冷战以来最大的威胁：核灾难 [英国媒体]

At an annual conference designed to prevent nuclear disaster, speakers express concerns over the US President's stance on Iran and North Korea。The threat of a nuclear catastrophe is higher now than at any time since the most tense days of the Cold War, a leading international think tank has heard. Plummeting US-Russia relations, threats from terrorists and rogue states and, significantly, the behaviour of US President Donald Trump are key factors.

在防止核扩散的年会上，发言人对美国总统针对伊朗和北韩的立场表示担忧。目前，核灾难的威胁比冷战时期以来的任何时候都要高。急剧下降的美俄关系、恐怖分子和流氓国家的威胁以及美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的行为都是关键因素。

Mr Trump’s shadow loomed over the 10th-anniversary conference of the Luxembourg Forum with speakers expressing grave worry over Mr Trump’s avowed aim of scrapping the landmark nuclear deal with Iran and his repeated public threats to annihilate North Korea.

特朗普的阴影笼罩在卢森堡论坛10周年会议上，发言者对特朗普废除与伊朗达成的具有里程碑意义的核协议，以及他一再公开威胁要消灭朝鲜的公开声明表示严重担忧，。

The failure of Washington and Moscow to negotiate on their nuclear arsenals amid a series of geopolitical confrontations ranging from Ukraine to Syria has created uncertainty and instability, the meeting in Paris was told. But it was impending action by Mr Trump which was the source of deepest and most immediate concern to delegates.

在巴黎召开的会议上，华盛顿和莫斯科在一系列从乌克兰到叙利亚的地缘政治冲突中未能就其核武库进行谈判，造成了不确定性和不稳定性。但是特朗普即将采取的行动，是代表们最深切关注的问题。

Mr Trump is expected to announce this week that he will not certify the agreement with Tehran, starting a process which may lead gains of years of painstaking diplomacy unravelling. Statesmen at the summit warned that this would also have the highly damaging consequence for attempts to halt North Korea’s nuclear programme with Pyongyang claiming that an international deal can be sabotaged by the US in the future.

预计特朗普本周将宣布，他将不会与德黑兰签署协议，。可能导致多年外交努力的失败。与会的政治家警告说，这也将对制止朝鲜核计划产生极大的破坏性后果，声称美国将来可能会破坏国际协议。

Addressing the Forum, Tony Blair acknowledged that aspects of the agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action ( JCPOA) with Iran, were questioned when it was signed. However, he continued: “But now it has been done, it has a process of verification – it means that for now at least the nuclear programme of Iran can be stalled, and the sensible thing, in my opinion, is to preserve it.” The Middle East, he added, was going through a period of great strife and “abandoning the JCPOA would add another dimension of immediate risk which at present we don’t need”.

在论坛上发表讲话时，托尼·布莱尔承认，与伊朗达成的联合全面行动计划(JCPOA)在签署时受到了质疑。然而，他继续说:“但现在已经完成了，它有一个验证的过程——这意味着至少现在伊朗的核项目可以搁置，而我认为，明智的做法是保留它。”他补充说，中东正在经历一段时间的冲突，“放弃JCPOA将增加另一个迫在眉睫的风险，这不是我们想要的。”

The former British Prime Minister described the North Korean regime as “abhorrent”. But diplomacy, with the help of China, and not sabre-rattling was the right avenue to stop Kim Jong-un acquiring a nuclear arsenal. “We can threaten military action… But unless there are elements of which I am unaware in either the weakness of the North Korean defences or the strength of US capabilities, it is hard to think of a pre-emptive strike which would not result in catastrophic consequences”, said Mr Blair.

前英国首相将朝鲜政权描述为“可恶的”。但是，在中国的帮助下，外交并不会过于激进，这是阻止金正日获得核武库的正确方法。“我们可以进行军事行动的威胁......除非我们了解朝鲜的防御薄弱地带或美国足够的强大，否则很难预测先发制人的攻击会不会造成严重的灾难性的后果。

William Perry, the highly respected former US Defence Secretary who had served under Presidents Carter, Reagan and Clinton, said he was “appalled” by the rhetoric used by Mr Trump over the North Korean crisis: “Leaving aside the matter of political decorum I think this kind of language stimulates and creates the kind of condition which may mean that the US and North Korea may blunder into a war. And the results of such a war would be catastrophic.”

曾在卡特总统，里根和克林顿总统任期时就职的受人尊敬的前美国国防部长William Perry对“特朗普先生”在北韩危机中所使用的修辞感到震惊：“忽视政治礼仪问题，我认为这种刺激性的语言可能意味着美国和朝鲜可能会陷入战争。这样的战争的结果将是灾难性的。“

Mr Perry dismissed Mr Trump’s claims about the supposed failure of the Iran nuclear deal. “I do not agree with his views about the agreement. We can see that the agreement has been successful in significantly curtailing the Iranian nuclear programme, to the benefit of our security,” he stated.

佩里驳斥了特朗普关于伊朗核协议可能失败的言论。我不同意他对这项协议的看法。我们可以看到，该协议已经成功地削减了伊朗核项目，使我们的安全受益。

“President Trump seems to think that the agreement could be scrapped and then renegotiated. But another agreement is not something which would be available. Scrapping the deal would have an effect everywhere including Europe, among our allies, who know that it is working.”

特朗普总统似乎认为，该协议将会被取消，然后重新谈判。但另一项协议并不可行。取消这项协议将会对包括欧洲在内的所有盟国产生影响，因为我们的盟友知道它正在发挥作用。

Hans Blix, the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said: “President Trump recently spoke of his regard for the UN. The UN has said that Iran is complying with the agreement. Mr Trump now wants to walk away and unilaterally tear up this agreement, saying it is not working. But the fact is that the Iran deal is far-reaching and in place... reached multilaterally and other countries believe it is working and they will try to preserve this agreement.”

国际原子能机构前负责人 Hans Blix表示:“特朗普总统最近对联合国谈到了他的看法。联合国称伊朗遵守协议。特朗普现在想要离开，并单方面解除协议，这是行不通的。事实是，伊朗的协议影响深远……达成了多边协议，其他国家认为这是可行的，他们将努力维护这一协议。

Viatcheslav Moshe Kantor, the President of the Luxembourg Forum, made clear that “undoing the Iran nuclear deal would be unforgivable”. He also warned that the possibility of a deliberate provocation by North Korea was “very real' and could trigger a ”global chain of nuclear strikes,“ with America needing to tread carefully over both issues.

卢森堡论坛主席Viatcheslav Moshe Kantor明确表示，“解除伊朗核协议是不可原谅的”。他还警告说，朝鲜蓄意挑衅的可能性“非常真实”，并可能引发“全球核战争”，美国需要在这两个问题上谨慎行事。

Des Browne, the former British Defence Secretary, pointed out that even the most senior members of President Trump’s administration are urging him not to scrap the agreement. “We know that the Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson; the Defence Secretary, General James Mattis; his National Security Adviser, General HR McMaster have all taken this view. This seems to be the view across the whole world apart from a very few exceptions. This is an agreement which has the support of the international community and also the support of Iran. But we have Mr Trump determined to take this strange, lonely road. JCPOA was hard fought and hard won. It is something of vital importance, it is something worth fighting again to keep.”

英国前国防部长德斯•布朗(DesBrowne)指出，即使是特朗普政府的最高级别的成员也敦促他不要放弃协议。“我们知道国务卿雷克斯·蒂勒森;国防部长詹姆斯·马蒂斯将军，以及他的国家安全顾问General HR McMaster都支持这一观点。除了极少数例外，这似乎是全世界的观点。这是一项得到国际社会和伊朗支持的协议。但我们的特朗普先生决定走这条奇怪又孤独的路。JCPOA努力奋斗，并取得了来之不易的胜利。这是一件值得再次战斗的事。