RBS经济学家称在股市崩盘前变卖一切 [英国媒体]

Selleverything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economists

RBS经济学家称在股市崩盘前变卖一切



RoyalBank of Scotlandwarns of ‘cataclysmic’ year with slumps in shares and oil and advises clientsto shift to bonds

苏格兰皇家银行警告说今年是“灾难性的”一年，股票和油价大幅下跌，并建议客户转向债券投资。

Stock markets have already come undersevere pressure in 2016, with the FTSE 100 down more than 5% in its worst startsince 2000. Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA

至2016年，股票市场已经面临着严重的压力，富时指数公司相比其2000年最糟糕的开端来说都下跌了超5个百分点。摄像：Andy Rain/EPA

Investors face a “cataclysmic year” where stock markets could fall by up to 20%and oil could slump to $16 (￡11) a barrel, economistsat the Royal Bank of Scotland have warned.

投资者面临着“灾难性的一年”，在这一年里，股市可能会下滑高达20个百分点，油价可能会暴跌至每桶16美元（11英镑），英格兰皇家银行的经济学家发出了这样的警告。

In a note to its clients the bank said: “Sell everything except high qualitybonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowdedhall, exit doors are small.” It said the current situation was reminiscent of2008, when the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank led to theglobal financial crisis. This time China could be the crisis point.

该银行在发给客户的一份报告中说道:“将除了高质量债券以外的所有东西都变卖掉。这是要让资本返还,而不是得到资本收益。跻身于一个拥挤的大厅中,通往出口的门却那么小。”它说目前的情况让人想起2008年,当时是雷曼兄弟投资银行的崩溃导致了全球金融危机。这一次中国可能会是危机的起点。

Stock markets have already come under severe pressure in 2016, with the FTSE100 down more than 5% in its worst start since 2000. In the US, the Dow Jones industrial averagehas made its poorest ever start to a year.

至2016年，股票市场已经面临着严重的压力，富时指数公司相比其2000年最糟糕的开端来说都下跌了超5个百分点。在美国,道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数已经取得了有史以来一年开端的最低点。

Oil prices have also fallen sharply on fears of lower demand and a supply glut,especially with Irandue to start exporting once more when sanctions are lifted. Tensions between Iranand Saudia Arabia make it less likely that Opec can agree to cut production tohalt the slide in prices. Brent crude is down another 1% at $31.18, its lowestlevel since April 2004.

由于害怕需求降低和供应过剩,石油价格也开始大幅下降,尤其是当制裁被解除时与伊朗开始再一次的出口。伊朗和沙特阿拉伯之间的紧张关系，使得石油输出国组织不太可能同意通过减产的方式来阻止价格继续下跌。布伦特原油价格又下跌了1%,降至31.18美元,这是自2004年4月以来的最低水平。

Investors have been spooked by fears of a severe slowdown in the Chineseeconomy and a fall in the value of the yuan, not helped by a crash in thecountry’s stock market despite attempts by the country’s authorities to curtailselling.

投资者们非常担心严重放缓的中国经济和人民币的大幅贬值，尽管该国政府已作出努力试图限制销售，但该国股市仍旧崩盘，这让投资者们更加担心。

AndrewRoberts, RBS’s credit chief, said: “China has setoff a major correction and it is going to snowball. Equities and credit havebecome very dangerous, and we have hardly even begun to retrace the ‘Goldilockslove-in’ of the last two years.”

安德鲁·罗伯茨,苏格兰皇家银行的信贷负责人表示:“中国已经启动了重大调整，并将像滚雪球一样滚下去。股票和信贷已经变得非常危险,我们现在都很难追溯得到过去两年的那种“金发女孩谈情说爱的集会”了。

Markets have been supported for some time by low interest rates, stimulusmeasures from central banks including quantitative easing, and hopes ofeconomic recovery. But with the Federal Reserve raising rates and the Bank ofEngland expected to follow suit, that prop is being removed.

有一段时间市场一直都由低利率、从中央银行所颁布的包括量化宽松政策等在内的刺激措施、和对经济复苏的希望所支持着。但随着美联储提高利率，而英国央行也随之效仿,这份支持便被移除了。

Roberts said European and US markets could fall by 10% to 20%, with the FTSE100 particularly at risk due to the predominance of commodity companies in the UKindex. “Londonis vulnerable to a negative shock. All these people who are long [buyers of]oil and mining companies thinking that the dividends are safe are going todiscover that they’re not at all safe.

罗伯茨说,欧洲和美国市场可能会下降10%至20%,由于在英国指数中商品公司的显着性，富时指数公司尤其首当其冲。“伦敦是很容易受到负面冲击的。所有这些认为股息还很安全的长期的石油(买家)和矿业公司，都将会发现那些股息根本就不安全。

“We suspect 2016 will be characterised by more focus on howthe exiting occurs of positions in the three main asset classes that benefitedfrom quantitative easing: 1) emerging markets, 2) credit, 3) equities …Risks are high.”

“我们猜想2016年的特点将会是，更加关注在三个主要的资产类别中，出路所占的位置是怎样的，这三个主要的资产类别都得益于量化宽松：1）新兴市场，2）信贷，3）股票……风险很高。”

RBS is not the only negative voice at the moment. Analysts at JP Morgan haveadvised clients to sell stocks on any bounce.

苏格兰皇家银行并不是当时唯一的负面声音。摩根大通公司的分析师建议客户只要一有反弹就赶紧卖出股票。

Morgan Stanley has said oil could fall to $20 a barrel, while StandardChartered has predicted an even bigger slide, to as low as $10. Standard said:“Given that no fundamental relationship is currently driving the oil markettowards any equilibrium, prices are being moved almost entirely by financialflows caused by fluctuations in other asset prices, including the US dollar andequity markets.

摩根士丹利表示,油价可能降至每桶20美元,而渣打集团还预测到会有一个更大的下滑,低至10美元。渣打集团表示:“鉴于目前没有基本关系能推动石油市场趋向平衡,价格的波动几乎完全是由由其他资产价格的波动产生的金融流动所控制的,其中包括美元和股市。

“We think prices could fall as low as $10 a barrel before most of the moneymanagers in the market conceded that matters had gone too far.”

“我们认为在市场上的大多数基金经理承认事情发展已经不受控制之前，价格可能就会下跌至每桶10美元。”


ElfenLied2 
7h ago
'Stocks are low, this is when you sell them to us, we'll sell them back to you once they are high again'

“股价很低的时候，你们就卖给我们，一旦价格再次升高，我们就又买回给你们”

Ftisr Lsat 
7h ago
Isn't it illegal to shout "Fire" in a crowded room when there is non? So why is this so called "analyst" not in jail?

在一个拥挤的房间里，当没有人开火时，大叫“开火”，这是不是违法的？那么为什么这位所谓的“分析家”没有进监狱？

ElfenLied2  Ftisr Lsat 
7h ago
In China maybe.

在中国可能就进了。

pjdxxxwa 
8h ago
How will this affect the ecomony in America ? I don't trust the advisors here to tell me the truth.

这将如何影响美国的经济发展？我不相信这里的顾问，告诉我真相。

Cathair Patrick 
9h ago
How many times does this have to happen before the world sees sense and creates a stable financial and economic system that doesn't resemble a game of Blackjack?

这种事要发生多少次，这个世界才能意识到并创建起一个稳定的、不像21点游戏的金融经济系统？

Rex Newborn 
9h ago
They are right. If you have RBS stock sell it. Sold mine years ago when I decided it was not going to recover in my lifetime.

他们说得对。如果你有苏格兰皇家银行的股票，那就卖掉吧。好几年前当我觉得它在我有生之年不会再恢复的时候，我就将其卖掉了

rrstarkeable68
13 Jan 2016 09:01
i dont quite follow - what do you mean?

我不太明白——你是什么意思？

DavidHoddSivanK
13 Jan 2016 08:37
"Regulated Capitalism" - so you advocate yet more red tape and quangos then?You realise regulation and capitalism are contradictory - regulation distorts a truly free market.

“监管下的资本主义”——所以你提倡的只是更多的繁文缛节和半官方机构，然后?你意识到监管和资本主义是相矛盾的——监管扭曲了真正的自由市场。

JRandomHackerigazsag
13 Jan 2016 08:09
Thanks for the free clue; I should've fact-checked that.

谢谢你的免费线索；我应该核查事实的。

Steve Jonesaardrat
13 Jan 2016 07:59
Socialism is just another word for poverty Words have meanings. Otherwise I could say blancmange is another word for ball-point pen.

社会主义只是贫穷的另一个表达词
词都是有各自的意义的。否则我就可以说牛奶冻就是圆珠笔的另一个表达词

MadriMaraffcheveguara
13 Jan 2016 07:51
The problem is that however you set the system up, it gets undermined by human nature. What you really need is to start wit better humans ...

问题是,不管你建立起来的是怎样的系统,它都会受到人性的破坏。你真正所需要的是开始启发更好的人类……

MadriMaraffShatford Shatford
13 Jan 2016 07:48
Wasn't Warren Buffet's advice "When the market is old, be cautious; when the market is cautious, be bold" or somesuch?

不是有巴菲特的建议“当市场呈现老态时，小心谨慎一点；当市场开始持谨慎态度时，就大胆一点”或是什么类似的？

KaitainTristanJakobHoff
13 Jan 2016 07:39
(Or partner, I should say.)

（或者是搭档，我应该说。）

KaitainTristanJakobHoff
13 Jan 2016 07:38
Yes I am connected with analysts - my other half is one.
Perhaps your wife is among the 20%?

是的，我与分析家联系过——我的另一半就是一位。
也许你的妻子就在那20%的行列中？

Joy Dotmisterbaxter
13 Jan 2016 07:32
well then, when women are running the joint and screwing it up mehn will be off the hook. what a relief that will be for all downtrodden hapless mehn...

那么，当妇女们联合起来推翻体制的时候，男人们就将能摆脱困境了。对于所有被压迫的倒霉的男人而言，这真是大大的舒了一口气……

AltricioChookyminkey
13 Jan 2016 07:31
'coz the alternative will be what? Rely on your gambler's instinct?

因为那替代品将会是什么？就依靠你们这些赌徒的直觉？

Joy DotMrakS
13 Jan 2016 07:29
good point. i'd say only females but my son would have been an asset (: , he cant be alone. lets rest on screening male toddlers - the ones that dont get through dig forever. in siberia. minimum wage.2-3 times a day dog lovers congratulate me for choosing female puppy - i didnt realise it made such a diff. in animal world being female is an asset. ironic.

说得好。我得说只有女性还有我的儿子可以是一个资产(:，他不能独自呆着。让我们依靠拍摄那些男童吧——那些还没有度过挖坑痴迷期的孩子。在西比利亚。最低工资。一天会有2-3位爱狗人士祝贺我挑选到了小母狗——我并没有意识到这也会有如此大的成就。在动物世界，雌性动物就是一种资产。真讽刺。