不要在这些全球经济恐慌上指责中国 [英国媒体]

-------------译者：ooohmygod-审核者：水 古 月------------



作者：英国剑桥大学政治经济学系张夏准(Ha-Joon Chang)博士

In truth the west failed to learn from the 2008 crash. Any economic ‘recovery’ was built on asset bubbles

事实上，西方并未从08年的金融危机中吸取教训。所有的经济“复苏”都是构建在资产泡沫之上的。

The US stock market has just had the worst start to a year in its history. At the same time, European and Japanese stock markets have lost around 10% and 15% of their values respectively; the Chinese stock market hasresumed its headlong dash downward; and the oil price has fallen to the lowest level in 12 years, reflecting (and anticipating) worldwide economic slowdown；

美国股市迎来了史上开局最差的一年。与此同时，欧洲和日本股市分别蒸发了10%和15%的市值；中国股市则延续了之前的猛烈跌势；同时油价降至了12年新低，反映出了世界经济减速的趋势。

According to the dominant economic narrative of recent times, 2016 was the year when the world economy would recover fully from the 2008 crash. The US would lead this recovery by generating growth and jobs via fiscal conservatism and pro-business policies. Reflecting the economy’s robust growth, the US stock market reached new heights in 2015, although disrupted by the mess in the Chinese stock market over the summer. By last October, US unemployment had fallen from the post-crisis peak of 10% to 5%, bringing it back close to the pre-crisis low. In a show of confidence, last month the US Federal Reserve finally raised its interest rate for the first time in nine years.

根据近代经济发展的进程来看，全球经济本应自2008金融危机后于2016年满血复活。美国本应通过财政保守主义和利商政策，来促进经济增长和增加就业，从而引导这次经济复苏。尽管被中国股市在夏天的糟糕表现有所扰乱，美国股市仍于2015年升到新的高点，反映出了经济的强劲增长。直至去年十月，美国的失业率由危机后的10%的峰值，降至了危机前的5%的低点。上个月美国联邦储备委员会于九年后第一次上调了利率，则表明了这种信心。

 -------------译者：雅丽山大-审核者：雅丽山大------------

Not far behind the US, the story goes, have been Britain and Ireland. Hit harder than the US by the financial crisis, they have,
however, recovered handsomely because they kept their nerve and stuck to the right, if unpopular, policies. Spending cuts, focused on
wasteful welfare spending, accelerated job creation by making it more difficult for people to live off the taxpayer. They sensibly
didn’t give in to the banker-bashers and chose not to over-regulate the financial sector.

除了美国，还有英国和爱尔兰。两国比美国遭受了更严重的金融打击，然后两国恢复良好，因为两国保持镇定并采取了正确（虽然不一定是受欢迎的）的政策。开销削减，将注意力放在了浪费性的福利开销上，通过削减福利从而迫使人们去创造更多的就业机会。他们没有向银行家抨击者屈服，从而没有对金融部门进行过度的监管。

Even the continental European economies have been finally picking up, it was said, having accepted the need for fiscal discipline,
labour market reform and cutting business regulations. The world – at least the rich world – was finally set for a full recovery. So
what has gone wrong?

即使是欧洲大陆的经济也终于所有起色，财政上自律，改革劳动力市场，以及减少商业监管。全世界——至少是富人世界——已经做好了全力复苏的准备。所以到底哪里出了问题？

-------------译者：雅丽山大-审核者：雅丽山大------------

Those who put forward the narrative are now trying to blame China in advance for the coming economic woes. George Osborne has been at
the forefront, warning this month of a “dangerous cocktail of new threats” in which the duation of the Chinese currency and the fall
in oil prices(both in large part due to China’s economic slowdown)figured most prominently. If our recovery was to be blown off
course, he implied, it would be because China had mismanaged its economy.

编造这些故事的人在努力把即将到来的金融困境的责任推给中国。乔治·奥斯本是活跃于最前方的，本月他警告道人民币贬值和石油价格的下跌构成了危险的新威胁（很大程度上都是中国经济发展速度减缓造成的）。要是我们的经济复苏偏离了轨道，他暗示道，那是因为中国对经济监管不力。

China is, of course, an important factor in the global economy. Only 2.5% of the world economy in 1978, on the eve of its economic
reform, it now accounts for around 13%. However, its importance should not be exaggerated. As of 2014, the US (22.5%) the eurozone
(17%) and Japan (7%) together accounted for nearly half of the world economy. The rich world vastly overshadows China. Unless you are
a developing economy whose export basket is mainly made up of primary commodities destined for China, you cannot blame your economic
ills on its slowdown.

中国当然是全球经济的重要部分。在中国经济改革前的1978年中国仅占全球经济的2.5%。现在已经大概占到13%。然而其重要性不应该被过度夸大。截止2014年，美国（22.5%）欧元区（17%）日本（7%）加起来差不多全球经济的一半。发达国家大大盖过了中国的风头。除非你是一个出口产品主要运往中国的发展中国家，否则你不能将自己的经济问题归咎于中国的经济放缓。

 -------------译者：ooohmygod-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

The truth is that there has never been a real recovery from the 2008 crisis in North America and western Europe. According to the IMF, at the end of 2015, inflation-adjusted income per head (in national currency) was lower than the pre-crisis peak in 11 out of 20 of those countries. In five (Austria, Iceland, Ireland, Switzerland and the UK), it was only just higher – by between 0.05% (Austria) and 0.3% (Ireland). Only in four countries – Germany, Canada, the US and Sweden – was per-capita income materially higher than the pre-crisis peak.

事实上，北美和西欧并未真正从2008金融危机中复苏。根据国际货币基金组织的数据，这20个国家中有11个，在剔除了通货膨胀因素后的人均收入（以本国货币计算）低于了危机前。其中五个国家（奥地利、冰岛、爱尔兰、瑞士和英国）只有轻微上涨，介于0.05%（奥地利）和0.3%（爱尔兰）之间。只有四个国家——德国、加拿大、美国和瑞典——人均国民收入比危机前的峰值有了极大涨幅。

Even in Germany, the best performing of those four countries, per capita income growth rate was just 0.8% a year between its last peak (2008) and 2015. The US growth rate, at 0.4% per year, was half that. Compare that with the 1% annual growth rate that Japan notched up during its so-called “lost two decades” between 1990 and 2010.

即使是这些国家中表现最好的德国，人均国民收入也仅仅每年增长了0.8%，介于峰值（2008年）与2015年之间。美国的增长率为每年0.4%，仅为德国的一半。将之与日本人自称的“失去的二十年”比较一下吧，在1990年和2010年之间，日本的年增长率为1%。

 -------------译者：z8975623-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

To make things worse, much of the recovery has been driven by asset market bubbles, blown up by the injection of cash into the financial market through quantitative easing. These asset bubbles have been most dramatic in the US and UK. They were already at an unprecedented level in 2013 and 2014, but scaled new heights in 2015. The US stock market reached the highest ever level in May 2015 and, after the dip over the summer, more or less came back to that level in December. Having come down by nearly a quarter from its April 2015 peak, Britain’s stock market is currently not quite so inflated, but the UK has another bubble to reckon with, in the housing market, where prices are 7% higher than the pre-crisis peak of 2007.

更糟糕的是，大多数的经济复苏都是依靠资产泡沫来推动的，这些泡沫是由通过量化宽松投入金融市场的资金引起的。这些资产泡沫在美国和英国最引人注目。他们已经在2013年和2014年达到了一个空前的水平，但是在2015年又达到一个新的高度。英国的证券市场在2015年5月份曾一度达到最高水平，接着，在经过夏季的下跌后，或多或少的在12月份又再次达到最高水平。在下跌了将近2015年4月份峰值的4分之1后，如今英国证券市场不再那么的膨胀了，不过英国还有另一个泡沫要应对，其房地产市场价格比危机爆发前的2007年峰值价格要高出7%。

Thus seen, the main causes of the current economic turmoil lie firmly in the rich nations – especially in the finance-driven US and UK. Having refused to fundamentally restructure their economies after 2008, the only way they could generate any sort of recovery was with another set of asset bubbles. Their governments and financial sectors talked up anaemic recovery as an impressive comeback, propagating the myth that huge bubbles are a measure of economic health.

因此可见，是发达国家引起了这次的经济骚动——尤其是以金融为导向的英国和美国。这些国家在2008年拒绝了从根源上重整他们的经济架构之后，他们经济复苏的唯一出路就是制造另外一组的资产泡沫。而他们的政府以及金融部门却赞扬这次乏力的经济复苏为强有力的复苏，不断地宣传者巨大的经济泡沫是有利于经济健康的这个谎言。

 -------------译者：z8975623-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Whether or not the recent market turmoil leads to a protracted slide or a violent crash, it is proof that we have wasted the past seven years propping up a bankrupt economic model. Before things get any worse, we need to replace it with one in which the financial sector is made less complex and more patient, investment in the real economy is encouraged by fiscal and technological incentives, and measures are brought in to reduce inequality so that demand can be maintained without creating more debts.

无论是不是这次的市场动荡导致了持久的经济下滑或猛烈的经济冲撞，它都说明了一个问题--我们已经浪费了7年时光来支撑一个已经崩塌的经济模式。在事情变得更糟糕之前，我们应该把这个经济模式替换成具有更轻简、更具有耐心的金融部门的经济模式，这个模式应在财政及技术上鼓励实体投资；出台减少不对等现象的措施，因此可以在不增加债务的情况下保持需求。

None of these will be easy to implement, but we know what the alternative is – a permanent state of low growth, instability, and depressed living standards for the vast majority.

当然，以上所述都不容易落实，但是我们知道不这样做会产生的后果是：不断处于低增长的状态，不稳定，以及绝大部分人生活水平低下。


-------------译者：今天狗过桥-审核者：雅丽山大------------

GeorgeMeany 9m ago
Lots of interesting talks by Ha-Joon Chang on YouTube. Check out 'Economics, But Not as You Know It', delivered at LSE last May: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEVLkX0SSug

张夏准在油土鳖上说的话非常有趣。可以去看看伦敦政治经济学院去年5月讲座”经济学，却不如你所知“（视频内容就是张夏准的一场讲座，视频在油土鳖上，推荐神奇Xskywalk欣赏）

NOSuddenMovements 10m ago
Bearing in mind our recent deals with China, particularly on nuclear energy provision, I would like to see this analysis expanded to take into account the UK current account deficit. There are so many variables there and potential attempts at a remedy (depending on how necessary you think a remedy is) that I can't help thinking that, with the above suggestion that China could be a scapegoat, either something very clever or something very silly has just happened. It's beyond my poor brain to work it all out.

将我们同中国最近的交易铭记于心，特别是核能供给方面的交易，我希望看到这个分析扩展到考虑英国经常账户的赤字。在一个补救办法里有太多的变数和潜在的尝试（取决于你认为一个补救办法有多必要）让我禁不住地想，有了上述的建议中国可能成为一个替罪羊，不是非常聪明的就是非常愚蠢的事刚刚发生。这已经超过我可怜的小脑瓜的理解范围了。

JingBrit 22m ago
Spot on.
But does the public have the patience, resilience and stamina to deal with the protracted pain of a long restructuring process? Which politician is going to sell that solution? All I see are people demanding immediate solutions, usually ones that involve confiscating money from the rich.

完全正确。
但是公众是否有耐心，适应力和毅力来忍受一场长期的结构重组过程中旷日持久的疼痛呢？哪一个政治家会接受这种解决办法？我所看到的是人们要求即时的解决方案，通常这些方案都涉及从富人那里没收钱财。

 -------------译者：今天狗过桥-审核者：crzll9403------------

NotFobbedOff 25m ago
Yes and no. 
What is written about the US and UK economies is perfectly true, QE and cheap money have fuelled asset bubbles and growth is both fragile and not sustainable.
 That does not mean that what is happening in China doesn't matter. The transition from an export led economy to a more balanced model is not going well and there are enormous pools of debt at the Provincial government level and within the banking system which as well as looking very shaky is also shrouded in secrecy. In the last 7 years, China's economic management has been every bit as bad as that in the west.

既正确又错误
关于美国和英国的经济的部分写的完全正确，量化宽松和廉价的资金助长了经济增长和资产泡沫，这种方式既脆弱又不可持续。
这并不意味着在中国发生事情就无伤大雅。从一个出口导向型的经济向一个更平衡的模式转变过程并不理想，而且在政府层面和银行系统有着巨额的债务，既不稳定又不透明。在过去七年里，中国的经济管理就像西方的经济管理一样糟糕。（这一句念出来要断气）

NoSuddenMovements  NotFobbedOff 6m ago
Or the shrouds of secrecy could mean that it's playing the best game of them all. It is after all the newcomer to the poker game of capitalism and retains its fondness for market interference far more than the West has ever experienced.

不透明或许意味着他们在玩着最好游戏。毕竟作为新参加这次资本主义扑克比赛的选手，他对市场干预的喜爱程度是西方从来不曾有过的。

-------------译者：今天狗过桥-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

tater 30m ago
No mention by Ha-Joon Chang that his recommendations for the UK economy correspond closely with the economic policy being developed by the Labour party under Corbyn.

张夏准没有提及的是他给英国经济提供的建议和科尔宾领导下的工党所制定的经济政策相呼应。

bigishwilly 49m ago
Hits the nail on the head pretty much.

基本切中要害

F.A. Hutchison 1h ago
The Rothchilds and bankers control these cycles, and make money either way.

罗斯柴尔德家族和银行家们控制了这些周期，并通过这些方式创造财富。

worried 1h ago
dear worried..please read to the end of atls before mouthing off. OK? Tks.

亲（worried不是评论的本人吗？理解不能），请看完文章在说话，好吗？谢谢。

PollitoIngles 1h ago
George's Marvelous Medicine - hic!

《小乔治的神奇魔药》——呃！

-------------译者：今天狗过桥-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Triple750  worried 1h ago
You're not alone in thinking that

 你不是唯一这么想的人（天涯体：你不是一个人）
 
evaelbee537 1h ago
Agree - QE was a compensation policy - it restored wealth to the wealthy . Economic growth
achieved through manipulation of housing market creates illusion of restored wealth to house owners encouraging spending/borrowing/ accumulation of personal debt - against inflated asset that Government now cannot allow to fall. Trapped in a bubble of its own making - if it bursts another debt crisis is inevitable. Chancellor Osborne is in deep trouble on many economic fronts.

同意，量化宽松是一个补偿政策——它恢复了富人的财富。通过对房地产市场的操纵实现了经济增长，创造了财富恢复的假象以鼓励房屋拥有者们支出/借贷/积累个人债务——反对资产过度膨胀，政府现在不能允许下跌。
深陷自己所制造的泡沫之中——如果破裂，另一场债务危机不可避免—。财政大臣奥斯本在多个经济层面上都深陷麻烦。

-------------译者：今天狗过桥-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

NoSuddenMovements  Banditolobster 1h ago
ONS figures from 2013 show US and the EU close together over 20% and China on 12%. Just use Google.

英国统计局2013年的数据显示美国和欧盟贸易额超过20%而中国占12%。用谷歌查一下。  
 
VengefulRevenant  Banditolobster 51m ago
The eurozone is not the EU.

 欧元区并不是欧盟。 
 
Banditolobster  VengefulRevenant 50m ago
Ah I misread that thanks.

啊，我看错了，谢谢。 

-------------译者：今天狗过桥-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

irreverentnurse  Ubermensch1 2h ago
well said. It is all a delusion built by the elite so we can be exploited. The only pockets it affects are those of the workers, whether it goes up or down, we pay. They know the price of everything and the value of nothing.

说得好。 这一切都是精英们制造的幻想，导致我们被骗。财产受到影响的只有工人们，无论它上升还是下降，我们来买单。他们知道一切的价格却不知道价值（形容Cynics，愤世嫉俗者）。

PapersNotInOrder  Ubermensch1 1h ago
..and yet the cost of technology and a wide assortion of labour saving devices has become within reach of ever more people.
Need keeps you alive, but it is blind to the future.

然而至今，技术成本和广泛配置的节省劳动力的设备已经影响到越来越多的人。
需要让你活着，却盲目的面对未来。
 
JingBrit  Ubermensch1 13m ago
Too many people seem to think only the rich are greedy.
Most people are greedy.
A few are financially successful.
The greed of the less successful is manifest in their demands to confiscate the wealth of the rich and use it to provide public services for themselves.
They try to disguise their greed by denouncing inequality, as if equality was inherently right and inequality inherently wrong.

太多的人看起来认为只有富人是贪婪的。
所有人都是贪婪的。
一部分人经济上是成功的。
不成功的人的贪婪体现在他们要求没收富人的财富来为他们自己的公共服务买单。
他们试图通过谴责不平等来掩盖他们的贪婪，就像平等天生就对，不平等天生就错误一样。

-------------译者：今天狗过桥-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

hugin1 2h ago
Ha-Joon Chang...... the voice of reason and common sense here on the Guardian. And not for the first time. Keep them coming Mr. Chang.... the world is ready for and needs what you write!

 张夏准......卫报上充满理智和常识的声音。并且还不是第一次。多写这样的好文章，张先生......这个世界准备好需要你的作品。

MehKybosh 2h ago
I just try to borrow fuck all, aside from the mortgage. No outstanding balance on the credit card. I recommend it.

我只是尝试把一切都TM借了，除了抵押贷款。信用卡上没有结余。我推荐它。（前面那是书吗，我查不到）

Luciano Giampaglia  MehKybosh 2h ago
Given the high cost of renting most young family's today do not have such a care free option.
Washing machine breaks, well there's no extra income and your kids need clothes, debt.
Car breaks, parents haven't had a rise in 5 years, they live pay check to pay check due to the high costs of living and low income. Debt.
Dads one of the now 4 million self employed earning less than 20k and breaks his ancle. No sick pay and doesn't earn enough to save anything. Debt.
Your attitude is an example of ignorance and naked individualism.

 鉴于租用的高花费，大多数的年轻家庭现今不注重自由选择。
洗衣机坏了，但是他们没有额外的收入，并且你们的孩子需要衣服，产生了债务。
车坏了，父母收入5年没有涨了，他们因为生活的高花费和低收入成为了月关族，产生了债务。
父亲是4百万自顾人员之一，收入少于20000。现在他的脚后跟受伤了，没有病假工资而且没有余钱储蓄。产生了债务。
你的态度正是无知和赤裸裸的个人主义的典型例子。