英国：为什么我们要对中国的经济放缓心存感激 [英国媒体]

Why we should bethanking China for slowing down

为什么我们要对中国的经济放缓心存感激



The recent perils of notunderstanding the Chinese stock market have taken centre stage, and meaningfuleconomic data points have been ignored, says LGBR Capital's Fen Sung.

最近不理解中国股票市场的危险性又成了关注中心，而真正有价值的数字却被忽视了。——LGBR的专家Fen Sung说道。

Images of farmers andhousewives losing all their savings appearing on the internet, led to inaccuratefears of the dying Chinese consumer.

在网络上，农民和主妇家财散尽、一无所有的画面频频出现，使得人们对中国消费者产生了相当失实的判断，竟觉得对方已然时日无多。

In actual fact, lessthan 15% of the average household's financial assets are invested in the stockmarket, which helps explain why the recent roller coaster market has not had adramatic effect on China's consumption figures.

可实际上，中国的中等家庭资产仅有不到15%投到了股票市场。这也能解释为什么中国近期过山车一般股票市场并没有造成消费指数的剧烈波动。

Currently at around 200million, and predicted to swell to over 600 million in just ten years' time,China's middle class will propel the most populous nation to become the nextconsumption powerhouse. China's future middle class will likely be larger thanthe combined populations of the US and Japan.

中国的中产阶级现在已经有2亿，据预测在未来10年就能涨到6亿。他们将会成为将这个人口大国提升为下一个消费动力源。未来的中国中产阶级的规模，很可能比日本和美国的人口加起来还要多。

Why do we ignore China'sconsumption growth? Perhaps the perils of Glencore have not shown China in afavourable light, but surely the writing was on the wall.

我们为何又忽略了中国的消费增长？或许但看嘉能可的状况会让人觉得中国行情不好，（译注：由于中国对大宗商品需求放缓,主营矿物原油类商品的嘉能可曾利润大幅下滑。）但未来的乐观走势不是可以预想的吗？

Less growth and more opportunity but no hard landing forChina yet

增长放缓，机遇增多，绝非硬着陆

China is already a$10trn economy and if it continued to race away at double digits growth rates,where do you think global inflation and interest rates would be now? We shouldbe thanking China for slowing down.  

中国已经是一个10万亿美元的经济体了。要是它还以两位数的速度增长，想想看全球通胀和利率现在已经变成什么样子了？我们倒应该感谢中国，终于放缓了。

Returning to consumption– why are we not talking about China's 39% increase in online sales in thefirst half of this year?

回到消费这个问题上来，为什么我们一直没提到中国在今年的上半年就创造了39%的网络交易增长幅度？

China has already becomethe world's largest e-commerce market. With the affordability of smartphones inChina, the number of internet users utilising this medium has now exceededaccessing the internet via PC; a major change in consumption pattern.

中国已成为世界上最大的电子商贸市场。由于智能手机在中国已成为一个大众都能买得起的商品，通过手机上网的人数已经超过了通过电脑联网的人数，这是一种消费模式的重大变化。

Tangential plays on thistheme can often be where more interesting opportunities can be found. Trying toguestimate who will win the next smartphone war in China can be painful:remember HTC? Technology infrastructure, online payment, advertising, or eveninternet security can all play on this theme.

这种时候，有时候就有人要问啦：“在哪儿能找到更多的机会呀？”如果是猜测中国智能手机战场上下一个王者是谁，那可有点蛋疼——还记得HTC吗？总而言之，配套科技，在线支付，广告乃至网络安全都将成为这一命题里的关键因素。

Finally, it is not justconsumption within China. Currently only around 5% of Chinese people hold apassport, imagine the number of passport holders in ten years' time. Why do youthink Fosun bought a stake in Thomas Cook?

最后，中国的消费可不仅限于中国。现在还只有5%的中国人拥有护照。想想看在未来这个数字会暴增到多少？你觉得为什么复星集团要收购托马斯·库克集团的股份？

Fen Sung is a Chinaproduct specialist at LGBR Capital

作者Fen Sung是LGBR Capital的中国产品专家