股市狂澜背后的中国政治 [英国媒体]

世界第二大经济体------中国和其他国家相比,有一个显著不同的特点:每当它面临危机,它的领导层总是显得不动声色,波澜不惊。悄然做出一些不但影响十四亿中国人,面且影响全世界的决定。就在这一星期,中国的政治精英们对股灾这一危机只字不提,官方的主流媒体也退避三舍,政府更是对社交媒体进行了严厉的监管限制。


The politicsbehind China's stock market turbulence

股市狂澜背后的中国政治



One of the most extraordinary things aboutthe world's number two economy is that when it faces a crisis, the leadershipcarries on in public as if nothing has happened.
Decisionswhich affect the fate not just of 1.4 billion people in China but as we nowknow, the rest of the world as well, are made in secret by a handful of men.
Thisweek, China's top political leaders have made no mention of the crisis,flagship mainstream media avoided touching on it, and government censorsconstrained discussion on social media within firm boundaries.

世界第二大经济体------中国和其他国家相比,有一个显着不同的特点:每当它面临危机,它的领导层总是显得不动声色,波澜不惊。悄然做出一些不但影响十四亿中国人,面且影响全世界的决定。
就在这一星期,中国的政治精英们对股灾这一危机只字不提,官方的主流媒体也退避三舍,政府更是对社交媒体进行了严厉的监管限制。

'New normal'
Does thismatter? It is certainly different from any other major economy where the causesof such a crisis and competing solutions would have been thrashed out day inday out for the past two months.

新常态
是这一回事吗?中国完全不同于其他主要经济体。当其它国家面临类似的危机,它们会在过去的两个星期里刨根究底地分析原因,各种不同的解决方案将竞相摆在台面上进行讨论。

Stepping back from the stock market turmoil, the central challengefor China's policy makers is whether they can build a prosperous advancedeconomy with sustainable long term growth before the old-style investmentdriven economy grinds to a zero growth catastrophe.

回顾中国的这次股灾,中国的政策制定者最大的挑战是能否建立起一个繁荣的、先进的、可持续发展经济体,以代替过时的,投资驱动型的经济体。只有这样,才能避免经济停滞的恶果。



The government has loudly committed itself to a"new normal" which necessitates a range of painful but unavoidablemarket reforms. But no large authoritarian country has ever managed the move tohigh income status. So if China did achieve such a feat, it would be setting aprecedent and making history.

政府曾信誓旦旦地宣称将致力于建立一个“新常态”,并为此将一系列痛苦的,但不可避免的市场改革。
但是,一个权威国家成功地把本国经济提升到现有高度是没有先例的。所以,一旦中国实现这一宏伟目标,这将是史无前例的成就。

Not forthe first time, Party members and many other Chinese citizens may well retort,adding that China's leadership deserves credit for its management of theeconomy over the past three decades of reform. But the stock market crisis hasdemonstrated that the way Chinese politics relates to its economics has veryspecific consequences and not all of them are beneficial.

中国的领导人,还有许多普通的中国人反复强调:中国的领导者在过去的三十年里进行了成绩斐然的改革,可谓功勋卓越。但是这次股灾也表明:中国政治的运行方式并非尽善尽美,甚至也可能带来一些特别的不良后果。

First isthe need to find scapegoats. Because of leadership paranoia about anythingwhich approaches criticism of China's political system, when things go wrongthere has to be a villain and that villain has to be identified quickly andpublicly.

有了过失,首先,它要揪出一些替罪羊。由于领导层对于任何批评政治制度的近乎偏执的反感。一旦发生问题,肯定有“敌对势力”的存大,而且这些“敌对势力”一定要尽快查出,并公之于众。

So thisweek has seen a number of high profile investigations of market manipulation aswell as the detention of a financial journalist for allegedly "fabricatingrumours" which is often shorthand for facts which happen to be politicallyinconvenient.

所以这一周,政府高调查处了一些操纵市场的案件,一名财经记者也因“编造放言”而被拘捕,其实他们之所以被捕与其说是因为犯罪,倒不如说是因为政治。

Wise and fair?

明智吗?公平吗?

But it isa matter of public record that government, central bank, regulators andpropaganda chiefs all boosted the bull market in the early part of this year,and in any other economy, there would now be a discussion about the performanceof each of them.
Was itwise to pour leveraged funds into such an inexperienced market at such anastonishing rate? Was it well-judged to deflate a credit bubble by creating astocks bubble? Was it fair to make small investors feel paper-rich in an effortto get them to save less and spend more?

今年年初,政府、中央银行、监管部门以及宣传机构对牛市进行不遗余力的吹捧。而在其它国家,它们会对股市的各个层面的表明进行分析讨论。
在如此短时间的之内,向一个不成熟的市场投入如此巨大的资金是一个明智之举吗?通过制造一个股市泡沫来代替一个信贷泡沫是深思熟虑后的决策吗?让中小投资者省吃俭用的方式来实现纸上富贵是公平的吗?



Insteadof targeting a handful of brokers for insider trading, a different politicswould allow questions about the systemic corruption risks on the markets andabout how to make the regulator independent and transparent. TV news bulletinsmight hear from Chinese citizens who've lost their savings and have their ownviews on who is responsible.

在其他国家,他们不仅仅处罚一小撮内线交易者,而且允许讨论系统性的腐败对市场造成的影响以及如何使监管更加独立透明。在中国,电视上可能只能听到民众抱怨谁赔了钱,谁该为此负责。

Thetaboos about touching on anything systemic, anything relating to transparencyor vested interests make it hard to have a rational discussion about whatcaused the problem or how to put it right.

因为讨论任何有关制度性的,增加透明性的和既得利益阶层的话题是个禁忌,在中国,很难对导致这轮股灾的问题进行理性的诊断,药到病除当然无从谈起。      

A secondfeature specific to Chinese politics in a crisis is the determination not tolet the facts get in the way of the preordained script and to reinforce unityaround that script.
Throughoutthe stock market plunge, the main evening news programme on national TV hasfocused on anything but, typically leading with long reports on politicalleaders appearing together at various work forums and making encouraging speecheswith no reference to the elephant in the room. A public united front is anarticle of faith for the Communist Party.

在整个股市低迷期间,国家电视台的晚间新闻节目中,人们只能看到国家领导人一起出现各种工作论坛中,发表一些空洞的,鼓励性的话语。在公共场合展现团结,是向共产党效忠的一种方式。



In themid-1980s, divisions at the top over how to confront economic problems played apart in events leading to the student democracy protests of 1989. Many in theleadership still blame those divisions for the massacre which followed."United we stand, divided we fall" is a Chinese Communist Party tenetof faith.

上个世纪八十年代,由于高层对如何处理经济问题上出现了分歧并导致了1989年的那场风暴。“团结则存,分裂则亡”因而成为党的信条。

Due tothe enormous secrecy of Chinese, it's impossible to know exactly what's goingon, but there are signs of serious divisions. The bungled stock marketintervention of early July was a clear departure from the market reform agendathat Premier Li Keqiang had set out at the beginning of the year.

外人很难知道中国高层内部发生了什么问题,因为其决策机制有很强的封闭性。然而有迹象表明,其间有严重的分歧。因为这次干涉股市的做法,明显与李克强总理年初所声称的市场改革方向背道而驰的。

Afortnight ago, an important commentary in the flagship People's Dailycriticised retired officials "who continue to use their influence tointervene in crucial decisions long after they have retired". And earlierin the year the same Party mouthpiece launched a broadside against factions,pointing out that throughout Chinese history, factional politics had broughtdown many mighty dynasties.

几个星期以前,官媒《人民日报》一篇重要的评论批评了某些退休高官“退而不休,在重大问题上施加个人影响”。新年伊始,作为中共喉舌的同份报纸对帮派主义进行了批判,指出纵观中国历史,许多貌似强大的王朝,都由于帮派倾扎崩溃。

Thefinance minister Lou Jiwei issued a blunt warning recently: "We don't havea lot of time left and the only way forward is reform." He was not talkingto you or me.

财政部长楼继伟曾公开语出惊心:“留给我们的时间已经不多了,唯一的出路是改革。”



Don'tforget the context for decision making here. Even before the economic woes ofthe summer, the anti-corruption campaign had turned elite politics into a bloodsport in which many top politicians, bureaucrats and generals found themselvesbehind bars.

在股市危机暴发之前的夏天,轰轰烈烈的反腐运动已经把许多政客、高官、军官绳之以法。

Theharder the Party works at public displays of unity, the harder it is to believein that unity.

然而,愈是在公众面前展示团结,民众愈是怀疑团结的真实性。

Some ofthe country's most powerful families have been hurt in the anti-corruptioncampaign and the market reforms ahead will hurt their business empires further.The stock market crisis and the handling of this month's currency devaluationhave damaged the credibility of economic policy makers at a time when thesapping of confidence in China's growth prospects make decisions about how tohandle long term reform even more critical.

反腐运动打击了一些权倾一方的显赫家庭,不断推进的市场改革也将进一步摧毁他们的商业帝国。这次股市危机与及贬值人民币的作法影响了经济政策制定者的信誉,对中国经济增长前景的信心也受到损害。也使得如何进行长期经济改革变得更加关键。

Theabsence of public discourse produces a parallel universe with political andbusiness elites awash with rumours about factional vendettas and power plays.

由于缺乏公开的讨论,导致政治精英和经济精英的脱节。有关党派斗争和权力倾扎的传言也就甚嚣尘上。

Underlying all else is the knowledge that China has reached animportant moment of decision. When the economy was growing fast, there were nohard choices between core economic and political objectives.
But nowthat growth is slowing, the conflict is stark between the economic imperativeof freeing up markets for the sake of China's future and the politicalimperative of iron control for Party survival.

有一点可以肯定的是,中国已经到了一个关键的节点。当经济增长快的时候,现行的经济模式和政治模式尚能和平共处。
但是现在,经济增长在减速,为了国家的未来而进行市场自由化的经济主张和为了党的生存而进行铁腕控制的政治主张的矛盾突现。



Yes theParty wants markets because it knows they will allocate resources moreefficiently than the state, but when the chips are down it wants totalpolitical control more because it fears that anything less will challenge itsrule.

是的,中共也有意愿进行市场改革,因为它知道这样做能更加优化的方式进行资源分配,但是,当改革即将来临,它又想要进行完全的政治控制,因为稍有松施,就会伤及它的统治。

Behindthe walls of the leaders' compound in Zhongnanhai, there are many views on howto square that circle on any given day for any given policy decision. But theconstituency fighting for independent regulators, transparent markets and bravefinancial journalism is not strong.
Now thatthe mesmerising stock market bubble has burst, those outside Chinese borderswill mull the fundamental question about whether China can build an innovativemarket economy under a brittle one party state. But that is a question thatthose inside China are not invited to debate

在中南海的高墙之外,人们对它会在何时、作出何种决定各怀已见。但是,为了实现独立监管、透明市场和新闻监督而战斗的力量并不强大。
现在,巨大的股市泡沫已经捅破,中国能否在一党制之下建立一个有创新意义的市场经济,世界各国都拭目以待。不过,这个问题在中国内部是不能公开讨论的。

阅读: