国际能源署主任警告：中国做出“重现蓝天”的承诺将会震动国际能源市场 [英国媒体]

China’s pledge to make the ‘skies blue again’will shake up global energy markets, IEA director warns

国际能源署主任警告：中国做出“重现蓝天”的承诺将会震动国际能源市场

China is set to more than triple its nuclear energy capacity over the next20 years, overtaking the U.S. to become the world’s largest nuclear-powerproducer, according to the International Energy Agency.

国际能源署估计，中国准备在未来20年内实现核能产业三倍以上的增长，超过美国成为世界上最大的核电生产国。

Speaking at the International Petroleum Week conference in London onWednesday, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol expressed concerns that the U.S.and Europe aren’t investing enough in nuclear power, while China is chargingahead.

在星期三的“伦敦国际石油周”会议上，国际能源署主任法蒂-比罗尔表达了他的担忧，当中国正在核能领域快速发展的时候，而美国和欧盟却停滞了对核能的投资。

“China is coming back strong. Today there areabout 60 nuclear power plants under construction and more than one third ofthem are in China. China is growing and as a result of that we’ll soon seeChina overtaking the United States as the number 1 nuclear power in the world,”he said.

他说：“中国正在重现过往的强大。现今世界上有约60个在建的核电站而超过三分之一都是在中国建造。中国正在成长并且因此我们将很快看到中国超越美国成为世界第一的核能大国。

He noted that the U.S. has been the globalleader in nuclear power since the 1960s, but said that two trends arethreatening to knock the country out of the top spot: Very few additions tonuclear capacity and no lifetime extensions for the existing power plants. Thesame goes for Europe, he said, where major nuclear player France has seenoutput decline sharply in recent years.

他特别指出，美国自二十世纪60年代以来一直是国际核能源的领导者，但是由于两个趋势所致将跌落领导者的宝座：一方面对核能发展渐缓，另一方面没有为现有的发电厂延续使用寿命。这也同样适用于欧盟，他说，近年来主要的核能产业大国法国的产量也在急剧下降。

“If it continues like that, the U.S. nuclearcapacity will go from 20% [of overall power supply] to 7%,” Birol said.

“长此以往，美国的核工业生产能力将从20%（以整体能源的角度）下降到7%。”比罗尔说。

“This has many implications in terms of energy.I can tell you that what is happening is the same story as we’ve seen in solar.[China] is learning by doing, bringing costs down and therefore [they] are nowready to export [their] technology and are much more cost effective thanothers. And [they] challenge the established exporters such as the U.S., Japan,Korea and European countries,” he said.

“这在能源方面有许多影响。我可以告诉你同样的事在太阳能产业上也曾发生过。中国在实践中学习以此来降低成本，现在正准备以比他国更具成本效益的方式出口他们的技术，与此同时他们向太阳能产业现有的出口国发起挑战，比如美国、日本、韩国和欧洲国家。

Fatih expects China to overtake the U.S. as thebiggest nuclear nation by 2030, as shown in this chart below.

正如下列图表所示，法蒂预计中国将于2030年超越美国成为全球最大的核能产业国家。



China’s push into nuclear power comes as thecountry changes course from being an economy focused on rapid,manufacturing-based growth to lift the masses out of poverty, to a moreservice-based economy with a stronger focus on clean energy. This narrativefurther gained support last year when Premier Li Keqiang pledged to make thecountry’s smoggy skies “blue again.”

中国在推进核电发展之际，将经济重心由快速发展、以制造业为基础的经济增长、群众脱贫转为以服务业为基础的经济，更加注重清洁能源。

The IEA expects the nuclear power capacity inChina to make up 4% of the country’s total power supply in 2040, up from 2% in2016, according to data on the agency’s website. Overall power supply acrossall energy sources is expected to double from 1,625 gigawatt in 2016 to 3,188GW in 2040. That means nuclear capacity is forecast to more than triple from 32.5GW to 127.52 GW.

国际能源机构预计2040年中国的核能发电将占中国总电力供应的4%，高于2016年的2%。所有能源的总电力供应预计将从2016年的16250亿瓦增加一倍，至2040年的31880亿瓦。这意味着核发电量预计将从325亿瓦增至1275.2亿瓦



Birol also identified China’s drive to make theskies blue again as one of four “major upheavals” that will reshape the energymarkets in the coming decades.

比罗尔还指出中国致力于重现蓝天的举措，是未来几十年内将大举重塑能源市场的四个大动荡之一。

“I will give you an example... Only five monthsago the Chinese government took a decision to limit the use of coal and move to[liquefied natural gas]. As a result of that, Chinese LNG import increased morethan 50% and LNG prices doubled from $6 to $12 dollars in Asia pacific region,”he said.

“我将给你举个例子…仅5个月前，中国政府决定限制煤炭的使用，改用液化天然气。结果，中国的液化天然气进口增长超过50%，在亚太地区天然气价格翻了一倍，从6美元涨至12美元。

“When Chinachanges, everything changes... The new China energy policies mean a new phasefor the global energy markets,” he added.

“当中国有所改变，一切都改变了…新的中国能源政策意味着全球能源市场的一个新阶段。”他补充道，

The three other major upheavals laid out by Birolwere U.S. oil and gas production, solar power and the “electrification of oureconomies.”

比罗尔提出的另外三个“大动荡分别是美国的石油和天然气生产，太阳能和“我们经济的电气化”