成功预测2008年金融危机的经济学家表示，比特币是史上最大泡沫 [英国媒体]

Bitcoin biggest bubble in history, says economist who predicted 2008 crash

成功预测2008年金融危机的经济学家表示，比特币是史上最大泡沫

Nouriel Roubini calls cryptocurrency the ‘mother of all bubbles’ as it falls below $8,000

由于比特币跌破8000美元，鲁里埃尔•鲁比尼将加密货币称为“所有泡沫之母”。



Bitcoin has dropped 30% since the start of the week. Photograph: Jack Guez/AFP/Getty Images

自本周开始以来，比特币已经下跌了30%。照片：Jack Guez/法新社/Getty图片社

The economist credited with predicting the 2008 global financial crisis said a 12% fall in the value of bitcoin on Friday was the latest proof that the cryptocurrency was the biggest bubble in history and destined for a crash.

曾成功预测2008年全球金融危机的经济学家称，比特币这种加密货币是史上最大的泡沫，上周五比特币价值下跌了12%，就是最新的证据，这证明比特币注定是要崩溃的。

Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University, said bitcoin was “the mother of all bubbles” favoured by “charlatans and swindlers” as it fell below $8,000 (￡5,600) early on Friday, marking a 30% drop since the beginning of the week as investors became increasingly twitchy about a clampdown on cryptocurrencies by regulators. Later it rallied, climbing back over $8,600 by 3pm (GMT).

纽约大学经济学教授鲁里埃尔•鲁比尼表示，比特币是受到“江湖骗子”青睐的“所有泡沫之母”，周五早间跌破8000美元（5600英镑），就标志着自本周以来其已下跌30%，因为投资者越来越担忧监管机构将打压加密货币。随后，比特币价格又有所回升，在周五下午三点（格林尼治标准时间）回升至8600美元。

Bitcoin has lost more than half its value since hitting a peak of near $20,000 in the week before Christmas. Dubbed “Dr Doom”, Roubini said the sharp fall was the beginning of a crash that would see the value of the digital currency plummet “all the way down to zero”.

在圣诞节前一周，比特币价值达到了近2万美元的峰值，目前已跌去了超过一半。被称为“末日博士”的鲁比尼表示，暴跌是崩盘的开始，这将会使数字货币的价值“一路跌至零”。

Q&A

问与答

What is bitcoin and is it a bad investment?

什么是比特币？它会是一种糟糕的投资选项吗？

Bitcoin is the first, and the biggest, "cryptocurrency" – a decentralised tradable digital asset. Whether it is a bad investment is the big question. Bitcoin can only be used as a medium of exchange and in practice has been far more important for the dark economy than it has for most legitimate uses. The lack of any central authority makes bitcoin remarkably resilient to censorship, corruption – or regulation. That means it has attracted a range of backers, from libertarian monetarists who enjoy the idea of a currency with no inflation and no central bank, to drug dealers who like the fact that it is hard (but not impossible) to trace a bitcoin transaction back to a physical person.

比特币是第一个，也是最大的“加密货币”——一种去中心化的可交易数字资产。对于其是否是一种糟糕的投资确实是个大问题。比特币只能作为一种交换媒介，在实际应用中，比特币对地下经济的重要性，远远超过其对大多数合法用途。由于缺乏任何中央权威，使得比特币对审查、腐败或监管都具有极强的弹性。这意味着它能够吸引着大量的支持者，包括崇尚自由放任的货币主义者，他们主张没有通货膨胀的货币和不需要中央银行这样的想法，也包括贩毒分子，他们喜欢比特币交易难以（但并非不可能）追溯到具体的某个人这样的特性。

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The latest sell-off follows reports that US regulators are investigating whether the spike in the price of bitcoin in 2017 was the result of market manipulation. India’s finance minister said the country did not recognise the cryptocurrency as legal tender, pledging to fight their use for “illegitimate activities”.

此前有报道称，美国监管机构正在调查，2017年比特币价格飙升是否是市场操纵的结果。印度财政部长也表示，印度不认可这种加密货币为合法货币，并承诺将打击利用比特币的“非法活动”。

Digital currencies have also been hit by the news that Facebook is banning all adverts for cryptocurrencies. Ethereum, ripple, litecoin and other digital currencies all suffered double-digit percentage falls on Friday as investors took fright.

Facebook禁止所有加密货币广告的消息，使得数字货币再次受到了打击。周五，由于投资者恐慌，以太币、瑞波币、莱特币和其他数字货币都遭遇达两位数的跌幅。

“Policymakers and regulators are getting worried. Pretty much every G20 policymaker is talking about a crackdown,” Roubini told Bloomberg Television. “We can’t allow it to become the next Swiss bank account for use by criminals and people evading tax.”

“政策制定者和监管机构已开始担忧，几乎20国集团的每个决策者都在谈论打击行动”，鲁比尼对彭博电视表示，“我们不能允许其成为下一个瑞士银行账户，使其被犯罪分子和偷逃税者所利用。”

He added that the 1,300 cryptocurrencies or initial coin offerings currently in existence were “a scam”. “Most of them are even worse [than bitcoin] and don’t have any intrinsic value like bitcoin. So if bitcoin is a bubble, it’s a bubble to the power of two or three.”

他补充说，目前存在的1300种加密货币或首次代币发行融资都是“骗局”。“它们中的大多数甚至比比特币更糟糕，也没有比特币这样的内在价值。”因此，如果比特币是一个泡沫，那么这就是个能引发其本身两三倍大动能的泡沫。

Critics have warned that bitcoin has all the hallmarks of a classic speculative bubble that could burst, like the dotcom boom and the US sub-prime housing crash that triggered the global financial crisis. Last year it rose in value by more than 900%, making it the best performing asset of 2017.

批评人士警告称，比特币具有典型的投机性泡沫的全部属性，很可能会破裂，正如之前的互联网泡沫和引发全球金融危机的美国次贷危机。去年比特币的价值上涨了900%以上，使其成为2017年表现最好的资产。

Robert Shiller, the Nobel prize-winning economist, said last week that while bitcoin was a “really clever idea”, it would not become a permanent part of the financial world.

诺贝尔经济学奖得主、经济学家罗伯特•希勒上周表示，虽然比特币是一个“非常聪明的想法”，但它不会成为金融世界的永久组成部分。

“I tend to think of bitcoin as an experiment. It is an interesting experiment, but it’s not a permanent feature of our lives,” he said, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

“我倾向于把比特币看作一种实验，一种有趣的实验，但它并不具备我们生活的永久特征”，他在达沃斯世界经济论坛上如是说。

Bitcoin has lost more than half its value since its peak on 16 Dec 2017
Value of one bitcoin in dollars

自2017年12月16日达到峰值以来，比特币已经贬值了一半以上。
比特币的价值
 


Bitcoin is not recognised by any central bank and currently allows people to bypass banks and traditional payment methods to pay for goods and services. Banks and other financial institutions have been concerned about bitcoin’s early associations with money laundering and online crime, and it has not been adopted by any government.

比特币不被任何央行认可，而且目前允许人们绕过银行和传统支付方式来支付商品和服务。银行和其他金融机构一直对比特币早期参与洗钱和网络犯罪的关联感到担忧，而且其并未被任何政府所采用。

However, the spike in the price is forcing regulators and institutions to consider how to respond.

然而，价格的飙升正迫使监管部门和机构不得不考虑要如何应对。

Jon Cunliffe, deputy governor for financial stability at the Bank of England, has said that bitcoin is too small to pose a risk to the global economy. However, he warned that investors should “do their homework” before backing the digital currency.

英格兰银行负责金融稳定事务的副行长乔恩•坎里夫表示，比特币规模还太小，不会对全球经济构成威胁。不过他警告称，投资者在支持数字货币之前，应该“做足功课”。

“The wheels are coming off the bitcoin bandwagon,” said Neil Wilson, analyst at ETX Capital. “The regulatory crunch appears closer than ever and sooner or later this market could be headed back down to earth. Selling pressure at the moment is intense as there has been nothing but bad news for bitcoin bulls of late. Trying to catch the falling knife is a risky game.”

“比特币的车轮正在脱离浪潮”，ETX Capital的分析师尼尔•威尔逊表示，“监管收紧正在逼近，似乎比以往任何时候都更为临近，迟早这个市场可能也会要落回地面。当前的抛售压力是巨大的，因为近来比特币看涨者得到的一直都是坏消息。试图抓住掉落中的刀是个冒险的游戏。”

Bitcoin faces a global backlash from regulators and governments

比特币面临着全球监管机构和政府的强烈反对

India’s finance minister said this week that the country does not recognise cryptocurrencies as legal tender and would take action against their use in funding “illegitimate activities”.

印度财政部长本周表示，该国不承认加密货币为合法货币，并将采取行动以打击利用它们所进行的“非法活动”。

US regulators are investigating the Bitfinex exchange and a cryptocurrency company called Tether. They are questioning whether tether, whose coins are used to trade digital currency, are backed by US dollars as it claims.

美国监管机构正在调查Bitfinex交易平台和一家名为Tether的加密货币公司。他们正在查证Tether是否如其所称的那样得到了美元财力支持，将其代币用于数字货币交易。

Facebook has banned bitcoin and other cryptocurrency adverts on its site.

脸书也在其网站上禁止比特币和其他加密货币广告。

South Korea announced at the end of December that it was planning a crackdown on trading in the digital currency, preparing a ban on opening anonymous cryptocurrency accounts and new legislation to enable regulators to close coin exchanges if they felt there was a need to do so.

去年12月底，韩国宣布计划打击比特币交易，准备禁止设立公开匿名加密货币账户，并制订新的法规，以使监管机构在必要的情况下可以关闭代币交易平台。

UK prime minister Theresa May said last week she was concerned that criminals were taking advantage of digital currencies. “In areas like cryptocurrencies, like bitcoin, we should be looking at these very seriously,” she said.

英国首相特里萨•梅上周表示，她担心犯罪分子正在利用数字货币。她说：“在像比特币这样的加密货币领域，我们有必要非常认真地看待这些问题。”

Steven Mnuchin, US treasury secretary, signalled that bitcoin and cryptocurrencies would be subject to greater regulatory scrutiny in the world’s largest economy.

美国财长史蒂芬•努钦暗示，美国这个全球最大经济体中，比特币和加密货币将受到更为严格的监管审查。



GreenWyvern
In December I decided to skip bitcoin and invest in schadenfreude instead. My investment is starting to pay off.

去年12月，我就决定放弃比特币，转而投资“幸灾乐祸”。我的投资开始有了回报。

Klonzy @GreenWyvern
As long as you're sure. Nocoiners tend to get very tetchy when prices rise.

只要你确信。当价格上涨时，没有投资代币的人会变得非常暴躁。

netgrok @GreenWyvern
We should start a cryptocurrency called schadenfreudecoin.

我们应该启动一种叫做“幸灾乐祸币”的加密货币。

Phantasmagorical @GreenWyvern
You missed out. You should have bought at the beginning of 2017 at $1,000 and sold at the just before last Christmas. You could have packed your job in, have a holiday home, next door to Richard Branson and really indulged in a heavy dose of schadenfreude against Jamie Dimon. Happy days.

你错过了。你应该在2017年初以1000美元买入，然后在去年圣诞节前卖出。这样你就可以辞掉工作，买个度假别墅，隔壁就是理查德·布兰森，而且真的可以整天对杰米·戴蒙幸灾乐祸，过上神仙般的日子。

Markell1991
Ponzi scheme. Pyramid scheme. Bubble. Tulips. No inherent value. No central bank.
There you go commenters, I've done your work for you.

庞氏骗局、金字塔骗局、泡沫、郁金香投机潮。没有内在价值，没有中央银行。
给你的评论，拿去，我打完收工。

user403 @Markell1991
I dont see why you would put up "no central bank" there.

我不明白你在这里说的“没有中央银行”是啥意思。

CaptainGrey @user403
I think it is because there is no central bank to support it. Unlike proper currencies.
@Markell1991 summed it up pretty well. Hopefully it will crash out of existence.

我认为这是因为没有中央银行来支持它，并不像是合适的货币。
@Markell1991总结得很到位。希望它会崩溃消失。

Klonzy  @CaptainGrey
Are you saying the US dollar prior to 1913 was not a proper currency?

你的意思是说1913年之前的美元不是一种合适的货币吗？

ID8268134
It’s always been a Ponzi scheme, that’s what has driven its demand.

它一直就是个庞氏骗局，这就是驱动它的需求。

You get these crap media stories and a few nut job celebrities like Harry redknapp endorsing it. Suddenly it’s pushing the everyday idiot to consider it as a investment option.

你得到会是这些垃圾媒体的报道，还有一些像职业明星哈里·雷德克纳普这样的疯子的支持。突然间，那些白痴天天都推动把它都当成了投资选项。

Couple that with Twitter and you have a worthless imaginary coin becoming a hot commodity.

和推特一起，你们把一个毫无价值的假想币，炒成了热门商品。

Maybe all these investors should read the Emperors new clothes by Hans Christian.

也许所有这些投资者都应该读汉斯·克里斯蒂安的《皇帝的新衣》。

wascallywabbit  @ID8268134
Arsenal FC are also in on it - link

阿森纳足球俱乐部也加入了这个行列。

DDRGDP  @ID8268134
Harry Rednapp admitted in court he is illiterate.

哈里·雷德克纳普在法庭上承认他是文盲。

gbarron0077  @wascallywabbit
That is probably why Sanchez left. I bet they offered him a Bitcoin contract.

这可能就是桑切斯离开的原因。我打赌他们给了他一份比特币合同。

QuaidOnMars
I had this horrible feeling I was missing out an enormous opportunity back in November and December, lots of people I know were getting into it and telling me about the money they were making...they've now gone very quiet.

我有一种可怕的感觉，以为我在11月和12月错过了一个巨大的机会，很多我认识的人都有参与进来，还告诉我他们赚了多少钱……现在他们就很沉默了。

They couldn't answer me my question... what gives these so called currencies value? No one could give a good explanation.

他们也无法回答我的问题……这种所谓的货币到底赋予有什么价值？没有人能给我一个好的解释。

So relieved that I invested in magic beans instead.

所以我很欣慰，我投资了魔豆。

whomightyoube  @QuaidOnMars
What gives any currency value?

是什么赋予了货币以价值？

HippoMan  @QuaidOnMars
Ask that same question about anything else we use as currency, and you will receive answers that are no less confusing and unclear.

我也问过同样的问题，我们到底用什么作为货币，而你会得到同样令人困惑和不清楚的答案

BangtoRights  @QuaidOnMars
I'd hazard a guess that the value was coming from all the shorters piling in, similar to what happened with VW shares a number of years back.

我猜这个价值来自于所有那些短线炒家，就像几年前大众汽车股票的情况一样。

readi24
Wouldn't it be nice to hear a pro Bitcoin story in the mainstream media for once?
Boring. Boring. Boring.

那怕能在主流媒体上听到一次专业点的比特币故事也是好的呀？
无聊，无聊，无聊。

For those of you new to crypto currencies, they are an rapidly emerging alternate economy. They boom when the fiat economies fall. Naturally there was a bit too much excitement and the price rose too fast. Politicians waded in with little to no knowledge and now the market has had a large and not overdue correction.

对于那些刚开始接触加密货币的人来说，它们是一种快速发展的替代经济。当法定货币经济下滑时，它们就会繁荣起来。自然地是会有些太过刺激，价格涨得太快了点。政客们几乎没有任何相关知识就介入了，而现在的市场已经有了一个很大而不算过火的修正。

Not a bubble, just a panic reaction. Not a ponzi scheme, an alternative global economy. It is the most important technical development since the internet came into existence.

并不是泡沫，只是一种恐慌反应。也不是什么庞氏骗局，是一个替代性的全球经济。这是自互联网诞生以来最重要的技术发展。

David Fields  @readi24
Politicians waded in with little to no knowledge and now the market has had a large and not overdue correction.

政客们几乎没有任何相关知识就介入了，而现在的市场已经有了一个大而不算过火的修正。

Economists waded in and they have plenty of knowledge. Sorry they burst your bubble.

经济学家有介入了，他们有很丰富的知识。对不起，他们戳破了你的泡沫

PuckHead  @readi24
"It is the most important technical development since the internet came into existence."

“这是互联网诞生以来最重要的技术发展。”

While the blockchain has great uses, your attempt to pump bitcoin is duly noted. You should have dumped them by now and hyperbolic accounts of it are not going to be of much use.

尽管区块链有很好的用途，但你试图鼓吹投资比特币的努力已经得到了充分的注意。你现在应该把它们都抛弃了，而夸张的账目也不会有太大用处。

Jazzo1  @David Fields
Yes, but do they know anything about bitcoin?

是的，但是他们了解比特币吗？

couldthisbeanylonger
It remained below $1,000 for 7 years, and went from $1000 to more than $14,000 in less than 12 months. If you are one of those who bought early and made some serious money, fair play. If you bought in November and genuinely believe it's an alternative to fiat currencies, or that it will reach $1 million a coin, I think you need help.

在过去的7年里，其价格一直低于1000美元，在不到12个月的时间里从1000美元飙升到了1.4万美元以上。如果你是那些买得早的人就赚了大钱了，公平的游戏。要你在11月买进的，并且真的相信它是法定货币的替代品，或者相信它能达到100万美元一枚的价格，我认为你真的就需要点帮助了。

couldthisbeanylonger  @couldthisbeanylonger
That's ￡ not $...

这是英镑不是美元……

oommph  @couldthisbeanylonger
My family (the speculative end) had / have some that hardly even count as "bought". We live in a digital centre, it's old news here. They were worth zip. It's like saying they "bought" a fiver or something, probably less.

我的家人（出于投机目的）有一些，但甚至连“买”都算不上。我们就是活在数字世界，这都是个老生常谈。它们确实应该压缩（价格）。这就像说他们“买了”五块钱或者什么，可能更少。

It was still always a "bubble" though. We knew that. 100% speculative.

尽管如此，它仍然是一个“泡沫”。我们知道，是100%的投机。

michaelmichael  @couldthisbeanylonger
"If you bought in November and genuinely believe it's an alternative to fiat currencies, or that it will reach $1 million a coin, I think you need help."

“要你在11月买进的，并且真的相信它是法定货币的替代品，或者相信它能达到100万美元一枚的价格，我认为你真的就需要点帮助了。”

or just a brain

或者仅仅是需要个脑子

Wascallywabbit
As someone who almost speculated on Bitcoin, I breathe a sigh of relief.

作为一个几乎对比特币进行投机的人，我松了一口气。

However, I feel bad for all of the naive people who purchased Bitcoin in December or January, and have now lost a lot of money. There was such media hype over the last six months that a lot of people would have bought it from a fear-of-missing-out perspective. I know I did; it seemed crazy not to join in on the magical money fountain. However, it will be the late-adopters that will have lost the most, and a smaller proportion of early adopters that sold at the right time who make the fortune. To be honest I doubt that they'll find the evidence of 'market manipulation' that they're looking for, as the hype was driven as much by the media as by any third parties. The only manipulation that may have occurred was after the launch of the futures trading, but that came after the peak.

然而，对于那些天真的在12月或1月买入比特币的人，我真的为他们感到难过，现在他们已经损失了很多钱。在过去的六个月里，由于媒体大肆宣传，很多人都以一种害怕错失机会的角度来买入了比特币。我知道我做的，似乎不加入这个神奇的货币喷泉才是疯狂的。然而，最晚的接盘侠才会是损失最大的，而且早期买入者中有一小部分人，在合适的时间卖出的话会赚大钱。老实说，我怀疑他们是否会找到正努力搜寻的“市场操纵”证据，因为媒体也和其他第三方一样在大肆炒作。唯一可能发生的操纵是在期货交易启动之后，但那是在比特币价格达到峰值之后的事。

It's a cautionary tail, and another example of the old saying "A fool and his money are soon parted". However, I doubt that we'll learn our lesson, and people will forever continue to speculate in this manner.

这条价格跌落的尾线就是个警告，而且是俗语说的“笨蛋留不住他的钱”又一例证。然而，我怀疑我们是否会吸取教训，并且人们永远都会继续通过类似的方式进行投机。

John Roycroft  @wascallywabbit
Anyone who invested more than they could afford to lose have only got themselves to blame. Buying high and selling low is an even bigger mistake. Bitcoin will eventually go way beyond 20k and their temporary paper loses would have turned into profits.

任何人超过自己能力搞投资的人都只能怪自己。高买低卖更是个大大的错误。比特币最终将超过2万的价格，而且他们暂时的票面损失都将会变成利润。

wascallywabbit  @John Roycroft
That's the difficult position people are in at the moment. Personally I'm not confident that Bitcoin will ever recover from this, and I suspect it will die out completely in the next month or two. It may recover, but I doubt it will ever attract the level of casual investment that led to the exponential growth at the end of last year.

这就是人们目前所处的困境。就我个人而言，我不相信比特币会从此恢复过来，我甚至怀疑比特币将在未来一两个月完全消失。它可能会复苏，但我怀疑它是否会达到去年年底那样随意投资的水平，呈现指数级增长。

However, as with any form of speculation, it's impossible to predict what will happen in the future. If I'd bought on the 16th of December and was now sitting on a 50% reduction in value, I'd be sweating about whether to cut my losses or hold on and risk losing everything...

然而，和任何形式的投机一样，我们不可能预测未来会发生什么。如果我是在12月16日买入的，现在就坐跌50%，我就会心冒冷汗，考虑是否要止损，或者是冒失去一切的风险再坚持下去……

PuckHead  @John Roycroft
You should be in the dump phase by now instead of the continued pump.

你现在应该转入抛售阶段，而不是继续买入了。