卫报评论首相特蕾莎·梅中国之行：英国黄金时代已失去光芒 [英国媒体]

The Guardian view on May in China: the ‘golden era’ has lost its lustre

卫报评论首相特蕾莎·梅中国之行：英国黄金时代已失去光芒



The prime minister struck a more cautious note than her predecessors on her visit to Beijing. Her approach is sensible – but she has fewer cards in her hand

英国首相特蕾莎·梅在访问北京时的态度比她的前任们更加谨慎。她的做法很明智，但是她手上的牌却不多。

Where’s the beef? Anyone looking at Theresa May’s three-day visit to China would be wise to focus on the substance: such trips have a history of over-promising and under-delivering. Yet it’s a sign of the times that the government has interpreted the question so literally, flagging up among its headline successes the possible lifting of a BSE-era ban so that British beef imports can reach Chinese tables. Overall, the package of agreements came in far short of previous visits. Though the mantra of a “golden era” of Sino-British relations was repeated, the shine has come off for both sides.

牛肉（实质性的东西）在哪里呢？如果有人要评价特蕾莎·梅为期三天的中国之行，那么侧重于实质将是明智的：这样的访问在之前就有言过其实的先例了。这是目前为止这个时代的趋势，即政府对问题的解释是如此直接，诸多的新闻头条报道中国可能取消疯牛病时代的禁令，这样进口英国牛肉就可以进入到中国人的餐桌。总的来说，此次达成的协议远远比不上之前的访问。尽管中英关系“黄金时代”的口号一再被人重复，但对于双方来说，黄金时代的光芒已经消失。

The trip, supposedly a declaration of Britain’s trade potential in the age of Brexit, was inevitably overshadowed by her own party’s wranglings over that very subject and her leadership. The relationship’s immense asymmetry has never been quite so stark. On one side, Xi Jinping, “chairman of everything”: the most powerful leader in decades of an increasingly mighty and self-confident (some say hubristic) nation. On the other, Mrs May, an enfeebled figure representing – but for how much longer? – a nation weakened and isolated by its own folly. Though we are assured she raised human rights and the parlous political situation in Hong Kong in her meetings, she did not do so publicly. A party-run tabloid even commended her for sidestepping the topic.

特蕾莎·梅此行，本应该是英国在脱欧时代一个展示其贸易潜力的机会，但是她领导的保守党内因为英国脱欧以及特蕾莎·梅的领导而争吵不休，这让特蕾莎·梅此行不可避免地蒙上了一层阴影。这种关系上巨大的不对称从未如此明显。一方面，中国国家主席，一个日益强大和自信（有人说是自大）的国家几十年来最强有力的领导人。另一方面，我们的特蕾莎·梅夫人，一个衰弱的代表人物，还有一个被自身的愚蠢削弱和孤立的国家。虽然我们确信她在会面中有提到人权以及香港不确定的政治形势，但她没有公开地那么做。一家政党小报甚至还称赞她回避了这个话题。

But there is no doubt that the prime minister’s tone on business was grittier and less compliant than that of George Osborne, who led the charge for Chinese cash, and David Cameron, who now leads the joint investment fund backing Beijing’s gargantuan Belt and Road initiative. She avoided an endorsement of the BRI infrastructure project, despite China’s blandishments. She raised intellectual property theft and steel-dumping.

但毫无疑问的是，特蕾莎·梅在贸易上的语气比英国前财政大臣乔治·奥斯本，以及前首相卡梅伦更加强硬、更不妥协。乔治·奥斯本曾经积极推动人民币国际化。而大卫·卡梅伦现在正负责一个支持中国一带一路倡议的联合投资项目。尽管中国向特蕾莎·梅示好，但是她回避对一带一路基础设施项目做出认可。她提到了知识产权盗窃和钢铁倾销。

Some of this reflects her lack of international vision, some a sensible caution. But another factor is that the wider mood has shifted as governments realise that China’s economic development will not translate to social and political alignment, as they once complacently assumed. 

特蕾莎的行为一些反映了她缺乏国际视野，有一些则是明智的谨慎。但另一个因素是，各国政府原本认为中国的经济发展不会转移到社会和政治层面，但是现在更广泛的舆论已经转变。

Most of all, there is anxiety about China’s sheer confidence, fuelled by Donald Trump’s election and the Brexit vote. It is no longer biding its time but making increasingly bold statements about its place: proclaiming a new era, declaring its ambitions for “a new type of international relations” and lauding “the China Solution” to global travails.

最重要的是，中国的信心满满让人产生焦虑，唐纳德·特朗普的竞选以及英国脱欧公投都助长了这一焦虑。中国不再是等待时机而是发表越来越多大胆的陈述：宣告一个新时代，表明其野心，建立“一种新型国际关系”和解决全球困境的“中国方案”。

Such developments not only give Britain pause for thought, but a concrete motivation to temper its enthusiasm, with an eye to its own relations with a China-hostile US administration and Europeans anxious about the BRI. Mrs May’s remarks on the BRI were similar to Emmanuel Macron’s; that they were more muted reflects her personal style, political status and most of all her lack of leverage – so powerfully demonstrated by the last few days. Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, admitted both that a free trade deal with Beijing is “some time away” and that Britain could increase bilateral trade without leaving the EU. Meanwhile, the leaked government analysis showing that the UK will be worse off under any Brexit scenario also showed how limited the scope is for losses to be offset by new trade deals, including one with China.

中国这样的发展，不仅让英国停下来想一想，而且还缓和了英国的热情，因为考虑到与中国关系敌对的美国政府以及欧洲人对一带一路的焦虑感。特蕾莎·梅夫人对一带一路的评价与法国总统马克龙相似；他们都更温和地反映了自己的个人风格，政治地位，以及最重要的---缺乏影响力，过去几天有力地证明了这一点。英国国际贸易大臣利亚姆·福克斯也承认，英国与中国自由贸易的时代已经远去，而且不脱离欧盟的话英国可以增加更多的双边贸易。同时，泄露的政府分析文章显示，英国在任何英国脱欧情景下都将面临更加糟糕的情况，而且通过（包括与中国）达成新的贸易协议所能抵消的损失也很有限。