中国军事力量的“全球化” [英国媒体]

The 'globalisation' of China's military power

中国军事力量的“全球化”

时间：2018-2-13



China's modernisation of its armed forces is proceeding faster than many analysts expected.

中国军队的现代化进程比许多分析家预期的要快。

Now, according to experts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies - the IISS - in London, it is China and no longer Russia, that increasingly provides the benchmark against which Washington judges the capability requirements for its own armed forces.

现在，根据伦敦国际战略研究所(IISS)的专家们的说法，是中国，而不再是俄罗斯，越来越多地提供了一个让华盛顿能够判断其自身武装力量的能力要求基准。

This is especially true in terms of air and naval forces - the focus of China's modernisation effort. Events in Europe mean that for the US Army, it is still largely Russian capabilities that provide the benchmark threat.

在空军和海军方面尤其如此——这是中国现代化努力的重点。欧洲发生的事件意味着，对于美国军队来说，依然主要是俄罗斯的能力提供了基准威胁。

This trend has been chronicled in the Military Balance, the annual assessment of global military capabilities and defence spending, published by the IISS since 1959.

这一趋势已被记录在军事平衡、全球军事能力和国防开支的年度评估上。

Of course the transformation of the Chinese military has been under way for some time. But now a significant way-point has been reached - or is very close - that will make it the "peer competitor" for Washington.

当然，中国军队的转型已经进行了一段时间。但是现在已经达到了一个重要的节点——或者非常接近——这将使它成为华盛顿的“平等竞争者”。

Ahead of the publication of this year's Military Balance later this week, I sat down with a group of IISS experts to try to tease out more of the details of this trend, providing a powerful narrative to the annual compendium's tables and statistics.

在本周晚些时候公布今年的《军事平衡》之前，我与一群国际战略研究所的专家们坐下来，试图梳理出这一趋势的更多细节，以为年度纲要和统计数据提供有力的说明。

China's progress and technical abilities are remarkable - from ultra-long-range conventional ballistic missiles to fifth generation fighter jets. Last year the first hull of China's latest warship - the Type 55 cruiser - was put into the water. Its capabilities would give any Nato navy pause for thought.

从超远程常规弹道导弹到第五代战斗机，中国的进步和技术能力令人瞩目。去年，中国最新的一艘军舰——055型巡洋舰——下水。它的能力将使任何北约海军停下来三思而行。

China is working on its second aircraft carrier. It is revamping its military command structure to give genuine joint headquarters involving all the key services. In terms of artillery, air defence and land attack it has weapons that out-range anything the US can deploy.

中国正在研制它的第二艘航空母舰。它正在修改其军事指挥结构，以使真正的联合总部参与所有关键的项目。在火炮、防空和地面攻击方面，它拥有的武器射程超过美国可以部署的任何武器。

Since the late 1990s, when it received an influx of advanced Russian technology, the Chinese Navy has recapitalised the bulk of its surface and sub-surface fleets.

自上世纪90年代末以来，中国海军在接收到大量先进的俄罗斯技术后，已对其大部分水面和水下舰队进行了重组。

In the air, its new single-seat fighter, the J-20, is said by the Chinese to be in operational service.

在空中，它的新单座战斗机J-20，据说已经在中国正式入役。

It is what is known in the trade as a "fifth generation fighter", meaning that it incorporates stealth technology; it has a supersonic cruising speed; and highly integrated avionics.

这就是众所周知的“第五代战斗机”，也就是说它包含了隐形技术;它有超音速巡航速度;和高度集成的航空电子设备。

IISS experts remain sceptical.

国际战略研究所的专家们对其仍持怀疑态度。

"The Chinese Air Force", they say, "still needs to develop suitable tactics to operate the low-observable jet and must come up with doctrines to mix these 'fifth generation' warplanes with earlier 'fourth generation models'.

“中国空军”，他们说，“仍然需要发展合适的战术来操作低视距的喷气式飞机，并且必须提出一些理论，将这些‘第五代’战斗机与早期的‘四代型机’混编在一起。”

"Still, China's progress is clear," they say, "you can add to these aircraft a whole range of capable air-to-air missiles that are every bit on a par with those in Western arsenals."

“尽管如此，中国的进步还是很明显的，”他们说，“你可以为这些飞机加载具有各种能力的空空导弹，这些导弹与西方武器库中的每一枚都相差无几。”

This year's Military Balance devotes a whole chapter to developments in Chinese and Russian air-launched weapons which they see as a key test for western dominance.

今年的《军事平衡》为中国和俄罗斯的空中武器研发单列了一个完整的章节，他们认为这是对西方主导地位的一个关键考验。

The US and its allies have waged air campaigns since the end of the Cold War and have lost very few aircraft. But this dominance, according to the IISS, may be increasingly challenged. China, for example, is developing a very long-range air-to-air missile intended specifically to strike at tanker and command and control aircraft ; essential but vulnerable elements in any air operation.

自冷战结束以来，美国及其盟友一直在进行空中打击，并且只损失了很少的飞机。但国际战略研究所表示，这种主导地位可能正日益受到挑战。例如，中国正在研制一种非常远程的空空导弹，目的是打击空中加油机和指挥控制飞机;这些在任何空中操作中都是必需的但易受伤害的目标。

The authors of the Military Balance argue China's air-to-air missile developments by 2020, "will likely force the US and its regional allies to re-examine not only their tactics, techniques and procedures, but also the direction of their own combat-aerospace development programmes".

《军事平衡》的作者认为，到2020年，中国的空空导弹发展“将可能迫使美国及其地区盟友重新审视他们的战术、技术和程序，以及他们自己的航空作战发展计划的方向”。

On land the Chinese army is lagging behind in this modernisation effort according to the IISS. Only about half of its equipment is serviceable in terms of modern combat.

根据国际战略研究所的研究，中国军队在这一现代化进程中落后于其他国家。只有大约一半的装备可用于现代化战争中。

But even here progress is being made. China has set a goal of 2020 as the date to achieve both "mechanisation" and what it calls "informisation". Quite what China means by this is latter term is unclear, but Beijing has been watching the developing role of information in warfare and seeking to adapt this to its own particular circumstances.

但即使在这方面也正在取得进展。中国将2020年的目标定为实现“机械化”和“信息化”的目标。中国这么做的意义是什么，目前还不清楚，但中国政府一直在关注信息化在战争中的作用，并试图将其适应于自身的特殊情况。

China has one clear strategic aim in mind to which many of its new weapons systems are tailored. In the event of a conflict, this is to push US military power as far away from its shores as possible, ideally deep into the Pacific. This strategy is known in military jargon as "anti-access area denial" - sometimes abbreviated as A2AD. This explains China's focus on long-range air and maritime systems that can hold the US Navy's carrier battle groups at risk.

中国有一个明确的战略目标，那就是它的许多新武器系统都是量身定制的。如果发生冲突，这将使美国的军事力量尽可能远离其海岸，最好是深入太平洋。这种策略在军事术语中被称为“区域拒止反介入”——有时缩写为A2AD。这解释了中国对远程空中和海上战斗系统的关注，这些系统可以让美国海军的航母战斗群处于危险之中。

So as a military player China has pretty well joined the Premier League. But this though is not the end of Beijing's global military impact. It is also pursuing an ambitious arms export strategy. Often China is willing to sell advanced technologies that other countries either do not have, or are unwilling to sell to all but their closest allies.

作为一名军事方面的玩家，中国已经很好地加入了这个超级联赛。但这并不是北京全球军事影响力的终点。中国还在推行雄心勃勃的武器出口战略。中国通常愿意出售其他国家没有的先进技术，或者不愿向所有人出售但可以向他们最亲密的盟友出售。

The market for armed drones is a case in point. This is a rapidly spreading technology that raises huge questions about the boundary between peace and war. The US, which was one of the pioneers in this field, has refused to sell sophisticated armed drones to anyone except a limited number of its closest Nato allies like the United Kingdom. France, which already operates US-supplied Reaper drones, has plans to arm drones as well.

武装无人机市场就是一个很好的例子。这是一项迅速传播的技术，它引发了关于和平与战争之间边界的巨大问题。美国是这一领域的先驱者之一，除了向它的北约盟国(如英国)出售数量有限的武装无人机外，它拒绝向任何人出售先进的武装无人机。法国已经有了美国供应的“收割者”无人机，它也同样有武装无人机计划。

China has had no such constraints, displaying impressive unmanned aerial vehicles alongside the various munitions that they can carry at arms shows around the world. The IISS Military Balance says that China has sold its armed UAVs to a number of countries including Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Myanmar, among others.

中国没有这样的限制，他们在全世界的武器展上展示了令人印象深刻的无人驾驶飞行器及其可以携带的各种弹药。国际战略研究所《军事平衡》称，中国已将其武装无人机出售给包括埃及、尼日利亚、巴基斯坦、沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯联合酋长国和缅甸在内的多个国家。

This is a very good example of unintended consequences. Washington's reluctance to sell this technology leaves the field open to Beijing. Inevitably this has a wider role in the spread of such weapons, encouraging other countries who operate UAVs solely for intelligence gathering purposes to seek armed variants as well.

这是关于意外后果的一个很好的例子。华盛顿方面不愿出售这一技术，使该领域向北京开放。不可避免的使其在这种武器的传播中发挥了更广泛的作用，鼓励其他使用无人机的国家，仅仅为了情报收集目的而同样寻求武装无人机的多样化。



US and Western arms exporters see China as a growing commercial threat. Compared with even a decade ago, there is a serious Chinese presence in the marketplace, offering good quality equipment. China, as the armed UAV example illustrates, is also willing to enter markets which many Western manufacturers, or their governments, see as being too sensitive.

美国和西方武器出口商将中国视为日益严重的商业威胁。与十年前相比，中国在市场上存在着一种严肃的态度，提供了优质的设备。正如武装无人机的例子所示，中国也愿意进入许多西方制造商或其政府认为过于敏感的市场。

And as the IISS experts told me, China tends to win on all aspects of the deal. Typically Chinese weaponry will give you 75% of the capability of the available Western technology for 50% of the price. In business terms it's a strong offer.

正如国际战略研究所专家告诉我的，中国倾向于在交易的各个方面赢得胜利。典型的中国武器会给你75%程度的西方技术的能力和50%的价格。在商业方面，这是一个很好的选择。

China's ground warfare exports are less impressive. They still have to compete for customers with countries like Russia and Ukraine. But when Kiev couldn't meet the timeframe for a tank deal with Thailand in 2014, the Thais bought Chinese VT4 tanks instead. Last year Thailand went back for more.

中国的地面武器出口就不那么令人印象深刻了。他们仍然需要与像俄罗斯和乌克兰这样的国家竞争客户。但当2014年基辅无法满足与泰国达成坦克交易的时间表时，泰国人转而购买了中国的VT4坦克。去年，泰国又回头买了更多的中国坦克。



IISS experts say that China is also trying to develop weaponry tailored to specific markets. They point to a new light tank for example intended for African countries, whose roads and infrastructure would not be able to cope with many of the heavier models offered by others.

国际战略研究所的专家们称，中国也在努力开发针对特定市场的武器。他们以为非洲国家提供的一种新的轻型坦克为例，这些国家的道路和基础设施将无法应付其他国家提供的许多吨位较重的型号。

China's growing role as a source of sophisticated weaponry is something that is worrying many countries and not just its neighbours. Western air forces have enjoyed some three decades of dominance. But the "anti-access" strategy of the Chinese has provided weapons that could easily be employed by others to do the same thing.

中国作为尖端武器来源国的角色日益增强，这令不仅限于其邻国的许多国家担忧。西方空军已经享受了30年的统治地位。但中国的“反介入”战略提供了一些武器，这些武器很容易被其他国家用来做同样的事情。

A Western European country may never face China in a conflict, but it could well face sophisticated Chinese weapons systems in the hands of others. As one IISS expert put it, "the perception that you will enter a low-risk environment when intervening overseas, now needs to be questioned."

一个西欧国家可能永远不会在冲突中面对中国，但它很可能在其他国家的手中面对复杂的中国武器系统。正如一位国际战略研究所的专家所说，“当你在海外进行干预时，你会进入一个低风险的环境，现在这种情况需要被打上一个问号。