【BBC】川普政策：川普执政是否让世界更危险？ [英国媒体]

Trumplomacy: Has Trump made the world more dangerous?

川普政策：川普执政是否让世界更危险？

By Barbara Plett Usher
BBC State Dept correspondent, Washington

作者：Barbara Plett Usher
BBC驻华盛顿记者



  PS: 首尔一电视屏幕上川普和金正恩同框

The world has become a more uncertain place since US President Donald Trump issued his "America First" decree in the dark and dystopian language that so alarmed allies and intrigued adversaries. But has it become more dangerous?

自从美国总统唐纳德·特朗普发表其“美国第一”口号，世界变得越来越不可测。 其黑暗及反乌托邦口吻似乎是在警告同盟国，也激起其对手的兴趣。但是这是否会使世界变得更危险？

Not if you look at what's actually happened.

如果你看见实际上发生的事情你会说“并没有”。

President Trump may have stoked fears and churned up chaos with his erratic and volatile Twitter feed. But he has not torpedoed the alliances he has questioned.

或许特朗普总统古怪而又反复无常的推文会引起恐慌及骚乱，但是并没有破坏他和他时常质疑的同盟之间的关系。

He hasn't started any new wars and, by and large, he's followed the script of his predecessor, Barack Obama, for the old ones.

他并没有引发新的战争，大体上他也是沿用前任总统奥巴马的政策。

So, while he may have shaken things up, he hasn't blown anything up.

所以，虽然他或多或少搞了些事情，但是也没有破坏任何事。

But has this unorthodox commander-in-chief edged us closer to some sort of global crisis?

但是这个非正统的总司令是否把我们推向全球性危机？

Here are my takeaways.

请见以下几个方面。

1. Middle East victory - Islamic State

1. 中东胜利---伊斯兰国

Since he became president, the Islamic State group has been all but defeated in Iraq and Syria - the IS caliphate has been eliminated and its remnants are on the run.

自特朗普上任总统以来，特朗普几乎击败了伊拉克和叙利亚的伊斯兰国组织，已消除IS根据地，其余党仍在逃。

Yes, the group has spawned active affiliates in other parts of the world, and it's a brand that continues to inspire extremist violence. But its nerve centre has been severed, making its threat less potent.

是的，该组织在世界其他地方又衍生了几个分支，仍在持续鼓吹极端暴力。但是其主要控制中心已被摧毁，大大削弱其势力。



  PS: 巴尔米拉（叙利亚中部城市）脱离IS控制。

One can argue about whether Mr Trump is entitled to claim credit or whether he simply completed what Mr Obama started. He did follow Mr Obama's template - supporting local forces with bombs from the air and special operations forces on the ground - but accelerated the campaign and gave American commanders more authority to run it.

人们可以争论特朗普是否有权邀功或他是否简单地完成了奥巴马尚未完成的事项。他确实是保留了奥巴马的政策，即支持当地部队，援以空中导弹及地面特种部队。但这样也加速该场战争，赋予美军指挥官更大的权力。

That "had a major impact", says Brett McGurk, the special envoy for the global coalition to counter the IS group, who has worked for both presidents.

麦克格（Brett mcGurk）是全球反IS联盟的特使，为两任总统都服务过，说道“此举影响重大”。

Either way, it happened on Mr Trump's watch, and is arguably his biggest foreign policy success.

不管怎样，此事是在特朗普执政时期发生，可以说，这是他外交政策上取得的最大成功。

Verdict: Success

裁定：成功

2. Middle East instability - Iran

2. 中东不稳定---伊朗

A year ago, the Americans and five other world powers had reduced the threat of an Iranian atomic bomb with an agreement that limited its nuclear programme.

一年前，美国和其他另外五个世界强国通过一项限制伊朗核项目的协议，解除了伊朗原子弹的威胁。

The deal is broadly seen to be working, but Mr Trump says it's deeply flawed and needs to be "fixed". He's threatening to abandon it unless the Europeans who helped negotiate it take a harder line.

该协议被广泛认为是有效的，但是特朗普说协议漏洞百出，需要“修复”一下。他威胁要废除该协议，除非另有欧洲强国出面并且立场坚硬。

Mr Trump wants to make the nuclear restrictions permanent, restrict Iran's ballistic weapons programme and counter "malign" Iranian activities not covered in the accord, such as its support for regional proxies that threaten Western allies.

特朗普想要使核限制永久有效，限制伊朗的导弹武器项目并打击伊朗“恶毒”的破坏性活动，例如伊朗对地区代理人的支持会威胁到西方同盟国，协议里面都没关于此些内容。

These are things the Europeans agree need to be addressed, but not by enfeebling the nuclear deal which, they say, is crucial to their security.

欧洲大国同意以上是需要解决的问题，但绝对不能废除对他们安全至关重要的核协议。

There are three potential dangers if the agreement unravels - greater instability in the Middle East, especially given Trump's strong support for Iran's regional rival, Saudi Arabia; and a weakening of the transatlantic alliance, which has been a cornerstone of global security since World War Two.


废除该协议有三大潜在危险---中东地区局势更加动荡，尤其是特朗普给伊朗竞争对手沙特阿拉伯的过度支持；跨大西洋联盟势力的减弱，自二战以来跨大西洋联盟是全球安全的基石。

It could also undermine the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty on which the Iran deal was built, says Angela Kane, until recently the UN's top disarmament official: "We need to have this as a gold standard."

它还可能破坏伊朗协议所建立的《核不扩散条约》，直到最近，联合国最高裁军官员安吉拉·凯恩（ Angela Kane）表示:“我们不能动摇该条约的地位。”

Verdict: Danger

裁定：危险

3. Nuclear war back on radar

3. 核战重回视野

North Korea's Kim Jong-un has made the world a more dangerous place by building nuclear weapons and threatening the US with them.

朝鲜金正恩通过制造核武器，并威胁美国，使世界变得更加危险。

But Mr Trump has made the situation more dangerous by responding with fiery rhetoric, increasing the risk of accidental conflict with the reclusive and paranoid regime.

但是特朗普激烈言辞的回应，增加与这个封闭又偏执政权发生冲突风险，使得局势变得更危险。

True, he swings between hurling insults and threats to expressing a willingness to talk. Right now he's doing the latter, going with the flow of the Olympic détente between the Koreas.

没错，他在辱骂和威胁之间摇摆，也表达了和其谈话的意愿。现在他选择了后者，借奥运会缓和和南北朝鲜的关系。

And the administration has built a strong coalition of international support for a higher-pressure strategy, united in its demand that Pyongyang give up its nuclear weapons.

美政府也已建立一个强有力的国际支持联盟，提出高压政策，联合要求平壤放弃核武器。



PS: 与朝鲜开战会如何？

That, says John Negroponte, deputy secretary of state under George W Bush, shows Mr Trump is trying to make the world safer.

乔治·布什时期的副国务卿约翰·内格罗蓬特（John Negroponte）表示此举动展示特朗普尝试着使世界更安全。

People "got all upset because he called Kim Jong-un 'Rocket Man' at the… United Nations, and that's endangering world peace? Come on!"

人们都因为“特朗普在联合国上称呼金正恩‘火箭人’而感到不安，这会危害世界和平？别这样呀!”

he says. "Sticks and stones will break my bones but names will never hurt me!"

他还表示“乱棍石头能伤害肉体，但是区区一个称呼伤害不了我！”

Patrick Cronin, an Asia expert at the Center for a New American Security, says Mr Trump's brinkmanship serves a purpose: "Kim thinks we don't use force and that's why President Trump is right to kind of stress, in his maniacal way, that 'you don't know that.'"

新国家安全中心一位亚洲专家表示特朗普的边缘政策别有用意，“金正恩以为我们不会使用武力，这就是为什么特朗普总统以你所不能理解的疯狂的方式，来实施无形的压力”。

Still, this is the first time the US has threatened to attack a nuclear-armed state since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962. That was dangerous, and less… unorthodox.

尽管如此，这也是自1962年古巴导弹危机以来，美国首次威胁要袭击一个拥有核武器的国家。这是非常危险的，非正统的..

Verdict: Danger

裁定：危险

4. Return toCold War

4. 重回冷战



  PS: 特朗普和普京开玩笑，但事实上两国之间的裂痕更加深了。

Speaking of the Cold War, the recent false alert in Hawaii that warned of an incoming missile was caused by a worker who pushed the wrong button during a shift change.

说到冷战，最近夏威夷发出虚警，声称由于一名工人换班期间按错按钮，将会发出导弹。

William Perry, secretary of defence under Bill Clinton, is all too familiar with false alerts - he was awakened by a call from a nightwatch officer in 1979 and thought he was "about to experience the holocaust".

克林顿时期的国防部长威廉·佩里（WilliamPerry) 对于虚警再熟悉不过了，1979年一个晚上，Perry被一位夜班员工的电话吵醒了，他以为“即将经历一场大屠杀”。

Mr Perry presided over the dismantlement of nuclear weapons in the 1990s but now warns the threat is back - "because the US and Russia today are confronting each other with a hostility that's recreating the geopolitical dangers of the Cold War," he said at a recent forum.

佩里先生在20世纪90年代负责拆卸核武器，最近他在一个论坛表示如今核武器威胁即将再现：“因为俄美两国正处于敌对状态，重现冷战状态的地缘政治风险。”

"And because the US and Russia are rebuilding their nuclear arsenals that's recreating the military dangers of the Cold War."

“还因为俄美两国都在建他们自己的军械库，这也会再造冷战状态的军事危险。”

This is not Mr Trump's fault, per se.

这本身不是特朗普的错。

The Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, upped the ante with his interventions in Ukraine, and under Mr Obama the presidents stopped talking to each other in any meaningful way.

俄罗斯总统普京加大了对乌克兰的干预措施，奥巴马总统时期就停止与俄罗斯以任何有意义的方式交谈。

Mr Trump wants to talk to Mr Putin, probably too much. But he can't, because the controversy over whether his campaign colluded with Moscow to influence his election has created such a toxic climate in Washington.

特朗普想与普京对话，但是不能，因为围绕他的竞选是否与莫斯科勾结从而影响竞选结果的争议，已经在华盛顿带来太多话题了。

Ironically the relationship is worse now than it was under Barack Obama.

讽刺的是相比起奥巴马执政时期，俄美两国的关系现在更糟糕了

Verdict: Alert

裁定：警惕

5. Downgraded diplomacy

5.外交冷淡

Donald Trump has made it clear that he prefers generals to diplomats.

特朗普很明确的表达过比起外交官他更喜欢将军。

He's proposed deep budget cuts to the state department and presided over the marginalisation of diplomatic influence in national security decision-making.

他提议大幅削减国务院的预算，并在国家安全决策方面负责外交影响边缘化。

The militarisation of US foreign policy has been under way for some time, especially since the 9/11 attacks, but Mr Trump has accelerated it.

自911时间以来，美国外交政策军事化早已提上日程，而特朗普加快了这一进程。

He doesn't seem to understand or care much for diplomacy.

他似乎不太了解或者说是不在乎外交吧。

When asked about unfilled positions at the state department, he famously channelled Louis XIV, telling a Fox News presenter he was the only one who mattered because "when it comes to it, that's what the policy is going to be".

当被问及国务院职位空缺时，他以着名的路易十四为导向，告诉福克斯新闻主持人，他是唯一重要的人，因为“因为只有我能决定政策的走向。”

Diplomacy is a bit like preventive health care - it solves problems before they become wars.

外交有点类似预防性保健，因为外交能把战争扼杀在摇篮。

So if you weaken it, you're more likely to have wars.

所以如果你削弱这一方面，你很有可能惹上战争。

And if Mr Trump wants to #MAGA [Make America Great Again], he'd do well to remember that many of the critical successes of American foreign policy have been diplomatic - think the Marshall Plan, the Egyptian-Israeli Peace Treaty.

如果特朗普想 “让美国再次伟大”，他最好记得美国外交政策成功的关键在于外交，试想想《马歇尔计划》，《埃以和约》。PS: MAGA=“Make American GreatAgain” (MAGA=让美国再次伟大)

Its military adventures less so - think Vietnam, Iraq.

其军事冒险也是—请想想越南，伊拉克..

Verdict: Alert

裁定：警惕

6. America in retreat?

6. 美国“退群行动”？

Mr Trump has begun to unpick America's commitment to a network of agreements that are supposed to collectively solve the world's problems.

特朗普开始违背一系列协议，这些协议本应共同解决世界问题。

Withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord has been the most consequential so far.

目前为止影响最大的是退出了《巴黎气候协议》。

It's true that the process takes four years and that other factors are mitigating the effects - American states and private companies are continuing with their own clean-power plans. But the US will be doing far less to fight global warming than it might have done.

的确，该进程需要4年时间，也有其他因素减轻影响: 美国国企和私企仍在继续他们自己的清洁能源计划。但是美国在对抗全球变暖方面做的努力远远少于他能做到的。

More broadly, Mr Trump's America First rhetoric seems aimed at disrupting the alliances and institutions that have kept the world peaceful since World War Two.

更广泛的层次上说，特朗普的“美国第一”言论咋一看像是破坏二战以来为世界和平而设的联盟和机构。

Or at least, he is retreating from America's traditional lead role in maintaining them.

或至少，他正从美国传统的领导角色中撤退。

If Mr Trump "succeeds in dismantling that order the world will be a lot more dangerous", says David Ignatius, who writes about foreign affairs for the Washington Post. But, he told me, American power has "a durability that transcends Trump and his government by tweet".

华盛顿邮报撰写外交事务的作家大卫·尼克尔斯（DavidLgnatius)说，如果特朗普“成功让美国从这一角色抽离出来，世界会更危险”。但是，他告诉我，美国本身“持久的实力远超特朗普和其推特治国的政府”。

Richard Haass, of the Council on Foreign Relations, is more pessimistic. He writes in The Atlantic that no other power is capable of taking America's place if it withdraws from actively promoting international order.

美国外交关系协会主席理查德·哈斯（RichardHaass）更悲观。他在《大西洋月刊》上写到如果美国从积极推进国际秩序的行动中退出，那么就没有其他大国能取代美国的位置。

"The alternative to a US-led international order is less international order."

“国际秩序不以美国为主导，那国际秩序就没有了”。

Verdict: Alert

裁定：警惕



  PS: 美国从全球协议中退席

7. Unreliable and unpredictable

7. 不可靠及不可预测

You can argue that Donald Trump is driven more by his volatile personality than his commitment to America First.

你可以认为驱使唐纳德·特朗普的这一切行为是因为他反复无常的个性，而不是他“美国第一”的决心。

That has introduced an almost permanent element of disruption into US foreign policy, channelled by his Twitter feed and often contradicting his more stable senior officials.

他的推特内容，经常与其他稳定的高级官员发生矛盾，已经永久性成为影响美国外交政策的因素。

Mr Trump's supporters claim the unpredictability of his tweets can be used as leverage in international dealings. Or that they should be ignored as he rarely follows through with his threats.

特朗普的拥护者称他无定向的推文实际上是处理国际事务的一种手段。或者他们可以直接忽视，因为特朗普不会真的兑现他推文上的“威胁”。

But it confuses allies and adversaries alike about what exactly US policy is and decreases international confidence in American leadership.

但是特朗普的无定向使得其同盟和敌手都非常困惑，他们不清楚美国到底有什么政策，对美国为首的国际秩序信心越来越不足。

And that's not a comfortable place to be - having to live with an unpredictable White House in an unpredictable world.

在不可测的世界中，不得不生活在这样一个不可测的白宫，可不怎么舒适。

Verdict: Alert

裁定：警惕