直告诉你，去中心化是未来:-)

25. RennesCJH
20 Jul 2017 15:26
Cannot imagine any "currency" whose "value" can change relative to actual goods or services so quickly can be regarded as a real measure of value.

不能想象任何其“价值”可以相对于实际的商品或服务的如此快速地变化的“货币” 能够被视为价值的真正衡量标准。

Have you been watching the ￡ recently? Duh - quite so!

你最近看￡吗?咄,的确如此!